Appeasement Never Succeeds

“Stopping the war, stopping from taking the whole country, pretty big concession.”

Trump on 24 April 2025 when asked in the Oval Office as to what concessions Russia is offering to bring about the negotiated end of its war on Ukraine.

It has been clear for some time that the U.S. position on the war in Ukraine is the same as Russia’s. We have now switched sides in negotiations to end the conflict. Trump and his advisors put the blame on Ukraine and President Vlodymyr Zelenskyy for starting the war and for its continuation. Facts be damned, it is the way that Trump says it is and he is hopping mad that the Ukrainians will not give in to his demands.

Russia invaded Crimea, a part of Ukraine, in early 2014 following in the wake of the ouster of then Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych — a Russian proxy. Special forces personnel in unmarked uniforms — the “little green men” as they were dubbed at the time — seized key positions throughout the region and Russia formally annexed Crimea on 18 March 2014. Although the invasion was condemned throughout much of the world, Russia continues to claim that Crimea is rightfully theirs. This was the first step in Vladimir Putin’s plan to regain Ukraine in his quest to restore the Russian Empire.

Step two was the rise of pro-Russian paramilitary groups in the Ukrainian regions of Luhansk and Donbas in the spring of 2014. The Ukrainian military sought to retake the area and a long bloody stand-off ensued. Russia continued to arm, train and support the separatists in the conflict, with the intent of eventually retaking all of Ukraine.

Step three was the full-scale invasion of Ukraine by Russian special forces and regular army forces on 24 February 2022. Mr. Putin declared that it was necessary to conduct a “special military operation” to protect the people in eastern Ukraine and to remove the “neo-Nazis” in charge of the Ukrainian government. Those officials, according to Mr. Putin, were conniving with NATO to invade Russia and were developing nuclear weapons to use against Russia. The Russians had a duty to attack and bring about the “demilitarization and denazification” of Ukraine. The surprise attack failed and a long and bloody conflict continues.

As a candidate for president, Trump declared that he could end the war in Ukraine in “24 hours” — maybe even before he took office. He now claims that his repeated statements were a “joke.” A joke that covered the deaths of tens of thousands.

No formal direct talks have taken place involving Russia, Ukraine, Europe and the U.S. sitting down together for serious negotiations. Instead, the U.S. is trying to force Ukraine to accept a “deal” put together by Trump and his administration — some of whom were staunch advocates on behalf of Ukraine and its independence. Now they seem to have gone all in on Trump’s support of Russia against Ukraine. (I’m looking at you, Mr. Secretary of State.)

Here is the “deal” that Trump is trying to force on Ukraine.

  • Both the U.S. and Ukraine recognize that Crimea is formally part of Russia.
  • Ukraine cede its territory now occupied by Russian forces in eastern Ukraine to Russia.
  • Ukraine promises to never join NATO.
  • No European or NATO forces can enter Ukraine to ensure its security.
  • U.S. military aid to Ukraine will be suspended.
  • The U.S. will be given access to rare earth minerals in Ukraine to “repay” the aid that they have received in their fight against Russia.
  • The U.S. lifts most sanctions against Russia imposed for its repeated aggression against Ukraine.
  • The U.S. and Russia will resume formal diplomatic and trade relations which were disrupted following the Russian invasions.

There may be more to which we are not privy. Trump changes his demands on a whim. The deal gives Mr. Putin everything he wants without even having to negotiate. Russia and Ukraine have had past security agreements that the Russians violate at their discretion. The Ukrainian experience is that any security agreement with Russia is worthless.

Not surprisingly, President Zelenskyy has refused to accept these terms. He has agreed to Trump’s proposal of a 30 day cease fire, but the Russians continue to put up road blocks to its implementation until they get what they want. So far, Trump has put little pressure on Mr. Putin (unless you count the occasional social media posts asking “Vladimir” to stop bombing civilians in Ukraine.) One might ask as to why the Russians would negotiate anything if Trump has already given them all that they want (for now) without having to do anything other than not take over the whole country?

Here is the topper. If a peace deal is not accepted “soon” the U.S. will “walk away” from the whole thing, according to Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Vice President J.D. Vance. No one is sure exactly what that means. If it means the end of military and intelligence support to Ukraine — which Trump already temporarily suspended once — then we would be walking away from helping a democracy in Europe under attack by a dictator and allowing the continued destruction of Ukraine and the loss of countless civilian lives.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is the largest conflict in Europe since World War II. NATO was meant to prevent one nation from forcefully invading and taking over another sovereign nation. Originally aimed at the Soviet Union, now Russia, it also has diplomatic and military impact throughout the world. Walking away from our commitments makes us less safe and is a direct threat to our own national security.

Let’s put it plainly. Trump loves Putin. Trump sides with Putin. Trump will throw Ukraine to the wolves if he thinks it makes him look good to Putin. Putin knows exactly how to play Trump to get whatever he wants. Trump handing Ukraine to Putin will undermine the world order that has basically kept the peace for eighty years. We will be in a destabilized world where everything is on the table.

If Trump follows through on his plan to appease Mr. Putin and hand over Ukraine it is likely to have long term consequences that will rate a place in history alongside British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain’s “peace in our time” appeasement of Adolf Hitler that led to World War II. In his mind, Trump will be awarded the Nobel Prize for bringing peace to Ukraine. (Not a joke. He talks about it. A lot. Probably because President Barack Obama was awarded a Nobel Prize. It drives him crazy.) In fact, he will be setting the stage for continued conflict.

This is not a prediction. It is looking at history and the current geo-political alignment of nations. If Ukraine accedes to Trump’s/Putin’s demands, and with the rest of NATO uncertain how to proceed, Putin will reconstitute his forces and then seize the rest of Ukraine. (Ukraine will resist, but without significant help they cannot defeat Russia over the long haul.) Putin will then turn to the Baltic States to “protect Russians” living in those countries and to “relieve” the pressure on the Kaliningrad Oblast — a part of sovereign Russia surrounded by the Baltic Sea, Lithuania and Poland. The Baltic States and Poland are members of NATO. Should they be attacked, then Article V of the NATO Treaty comes into play — an attack on one member is an attack on all. With an “America First” policy, it is unclear if the current U.S. administration would follow through on our commitment to NATO. Regardless, just like in the 1930’s, appeasement leads to large scale war.

Is this a worst case scenario? Of course. But not so far fetched. Mr. Putin has opined for decades that the worst event in the 20th century was the dissolution of the Soviet Union. He has vowed in many different forums and formats that his goal is to restore the power and grandeur of the Russian Empire. Ukraine is just the first piece of the puzzle. Any former Soviet Republic should be looking over their shoulder at the Russian bear that is preparing and planning to bring Putin’s dream to fruition.

I have no idea where Trump’s infatuation with Mr. Putin begins. We can speculate to our heart’s content but after all of this time, we all know that regardless of the cause, it exists. We can also see where it is headed if Trump continues to blame Mr. Zelenskyy for the Russian invasion and if he continues to force him to bend to Mr. Putin’s will. From where I sit, Mr. Zelenskyy and the entire Ukrainian people are not wimps. They will not go willingly into any agreement that they know will lead to their destruction as a nation. The European Union and NATO are gearing up to step in to help Ukraine if the U.S. abandons them. It is unclear where that leads or whether Ukraine can prevail without U.S. guarantees. Right now, Mr. Putin thinks he can wait out the U.S. and that he will eventually prevail against Ukraine — at great economic and military cost — but he knows he will prevail. It will be a lot easier with U.S. help.


No One Is Safe

Nur für Deutsche” (“Only for Germans”)

Signs posted during World War II in Nazi Germany and occupied territories

“America is for Americans and Americans only!”

Stephen Miller at a New York City rally for Trump on 27 October 2024. He is now the Deputy Chief of Staff for Trump in charge of immigration.

Yesterday I stumbled upon a live press availability in the Oval Office where Trump and the president of El Salvador Nayib Bukele (the self proclaimed “world’s coolest dictator” — you can’t make this stuff up) held forth about a variety of issues. Among them, Trump declared that the war in Ukraine was President Biden’s (“he should never have let it happen”) and President Zelenskyy’s fault (“you don’t start a war against someone twenty times your size and then hope that people give you some missiles”), spread Russian propaganda, lied about the Supreme Court, congratulated himself on his trade war with our allies and friends, and opined about sending U.S. citizens to the most dangerous prison in the western hemisphere in El Salvador. (More on that in a minute.) All of that is to name just a few of the embarrassing and yet terrifying remarks that he made. To me, it was an unmistakable declaration of his belief that he was already the autocrat he always yearned to be. It was literally a jaw dropping moment as I realized how much trouble we are in as a nation that used to be dedicated to the rule of law.

The Trump Administration brings an entirely new level of craziness and ignorance into our lives every day. As the president and his minions challenge our long standing traditions and norms in every area of our national lives — from the economy to foreign affairs — there is one thing in common to all of it. The correct questions to ask are does Trump or his family financially benefit from his actions? If not, which of his cronies do? As Anne Applebaum points out in her article “Kleptocracy, Inc” in The Atlantic magazine, Trump knows that he can get away with anything. After all, he is a convicted felon that tried to overthrow the government and suffered no meaningful consequences. Why worry about silly things like conflicts of interest or blatant financial dealings that enrich the president? Who is going to stop him? Manipulate trade laws to crash the stock market, bring it back, and then have his family and friends profit from possible insider trading? Why not? But, just to make sure, Trump suspended enforcement of a long list of checks and balances on our financial system that prevent illegal activity. His actions now allow for nearly unfettered corruption, graft, greed and bribery to flourish. Too harsh? Look up “World Liberty Financial” as an example of the many ways he is making money off of the presidency. It is the Trump family cryptocurrency business that he set up just after his re-election. Anyone can contribute to it at any time. A perfect front for taking bribes.

The country, including you and I, are, to use a technical term, screwed.

But even as I watch my 401(k) disappear, the grift and graft are not my biggest worries with the Trump administration. I am most worried about the loss of our rights under the Constitution. We are well on our way to having our worst nightmares realized.

As with the case of Kilmar Abrego Garcia, a Maryland father married to a U.S. citizen picked up off the street and sent to the notorious Centro de Confinamiento del Terrorismo (CETCO) in El Salvador, none of us appear safe anymore. The Trump Administration claims that the Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) declared in a 9-0 unanimous decision that under the Alien Enemies Act of 1798, the president has unfettered rights to do as he pleases with regards to national security and foreign affairs. In fact, the SCOTUS declared nothing of the kind. They ruled that the U.S. has the obligation to “facilitate” the return of Mr. Garcia from El Salvador as he had no criminal record anywhere, was protected from deportation to El Salvador by a court order, and three administration officials declared, under oath, that his banishment to CETCO was an “administrative error.” The government argues that he is a member of a dangerous gang without producing any evidence to support their claim. Besides, they argue, he is now in El Salvador, therefore U.S. courts have no jurisdiction and the U.S. government cannot just go and get him. Not surprisingly, President Bukele said that he would not release Mr. Garcia.

Please let me get this straight. Trump started a trade war, threatens to invade Greenland and Panama, turn Canada into the 51st state, says he can end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours, and yet he is too weak to convince a two bit dictator (who is getting paid by the U.S. to keep prisoners in CETCO), to release one man?

Why is this important? Two big reasons. The Trump administration is clearly ready to defy SCOTUS if they don’t like a particular ruling, and it is currently unclear whether or not SCOTUS will insist on the administration following the law. Second, if the administration can claim that once somebody is sent to El Salvador the U.S. has no further way to bring that person home, even if they were sent in error, then what is to prevent them from “accidentally” picking up a U.S. citizen, sending them to El Salvador and then claiming that, as Bukele did on social media when this all began, “Oopsie….. To late.”

Yesterday Trump asked Bukele to expand CETCO with five new buildings so that he could make even more people disappear into the depths of that hell hole including what he calls “home grown criminals” — American citizens. Is that legal? Not under our Constitution. Can “mistakes” happen? Who knows? What we do know is that nearly every action that Trump has taken since his inauguration runs counter to what we had come to assume was “normal” for our democratic republic. Instead, his administration has declared “emergencies” in every area of our lives to put into place whatever policy suits their fancy.

Everyone in the U.S. is entitled to due process under the Constitution, no matter their status. The Trump administration sees no need for such legalities when they are dealing with anyone they deem a threat — as they define it. Apparently, they are the only ones that can define the threat. Note that we already have laws that deal with illegal immigration, deal with criminals and provide the ability to lawfully deal with people that are a threat to our security. Trump refuses to use existing legal means, probably because they know that there is no legal basis to do what they are doing.

Mr. Garcia is the example that demonstrates where this administration is going. Last week they declared roughly 6100 immigrants as “dead” in the Social Security system. They range in age from 13 to 80 and are here under a variety of legal policies. The intent is to get them to self-deport. Here is what happens when the Social Security Administration puts one into the dead system. Not only do you lose social security benefits (which most immigrants pay into but if they are illegal, they get no benefits out) but banks, landlords, credit card companies and numerous other financial and social systems immediately drop you out of their systems. You cannot work. Need cash from your savings account for food? Sorry, you don’t need to eat, you are dead! How do you self deport? By going to an immigration judge and letting them know. Easy. Except if ICE is also there and picks you up before you see the judge, holds you incommunicado and sends you to CETCO.

Apparently the Trump administration is focusing on students studying in U.S. colleges either on a student visa or with a green card. Several hundred students have been deported or refused re-entry into the U.S. for various reasons — usually because they are alleged to have taken part in demonstrations (even if peaceful) protesting the Israeli government’s treatment of Palestinians. The administration’s announced plans to scour the social media postings of all 1.2 million foreign students in the U.S. and deport those alleged to have remarks deemed “antisemitic” or critical of U.S. policies. The government will decide who meets those criteria without defining them.

Let’s come back around to sending “home grown” criminals to CETCO. Last week Trump signed two Executive Orders targeting two of his former first term administration officials. One is Christopher Krebs who was the cyber security official that oversaw the 2020 election. He declared it the safest, most secure election in the history of the U.S. The other official is Miles Taylor who was the chief of staff in the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) during Trump’s first term. Mr. Krebs is in trouble because Trump still claims that the 2020 election was rigged (really? still?!) and therefore Mr. Krebs is facilitating the falsification of the election results. Mr. Taylor wrote an anonymous op-ed for the New York Times, and later a book, detailing how crazy things were within the Trump administration’s first term. Trump wants the DHS and the Attorney General to investigate and prosecute the two men. (Talk about politicizing the DOJ!) Here’s the rub. Trump declared that what they did, especially Mr. Taylor, was “treasonous.” The maximum punishment for treason is death. Does that make Mr. Taylor a “monster criminal” and if so is he eligible for permanent incarceration in the gulag known as CETCO? Where does it stop? He has said that the former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs General Mark Milley committed treason by not doing everything Trump wanted him to do in his first term. Does he go to CETCO?

We might only be surprised by our lack of imagination on just how far this administration is willing to go.

Trump continues to sign Executive Orders attempting to put powerful law firms, that have in some way or another irritated him, out of business. Sadly, so far many of them have caved to Trump and crawled to the Oval Office to kiss his ring. As a result, Trump has amassed the promise of roughly one billion dollars in pro bono legal services for his causes. Whatever those may be. He only cares about himself, so I guess these law firms will give Trump nearly unlimited legal advice and support for whatever strikes his fancy.

The deputy chief of staff Stephen Miller publicly stated that his goal was to deport one million people by the end of 2025. (The dirty little secret is that despite the hype and high profile cases, so far the Trump administration has deported slightly fewer people than the Biden administration did over the same time period. The Biden administration followed the law.) That means that they are planning to deport people that are here legally. Just declare that groups of people (Haitians, Venezuelans, Ukrainians, pick your group) no longer have special legal status to stay in the U.S. and you have a target rich environment to start deporting whomever you want. Asylum seekers, green card holders, student visa holders, just pick a group. Were I a naturalized citizen I would be paying close attention. One man with a legal green card was arrested Monday while attending a scheduled meeting on how to become a naturalized citizen.

My sense is that they literally want to deport every man, woman and child that is not a born in the U.S.A. citizen. Although even that may not be enough if Trump succeeds in over-turning the 14th Amendment, which he is already trying to do.

No one is safe. Congress remains supine in worship of Trump and have abdicated their responsibilities under the Constitution. We thought that the judicial branch would step into the breach but it is not clear to me that they will. The SCOTUS seems hesitant to directly challenge Trump and his administration. Perhaps they know that Trump will ignore any ruling with which he disagrees and therefore they do not want to give him that opportunity. I do not know. I am out of the prediction business, but I can read and listen and see what is happening and I am very concerned.

I take solace in the fact that we are not Hungary, or Turkey or Russia. We have a tradition of democracy and most of us will not give it up easily. My concern is that the muscle memory of most Americans assumes that politicians come and go but life pretty much continues as it always has. That just is not true today. Big changes are ahead. What they are I know not, but we all need to pay attention.


“Slip Sliding Away”

“We won with the poorly educated. I love the poorly educated.”

— Donald J. Trump in a victory speech after the Nevada caucus in 2016

While I, and many others, warned of the likely devastation that a second Trump administration would bring, I, at least, while not surprised at what is happening, am shocked at the depth and breadth of his total frontal assault on our democracy. He told us what he would do, but I was not sure that he would be able to pull it off, especially in such a short time frame. Of course, shortsightedly on my part, I did not foresee a complete capitulation from the Congress, giving Trump full leeway to do whatever he pleased.

Only the judicial system has resisted his most unconstitutional moves and we have yet to see how that plays out. Early indications are that the Trump administration expects that the Supreme Court will totally, or mostly, rule in his favor citing the power of the Executive in ways that such power has never been defined in our history. Should the Supreme Court not support the president as being able to do whatever he feels like doing, I fully expect him and his administration to ignore the ruling. We already see that in the way that they ignore and disparage federal judges everyday and claim that a single judge cannot overrule the president, especially when the president is acting in the role of commander-in-chief. As a result, Trump and others in his administration call judges that rule against him, “radical leftists” and that they are issuing “unlawful” orders and that they have “no authority” to block the executive branch. As a result, Trump and many others have called for the impeachment of many of those that have ruled in favor of the Constitution rather than in favor of Trump. As we all know, the federal judges thus far have been issuing temporary restraining orders in order to further understand the government’s case and to have a full hearing, where, you know, actual facts can be presented. If the government does not like the decision, there is recourse to an appeal.

It is worth reminding everyone, because apparently we have collectively had the wool pulled over our eyes, that Executive Orders are not laws. They do not have the force of law unless we react to them as if they are. They are policies. Policies can be over ridden in Congress or deemed unconstitutional by the courts or changed or cancelled with the stroke of a pen. Additionally, an unelected South African co-president has no power under the Constitution.

All of this is emblematic of a plan I did not fully appreciate. When Trump and his Project 2025 acolytes talked about removing the “deep state” I knew what they were talking about but did not appreciate the full extent of what that meant — even though they told us straight out what that meant.

It was not just weeding out allegedly unproductive federal workers or political appointees that tempered Trump’s most weird policies, it meant getting rid of the entire bureaucracy and replacing it with a small cadre of loyalists. Period.

It also meant that “deep state” really meant what they call “elite.” The Project 2025 zealots are using Trump to reshape America. In their view, everyone in a position of power or influence in the fall of 2024 (and for decades before that) were members of the deep state. Universities, cultural institutions, museums, entertainment companies, television programs, public schools, law firms, military organizations, and on and on have all been instruments of the so called radical left. They all must be destroyed and then reimagined to match the Project 2025 vision and become subservient to the all powerful executive. I knew it intellectually, they told us over and over they were going to do it and Trump campaigned on it, but I don’t think I internalized it. In their minds, those around Trump are literally on a mission from God. (We can discuss whether Trump is using them, or they are using Trump. He has no ideological underpinnings. His goals as president are uninhibited power, money and retribution.)

They have attacked nearly every corner of our society and now it is the economy. They want to party like it’s 1897. (Trump has become enamored of our 25th president William McKinley. I am not sure he knows that President McKinley was assassinated in 1901 in Buffalo NY.) He said as much in the Rose Garden when he announced the tariffs aimed at destroying the world order that served us so well for the last eight decades. He clearly has no understanding of history as he claims tariffs made the U.S. prosperous (the Gilded Age — he calls it the Golden Age) and that income taxes implemented in 1913 ruined the country. We can see where this is going. The Robber Barons of his “Golden Age” were the rich, powerful white men that ran the country and became fabulously wealthy on the backs of the working class (much of America). Think the cottages of Newport RI. So, following his logic, he and today’s robber barons (the billionaires with which he has surrounded himself) should run the country. Taxes equal socialism. It is taking money from the rich (billionaires) and giving it to the poor (in the form of roads, public schools, food banks, health care, social security, regulating pollution, and so on.)

Thus, his stated plan to eliminate or reduce income taxes because tariffs will make up the difference. (The math does not work. The US collects just over 3 trillion dollars a year in taxes. The best, some say wildly optimistic, projection by his administration is that tariffs will bring in about 600 billion dollars a year.) However, if one eliminates aid to the poor people overseas, aid to Americans, and just about every social program that we have come to rely upon as a nation — the DOGE-bros at work — that saves money for the billionaires because taxes won’t be needed anymore. (Salaries to the workers are a very tiny fraction of the overall budget, not enough to meet their goal.)

It also saves money so that tax dollars can go to subsidizing Trump’s weekly golf outings at his own courses. So far he has spent 19 of his 74 days in office golfing (just over 25% of his time as president this term), at a cost of roughly 28 million dollars. So far.

At the end of the 19th century, Trump believes, the US got along quite nicely, thank you, without any entangling trade or security or military alignments. Why do we need them now? Let’s see how many of our friends and allies we can drive away from us. America First! We don’t need allies or trading partners. Of course we should go back to that era where most people had no running water, there was rampant disease, the lack of regulations resulted in the deaths of countless workers on the job, we built the Panama Canal (by God!) at the cost of thousands of lives, and the maximum range of weapons was about three miles. Just like now!

Whether through ignorance or Manifest Destiny, Trump’s fascination with Greenland shows his basic misunderstanding of a lot. Greenland is an autonomous territory of Denmark. Denmark is in NATO. The US is in NATO. An attack on one is an attack on all. There is a 1951 treaty between Denmark and the US for the defense of Greenland. If he is actually concerned about the vulnerability of Greenland, there are multiple existing ways to improve its defenses. Since he continues to insist that military force is an option, does he really intend to attack a NATO ally which would precipitate the rest of NATO coming to Denmark’s defense? (Putin is so excited at this idea that he can hardly sit still.)

Do you remember Trump’s logic during the pandemic? He wanted to stop all COVID testing because if there were no tests, there would be no COVID. So of course he still has that logic. Fire all the scientists and there is no climate change. Fire all the medical researchers and we do not need vaccines. Fire all the weather prediction folks and there are no more major storms, therefore it is possible to fire the folks at FEMA. Cut scholarships and poor people won’t have to get a higher education. Privatize K-12 schools and only the right people will be able to send their kids to get a good basic education. Want to go to a museum to learn about your heritage? Want to read a book about our black, brown, Asian and women heroes? Why? There is only one America so fire all the “woke” people working at the Smithsonian Institution and only allow Trump approved exhibitions. Subversive plays at the Kennedy Center? Make Trump the Chairman and only allow what he wants to be performed there. Prestigious law firms are defending people or issues you don’t like? Put out an Executive Order that essentially puts them out of business. Want to control the admissions policies at Ivy League Schools? Withhold billions of dollars in grant money, threaten to put them out of business and they will come around. Want to spread fear among the populace? Start abducting legal residents on the street because they co-authored an opinion piece in a college newspaper a year ago and send them to jail without access to an attorney, in defiance of a court order and hold them without due process. Accusations and “trust us” are enough to put anyone in jail without having committed a crime. And so it goes.

All of these things are happening now.

The most disappointing and discouraging thing of all? Prestigious law firms, Ivy League colleges, news organizations, businesses, groups with the fiscal and physical ability to resist these unconstitutional actions of the executive are caving to the Dear Leader. Not just giving in to Trump, but actually paying out millions of dollars in thinly disguised extortion money. Trump has a pretty good mob boss business going while the Project 2025 folks are achieving their goals. A symbiotic relationship between two forces that are destroying our Republic as we have known it for at least the last 80 years and ignoring the principles that have guided us from our earliest days as a nation.

So far, the dark forces are winning. Our democracy is “slip, sliding away.”

(Title from Paul Simon)