Immigration — MAGA Style
Posted: April 6, 2024 Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: border, Border Policy, illegal-immigration, Immigration, news, Politics, Posse Comitatus Act, Project 2025, Trump, Undocumented Immigrants Leave a comment“The Democrats say, ‘Please don’t call them animals. They’re humans.’ I said, ‘No, they’re not humans, they’re not humans, they’re animals.'”
“On day one, we will terminate every open border policy of the Biden Administration and begin the largest deportation in American history starting with all of the criminals pouring in. Our local police will tell us where they are.”
— Donald J. Trump, Green Bay Wisconsin on 2 April 2024 referring to immigrants
Unfortunately, by now we are, perhaps too much so, used to the vile rhetoric of the presumed Republican nominee for president. The problem is, it is not just rhetoric. He and his minions that will populate the cabinet of a second Trump Administration are serious about doing exactly what he says. It is not rhetoric, it is a plan of action. Stephen Miller, Trump’s former senior adviser in the first administration, is in line to assume another senior position in a second term and will support Trump’s authoritarian tendencies and push harsh immigration policies to end what he calls “the equity cult.” For those that think such talk is an exaggeration or a fiction created by the media, may I recommend some light reading in the form of the Project 2025 900 page policy book Mandate for Leadership: The Conservative Promise. Chapter Five addresses immigration and other Department of Homeland Security issues. As a reminder, Project 2025, under the leadership of the Heritage Foundation, lays out the “Playbook”, policy, personnel, and training for a MAGA take over of the federal government. It is no joke. In 2016, Trump and his supporters were ill-prepared to lead and did not have a deep group of supporters to place in key government positions. It will be different if there is a second time around.
Immigration is a legitimate issue. Democrats agree that measures must be adopted to ease tensions on the border and to better handle the influx of peoples from around the world. They even worked with Republicans to come up with, according to both Democrats and Republicans, the most comprehensive immigration reform measure in the U.S. in at least forty years. Trump said no and his MAGA acolytes shut it down. They are not interested in solving the problem, merely exploiting it as a campaign issue. They have their own plan.
When Trump and his loyal henchmen talk about “the largest deportation in American history” what do they really mean? He and his future government officials look to the 1954 U.S. government deportation effort known as Operation Wetback as their guiding light. That is not the slang term for it, that is the official name of the operation. One can already tell that if a racial slur is involved, it is probably not going to be an easygoing methodology for returning immigrants to their native lands. To date, it is the largest deportation effort in U.S. history involving as many as 1.2 million people (the exact number is unclear as some people were deported more than once). The intent was to remove Mexican immigrants from the U.S. through wide-scale roundups of people, many of whom legally entered the U.S. and some who were actually U.S. citizens, and loading them on buses, trains, planes and ships to unceremoniously dump them in Mexico — often in areas totally unfamiliar to those being deported. It is a lot easier to do this if one believes that Mexicans are “not humans, they’re animals.” At the time of Operation Wetback, Mexicans were portrayed as “dirty, disease-bearing and irresponsible” here to “steal jobs” from Americans. Sound familiar?
The genesis of the operation is a bit complicated. During World War II, the U.S. suffered from a labor shortage as our citizens joined the military and worked in war production factories to stave off fascism. In 1942, the U.S. and Mexico agreed to implement the U.S.-Mexico Farm Labor Program also known as Operation Bracero. In exchange for guaranteed wages and humane treatment, farm workers were legally allowed into the country on temporary visas. Between 1942 and 1964 an estimated 4.2 Mexican workers entered the country legally to work in the Operation. Unfortunately, but still the norm today, some employers did not want to pay the agreed upon (higher) wages under the program, especially in Texas. Conversely, the Mexican government did not want their laborers working in Texas due to the deep discrimination against, and ill-treatment of, Mexican citizens, so Texas was not included in the Bracero program. (Most of the legal workers went to California.) However, Texas did import significant numbers of Mexican workers — illegally and at significantly lower wages — to which the federal and state governments turned a blind eye for many years. (The undocumented immigrants were said to have swum across the Rio Grande, thus the derogatory term “wetbacks” which came to be used as a racial epithet for any Latino worker.)
By 1953 the economic aspects of Texas farmers paying their workers substantially less than those in other states created an unfair advantage. Besides, many Americans were tired of being “over run” by Mexican immigrants whether they were legal or not. Initially the plan called for the National Guard to be used to conduct massive round ups of people (also what Stephen Miller wants to do in 2025). President Eisenhower rejected that plan citing the Posse Comitatus Act which precludes the military from civil law enforcement. In 1954, the Border Patrol under Harlon B. Carter and the Immigration and Naturalization Service under General Joseph Swing used their own agents in military style raids to sweep farms and factories and other locations employing the workers. Many were kept in the desert in wire fenced “concentration camps” while awaiting deportation. Some had their heads shaved — supposedly for hygiene purposes but really to humiliate those in captivity. Lives were uprooted, families separated and some Mexican workers died under the conditions they suffered after being rounded up and held awaiting deportation.
This is the model that MAGA Republicans promise to emulate — nay, exceed — as they promise to round up “the animals” and conduct the “largest deportation in American history.” When asked in a 2016 CNN interview if he thought that Operation Wetback was a “shameful chapter in American history” Trump replied that “some people do, some people think it was a very effective chapter. It was very successful, everyone said. So, I mean, that’s the way it is.” It most emphatically should not be the way it is.
Israel – Hamas War
Posted: March 28, 2024 Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: Gaza, Hamas, Israel, Middle East, news, Palestine, Palestinians, Saudi Arabia, Two State Solution, War, War Aims 2 CommentsThe war between Israel and Hamas rages on as it passes the six month mark. Starting with the horrific and brutal attack into Israel on 7 October 2023, it has been a ferocious conflict. Now is the time to assess the policies involved and to reevaluate what Israeli war aims may be.
In so doing, two underlying assertions are necessary. First, Israel had and continues to have, every right to defend itself and to respond to the terrible attack that killed over 1200 innocent Israelis in October in order to preclude future attacks. Second, criticism of Israel’s government or Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s policies are not in themselves anti-Semitic, just as criticizing President Biden’s policies does not make anyone anti-American.
As the war continues with much of Gaza destroyed and approximately 1.7 million Palestinians displaced, no clear war aims have been articulated by Prime Minister Netanyahu. As announced to date, their goals are the destruction of Hamas, the infrastructure supporting their rule and terrorist activities, and the release of the hostages. These are not political solutions. Killing every member of Hamas is not possible. Indeed one could argue that current Israeli actions in Gaza are only ensuring another generation of pro-Hamas fighters, or at least anti-Israeli fighters. The only way to ensure that every member of Hamas is eliminated is to kill every male over the age of twelve.
Hamas war aims are simple and are the mirror image of Israel’s. Kill every Israeli and destroy the Israeli state. They have no means to achieve their war aims. Israel does.
Israeli Defense Force (IDF) spokesmen claim that they have “dismantled” twenty of the estimated twenty four Hamas battalions in Gaza. Assuming this is true, dismantled is not the same as eliminated. The command and control function of the organization is clearly degraded, if not destroyed, but guerrilla operations can continue indefinitely with groups of four or five fighters using hit and run tactics. From a fighting perspective, as I have explained in other, earlier posts, the loser decides when the war is over. If the enemy does not stop fighting, then the war continues, even if by conventional standards one side “won.” The IDF does not give detailed information on troop movements but has said that only two divisions of the IDF remain in Gaza, down from the original five that attacked into Gaza at the war’s start. All of the reserve units are said to have stood down and gone home — partly because those forces are no longer needed and partly because the economy of Israel was suffering with so many workers away from their jobs. A casual look at the situation in Gaza today indicates that the Israelis have won, but yet the war continues.
Indeed, Prime Minister Netanyahu plans on expanding the war by attacking Rafah, a city in the south of Gaza that is the primary location of the displaced Gazans from the north, especially from Gaza City, which will be discussed further below.
Although IDF troops on the ground are significantly fewer, air operations continue at a heavy rate. Bombs and drone strikes are a part of life in Gaza every day. Exact numbers of casualties are difficult to confirm as the IDF does not supply certified numbers of either their own or Palestinian losses and the Gaza Health Ministry — the source providing the number of Palestinian casualties — cannot be fully relied upon. That said, the international consensus is that over 32,000 Palestinians have died so far in the war with roughly 100,000 wounded, mostly civilians. There does not seem to be much consideration for collateral damage (civilians killed or wounded) in the indiscriminate bombing of areas such as Gaza City. The IDF is a modern, well-equipped, well-trained force. In the early stages of the war perhaps it was necessary to destroy civilian infrastructure to attack the Hamas infrastructure, especially Hamas tunnels that are said by the IDF to run for 350 to 450 miles under Gaza, using schools, mosques and other civilian structures as nodes. The current situation appears to preclude the need for mass bombings as a means to their ends and more pinpoint targeting could reduce the number of civilian casualties. So far, that does not seem to be happening, raising concerns in the U.S. and elsewhere that the Israelis are not just hunting down Hamas, but that they are punishing Palestinians in Gaza for “allowing” Hamas to carry out its terrorist attacks. Such indiscriminate attacks also calls into question the status of Israeli hostages in Gaza. Mass bombing puts the hostages in danger. One stated war aim is to recover all of the remaining 134 hostages (some of whom are known to already be dead), and yet only two have been rescued by the IDF. Three hostages escaped and tried to surrender to the IDF but were shot and killed while approaching IDF positions. (An additional 105 hostages were released in a prisoner exchange last November, four were unilaterally released by Hamas.) Are the hostages also collateral damage?
Prime Minister Netanyahu publicly stated that the IDF was preparing to attack Rafah, on the Egyptian border, to eliminate remaining Hamas forces. Rafah has 1.4 million Palestinians living there, many are refugees from the north living in dire circumstances in tents. The U.S. position is that Israel cannot attack Rafah without creating an even greater humanitarian crisis and any military operations must wait until a plan is put forward as to what to do about the people living there. Recently, Mr. Netanyahu agreed to send members of his government to Washington D.C. to explain the plan to the U.S. (That trip was canceled over a disagreement about U.S. votes in the U.N. Security Council calling for a cease fire, but it was just announced that now the trip is back on.) The seeming disregard for the plight of the Palestinians is the source of a growing rift between the U.S. and Israel and the cause for the growing number of protests around the U.S. in support of the Palestinians. (Unfortunately, there are protesters that are ignorant of the situation in the Middle East, its complications, and the fact that Hamas started the war. Sadly, there are also some folks that are just plain bigots.)
Israel has every right to root out Hamas to ensure the survival of Israel and to protect its citizens from further terrorist attacks. The issue is more a question of how it should be done. As a democracy concerned with human rights and as a full citizen of the international community, Israel must also consider the plight of the innocent children, women and men that are not members or supporters of Hamas but are suffering greatly from a lack of shelter, food, potable water and medicine. That should be part of their plan as well. To date, it is not, other than to allow some (too few) aid trucks into the Gaza strip as well as some air dropped supplies, also ineffective compared to what is required.
There is a growing rift between the Israeli and U.S. governments that I do not find surprising. Israel absolutely depends on U.S. political and military support. Much of their military equipment and ammunition comes from America. U.S. policy since President Truman is to support Israel and that policy of support has only grown stronger with time. That does not mean, contrary to some opinions, that Israel is a puppet or client state of the U.S. Our leaders do try to influence Israeli leaders but in the end, Israel is going to do whatever they want to do, whether or not it coincides with U.S. policy. Some of their decisions actually run counter to U.S. desires and can in certain circumstances actually hurt U.S. interests. Period. Blaming the Biden Administration or any other entity for what Israel is doing in Gaza and calling for them to stop it is not realistic. They are going to do whatever they want. As a result, some in government believe that we support Israel to a fault — arguing that support to Israel is critical, but not when it also undermines our own national interests.
Complicating the political elements of this crisis is that Prime Minister Netanyahu heads a far right government with members of his cabinet pushing for total Israeli control of Gaza and the West Bank — where even as the war in Gaza continues Israelis are settling in and pushing Palestinians out. Mr. Netanyahu will seemingly do anything to satisfy his far right coalition and thus remain in power. Prior to the outbreak of war, many Israelis were openly protesting his policies as being too extreme. His support throughout the population was rapidly eroding. Mr. Netanyahu also faces probable criminal indictments when he leaves office — an incentive to stay. Israelis will support him while the war continues, but it is widely expected that when elections are finally held, he will be voted out of office. If one were cynical, it could be that the war is good for Mr. Netanyahu’s personal fortunes.
So back to the original question. What are Israel’s war objectives? Put in other terms, what is the desired end state of the war? What does the solution look like?
The answer is nearly universal in the international community. The only way to reach a safe and secure status quo for both Palestine and Israel is a two state solution. A safe and secure Israeli state and a safe and secure Palestinian state encompassing Gaza and the West Bank. It will take years, billions of dollars and a lot of finesse to reach that point, but in the end, the U.S., Europe and much of the rest of the world see it as the only way to achieve a permanent. long term solution.
Prime Minister Netanyahu and his coalition right wing ultra-nationalist government roundly reject a two state solution.
On one level, it is understandable that Israelis would be skeptical that having a stable, sustainable, productive Palestinian neighbor would ever be achievable. Decades of experience tell them otherwise. On another level, those right wing ultra-nationalists in his government see Gaza and the West Bank as ripe for Israeli expansion and settlement. To them, the only way to secure the area is to occupy it themselves. While Mr. Netanyahu has not stated such an intent, he has indicated that Israeli forces will be in Gaza for some time to come. No other long term end state or political solution has come forward from his government. Israel may be in Gaza for years to come. The question is whether or not they put settlers there and turn it into a de facto Israeli satellite as they are doing in the West Bank. First, where do the Gazans go? Secondly, such a move would likely break U.S. and European unqualified support for Israel. Not abandonment, but it will cause a significant strain on our relationship and it will be irrevocably altered.
The Biden Administration in conjunction with our friends and allies has been working hard over these last months to resolve the long term tensions in the region. Many nations are willing to help to rebuild Gaza and to promote stability. Most importantly, there are increasing indications that Gulf Arab states along with Saudi Arabia are willing to step up to provide the money needed to rebuild and to support a new (as yet undefined) Palestinian government to replace the current Palestinian Authority that nominally holds power but has no practical way to govern. To get the Arab states actively involved in a peaceful solution will be a game changer.
Now is the time to lock it all in. A coalition of the willing can be put together to rebuild Gaza, provide security against a resurgent Hamas and provide increased security for all involved. It could be the dawn of a new age in the region. It could mean a new relationship between Israel and its neighbors. Israel could find itself allied with Saudi Arabia as a counter to block Iranian adventurism. There are lots of possibilities that would have been inconceivable in the recent past.
It will take years of patient negotiations and small, confidence building steps. It will take billions of dollars. It will not be easy as there are many bad actors that prefer the chaos and bitter conflict. None-the-less, it is in everyone’s best interest to try.
The Cavalry Will Not Get Here In Time
Posted: March 17, 2024 Filed under: Uncategorized 1 CommentDuring this past week, both President Joe Biden and ex-President Donald J. Trump became their respective party’s presumptive nominees for president. Both have accumulated enough delegates from the primaries already completed to clinch the nominations at this summer’s political conventions.
Get over it. It happened. There is no wishing it away. There is no changing it. Now we have to deal with it. Although the election is still about eight months away and a lot can happen in that period of time, all of us need to assume that one or the other of them will be elected (actually, reelected).
What makes this election different from any I have experienced, and I would venture, different than any since the Civil War, is that this is not the typical “horse race” based on policies or popularity. This is not even a referendum on our current president as so many elections in the past have been. This is purely and simply a decision for our nation as to whether we want to continue as a democratic republic or become a fiefdom for a wannabe autocrat in the nature of Hungary or even Russia. Yes. I truly believe it is that bad and I do not consider such statements to be hyperbolic or a symptom of Trump Derangement Syndrome (TDS). Every day that Trump is campaigning or otherwise publicly speaking he tells us that in fact, he will be an autocrat. He publicly states that he will be a dictator on day one.
Some pundits may declare that our political parties have been “polarized” for the last 30 years or more and that we are just seeing more of the same. That may be a correct statement for previous elections, but today our country is not polarized. There is one party that is trying to govern, a bit left of center but more mainstream than not, and one party that is just crazy, dysfunctional, and radicalized. For those keeping score at home, more and more “normal” Republicans are retiring at the end of their terms or quitting before their terms are over because they cannot take the MAGA dysfunction and radicalization driving the Congress today. The latest is Republican Congressman Ken Buck (CO) who just announced that he is leaving at the end of of next week. Representative Buck is one of the most conservative Republicans in the House and according to his statements, his last straws were the impeachment of Secretary of Homeland Defense Alejandro Mayorkas and the continued attempt to impeach President Biden, neither effort includes any evidence of wrongdoing to support impeachment under the Constitution. (You may have noted that the Republicans’ two top “witnesses” against President Biden have been disgraced. One fled the country as he was about to be arrested for various financial crimes and the other was arrested for being an agent of Russian intelligence. You just can’t make this stuff up.)
President Biden currently is running behind Trump in national polls. Two things come to mind. One, national polls really are not relevant because the elections this century have revolved around five or six key states. Whoever wins those, wins the election. Since President George H.W. Bush won election in 1988, Republicans have only won the popular vote for president once — President George W. Bush in 2004. (The Electoral College in action!) Thus those states take on enormous importance and tend to be the focus of campaigns for both parties. Second, at this point in time, people are going to express their unhappiness about anything in their lives. When pollsters ask them about their presidential choices at this point, most voters are expressing their opinions about their perceived quality of life — which is important and politicians need to respond to that — but it is not necessarily who they will actually vote for in the election. In my view, when it comes time to mark their ballots, given all that they know about Trump now and how much they will observe about his maniacal behavior in the months to come, more people will vote for Mr. Biden than for Trump.
In a free and fair election.
Which we have no guarantee will happen. In 2020 Trump and the men and women in his gang tried their hardest to stage a coup through many avenues of attack, culminating in the storming of the capitol. Their intention was clear — negate the results of a free and fair election and keep Trump in power. There is no reason to believe that they will not try again — probably through voter suppression, intimidation and outright violence — and now they have all of their lessons learned from their first try. At a rally in Ohio on 16 March Trump proclaimed that “if I don’t get elected its gonna be a bloodbath. That’s the least of it. It’s going to be a bloodbath for the country.”
The guardrails of our democracy held in 2020, even if only barely. The brave Republican men and women in office that saved the day then have largely been replaced by stooges loyal to Trump. More troubling, those of us that thought the judiciary would work in accordance with the laws of our land to hold Trump accountable in a timely way are going to be sadly mistaken. There are lots of fingers that can be pointed in lots of directions, starting with Attorney General Merrick Garland who delayed and delayed (presumably hoping it would just all go away) authorizing an investigation into the lawless behavior of Trump. Once the investigations began and grand juries returned indictments, the delay game began. And Trump is winning that game.
If any of us were innocent of crimes, then I presume we would want to quickly go before a judge in a fair trial and clear our names. Not with Trump. To date, I have not noticed that his legal teams are arguing against the facts, presenting alternative explanations or otherwise trying to prove his innocence. Instead, it is a constant stream of motions, many of them legally dubious, that drag on and on. The play is simple. Delay until Trump is elected and then he will pardon himself or otherwise create a Constitutional crisis (and probably an actual physical crisis) if the courts continue to pursue holding him accountable. And so far, even as I understand that everyone has a right to contest the charges against them, the judiciary has allowed him to get away with it. Under the Speedy Trial Act of 1974, as amended in 1979, with exceptions, a trial is to start no earlier than 30 days after an indictment and no later than 70 days. Trump and his lawyers have managed to work around this, seemingly at will as judges bend over backwards to appear unbiased, even as you or I would not be afforded the same leeway. Trump is using their efforts to appear fair to his advantage in the way that a mob boss would employ all elements at his disposal to intimidate witnesses, judges and other members of the court.
Remember that the right to a speedy trial works both ways. The defendant cannot be held without the processes moving apace but equally important is the fact that the public deserves to have a timely and fair trial. It is vital that voters know before they cast a ballot whether or not one of the candidates is a convicted felon responsible for trying to prevent the peaceful transfer of power after an election.
In particular, the cases surrounding the events of 6 January 2021 and Trump’s keeping highly classified documents in his beach club in Florida — and trying to obstruct the investigation into that — are moving baffling slow. Starting in December of last year the Supreme Court had the opportunity to review Trump’s claim of absolute immunity. Finally taking the case, they will not hear arguments until 25 April — the last day of the current session. That means that it is likely that a ruling on the claim will not be handed down until June or July. Even then they may rule in a way that returns the case to a lower court for further review. Should the Supreme Court clearly rule this summer, it is still increasingly difficult to get the trial completed before voting starts, given the time that the presiding judge intends to give the Trump team to prepare their defense.
Consider also that in the recent Trump v Anderson case, the Supreme Court eviscerated Article 3 of the 14th Amendment that prohibits an office holder that took an oath to defend the Constitution from holding future office if they “engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the United States.” On a 9-0 vote they decided that no single state can invoke the amendment and keep someone off the ballot. Fair enough. But digging deeper the vote was actually 5-4 as the majority opinion stated that only a two-thirds vote in the Congress could prohibit an insurrectionist from running for office. To most people, including four Supreme Court justices, that was over reach and not in keeping with the original intent of the amendment. Apparently, it is okay to foment an insurrection to keep oneself in power and then run again to try and do it again, unless Congress overwhelming says no. And oh, by the way, the Supreme Court expedited that hearing and the decision, unlike with the immunity issue.
In Florida the judge presiding over the documents case in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of Florida — Judge Aileen Cannon — is taking an unusually long time to move that case forward given that most legal experts opine that the case is the most straightforward of all of those for which Trump was indicted. It is becoming increasingly apparent that she is slow rolling the trial until after the election. (I might speculate that since she has been ruling in Trump’s favor on various motions for over a year now, and since she was appointed by Trump shortly before he left office, it might be that she is auditioning for the Supreme Court under a second Trump term.)
In numerous movies in 1950’s and 60’s westerns it became a cliche that as the beleaguered settlers were running out of ammunition and about to be overrun and killed, bugles would sound and the cavalry would come riding over the hill to save the day. When it comes to holding Trump accountable for his actions and to know whether he is a convicted felon or not before voting, there will be no cavalry riding over the hill to save the day. Not when it comes to the judiciary and not when it comes to Congress. Only we the voters will be able to save our democracy.
Party Over Country
Posted: February 8, 2024 Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: Border Security, Donald Trump, Immigration, Impeachment, NATO, Russia, Ukraine, United States Constitution Leave a comment“…former President Trump has become citizen Trump…”
–U.S. Court of Appeals for the DC circuit ruling rejecting Trump’s presidential immunity claim
Although the Court of Appeals categorically denied Trump’s claims of “absolute immunity” as a former president, a decision expected to be appealed to the Supreme Court, he continues to act as if he is above the law and continues to try and destroy our country for his own political and monetary gain. His latest power play is the trashing of a significant bipartisan bill put together by Senate, White House and Department of Homeland Security (DHS) negotiators that provides much needed immigration reforms, beefs up security on our southern border and sends crucial aid to Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan and humanitarian assistance in war torn parts of the world.
The 118 billion dollar Emergency National Security Supplemental Appropriations Act, primarily negotiated by Senators James Lankford (R-OK), Chris Murphy (D-CONN) and Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ), was touted as the best border security bill to come out of Congress in decades. It died a shameful death in just over 24 hours. Here is what that means.
In October 2023 President Joe Biden asked for supplemental appropriations to assist Ukraine in its existential war with Russia and to bolster Israel in their war with Hamas and to help Taiwan defend against Chinese aggression. The Republican Speaker of the House Mike Johnson (MAGA-LA) flatly refused to consider any aid overseas without first taking meaningful steps to secure the border. Multiple Senate Republicans joined in to express their support for reforms on the border before acting on the request to aid Ukraine and the others. President Biden agreed and the Senate went to work to hammer out a bipartisan deal. After four months of nearly continuous work, and despite multiple attempts by MAGA supporters to undermine the act without even knowing what was in it, the negotiators unveiled the finished supplemental on Sunday night this week. Before it was fully read and digested, the leadership of the House declared it “DEAD on arrival in the House.” (The caps were in their actual statement. Hmmm. Someone else deals in all caps.) As Senator Murphy lamented, on Sunday night there were 20-25 Republican Senators that said they would support it and vote for it. By Monday night there were only four. What happened?
Trump happened.
Trump put out the word that anyone that voted for the supplemental act would be the target of his retribution. As a result, there was no vote in the House and a procedural vote in the Senate to move to debate over the bill failed. Before Monday night, a notable number of Senators from both parties considered this bill to be the best chance to enhance border security in decades. And then it was gone. Along with aid to Ukraine, a country desperate for supplies to counter the Russian invasion. There were no profiles in courage this week. To underscore the magnitude of the reversal, Republicans got nearly everything that they could hope for in a border bill. Frankly, I believe that they were shocked by how much they got. In past negotiations, Democrats had demanded a path to citizenship for Dreamers and others, but not in this bill. The Democrats agreed that there was a crisis on the border and were looking for concrete measures to improve the system. Additionally, many of the Democrats were focused on our commitments to our friends and allies in Europe and around the world believing that aid to counter Russia and China was paramount. They were willing to deal.
Republicans could not take yes for an answer.
Why would Trump kill it? For several reasons. First, he does not really want to solve the crisis on the border. In many ways, it his identity as a demagogue and provides the fodder to rant and rave about the “others” “invading” our country. If the crisis is solved or even alleviated, he has nothing to run on. By arguing that he can get a better deal when he is president (he can’t — as proven by four years of his presidency) he can continue to argue that the country is being overrun and that it is the Democrats’ fault. Recall the other debacle that took place Tuesday night when the House tried to impeach Secretary of Homeland Defense Alejandro Mayorkas and failed. (They will keep trying until they succeed.) There was no Constitutional basis to do so. It was merely political theater to try and agitate about the border crisis. The very border crisis that they refuse to do anything about. Clearly, the MAGA Republicans and those too afraid to resist them are putting party over country. More specifically, they are putting one man over the needs of our nation. As the Circuit Court identified him, he is citizen Trump. He has no legal or moral authority to dictate anything to the Congress of the United States.
This leads to the other reasons why citizen Trump torpedoed the bipartisan bill. He did it to show that he can. This may be the most dangerous of all the reasons. He demonstrated that in or out of office, he controls the Republicans in the Congress and as a result, given that the Republicans have a majority in the House and very little can get accomplished in the Senate without a filibuster proof majority of Senators, he dictates what gets accomplished in the Congress by vetoing any progress. Trump is laying the groundwork for his autocratic rule in the future.
Likewise, Trump is pro-Putin, pro-Xi and he sends love letters to Kim in North Korea. Aid to Ukraine would run counter to his support for Putin and Russia. Many of his MAGA supporters are likewise enamored of Putin and other “strong men” around the world. ”America First” means withdrawing from NATO and other alliances around the world. Trump is demonstrating to the world that the U.S. cannot be counted upon to meet its commitments and will turn away from our friends in need. Like it or not, without U.S. leadership, the forces of evil in the world have an ever increasing chance of prevailing. The Russian invasion of Ukraine is a prime example. It is a “pay me now or pay me later” proposition. Should Russia prevail in Ukraine, other nations are next on the list. But do not take my word for it, take a look at Finland and Sweden. Both nations rebuffed offers to join NATO for nearly 75 years. They know Russia. Since the invasion of Ukraine, Finland joined NATO and Sweden is in the process of doing so. They recognize the danger from an expansionist Russia.
Add to the picture that Trump is pushing his acolytes to remove Senator Mitch McConnell (R-KY) from his leadership position in the Senate. Why? Because he deigned to work with Democrats on bipartisan bills. Trump is also pushing to remove Ronna McDaniel the current head of the Republican National Committee (RNC) because even though she has let Trump do pretty much whatever he wants, she is now considered not MAGA enough. Trump wants a puppet as the RNC chair so that he has absolute control over the political levers of the party. Additionally, he is already using his “rigged election” mantra in Indiana claiming that Nikki Haley, his only remaining opponent for the presidential nomination, is illegally on the primary ballot there. He wants her removed and if she is not, then obviously “they” are trying to steal the election.
Put all of these pieces together and one can discern that citizen Trump, with no actual role in government, is building the will and the political infrastructure to do as he pleases in our country. His efforts are insidious but ever present.
We are in for a bumpy and dangerous year.
Dysfunction or Destruction (Continued)
Posted: January 31, 2024 Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: Congress, Donald Trump, Immigration, Impeachment, MAGA, MAGA Republicans, news, Politics, Texas, Ukraine, United States Constitution Leave a commentSince the Republican majority in the House of Representatives took office last January, I have pondered in this space as to whether the new majority was totally dysfunctional or totally determined to destroy our country and our democracy. Without painting everyone in the Republican party with the same broad brush, it is increasingly apparent that while the House is dysfunctional under MAGA Republican leadership, it is also bent on destroying the institutions and norms our government established and refined over the last 235 years. Taking one seemingly singular policy — immigration — it is possible to see how the MAGA crowd combines multiple issues into one large untidy package and brings the wheels of government to a grinding halt.
I will explain further in the following paragraphs, but through a supposed concern over our southern border, the MAGA Republicans controlling the House of Representatives have impacted our relations with NATO and other friends and allies; disrupted desperately needed aid to Ukraine, Israel, Gaza, Taiwan and our own border; initiated impeachment proceedings against a cabinet official; threatened the ability of the Supreme Court to interpret our laws; created the conditions for a state to physically impede federal officials from following the law; and elevated an out of government civilian to become the controlling entity on national policy. The implications for our country are too deep and disturbing to be merely the result of incompetence or dysfunction, although that certainly exists. It can only be attributed to a deliberate attempt to destroy our institutions in order to bring an autocrat to power.
Last October President Joe Biden asked Congress for 105 billion dollars for aid to Ukraine ($61.4 billion), Israel ($14,3 billion), and the southern border ($14 billion) and smaller amounts for Taiwan and humanitarian assistance in the Middle East. Republicans in the House and Senate immediately voiced their concerns over the request and it went nowhere. By the end of the year, Republicans were tying the money to policy reforms impacting our southern border. The president agreed to negotiate changes and invited the leadership of both parties in Congress to the White House to get the process started before the end of the year. Speaker of the House Mike Johnson (MAGA – LA) refused to participate in any solutions that did not meet all of the (mostly impractical) demands of his caucus. In the Senate, both parties, along with Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas and key White House aids entered into intense negotiations. All parties involved agree that there is a crisis on the southern border and that significant steps must be taken to alleviate the situation. Compromises came from both sides, and although the final product is not yet public, many Republican Senators publicly applauded the deal, as did most Democrat Senators and the president. South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham declared that it was the best immigration deal in decades. The legislation seems to be moving to a vote in the Senate in the coming weeks. Money for Israel — great! Money for Ukraine — great! More money to hire significantly more Customs Border Protection (CBP) agents, asylum judges, and facilities to house migrants on the southern border — great! Unicorns and rainbows and meaningful accomplishments! Except for one thing.
Speaker Johnson (also known as “MAGA Mike”) refuses to entertain any of it. Why? Because his boss, an out of office civilian pending criminal prosecution, told him to kill it. Trump has very few, if any, issues in his retribution campaign for the presidency. The only policy issue he touts to date is immigration. He deplores the current policies and claims that we have an “open border.” He uses dystopian rhetoric and xenophobia to paint the crisis on the border as an existential threat to our security and yet, no deal. He wants to run on the issue and cannot do so if it is resolved. He does not want to give a “win” to the Democrats (even though the Republicans publicly declare that they got almost everything they want) and so the country must endure another year of crisis until he is in office. A great patriot.
Meanwhile, no money for Ukraine. No money for Israel. No money for additional resources on the border. The MAGA Republicans’ total support of Trump includes his desire to withhold money for Ukraine. The pro-Putin wing of the party would like to see Ukraine fail. This is not a domestic issue. By preventing the United States from fulfilling its commitments to NATO, Ukraine and our friends and other allies around the world, we are sending a very clear message to the world that no country should depend on the United States for anything. This plays perfectly into the hands of Putin, Xi, Kim and the mullahs in Iran. If the United States does not stand fully with Ukraine, it is a safe bet that Xi will not expect us to stay the course with Taiwan. We will be finished as a reliable partner and supporter of democracy. The lesson for the world is that democracy does not work. Too chaotic. Too unreliable. Too dysfunctional to accomplish anything meaningful.
Meanwhile, at the same time that Secretary Majorkas is working with the Senate to find a solution to the border crisis, he is about to be impeached by the House. No “high crimes or misdemeanors,” just that they do not like the administration’s policies. Constitutional scholars of all stripes agree that there is no basis under the Constitution or the law for such an impeachment. Only one cabinet officer in our history has been impeached and that was nearly 150 years ago. (For those curious, it was Secretary of War William Belknap in 1876 for blatant corruption. Although a majority voted to convict him in the Senate, it did not reach the required two-thirds threshold. He had already resigned.) This is just another blatant political MAGA stunt taken at Trump’s direction in order to make his two impeachments look less terrible and to further hurt our country. The Secretary is likely to be acquitted in the Senate — if they even hold a trial which is not required – but if he is removed from office, the president will appoint another person to carry out the same policies. The entire thing is blatantly ridiculous and is underway only to appease one man.
As if this were not enough, the MAGA governor of Texas, Greg Abbott is defying a Supreme Court order concerning the placement of razor wire along the border that restricts and in some cases prevents the federal CBP from doing their job. Under the Constitution, the United States has jurisdiction over immigration and the borders, not Texas. The MAGA rhetoric surrounding the issue is reminiscent of that from southern states in the 1850s. ”States’ rights” is again the issue. Governor Abbot is using the Texas National Guard to “defend” the border and to prevent the federal agents from doing their jobs. Other MAGA governors are promising to send Guard units to Texas to help them defend their “sovereignty” and Governor Abbott’s claims that “the fight is not over” and that Texas has a right to “self defense.” By that he means that state laws and policies have priority over federal law, in direct conflict with the supremacy clause of the Constitution. Great MAGA minds such as Representative Thomas Massie (KY) promote over riding the Supreme Court decision by eliminating President Biden’s border funds. In other words, he advocates solving the border crisis by defunding the DHS. Brilliant! The next steps by the governor or the president are unclear as I write, but it could easily escalate into another self-generated crisis. What is clear is that MAGA politicians are willing to go against the Constitution in order to support Trump and his ambitions. A bad sign for our future.
Taken as a whole, the House of Representatives and certain state houses around the country see that their goal is to create chaos and disruption in order to bring down our established norms and institutions in the name of one man. There are multiple severe domestic and international threats to our national security as a result. Dysfunction may be MAGA’s middle name, but such a wide spread and concerted effort can only be explained when we realize that the real point is the destruction of our norms in order to elevate an autocrat to power.
Middle East Tinderbox
Posted: January 29, 2024 Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: Gaza, Hamas, Houthis, Iran, Israel, Middle East, Shia Crescent, Syria Leave a commentOver the weekend, an Iranian backed militia group used an explosives laden one-way drone to attack an American military outpost on the Jordanian border near Syria and Iraq known as Tower 22. Three American service members were killed and approximately 36 were injured, some seriously. The United States has a series of small bases scattered throughout parts of Syria and Iraq. Originally, these forces were there to counter the spread of the Islamic State (ISIS). They remain in order to keep ISIS from filling a vacuum and also to counter the presence of destabilizing Iranian militias. In response to this weekend’s attack, President Joe Biden declared that the United States “will hold all those responsible to account” and that “we shall respond.” Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said that, “We will take all necessary actions to defend the United States, our troops and our interests.” In order to knowledgeably speculate as to the nature of that response, it is necessary to put the entire geo-political atmosphere into context.
As the old ballpark selling point went, “you can’t tell the players without a score card.” So it is in the Middle East, there are a lot of different players with differing motives. Sometimes it can be hard to keep track of them all. Here are some of the key players.
On 7 October 2023 Hamas terrorists attacked Israel killing about 1200 Israelis and foreign nationals and taking roughly 240 hostages. Since then, Israel invaded Gaza to destroy Hamas and recover the hostages. To date, it is estimated that over 25,000 Gazans have died — mostly civilians. Hamas still holds about 100 Israeli hostages. The fighting continues with no clear end in sight. Indeed, the Israeli war aims are unclear beyond the mission to “destroy Hamas.” The Israeli government has yet to articulate when the war is over and what victory looks like. More specifically, what is the long term solution to reconstituting Gaza and returning its citizens to a humanitarian way of life while preserving Israel’s security? The international community, including the United States, consistently pushed for, and still persists in pushing for, a two-state solution. That is, Israel and a sovereign Palestinian state. The current Israeli government under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu unequivocally rejects that idea.
The United States and other nations continue to try and find a realistic path to establishing a peaceful and stable Palestinian state as it slowly brings Gulf states into the discussion and encourages Saudi Arabia to establish normalized relations with Israel. Recently, the Saudi national security adviser publicly declared Saudi Arabia’s determination to work with Israel as long as Israel commits to the establishment of a Palestinian state through practical steps, even if the actual formation of that state is in the future.
Enter Iran. Iran is interested in a de-stabilized region in order to pursue its own interests. In the Iranian leadership, there is a yearning to reestablish the Persian Empire — or in current parlance, the Shia crescent that stretches from Yemen to Lebanon and includes Bahrain, Iran, western Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, and Azerbaijan. (As you recall, there are two main Muslim sects — the Sunnis and the Shia. The Shia are the minority in the larger Muslim world. Most Iranians are Shia and most Saudis are Sunni.) Not coincidentally, the main Iranian backed militias include Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen. Other smaller groups exist in Iraq and Syria.
The most important players in the region are Saudi Arabia and Iran. They are competing not only for regional dominance in a diplomatic sense, but also on religious, economic and military grounds. Add to the mix that Iran is a major ally of Russia and is supplying them with drones and missiles to use in their fight against Ukraine. Russia would encourage Iranian adventurism in order to distract the U.S. from its commitments in Eastern Europe to aid Ukraine. Additionally, Iran views Israel as an existential threat. The Hamas-Israel war creates the conditions for Iran to further inflame regional passions and to make its presence felt on the world stage by creating chaos throughout the region. While Iran claims that it does not control the militia groups surrounding Israel or creating havoc on shipping lanes around the Arabian peninsula, all evidence clearly shows that they do. Intelligence, military equipment and training all come from Iran. It may be true that Iran does not control them on a tactical or operational level (when or where to attack), but there is no doubt that Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis or any of the other groups would not be conducting attacks without the overall green light from Iran.
The United States and our allies know that Iran is the main threat to peace in the region. That said, international efforts are focused on keeping the war in Gaza contained. There is no desire on anyone’s part, and I would include Iran in that calculation, to see a wide-spread full scale war in the region. But, it is getting close. Iran and its proxies are trying to push as hard as they can to disrupt the region, the world’s supply chains and thus world economies in order to serve their own interests and to distract their citizens from the fact that their own economy is in dire circumstances. Internal issues may drive Iranian decisions as a way to also distract the many people in Iran, primarily under the leadership of women and girls, that are pushing back against the theocracy and its oppressive measures.
Since 7 October 2023, the numbers of attacks on U.S. military forces in Iraq and Syria have steadily increased. The attacks on shipping in the Red Sea and Arabian Sea are also steadily increasing. The president ordered significant U.S. naval and air forces into the region to keep the Gaza war contained. It is not in the international community’s interest to see a major war in the Middle East. Those forward deployed forces have been responding to attacks on the American bases and international shipping at sea with proportional responses. Missiles and manned aircraft have attacked militia weapons production facilities, radars, launch sites and the like — both in response to attacks and, in Yemen, preemptively to prevent attacks. They are meant to deter future attacks and to warn Iran that the U.S. will respond militarily to their mischief. It is not working.
The U.S., alone or in concert with our allies that have also deployed forces to the region, must now respond directly against Iran for the attack on Tower 22. Iran must pay a price for their unchecked attacks. The thorny question becomes what is the right level of response and does it include a direct attack on targets in Iran? The planners in the Pentagon have been working overtime to supply the president a range of options. It is probable that economic sanctions and diplomatic measures are under consideration to warn the Iranians from further attacks. It is also highly likely that covert operations inside Iran, probably combined with cyber operations, will create some level of pain for the Iranian leadership. We can also expect some, as they say in the Pentagon, “kinetic responses”. In other words, ordnance on targets. At this point, it would be surprising to see a military attack on Iranian territory. It is conceivable, as we have done in the past, that Iranian forces at sea will be targeted. Depending on the scale, such an attack would make it clear to the Iranian leadership that there is a price to be paid for attacking Americans and it will degrade their ability to collect intelligence and/or carry out their own military actions. The hard part is to decide on a course of action that is unmistakable as to the source and that it causes real pain to the Iranians, without crossing the line into open warfare. No easy task.
There are hotheads on both sides of the equation that argue for going for the jugular. Given the circumstances in the Middle East, Eastern Europe and Western Pacific, it is dangerous to play with fire while sitting in the middle of a tinderbox that could go up in flames at any moment. A measured response is needed. It may take more than one go around. What we do know is that it will take a clear head and a steady hand on the helm to navigate these tricky waters.
Assassinations Are Okay
Posted: January 13, 2024 Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: Donald Trump, Impeachment, news, Politics, Presidential Immunity, Trump, U.S. Court of Appeals, United States Constitution Leave a commentIt is easy to get caught up in all of the vile, dangerous and non-sensical pronouncements of Donald J. Trump (he recently said that Abraham Lincoln should have negotiated with the South and thereby prevented the Civil War — and if he had done so, “you probably wouldn’t even know who Abraham Lincoln was.”) The problem is that if we ignore it, or just laugh it away, we run the danger of normalizing his behavior. On the other hand, the more we talk about it, the more he does it. I am sick of the guy and wish we could focus on defining our nation’s course going forward, rather than dealing with him. Unfortunately, the reality is that he is here to stay, whether or not he gets a second term.
Sometimes, we really need to pay attention. One of those times occurred this week and it was not Trump speaking but rather his knowledgeable and experienced attorneys making what they felt was a reasoned and Constitutional argument in the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia. A three judge panel is hearing Trump’s appeal of a lower court decision that he does not have total immunity from prosecution for any actions that he took as president. His lawyers claim that any president has total immunity as evidenced by over 200 years of our history where no president has ever been criminally tried for actions taken while president. Which is true. Mainly because no previous president committed crimes while in office. (The relevant exception is Richard M. Nixon. He accepted a pardon which is considered an admission of guilt.)
Without getting too far down into the inner workings of the law, especially since I am not an expert, my understanding is that Trump’s attorneys are arguing that under the Constitution, a president must be impeached by the House and convicted by the Senate before he or she can be prosecuted for a crime. They base their argument on Article I, Section 3, Clause 7 of the Constitution which says:
“Judgment in Cases of Impeachment shall not extend further than to removal from Office, and disqualification to hold and enjoy any Office of honor, Trust or Profit under the United States: but the Party convicted shall nevertheless be liable and subject to Indictment, Trial, Judgment and Punishment, according to Law.“
In other words, they argue, no conviction in the Senate, no prosecution for a crime. Which turns the established interpretation of the clause upside down and opens up a whole can of worms over hypothetical situations where the president can literally get away with murder. The Court of Appeals and Trump’s lawyers went there.
Judge Florence Y. Pan asked Trump’s lead attorney Mr. D. John Sauer if any president could be charged for ordering SEAL Team Six (the Navy’s elite special forces unit) to assassinate a political rival. The reply by Mr. Sauer was that a president could only be tried if the House impeached him and the Senate convicted him. Without those preconditions, there was no possibility under the Constitution to prosecute him.
This was no wild claim made during a Trump rambling campaign speech in front of his adoring followers. This was the legal argument in the U.S. Court of Appeals.
The hypotheticals cascade from there. The president could murder anyone and resign before being impeached. The president could murder a rival and then have his non-supporters in the Senate killed before he was convicted. The mind can run loose on any number of scenarios. Mr. Sauer argued that a president was immune from prosecution for all of that unless impeached and convicted in the Congress.
This is what we have reaped for putting Trump center stage.
I have no idea whether Trump or any other president would try to eliminate all political opposition through murder. What it does tell me is that should the court decide that a president is immune from prosecution for any actions while president, then Trump will use that finding to his full advantage. He will undertake all kinds of previously unimaginable activities as president if he thinks it will help him to get whatever he wants and he cannot be held accountable.
To be clear, there are some complications to finding that a president can be prosecuted for any action taken while president. In Trump’s mind that means he can prosecute Presidents Obama and Biden should he so desire for any action of theirs that he decides was “criminal.” The Appeals Court (and likely the Supreme Court where the case could go next) will have to figure out a way to define or limit the parameters for prosecution. We must all remember as well that presidents do not prosecute people. The citizens of the United States prosecute people. Grand juries indict people. A jury of our peers hears cases involving the alleged crimes and must reach a unanimous guilty verdict. Laws must be followed. Yet, it is clear by Trump’s arguments that he thinks he is above the law and I, for one, have no doubt that should he get into the White House again, he will ignore any limits that may have constrained his predecessors.
When we worry that we spend too much time, energy and resources on thinking about Trump, remember that he thinks assassinations are okay.
Abandon The Truth And Lose Democracy
Posted: January 6, 2024 Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: 14th Amendment, 2024 Election, 6 January Insurrection, Congress, Constitution, Donald Trump, Politics, Supreme Court, Trump, United States Constitution Leave a comment“Don’t it always seem to go, that you don’t know what you’ve got ’til it’s gone.”
— Joni Mitchell in “Big Yellow Taxi”
Today marks the third anniversary of the insurrection designed to keep Donald J. Trump in office. Yesterday, President Joe Biden gave a speech in Valley Forge Pennsylvania reminding all of us that the attack that day was anti-American and against all of the values that we say we stand for in our country. He also reminded us that without due diligence, it will happen again. Sadly, he is correct.
The effective propaganda campaign waged by the Insurrectionist-in-Chief and his accomplices in the U.S. House of Representatives and the right-wing media is astonishingly effective. The Washington Post made headlines this week when it announced that in a Washington Post-University of Maryland poll, twenty-five percent of Americans believe that it is “definitely” or “probably” true that the FBI instigated the assault on the Capitol. Even more astounding and dangerous to me is that in that same poll, seventy-seven percent of Trump voters are “not sure” or “definitely” believe that the FBI organized and encouraged the attack.
As we start the new year, it seems that our collective optimism that a new year can bring new and improved elements to our lives, is, I am afraid, misplaced. Apparently, the MAGA attempts to destroy our country so that a “strong man” (hint, hint) can take charge and straighten out our nation’s course are going to continue and where possible, are doubled down. Let’s start with the House of Representatives. The MAGA Republicans (essentially all of those Republicans in the House) are holding hostage a bill to provide aid to Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan and our southern border until all of their demands (which coincidentally exactly match Trump’s) are met. For good measure, they are threatening to fail to act to keep the government open when the current continuing resolution (CR) partially runs out on 19 January 2024. (The CR is in two parts for different government functions. The other runs out on 2 February,) While Republicans in the Senate negotiate with Senate Democrats and the president, the House leadership refuses to participate and Speaker Mike Johnson (MAGA-LA) supports the most extreme demands of his caucus.
All of which ignores the fact that the president and Democrats in the House and Senate all agree that we need to strengthen the border and have asked for roughly fourteen billion dollars to hire new Custom and Border Patrol (CBP) agents and asylum judges, provide aid to border areas dealing with the influx of migrants and to take other measures to strengthen the border. This is not enough for the Republican House who demand, among other things, restricting asylum requests and detaining those seeking asylum until their case is heard (currently that could be years), building Trump’s border wall (while over-riding any environmental or historical concerns and allowing for non-negotiable rights of imminent domain to confiscate private land for the wall), rolling back current protections for immigrant minors, and they want to preclude any reforms to the immigration system such as paths to citizenship or legalizing “Dreamers” (immigrants that were brought into the country as young children and now have lived, gone to school and worked in the United States and are, for all practical purposes, Americans.) There is more in their plan codified in House Resolution 2, but you get the idea.
In sum, the House under the leadership of a MAGA Speaker refuses to help Ukraine fight Russia, provide needed assistance to Israel and Gaza, support Taiwan against an ever increasingly aggressive China, and provide needed assistance to our own border. But of course, they do not really care about the border. It is only a cudgel to be used to campaign against Democrats in general and President Biden in particular. Or as Texas MAGA Representative Troy Nehls said this week about the president’s border proposals, “Let me tell you, I’m not willing to do too damn much right now to help a Democrat and to help Joe Biden’s approval rating.” A great American. The issue is not solving the border problems, it is winning an election.
Speaking of such, let us return to the insurrection that increasing numbers of Americans believe is either fake, or “no big deal.” The story is a familiar one but worth repeating. Trump won the Electoral College in 2016, but as you will recall, he lost the popular vote. Immediately he called “fraud” “rigged” and claimed that there were gross improprieties in the way the results were tabulated. He then put together a national commission to prove that there was voter fraud in the 2016 election. The results of the investigation? Crickets. There was no fraud. The commission quietly disbanded. In Trump world, very little is new or original so he used the same script in 2020. Only this time he lost both the popular vote and the Electoral College. As president he tried to marshal all the resources at his command to upend the results and remain in office. When those efforts failed to work, he instigated an insurrection and gave “aid” and “comfort to the enemies” of the United States.
Here is the through line. From the beginning Trump claimed that the “deep state” and “Democrats” did not want him to be president because he would fight for the “little guy.” He made that argument in 2016, again during his presidency, and in 2020. Those lined up against the little guy would do anything to keep him from becoming president again. He has been consistent over the last three years in claiming that the 2020 and 2016 elections were rigged. Any effort to debunk that claim is derided as being part of the conspiracy to keep him from office. Thus the insurrection was dialed up by the FBI, the courts are against him, he is unfairly being kept from what is rightfully his (and his cult followers) and on and on and on. It becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy, a continuing spiral. Everything is rigged and you, the common person, are getting screwed because you are not getting what you deserve and I will give it to you. When someone is in the cult, it all makes sense. Swallowing wholesale the idea that the establishment does not want Trump in power results in everything else that happens to him make sense. It is not his fault, it is the deep state out to get him. For true believers (and there are millions, but there are also politicians that don’t buy any of that junk but see a path to their own power — more despicable than the believers) it all makes sense.
Very dangerous.
Which leads us to the Supreme Court agreeing to hear Trump’s appeal of the Colorado court’s decision to invoke the 14th Amendment, Section 3 finding that he was part of an insurrection against the United States and therefore ineligible to hold office.
For a minute, I have to pause. Which one of us would ever think that it was necessary to go to court to stop a major U.S. political party candidate from running for president after instigating an insurrection? The mere thought of it is absurd. In my mind it would be inconceivable that anyone that tried to overthrow the government would be a leading candidate for president. Or at least it would have been for most of my life. I used to think about some folks in our country and their actions and say “this is not who we are” as a nation. Now, given that millions of people, knowing all of the facts, still support a man that tried to overthrow our government, I am beginning to wonder. Maybe this is who we are as a nation.
My own view is that the Supreme Court will find a technicality to keep Trump on the ballot without actually addressing whether or not he fomented an insurrection and subsequently gave aid and comfort to the insurrectionists. If that happens, then we have lost our way as a nation. Even now, Trump calls the insurrectionists “patriots” and “political hostages.” He vows to pardon them and have government officials apologize to them. He promises revenge and retribution to get even with his perceived enemies.
Let’s quickly review the facts. More than 140 police officers were injured that day. To date 1,240 individuals have been charged with federal crimes relating to that day, 452 of them for assaulting law enforcement officers and roughly 900 have been convicted in a trial or pleaded guilty to their crimes. For 187 minutes Trump sat on his butt and refused efforts as Commander-in-Chief to take action to stop it, which in my professional career constitutes a gross negligence of duty. Obviously his oath to “preserve, protect and defend” the Constitution means nothing to him. This man has no socially redeeming value to our country. And yet, he has a chance of being elected our president and becoming a “dictator” on day one, as he publicly promised.
Some people are upset that the courts may decide that Trump is ineligible to run for president. Let the voters decide at the ballot box, they say. I say why? He has already proven that he will not accept the results of any election unless he wins in a landslide. He has tried since 2015 to actively undermine our democracy. He led a coup for goodness sake! What makes anyone think that he will follow any rules, regulations or “guardrails”? He will not. He does not deserve to run for president much less to serve. Is it undemocratic to disallow Barak Obama or George W. Bush from running? They would be popular candidates today and many people would vote for them. They cannot of course, because the Constitution says that they cannot. The same Constitution applies to Trump. I am tired of him getting special consideration that you or I would not get. Frankly, I am just tired. The man is ruining our country, wholly aided and abetted by weak people in the Republican MAGA party that are literally physically afraid of him or that have sold their souls for a smidgeon of power.
Too many people think that “it can’t happen here.” All of the evidence is right in front of our faces. It can happen here. It is happening here. There are forces at work to destroy our country in order to rebuild it in their image of a white, “Christian,” male dominated society where the “right people” dictate to the rest of us as to how to live our lives. Trump just happens to be their standard bearer. Stopping him will put a crimp in their plans but it will not stop their efforts when a new Trumpian figure is in place. The bulk of the Republican party no longer is the party of small government, state’s rights and limited spending. They still talk that game but their actions show that really they want a large monolithic government that dictates the life choices, health care, education, even what books to read for our fellow citizens. It is their way or the highway. Otherwise you and I are “vermin” “poisoning the blood” of America. Believe what they tell you.
For 246 years we have had a pretty good ride as a democratic republic that values the freedom of individuals. Ours is not a perfect union, but throughout our history we strived “to form a more perfect union.” We sure will miss it if we lose it.
“A Republic If You Can Keep It”
Posted: December 21, 2023 Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: 14th Amendment, 2020 Election. Insurrection, 2024 Election, Constitution, Donald Trump, Insurrection, Politics, SCOTUS, Supreme Court, Trump Leave a commentIn a 4-3 vote on 19 December 2023, the Colorado Supreme Court reached a momentous and far-reaching decision. Citing Section 3 of the 14th Amendment, they deemed that Donald J. Trump was ineligible to be president again because he engaged in an insurrection on 6 January 2021. This decision raises many perplexing questions that could impact the future of our democratic republic.
The 14th Amendment was enacted in 1868 to solidify the civil rights gained through the Civil War. Primarily, it protects the rights of all Americans by addressing the basic tenets of citizenship in the United States. Perhaps its most cited sections concern birth-right citizenship and equal protection under the law found in Section 1 of the five sections. Section 3 is included to prevent former Confederates from holding state or federal office and reads as follows:
“No person shall be a Senator or Representative in Congress, or elector of President and Vice President, or hold any office, civil or military, under the United States, or under any state, who, having previously taken an oath, as a member of Congress, or as an officer of the United States, or as a member of any state legislature, or as an executive or judicial officer of any state, to support the Constitution of the United States, shall have engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the same, or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof. But Congress may by a vote of two-thirds of each House, remove such disability.”
The Colorado decision will undoubtedly be appealed by Trump’s lawyers to the Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS), as I believe it should. While current “conservatives” push state’s rights, our system will not function if each state decides for itself what criteria are necessary to run for president. The question is how quickly the SCOTUS will hear the case. The Colorado court stayed its decision until 4 January 2024, unless the case is heard by the SCOTUS before then. The date reflects a 5 January deadline for printing the state’s primary ballot. There is precedent for a quick SCOTUS decision regarding presidential ballots as found in the 5-4 decision in 2000 that effectively handed George W. Bush the presidency in the case Bush v Gore.
Before moving forward with this piece, there are a few things to say up front. I am not an attorney and certainly not an expert on the Constitution. I do, however, have a brain and believe that this section of the amendment is pretty straight forward in its language. I must also add that this case in not the result of far left wing radicals or an attempt by Democrats to derail the Trump campaign. The plaintiffs in the case are five conservative Republicans and an independent voter. The original arguments for applying the 14th Amendment to Trump came from some of the most conservative judges in the country, including members of the Federalist Society. It remains relevant to remember that the ruling disqualifies Trump from the ballot. It does not impose any punishment or result in a conviction for a crime. As is often cited, he is not qualified under the 14th Amendment just as he would not be qualified if he failed to meet the other requirements for the presidency under the Constitution (at least 35 years old, a natural born citizen and lived in the country for at least 14 years).
It would be easy to get down in the weeds and parse every word of Section 3. I am sure some will do exactly that. It seems to me that there are a few salient points that address the issues in larger ways through these main arguments.
Is the president an “officer of the United States?” Common sense and logic say yes. Why would the Constitution disqualify an insurrectionist from every office requiring an oath to the Constitution, except for the highest office in the land and the one most susceptible to danger from insurrection? The counter argument is that the Constitution often references specific requirements, duties or official actions for office holders. The President and Vice President are not listed in Section 3 by name so therefore they cannot be disqualified for being insurrectionists. This just does not pass the logic test. It does not even pass the Trump logic test. In other court cases he is arguing that he is immune from prosecution as an officer of the government, but here, he claims not to be.
Another area of dispute involves the boundaries of what exactly constitutes an insurrection. Was the attack on Congress on 6 January an insurrection? And if it was, how is Trump as president responsible for the attack or giving “aid and comfort” to it? To me, the actions Trump took for days and weeks leading up to the attack clearly demonstrate his intent and clear actions to prevent the peaceful transfer of power. The counter argument is that Trump has never been found guilty of engaging “in an insurrection or rebellion,” indeed he has yet even to be indicted for insurrection. Therefore, the argument goes, he cannot be disqualified. The Colorado Supreme Court and the lower court before it, studied the available, exhaustive investigations into the attack and unequivocally declared it to be an insurrection. I am with them.
Some argue that the disqualification would be imposed without due process. Again, I am not an attorney but it seems that Trump had lawyers in the court room presenting the case for his continued eligibility. They presented arguments as to why the Constitution should not apply and provided evidence to support their case. They will have the same opportunity in front of the SCOTUS. What more do they want?
Other arguments against the disqualification include questions concerning whether or not the provisions in this amendment are “self-executing.” In other words, is it a provision that can stand on its own and that can be enforced without any other action or laws required? There are a number of self-executing provisions in the Constitution, especially in the designation of powers of the three branches of government. Partly, this is about what exactly is an insurrection or rebellion. Should it be defined in law with specific consequences clarifying the 14th Amendment?
These are the broad outlines of the legal arguments swirling around the Colorado decision. The real fall out, of course, is political. Many MAGA and Republican luminaries are arguing that Trump’s fitness and qualifications for office should be decided at the ballot box. It is, they shout, un-American to keep the people from voting for the candidate of their choice. When I stop laughing, it might be worth noting that Trump tried, and continues to try, to do exactly that. He still claims he won the 2020 election and worked hard (including an insurrection) to keep the will of the voters from coming to fruition. He already tried to overthrow the government! He tried to prevent the duly elected president from taking office! How can that be any more un-American or anti-democratic? One might argue that disqualifying him from the ballot is actually the most pro-American, pro-democracy act we could imagine. The court system works “without fear or favor!”
(Note: In a future piece I plan to address Trump’s attacks on the judiciary, of which this is one more. The main institution that saved our Republic after the 2020 election was the courts. Trump is now working as hard as he can to disrupt, destroy and de-legitimize our court system. If he succeeds, there will be no guard rails to save our democracy should he prevail in 2024.)
The vast majority of the original citizens impacted by Section 3 of the 14th Amendment were never indicted or tried for insurrection or rebellion. There were no Congressional laws defining how the amendment should be applied. Why must we always bend the system to fit Trump’s desires and demands?
I hope that the Justices decide the case purely on legal and Constitutional grounds while ignoring the crescendo of pro-Trumpers that will put tremendous pressure on them to “stay out of politics.” Screaming “separation of powers” and all of that. I do not see how the SCOTUS can ignore the political and social ramifications of any decision they make. It will be viewed as a political decision, whichever way they go. My guess is that they will decide the issue on a narrow technical aspect of the law and the Constitution. As some suggest, they may hang their hat on the final provision of the section and decide that since the Congress can override a “disability” with a two-thirds vote of each House, then this is really a matter for the Congress to decide and the courts should stay out of it.
In the end, we will be further down the road of dysfunction and division. 2024 will be wild. Be there.
Tom
Into The Fray 
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