Shameful? Disgraceful? Or Both?

In case you missed it, over roughly the last seven days the convicted felon and 47th president of the United States reversed 80 years of U.S. foreign policy that preserved our security and prosperity at home and allowed the world to enjoy the benefits of a largely peaceful framework for international relations. You may have been too busy following the antics of King Trump (so self designated yesterday) and President Musk as they decimate the federal civil service across the country from the Gulf of Mexico to Denali, Alaska. (Contrary to popular belief, only about 13% of the federal work force is in the Washington DC metro area, 83% is spread around the country and 2% is overseas).

In his incessant effort to please Russian President Vladimir Putin, Trump and his kakistocracy betrayed Ukraine, salvaged Russia from the isolation it deserves, signaled our withdrawal from NATO and encouraged China, Russia and Iran to expand their influence and control. That’s a lot — let’s break it down.

As we approach the third anniversary of the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, a quick reminder as to the chain of events is in order. When the Soviet Union collapsed, about a third of the Soviet’s nuclear weapons were in Ukraine which emerged as an independent state. Under the 1991 security guarantees of Russia, the U.S. and the United Kingdom, Ukraine’s borders were recognized and guaranteed in exchange for relinquishing those nuclear weapons. After Putin emerged as the leader of the “new” Russia, he worked continuously to promote pro-Russian leadership in Ukraine. As a gateway to the rest of Europe, Ukraine was caught between pro-Russian and pro-western European influences. In 2014, Ukrainians revolted and drove out the pro-Russian leader Victor Yanukovych. That prompted Putin to invade Crimea, a part of Ukraine, and annex it. Putin also encouraged and supplied pro-Russian forces in eastern Ukraine to take and hold territory. A simmering war continued there until early 2022 when the full scale Russian invasion began. Note that the quasi-war in Ukraine was underway during Trump’s first term. Also remember that Vololdymyr Zelensky defeated a pro-Russian politician for president in April of 2020. That July, Trump called President Zelensky to push for an investigation into Hunter Biden and his father Joe Biden who Trump correctly expected to be his opponent for president. President Zelensky refused, Trump withheld money appropriated for Ukraine, and the situation led to Trump’s first impeachment.

Strike one against Ukraine. Trump does hold grudges.

During his 2020 campaign, Trump declared that he would end the war in Ukraine on “day one.” Sure. Now he sees it as his mission. However, he is not trying to solve it on terms favorable to Ukraine, but rather to please his old buddy Vladimir Putin. Reportedly, Trump and Putin talked for about 90 minutes last week, the first official diplomatic contact between the U.S. and Russia since the invasion three years ago and afterwards, everything changed.

Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth gave a speech in Europe during an international conference on Ukraine where he clearly stated that it was “unrealistic” for Ukraine to expect to return to its pre-2014 borders, and that it “is not realistic” for Ukraine to join NATO. So much for the art of the deal when before the negotiating even starts, one side concedes to the other everything that they want. Additionally Hegseth (is he really the Secretary of Defense?) told our European allies that the U.S. would no longer safeguard the security of Europe as the U.S. “will no longer tolerate an imbalanced relationship” with our European allies. Indeed, if the Europeans deployed troops into Ukraine to provide for guarantees to protect Ukrainian sovereignty under a future deal, the U.S. would not consider it a NATO mission and therefore there would be no Article Five guarantees from the U.S. Article Five is the key to NATO’s effectiveness. It states that an attack on one member is considered an attack on all and that all members would respond militarily. Without that iron clad commitment from all members of NATO, the alliance is weakened, perhaps fatally weakened. Article Five has been invoked only once — by the U.S. following the attacks on September 11.

Vice President J.D. Vance, the embodiment of the Project 2025 playbook, then gave a speech during the annual Munich Security Conference — meeting to discuss Ukraine and NATO defense spending — that blasted and scolded our closest allies for allowing migration from the Middle East and Africa into Europe and claiming that they violated their democratic values by inhibiting free speech. What he was really attacking was the European’s efforts to counter misinformation, disinformation and outright lies perpetrated by one Elon Musk (yes that same guy) in an attempt to sway voters in several European elections to vote for the hard right parties in those countries. His speech came straight out of the Project 2025 playbook. To further insult our allies, Vance then met with the leader of the far right neo-Nazi German party Alternative fur Deutschland (AfD) rather than with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, A clear signal from the Trump administration as to their future vision and undisguised disdain for our allies.

While all of that was happening, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent met President Zelensky in Kyiv whose purpose, much to the Ukrainians surprise, was to demand that President Zelensky sign a document that gives fifty percent (about 500 million dollars) of Ukraine’s rare earth minerals to the U.S. When President Zelensky hesitated, Bessent gave him one hour to change his mind and sign or there would be repercussions. President Zelensky did not sign. The current status of this demand is unknown.

Strike two against Ukraine. Another grudge.

The U.S. then held bilateral meetings with Russia in Saudi Arabia (hmmm) about the war in Ukraine. This was a huge diplomatic achievement for Russia as the meeting was a sign that Russia “was back” – on an equal footing with the U.S. and once again a player on the international stage after years of isolation. Another victory for Russia in these negotiations. So far, Russia has given up nothing in return.

Oh yeah. Ukraine was not invited to the discussions about its future and neither were our European allies even though they obviously have a huge stake in the outcome.

Afterwards, President Zelensky opined that Trump was living in a “Russian disinformation bubble” and added that Ukraine was not for sale.

Strike three against Ukraine. Trump went ballistic.

In a series of public statements, Trump did what he does best. He lied and lied and lied. (Check his lies and the facts here.) Worst of all, he said that Ukraine started the war. Then he called President Zelensky a “moderately successful comedian” (ouch) who is now a “dictator.” Things went down hill from there. Trump is demanding that Ukraine take steps that fall completely within the Russian game plan to take over in Ukraine.

There are several possible scenarios playing out, none of them good for Ukraine or Europe or for our own national security and economic success. Trump is incapable of strategic thinking and only knows transactional relationships. Therefore one possibility is that, once again, Trump’s fragile ego and need to be respected, at any cost, is wounded. President Zelensky and European leaders have had, in his mind, a free ride for too long and now that he’s the new sheriff in town he wants instant respect and a lot of dollars coming to us (him). He simply cannot grasp the big picture that we benefit more from these alliances and our support of other democracies than it costs us. (See the destruction of the U.S. Agency for International Development that provided valuable support to our own national interests at very low cost. Not to mention the U.S. farmers and suppliers that sell the goods and services.)

A second possibility is that he actually believes that he alone can solve the war in Ukraine. He has always been enamored of Putin and here is Trump’s chance to show that he can deal with him. Of course, we all know that Putin is a master of manipulation. Trump doesn’t even know that he is being taken for a ride. If Putin gets what he wants in Ukraine, I fear for the Baltic states and Poland as they will be next on Putin’s list. And in the not so distant future. Remember that in a 2005 speech to the Russian people, Putin said that the collapse of the Soviet Union “was the greatest geo-political catastrophe of the [20th] century.” He is on a mission from God (literally if you read about him) to restore the Russian empire.

A third possibility is that Trump (well, those around him) have a geo-political vision that is in a way a reversion to the cold war. The “great powers” — U.S., Russia, China — divide up the world into spheres of influence. This would fit into his phantasmagoric ideas of annexing Canada, Greenland and Panama. It would also fit the vision of the Project 2025 folks and Musk and others that the world should be run by rich white men who create Christian white nationalist nations around the globe.

Whatever the motivation, the world is on notice that the United States is no longer the leader of the free world, or any world except the United States. Good luck everyone else. If Trump succeeds in giving Ukraine to Russia, it will mean hundreds of thousands of refugees pouring into western Europe (destabilizing them internally), cost thousands of lives, lead to arbitrary executions, torture and rape and eliminate a democracy and friend. It also gives Russia a green light for further territorial gains and lets China know that we will not protect Taiwan or any other Asian country.

It will be shameful and disgraceful. Not only does it undermine our long held and deeply cherished view of our role in the world and our ability to promote democracy but such actions will endanger our own security and prosperity. We will not be safe. So far, Trump has received nearly zero pushback from formerly respected leaders of the former Republican party. The world that we have cherished for eight decades will be gone and in its place will be a new world that would be impossible to imagine just a few months ago.