Let Freedom Ring

It is not merely for to-day, but for all time to come that we should perpetuate for our children’s children this great and free government, which we have enjoyed all our lives.

Abraham Lincoln in a speech to the One Hundred Sixty-Sixth Ohio Regiment –August 22, 1864

Tomorrow is the 249th birthday of the Declaration of Independence, a time to celebrate our nation and our heritage. On our way to our landmark 250th birthday, I cannot help but wonder what kind of nation we will be in a year.

As I write, the House is about to vote in favor of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) that incorporates provisions to rob the poor to pay the rich. Almost immediately, Trump and his Mar-A-Lago buddies will benefit. Their tax breaks and financial incentives will help to make billionaires and corporations richer. To pay for it, while still adding over three trillion dollars to the national debt over the next ten years, Medicaid and Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP — commonly referred to as food stamps) will be cut substantially, along with other programs. The Medicaid cuts alone impact 12 million Americans. Along with other changes to the Affordable Care Act, numerous projections all agree that about another four million Americans will lose their health insurance. Those 16 million Americans set to lose their health care are not the perpetrators of waste fraud and abuse as Trump constantly falsely claims. The OBBBA is devious. The bill has many critics — the aggregate of reliable polls show that only about 33 percent of Americans approve of the bill. Knowing that, MAGA Republicans wrote the bill so that the tax cuts for the rich take place in the near term, but cuts to social services don’t kick in until December 2026, after the mid-term elections. Digging deeper, it is apparent that more than those on Medicaid will be impacted. Medicaid funds are the main source of income in many rural hospitals and medical clinics, retirement homes and other institutions that take care of our poor and elderly. Without Medicaid, many will close. In those areas, whether or not you personally have insurance, where are you going to go to get healthcare even if you can afford it? Cutting back Medicaid by about a trillion dollars will also lead to the loss of jobs. Several studies calculate that 500,000 healthcare workers will lose their jobs over the next ten years as a result of these cuts.

The bill is about 900 pages long. I do not believe that as I write today, a single Senator or Representative knows everything that is in the bill. There so many other provisions installed to satisfy the many competing interests of MAGA Senators and Representatives that the impact — and surprises — from the bill will be felt well into the future. Some significant changes include, for example, increased financial rewards for fossil fuel companies while it penalizes clean energy companies to such an extent that experts are worried about the future viability of the programs. As a result, thousands of jobs will be lost in what is currently one of the fastest growing industries in the U.S.

With all of that, my biggest concern is the immediate impact on Immigration Control and Enforcement (ICE). Over the next four years, spending for Trump’s border security and mass deportation plans will increase to a total of 150 billion dollars. For example, the bill allocates 45 billion dollars for adult and family detention centers. That is up from the current 8 billion dollars. Look for more punitive detention centers such as the newly minted “Alligator Alcatraz” concentration camp. Just this week Trump and his factotums joked about how much “fun” living in the Everglades in cages without air conditioning would be. There are also equally significant increases in spending for more masked, unidentified men grabbing people off the streets and putting them into unmarked cars and sending them to jail without due process, a warrant or any other legal justification. Some who have lived here for decades, raising families, working hard and paying taxes even though they are not eligible for social security or many other tax payer funded services. By this time next year most of us will know or know of someone taken away for wanting to have a better life. This worries me a lot. I do not just worry about those that are currently being rounded up. I also worry about the rest of us — what if we look “foreign”? Will we have to carry our passports proving our citizenship just to go to the grocery store? Where does it stop as the Trump Administration digs deeper and deeper into our society to remove those who they decide do not belong here? We already have National Guard troops and combat Marines deployed in a peaceful Los Angeles. What other demonstrations of unleashed power are we going to see?

To my surprise, the Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) is helping him to change our societal norms. Last week it was a ruling on nation-wide injunctions and birthright citizenship. In Trump v CASA, Inc, the justices put serious restraints on the ability of a district federal judge to issue a national injunction. A good argument can be made that the practice of “judge shopping” and looking for an amenable judge to stop anything that a particular group opposes should be eliminated. Practically speaking, however, really? This was the case that they chose? A violation of the Constitution? (Trump issued an Executive Order ending birthright citizenship under the 14th Amendment.) Not to mention that the Biden Administration tried several times to get the SCOTUS to take up the issue and they never did. (According to the Congressional Research Service, 28 nation-wide injunctions were issued during President Biden’s term.) There are arguments for and against these injunctions. The system was beginning to be abused. However, it seems to me that a case involving a president trying to eliminate a Constitutional right by fiat should not be limited to the plaintiffs that brought the case. The Court did delay their decision for thirty days so that the plaintiffs could pursue other avenues to address the issue. Without going into the legalese, legal experts disagree on how effective those work-arounds might be. One, is to file a class action lawsuit, however this SCOTUS has been continually refining and narrowing what cases are allowed under a class action. No one knows what will happen going forward. The result? Probably chaos. Trump always takes advantage of the loopholes in any ruling or law and then lies about it. Right now twenty two states, and some immigrant rights groups, have sued to stop Trump’s Executive Order. Does that mean at the end of July Trump can start taking away the citizenship of those in the other 28 states that are citizens by birth? How do you or I prove we are a citizens? Trump is also threatening to denaturalize citizens that oppose him. Whether we agree with his critics or not, we do not kick citizens out of the country because of their political views. This is part of a larger administration effort to punish people for exercising their First Amendment right to free speech. Trump is also threatening to send US citizens to “shithole” third countries because of their beliefs. He says he will only send hardened criminals (there are already laws to imprison criminals in the US) but he gets to define who is a criminal.

Congress is impotent and unwilling to challenge him in any way. I had hope that the judicial system would temper him and keep his wildest impulses in check, but now SCOTUS says only they can do so. Not district courts or appellate courts. So in one sense, those courts are now exhibition matches because only the SCOTUS has the authority to rule on Executive Branch actions. By the way, on this court are the same people that said Trump as president is immune for prosecution no matter what he does in an “official” capacity. (Trump v United States) He has already shown a willingness to pardon hardened criminals if they do his bidding. Scary.

While we were not paying attention because of all of the drama surrounding the OBBBA, this week the Trump Administration withheld 7 billion dollars in education funds the night before they were to be disbursed. Those funds were duly appropriated and authorized by Congress. Once again Trump is going against the law. As a result, tens of thousands of summer programs and adult education and other activities to help kids and adults are cancelled. In addition the teachers, counselors and others have lost their jobs. This is yet another test of the 1974 Impoundment Control Act that Trump and his Project 2025 henchmen unilaterally declare to be un-Constitutional. Their belief is that the Executive Branch has sole discretion on how to spend funds appropriated and authorized by Congress.

Also this week, while few were paying attention, Trump severely limited military aid to Ukraine even as Russia mounts a major offensive and continues the largest aerial attacks of the war. Why would any of our friends or allies trust us?

In every instance I see the increasing power of the Executive Branch as they ooze into areas that give them more and more power. Appease Trump (bribe him — I am looking at you Paramount Studios), you get what you want. Oppose him for any reason and you are vilified, investigated, shut down or otherwise pursued in retribution. (“I am your retribution.” — 2024 campaign slogan) As time goes by he feels untouchable and ever more powerful.

Looking back over our 249 year history, clearly our country has been in some tough spots before and survived. We will eventually get through Trump, but I fear that it could be at least a generation of hard work to get back to where we were just a year ago. I cannot predict how things will look a year from now. When I put together everything that is happening (and the above is only a part of what is happening right now), however, along with his continued claims that the 2020 election was stolen and therefore election “reform” is necessary, I do not think that those of us that care, about our freedoms, our rights and our fellow human beings, are going to like it.


Peace Or No Peace?

In many situations, two things can be true at the same time. Looking at the events unfolding over the last two weeks in the Middle East demonstrates how this premise applies.

Last Saturday, the United States bombed three locations in Iran that were known to be associated with Iran’s nuclear weapons program. The ability to strike with lethality and accuracy anywhere in the world was aptly demonstrated by the attacks on Fordo, Natanz, and Isfahan in Iran. 125 military aircraft were involved including refueling tankers, escort fighters and seven B-2 stealth bombers that dropped fourteen GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators (MOP) or “bunker busters” on targets. At the same time, U.S. Navy submarines launched about thirty precision guided Tomahawk missiles at Isfahan. No aircraft were lost. No Americans were killed or wounded. By every standard, there is no doubt that the American military pulled off a wildly successful surprise attack on their assigned targets. We should all be proud of their skill, persistence, fortitude and valor. It was a tactical success in every way. However, was the mission accomplished? Were the Iranian nuclear facilities destroyed and their nuclear weapons program halted or at least delayed for many years?

We do not know.

The president announced within hours of the attack that the Iranian facilities were “obliterated.” There is no way he could know that. Many in his cabinet use the same or similar words to continue to describe the success of the mission. They revile anyone that questions their conclusion by calling them un-American and disrespectful to the courageous airmen and sailors that conducted the attack. As is usually the case with this administration, they are more concerned with the drama and self-congratulations than they are with the facts, with which they often only have a passing familiarity.

General Dan Caine, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff (CJCS) is more cautious, professional and deliberate in his descriptions. Until a complete account of the Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) can be made, we simply do not know the extent of the damage or even whether the targets of the bombing — enriched uranium and the centrifuges used to make it — were at the sites that we attacked. The attack was successful — bombs on target and everyone came home — but we do not know if the mission was successful — no more Iranian nuclear program. The only way to be absolutely sure is to inspect the sites on the ground. That is not going to happen. The bombing certainly crushed any hope of a short term resumption of discussions to allow inspectors, such as from the International Atomic Energy Association (IAEA) into the area. U.S. inspectors will not be able to go there, either. Of course there are numerous other ways to feel fairly confident of the results. Spies on the ground (it appears that the Israelis had numerous people in key places prior to their own attacks), intercepts of Iranian military and government communications discussing the damage that was caused and assessing their own ability to respond to the attack and other elements of intelligence trade craft that can give a fairly robust picture of what happened. That can take days or weeks before the Intelligence Community (IC) can say with confidence that they have a comfortable assessment.

With that in mind, the revelation yesterday on CNN, and soon widely reported elsewhere, that the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), the intelligence agency for the Pentagon, assesses that the Iranian nuclear program was only set back about three to six months rather than years or being “obliterated”. That report caused quite the uproar. For those reading the fine print, the DIA assessment was a preliminary report of “low confidence.” Such reports are often issued soon after an operation to give decisionmakers an outline of what may be needed in the near term should follow up actions be necessary.

There have been rumors/reports that the Iranians moved significant quantities of enriched uranium and centrifuges before the attack. It is thought to be enough to keep their program going. Similarly, although the Israelis killed several top Iranian nuclear scientists in their sleep, they cannot kill everyone and they cannot kill the knowledge of methods and practices that they have learned with their program thus far. Do not discount the possibility that the Iranians are also getting technical assistance, and perhaps even material, from their friends in North Korea and Russia.

Stopping Iran from having a nuclear program is not as easy as launching one bombing attack, no matter how audacious or successful that one attack may be. Wishing it so, shouting it so, demanding that the “scum” in the media stop asking how does the administration know, doesn’t make it go away. Saying that “nothing” can survive fourteen 30,000 pound bombs does not mean it happened. (May I remind everyone that the U.S. Northern Command (NORTHCOM) shares a headquarters with the North American Aerospace Command (NORAD) in Cheyenne Mountain near Colorado Springs Colorado. Completed in 1967, the command and control facility can withstand a nuclear attack. Surely the technology and know-how to build such a complex could be accomplished by other nations sometime in the ensuing 58 years.)

To me, a great big “tell” happened yesterday. The House and Senate were to receive briefings on the Iranian program and Saturday’s attack. When the news broke about the DIA assessment, the briefings were cancelled. One can only surmise that the administration knew that their brief would not hold up under questioning since the audience would be aware of the CNN report.

There are numerous additional questions surrounding the entire state of affairs. Director of National Intelligence (DNI) Tulsi Gabbard testified under oath before Congress that the Iranians did not have the capability to build a nuclear weapon (people also forget that it is not enough to have a nuclear capability — a country must be able to weaponize the material and, often forgotten in the discussions, have a means to deliver it against an adversary. Not an easy task.) Trump said she was “wrong.” Multiple times in the last few days he has made it clear that he does not believe in, or listen to, anyone that tells him something he does not want to hear, regardless of the sources or methods used. This is unbelievably dangerous. Vice President J.D. Vance on Sunday said that the president and his advisers “trust their instincts.” Holy cow. We entrust our security and safety to instincts rather than analysis and facts? I feel better already.

I also have every expectation that political appointees in the IC will start requiring intelligence reports to conform to Trump’s preconceptions or politically expedient explanations. They have already done so while rationalizing the use of the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to round up immigrants. I am sure people will be fired at the DIA after the leak of their report yesterday.

There are, of course, issues surrounding this attack and the War Powers Resolution of 1973 (also called the War Powers Act). Many members of Congress are calling Trump’s decisions un-Constitutional because only Congress can declare war. The Resolution calls for the president to brief Congress within 48 hours of military action if he acts on his own. This administration is ignoring the law. (Again.) Traditionally, the administration briefs the Gang of Eight prior to undertaking operations such as the attack on Iran. They did not brief them. (The Gang of Eight are the leaders in the House and Senate of both political parties along with the Chair and Ranking Member of the House and Senate Intelligence Committees).

In reality, wars are only resolved through negotiations. We will see if the U.S., Israel and Iran can figure out a satisfactory settlement. I am skeptical. A cease-fire is a very tenuous thing. There is a long way to go before anything is settled. Israel still sees Iran as an existential threat and besides wanting to end Iran’s nuclear program they would also like to see the religious zealots ruling Iran disappear — regime change. Iran still has its government and is still determined to erase Israel from existence.

The Iranians responded to the U.S. attack by launching missiles against the U.S. air base near Doha Qatar. It was really just a sound and light show — the Qataris, U.S. and U.K. (at a minimum) were given a heads up and they shot down the incoming missiles with no deaths or injuries. Do not expect that face saving demonstration to be the end of it from the Iranian perspective. The Trump administration thinks in terms of news cycles and then it is on to the next shiny object. The Iranians (Persians) have a long and proud history and consider themselves to be the root of civilization in the region (Arabs are poor nomads with no culture, according to the Iranians). They will be taking the long view and have the patience to wait out their enemies. The only wild card is the internal politics of both Israel and Iran. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu keeps himself in power (and possibly out of jail) by keeping the wars going in Gaza and elsewhere. Will he honor the cease-fire once the U.S. resupplies his military? (At the expense of Ukraine. We only have so much in our stockpiles.) Will the people of Iran leave their government in place or will they rise up and try to install a new generation of leaders? It is still a very volatile situation and will be for quite awhile.

So many questions right now. So few answers.


War In Iran

For almost a week, Israel and Iran have exchanged bombs, missiles and drones causing damage and casualties, military and civilian, on both sides. Israel initiated the conflict when it attacked Iranian nuclear facilities and took out most of the leadership in the Iranian military and Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as well as many of the leading scientists working in their nuclear program. According to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Israeli intelligence agencies believe that the Iranian nuclear program was on the brink of producing one to fifteen nuclear weapons. Since Iranian leaders vow to erase Israel from the face of the earth, the Prime Minister viewed these developments as an existential threat and attacked. (Some politico-military analysts are debating whether it was a “preemptive” strike — meaning an Iranian attack was imminent — or whether it was a “preventive” strike — meaning there was no immediate danger but the Israelis wanted to make sure there was no chance of Iran developing a nuclear weapon. For most of us, that matters little, but under international law, it has significance.)

There is a long history behind the current conflict. For many years, Israel, the United States, and indeed the world worried about the religious zealots in Iran obtaining nuclear weapons. Presidents of both parties have vowed that they would prevent it from happening. Additionally, Iran was the main supporter of terrorism in the world. (They are still a supporter of terrorism, but their proxies in Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis have been greatly diminished and Syria is no longer in Iran’s sphere of influence, limiting their reach, but not their ability to strike.) In 2015, President Obama negotiated the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) with Iran along with support from China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and Germany (known as the P5+1). In brief, the JCPOA limited Iran’s nuclear weapon program as verified by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in exchange for sanctions relief. Trump withdrew from the plan in 2018, re-imposing sanctions and Iran has been ramping up its nuclear efforts since then. Trump was negotiating a “new” agreement with Iran that looks very much like the one that he withdrew from in 2018. Prime Minister Netanyahu denounced the JCPOA from the beginning and lobbied the current administration not to strike any agreements with Iran.

Israel continues to insist that the Iranian nuclear weapon capability was imminent. U.S. and U,K. intelligence sources, according to open press reports, assess that Iran is still not able to produce a weapon. Interestingly, the U.S. Director of National Intelligence (DNI) Tulsi Gabard testified before Congress in March that our intelligence agencies assessed that Iran was not capable of building a nuclear weapon. Yesterday, when asked about that assessment, Trump publicly contradicted his DNI, saying “I don’t care what she said” and avowing that he believed Mr. Netanyahu. (As a side note, if I were the DNI my resignation would be on the president’s desk about five minutes later. But we all know how this administration works. She is still in office.)

It is hard to know exactly what brought us to this point as both the Trump and Netanyahu administrations are not very forthcoming nor particularly truthful, and of course, military operations should remain classified until executed — unless you are Pete Hegseth — so it is only in retrospect that things look clearer. That said, from where I sit, it appears Prime Minister Netanyahu boxed Trump in before he could produce a “deal” with Iran. Emboldened by their successes in Gaza, Lebanon and Syria, Mr. Netanyahu saw that he had an opportunity to attack, had the forces to execute it, and wanted the world to be confronted with a fait accompli. There was no turning back. To date, the Israelis have inflicted significantly more damage on the Iranians than the other way around.

As yet, the U.S. is not involved. As yet. At least publicly.

There are some hard choices ahead for a president that campaigned by saying that he would keep us out of new wars in the Middle East. “America First” is interpreted by many MAGA voters as meaning no foreign wars in support of other nation’s interests. It is doubtful that Israel can continue to pursue its objectives without U.S. support. There are several reasons for that. Israel uses primarily U.S. weapons systems, aircraft, anti-ballistic missile defense systems, ammunition and other equipment. They do not have an unlimited supply. Giving more support to their efforts could get the U.S. involved whether by design or by accident. It also further diminishes our support to Ukraine as supplies are directed away from the Ukrainians and to the Israelis. Which is something that really does not bother Vladimir Putin even though Russia supports Iran — tough choices. Sorry Ayatollah.

Always looming on the horizon is direct U.S. military action against Iran. While prepared, no military planner that I know about relishes that idea. The reality is that Israel cannot completely destroy the Iranian nuclear program without destroying the main Iranian nuclear facility in Fordo, a small community near Qom. The facility is built in to a mountain and is considered extremely difficult to destroy. Current Israeli Air Force and missile capabilities cannot seriously damage it, unless they use one or more of their own nuclear weapons. That is an entirely different discussion. It is conceivable that Israeli special forces could attack it on the ground, but that is highly risky and is probably not on the table right now, especially because there is another option. The U.S. Air Force could deliver a “bunker buster” bomb — properly known as the GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP). It is a 30,000 pound GPS guided bomb launched from a B-2 Stealth Bomber that is believed to be able to penetrate at least 200 feet against concrete, rock or earth before it explodes. Multiple MOPs can be used to go even deeper, if necessary. The only aircraft capable of delivering the bomb is the U.S. B-2. We cannot just supply Israel with it. There are 19 B-2s in the inventory and they are based at Whiteman Air Force Base in Missouri. They have demonstrated their world-wide ability to strike during previous conflicts having flown 34 hour combat missions from Missouri to Libya and back in 2017 using in flight refueling, for one example.

It is a cliche to say that we go to war with the president we have — good, bad or indifferent. Trump has a big decision to make, although it seems hard to believe that he totally understands what is going on. For example, his social media post yesterday directed at Iran said only “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!” Which raises many serious questions about his state of mind. For the record, there are extremely few historical examples of “unconditional surrender” with the last one being Japan at the end of World War II.

There is a case to be made for the U.S. to bomb Iran. From where Iran sits, they now see that they are in dire need of a credible deterrent. Without a nuclear capability they have been exposed as defenseless. Should the bombing stop short of a significant impact on their nuclear program, they have every incentive to accelerate the program and procure one as quickly as possible. One could argue that now is the time to finish the job. Kick them while they are down, so to speak, so that no one has to come back later to finish what could have been done now.

The danger inherent in such U.S. involvement is extreme. Not in the short run, the U.S. could take casualties in any operation but given the current state of Iran’s air defenses, the risk would be assessed as acceptable. The real danger is long term. How does Iran retaliate against us — for they will retaliate in some form or another. What are our strategic goals? Simply to destroy or significantly delay the nuclear program? Trump has been speculating on social media about regime change — assassinating the Ayatollah and other Iranian leaders. Iran is a country of over 90 million people, many of whom resent the regime that has been in place since 1979. However, that does not mean that they want the U.S. or Israel to eliminate their government. Who takes charge? Under President George W. Bush the U.S. thought that bringing down Saddam would be easy and result in a free and democratic Iraq. While most Iraqis were glad to see Saddam gone, they were just as unhappy to see U.S. forces do it and remain in their country. We know what happened there. What to do in Iran?

This is where it gets tricky. It is one thing to bomb Iran, it is another to deal with the aftermath. It seems that Mr. Netanyahu knows how to play to Trump’s biases and ego. He has him nearly ready to provide support to the Israeli mission to destroy Iran. But what does that really mean and what is the long term commitment? Take a look at Gaza. Mr. Netanyahu’s objective there was to eliminate Hamas. That conflict has turned into what appears to be a long term goal to destroy everything in Gaza. Apparently the only way to eliminate Hamas is to eliminate every Palestinian that lives there — either kill them or move them. That campaign has gone on much longer than what was militarily necessary. What are the plans for Iran?

Wars are easy to start but hard to end. We need look only at our own history. I do not trust our president or his senior advisers to think through the totality of their actions. Looking tough seems to be their only goal. That is not good enough. There are sound strategic, geo-political and military arguments to use our forces to decimate Iran’s nuclear program. It is the “what’s next” question that I have not seen anyone in the administration thinking about. How does this all end?


It’s Starting

“I tasted a little tear gas — tasted like fascism.”

An unidentified protester in Los Angeles in a street interview on CBS on 8 June 2025.

Starting last Friday, protests in Los Angeles have continued in response to Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) actions to apprehend undocumented immigrants. The protests started small, but have grown in reaction to the federal government’s response to the unrest. It seems that Trump (aka TACO — Trump Always Chickens Out, a name given to him in an article about tariffs in the Financial Times) seized upon this development to embrace his attempts to try and show how tough he is. His poll numbers and national support are dropping sharply in all areas except immigration. Therefore, he wants to make immigration his central focus in order to drown out all the criticism of all of the other parts of his agenda that are failing.

While it is true that playing to his base is one of his main motivators, it is not all that he is doing, nor is it the most important. We as a nation are on the brink of losing our democracy to an autocratic regime that has no patience for criticism and is willing to take extreme measures to achieve their goals.

It is extremely ironic, not to mention hypocritical, that a man that is a convicted felon, adjudicated sexual offender and well known draft dodger (“bone spurs”) who pardoned over 1500 people that brutally attacked law enforcement officers in an insurrection designed to keep him in power after he lost an election, is now screaming about law and order and pushing for the harshest punishments for anyone that even bumps into a law enforcement official. The leaders of the Trump regime are immune to feelings of hypocrisy and shame.

Let there be no doubt. Violence, looting, destruction of property are all crimes and people should be held accountable for any form of criminal activity, whatever “heroic” actions they may think that they are taking. However, the vast majority of the protesters are acting peacefully, if forcefully, to express their dissatisfaction and fears for their safety and the safety of their family, friends and neighbors. California is the fifth largest economy in the world — all by itself. Los Angeles is the biggest city in the state. It has a diverse, well integrated economy that relies on immigrants in every aspect of social and economic activity. It is a majority-minority city — meaning white people comprise less than half of the population. Estimates put the number of undocumented immigrants in the greater Los Angeles area as being about a million people. ICE and other Trump regime members claim that they are only going after hardened criminals. Yet another lie. Finding and arresting hardened criminals is difficult, time consuming and expensive. When Trump’s deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller (a white nativist) tells the ICE and other federal law enforcement officials that they must arrest 3,000 people a day or else they are fired (the bottom ten percent of field offices each month), those officials are going to go for the easy pickings. Day workers outside of Home Depot. Construction sites. People coming in for their immigration hearings or other appointments in accordance with our laws and their asylum or citizenship requests. As I and many others pointed out before Trump took office, many people now in the administration were saying that anyone that is here illegally is breaking the law and therefore is a criminal. We should not be surprised. They told us what they were going to do but no one believed them. That is what is happening in Los Angeles. ICE raided the parking lot of a Home Depot scooping up day workers and then raided the garment district. That is how the protests started.

According to NBC news, and other sources, Mr. Miller already directed 5,000 federal law enforcement officers to augment ICE and other Department of Homeland Security (DHS) efforts to round up immigrants. This includes FBI agents, Alcohol Tobacco and Firearms (ATF) agents, Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA) personnel, U.S. Marshalls and many other agencies. First, none of those officers have been trained to apprehend immigrants. Second, their reassignment creates huge gaps in our ability to conduct anti-gang investigations, break up drug cartels, provide counter-intelligence and generally keep our country safe and secure. Instead we are arresting moms and high school kids and other long term, law abiding, tax paying members of our society. Their only focus is on immigration and looking “tough.”

Which brings us back to what I am afraid is really going on. The protests in Los Angeles and the sporadic violence that broke out was ably and effectively controlled and monitored by the LAPD and the Los Angeles County Sheriff’s Office. They are trained, equipped and expert in handling protests bigger than what was happening in the beginning. They did not need outside help, and if they did, there were thousands of other area law enforcement officers available to help them under mutual aid agreements that most counties and cities have with jurisdictions in their areas.

Instead, the president mobilized two thousand National Guard troops. The desired result was achieved. Instead of calming things down — which any right minded leader would have as their objective — it exacerbated the situation and tensions increased. In my view, Trump was hoping for exactly what happened. Things got worse. When they got worse, his lackey in the Pentagon decided to send in a battalion from the U.S. Marine Corps base in Twenty-nine Palms California (about 700 Marines). Why do that? First, local law enforcement officials said that they could handle it. Second, 2,000 National Guard troops were there. Third, the California National Guard has about 18,000 members. If those on the ground needed help why not mobilize more National Guard personnel? He did it for many reasons — political, precedent, court tests and because Trump thinks that the U.S. military is his personal armed force. (He loves to play with “his” toys. There is a massive display of military power on tap for Saturday 14 June. It is the Army’s 250th birthday (happy birthday soldier!) and coincidentally Trumps 79th birthday. Washington DC is already closing down and Reagan National Airport will be closed during the parade. Totally disruptive. I will only note that the Navy (October) and Marine Corps (November) are also celebrating their 250th birthdays this year. No parades are scheduled.)

Here is why I think Trump and his henchmen and women are purposely escalating this situation. It is a dress rehearsal for bigger and better (in their minds) use of the military under the Insurrection Act of 1807, essentially martial law. Immigration enforcement is a political winner for this administration. It is also a fig leaf for trampling on the Constitution. It is no coincidence that Trump’s foray into this test case took place in California, a deeply blue state with a powerful governor that Trump happens to hate. If he can get away with it there, then he can go after other blue states that anger him (watch out Maine.)

California Governor Gavin Newsom did not request that the National Guard be activated and sent to Los Angeles. The president did so on his own, the first time since 1965 that a president has done so. (In that instance President Lyndon Baines Johnson activated the Alabama Guard to protect peaceful civil rights protesters being harassed and beaten by Alabama law enforcement officers. What a turn around today.) Of course in those 60 years the National Guard has been called out in a variety of circumstances, but always only upon request from the state’s governor.

I am not a Constitutional expert nor any kind of attorney, so I will not get into all of the U.S. codes covering the use of the military domestically. In brief, it is legal for the president to call up the National Guard and to deploy the Marines. However, under the law, they are only to be used for force protection (guarding buildings and the like) and support services (logistics, communications, transportation, and so on). Under a U.S. law known as the Posse Comitatus Act, federal military personnel cannot be used for civilian law enforcement purposes. (Ironically, if the governor had mobilized the Guard, they could be used in that way, but since now that they are federal military forces, they cannot.) I will vouch for the fact that the Marines being sent in have had absolutely no training in crowd dispersal, riot control or any other element of dealing with protesters, unless one or two were previously law enforcement officials. Probably the first time they had ever held a baton and shield in crowd control formation like the pictures show, was yesterday. What could go wrong? This is not the Marine’s mission. They are only there to show how “tough” the Trump regime can be. Some might say cruel, but then we know that when it comes to this administration, fear and cruelty is the point. One prays that an anxious young Marine or excited young protester doesn’t do anything stupid. It could all go down hill fast. Some of us remember what happened at Kent State University in Ohio when National Guard troops opened fire on unarmed war protesters in 1970.

Language is important, precision is important, especially when it comes to the law. Trump and his cohorts are aggressively using the word “insurrection” in their barrage of comments about the evil people of Los Angeles. They are not insurrectionists, of course. No one is trying to overthrow the government. However, there are several reasons for that. One, perhaps the least important, is an attempt to change the narrative and re-write history concerning the attack on the Capitol building on 6 January 2021. Those were insurrectionists, but Trump and the MAGA crowd want you to think otherwise which is why they continue to call them “patriots” — as if Trump even knows what that word means.

Second, the provisions of the Posse Comitatus Act allow for the military to be used in law enforcement under the provisions of the Insurrection Act of 1807. Remember that Trump wanted to invoke that law during the protests following the murder of George Floyd in 2020. He wanted to direct the military to shoot protesters in the legs. The then Secretary of Defense (SECDEF) and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs (CJCS) refused to implement his requests and true to his TACO form, he backed down. Thankfully. Who is there now telling him that what he has in mind is wrong? No one. SECDEF Pete (DUI Hire) Hegseth certainly will not. DHS Secretary Kristi (ICE Barbie) Noem certainly will not. Attorney General Pam (Police State Barbie) Bondi certainly will not. I don’t know about the current CJCS but I am worried that we have heard nothing from any source as to any mitigating recommendations senior uniformed officials are making. Crickets so far. Trump’s senior civilian officials seem to be competing amongst themselves to see who can impress the boss the most with their cruel and demeaning behavior.

Immigration is a legitimate issue. The system has been broken for a long time. In 2024 there was a legitimate bi-partisan effort in Congress to try and untangle the mess in a fair, but practical way. Trump killed it during his campaign because he thought that it was his best issue to win re-election. It appears he was right. Now he can use it as a handy tool anytime anything else goes wrong in his administration. Think of all the things that he was going to change/solve/fix in his first 24 hours/month/100 days. None of them happened. But with actions such as he is taking in California, and pretty much around the country, he can say he is doing what the electorate wanted by cracking down on undocumented immigrants. He has a winning political issue and the enablers in his administration, the Project 2025 crowd, have a willing enforcer to Make America White Again.

Only about ten percent of his term has gone by. Stand by for what is coming. This is just the start.


The Authoritarian Playbook

Recognizing that we live in unsettled times and that sometimes the rhetoric seems out of control, I needed a gut check to see if my concerns about our fading democracy were legitimate or if they were the product of an overly imaginative mind — was it a reality or merely a possibility that we are on a path to autocracy?

In researching the myriad works available on how authoritarianism takes over democracies, I read numerous theories, checklists, historical analyses and the like but found one, in particular, that seemed to me to be clear, succinct and relevant to what I see happening in these United States. In a series of social media posts in 2017, all ending with the tag “with love, your Eastern European friends,” Martin Mycielski discussed the tenets of authoritarianism and the tactics and methods with which it is imposed. He also posted ways to push back — to resist. His posts became internationally acclaimed and in March, 2018 they were collected in the Authoritarian Regime Survival Guide. The information below draws heavily on that guide. The entire thing can be found here. It is relatively short and worth a look.

The authoritarian’s check list looks like the following:

  • Win the election on fear and populist promises.
  • Reclaim power for the People from the “elites.”
  • Purge the highest positions in key government institutions.
  • Place cronies in the positions of highest power regardless of their competence.
  • Brush off any critical press as “fake”, “corrupt”, “acting against the People.”
  • Blatantly lie to the People.
  • Ban the press from the parliament/Congress/White House or selectively limit their access.
  • Limit press freedom and quietly take control of the mainstream media.
  • Label opposition and protesters as “traitors”, “elites trying to reclaim power.”
  • Limit freedom of assembly.
  • Fix the highest court to be able to bypass the Constitution “for the good of the People.”
  • Limit minority and women’s rights.
  • Ruin the economy to fulfil your populist promises in the short term.
  • Alienate international partners and allies, “making your country great again.”
  • Quietly fix electoral law under the disguise of making it better.
  • Start over until there’s nothing left…

For those keeping score at home, it appears that the Trump Administration is at about a 72 percent completion rate with efforts underway to make it 100 percent.

Within the playbook are some key factors to consider because those of us that pay close attention already see these elements at work. For example, the aspiring autocrat will be elected following a fear mongering campaign in a fair and free election. Once in office, the administration will counter any criticism with the claim that they have a “mandate” from the electorate to change the system. In so doing they will lie, obscure the truth, and substitute fear and emotion for logic and knowledge. Claiming that democracy means majority rule, racial or sexual or other minorities will be treated as a threat to the order they seek to enforce. Foreigners and immigrants will be promoted as potential threats and therefore they should be removed from the land. Gender equality will come under siege as the society is dominated by men. They will attack the judiciary as “monsters” or “left leaning judges with a liberal agenda” in order to undermine the Rule of Law and to enable the enactment of unconstitutional measures. By controlling the judiciary and Department of Justice they can prosecute anyone or any organization that tries to push back against the regime. The list goes on.

Can’t happen here? Few people, including in the House of Representatives who voted for it, know that The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) has provisions in it that have nothing to do with taxes or healthcare or any of the other headline grabbing issues. In it is a provision that would effectively strip the power of the courts to hold any official of the current administration in contempt of court — the only real power that the courts have to ensure that their decisions are followed. If enacted in the final bill, it is a huge blow to the equal branches of government enshrined in the Constitution by severely hobbling the federal judiciary.

Another little known provision in the OBBBA prohibits state and local authorities from enforcing laws governing the use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) for ten years. The real intent of this provision is to impact elections. Misinformation, fake ads, accusations of election interference, deep fake videos, and all the rest that comes with the negative use of AI can easily confuse or discourage voters and thereby impact the results of the election. Why include it in the OBBBA if there are no plans to do this very thing?

In the end, my concern over the future of our democracy is only growing stronger. The threat is real. I, for one, am tired of Democrat politicians, pundits, political analysts and the rest talking about how “history will not look kindly on this administration.” They don’t care. (Which really is the motto of the MAGA politicians — “we don’t care” about anything or anyone except themselves.) Likewise, I am tired of all of the talk about a big backlash to the MAGA agenda come the 2026 and 2028 elections. I wonder what the talking heads are smoking. First of all, the Democrats cannot seem to get their act together to put up a viable resistance and effective policy alternatives that can get people’s votes. But, there is still time for them to get it all together.

More to the point, what kind of elections do we think we will have in 2026? I am not 100 percent convinced that we will have elections in the coming years. Probably, but not certainly. I do know this, MAGA politicians are acting like, repeat with me, they don’t care. They do not seem concerned about their actions impacting their re-election. Why is that? That leads to my deeper concern which is that I doubt that the elections will actually be free and fair. State governments controlled by MAGA politicians are working feverishly to restrict the numbers of people that can vote, especially in “blue” and urban areas of their states. Congress (see above about AI, for example) and the Trump Administration are working just as hard to alter the vote. Congress is trying to pass the SAVE Act that would require voters to prove that they are U.S. citizens by showing a passport or other form of identification. The alleged motive is to ensure that there are no illegal voters, even though study after study shows consistently that the number of illegal voters are so miniscule as to be nearly non-existent. Certainly, no election was decided by illegal votes. (States already have laws making it a crime to vote illegally.) The president issued an Executive Order that effectively gives him the power to set the parameters of who can vote and under what conditions — a clear violation of the provisions in the Constitution. (The order is under a court ordered stay while the issue is adjudicated.) In brief, the type of documents required to be able to vote would disenfranchise millions of voters (most people do not have a passport, women that marry and take their husband’s name would have a different name on their birth certificate, etc.). It also puts new requirements on military personnel and American citizens living overseas that will be onerous to fulfill and thereby limit the number of those voters. It requires states to decertify certain types of voting machines (used in 39 states) and replace them with machines that meet new federal standards — machines that do not currently exist. What could go wrong?

Most people do not know about these direct attacks on our democracy. They will probably not pay much attention until it directly impacts their own daily lives. By then it may be too late. For those of us following and understanding these developments how do we start to fight back? A little bit at a time, one by one, until a great sea of concerned citizens becomes too big to ignore. Bombard your Representatives and Senators — Republican, MAGA or Democrat — with questions, complaints and reasoned dissatisfaction. As far as you are able, attend rallies, especially those out in the open on the streets of our cities and towns. Talk to your friends, neighbors and families. Not to argue with them or to convince them of how wrong they are but rather to learn what they find attractive, or not, with the MAGA agenda and to educate (not preach) them about issues or policies that they may not know exist.

To answer my question to myself from the opening of this piece, yes, I think the threat is real.


Corruption Reigns Supreme

As Trump continues to consolidate his reign as king, corruption in every sense of the word is spreading through his administration and it is damaging our country and making us less safe.

The examples are numerous, but this example explains what I mean by making us less safe. Last week, two of the most experienced and knowledgeable people in the intelligence community were fired by the Director of National Intelligence (DNI) Tulsi Gabbard. Her actions explain both why we are less safe and why she got the job despite being woefully unqualified for the position. The combined U.S. intelligence community (IC) consists of eighteen agencies and organizations across the government (FBI, CIA, NSA, DIA, etc.) that support their individual communities but also provide collection and analysis that is aggregated into national assessments that inform the president and other top officials in making their decisions. In February, the IC produced an assessment concluding that the government of Venezuela was not controlling the gang known as Tren de Arugua (TdA) to attack the United States with an “invasion” of gang members to destroy our country. Remember that the Trump administration based their rendition of individuals to the notorious CECOT prison in El Salvador on the Alien Enemies Act of 1789, a war time provision used only three times in our history. The claimed invasion by Venezuela through TdA is the legal basis for the administration’s actions. No invasion, no legal basis. Top officials in the ODNI were directed to redo the assessment to support Trump’s unfounded claims. The IC took another look and provided more information, but repeated their conclusion that TdA was not invading the U.S. at the direction of the Venezuelan government. The top two officials responsible for the final product were fired because they would not cook the books to make Trump look good. This is not just bordering on dangerous, it is a huge klaxon horn of an alarm that no one is safe. How can we expect our security agencies to protect us if the senior officials in our government will only accept assessments and recommendations that fit their preconceived outcomes? Just like the witch in The Wiz proclaims, the directive from above is “don’t you bring me no bad news!” If you do, you are fired. Scores of senior, experienced people through out our national security community are resigning or being fired because they refuse to lie.

The president’s financial corruption is staggering. The Trump family is estimated to have received close to three billion dollars since taking office. I have written in this space before about their crypto coins and meme coins which bring them millions in “handling costs” whether the coins go up or down in value. The peak (depth?) of the corruption knows no bounds. Tonight, the top 220 investors in Trump’s meme coin ($TRUMP coins to be exact) will dine with the president at his club in northern Virginia. They bought about $148 million worth of coins in the contest and over half of the purchasers are from outside the United States. The top 25 “investors” spent about $111 million and will receive a special VIP reception with Trump and each will get a Trump Tourbillon priced at $100,000. The top donor is the China born Justin Sun who spent $18.5 million. He was seen in the Executive Office Building next to the White House today. Oh, yeah. He is also the top investor in the Trump family’s crypto platform World Liberty Financial. Coincidentally, the Security and Exchange Commission paused its investigation into Mr. Sun’s fraud case and is expected to drop it entirely. Just another day in the life of a mob boss.

One more example, if I may, of the extraordinary grift underway by Trump. (One wonders how he has time to run the government and protect our nation since he spends so much time lining his pockets. Oh. Wait. He puts his financial interests ahead of national security. If you doubt it, take a look at his recent trip to the Middle East. Coincidentally, his sons were recently there making billions of dollars in family “deals” — not national deals — with each of the countries that Trump visited.)

By now you no doubt have heard about the Qatar government’s “gift” to Trump of a luxurious 747 airliner to use as Air Force One. (Technically, any airplane of any make or size is Air Force One if the president is on board. It is a call sign used for communicating with air controllers. The Marine helicopter used by the president has a call sign of Marine One.) The New York Times reports that originally, the Qataris were going to sell it to the United States. They had been trying since 2020 to get rid of it because of its cost and limited utility to the Emir. The Air Force has two Boeing 747s on order to replace the existing presidential aircraft. However, they are way behind in the production schedule and may not be available until 2028 when, supposedly, Trump will leave office. He wants something now to keep him ensconced in luxury like an Emir or king — a level he fully expects to receive. (” We’re the United States of America. I believe we should have the most impressive plane.”) The plane was flown to Florida in February and when Trump toured it, he was immediately and fully all in to have it. How it became a $400 million “gift” is unclear. But this week, the Air Force took possession (it has been in San Antonio for weeks already) on behalf of the “American people.” Right. Especially since Trump claims it will go to his presidential library when he leaves office. There are many safety and security issues to be resolved before it can be used. Some experts think it may take years and close to a billion dollars to get it ready — essentially dismantling the aircraft and rebuilding it to military specifications. If nothing else, one must assume that it is riddled with listening and other intelligence collection devices installed by the Qataris and/or other intelligence agencies. Unless, of course, the commander-in-chief over rides the national security and safety experts and uses it regardless of any concerns. As is clear, national security is the least of his worries as long as he is getting rich and being treated like a king. The Constitution? What about it? Just because Article I, section 9 of the Constitution says “No title of Nobility shall be granted by the United States: And no Person holding any Office of Profit or Trust under them, shall, without the Consent of the Congress, accept of any present, Emolument, Office, or Title, of any kind whatever, from any King, Prince, or foreign State” doesn’t mean it applies to Trump. Besides, the Attorney General of the United States said it was legal. She should know because her lobbying firm earned $115,000 a month from the Qatari government.

There is more, but you get the drift, or should I say, grift. Trump thinks he is a king, wants to act like a king, and thinks he should be treated like a king. Personal financial gain outweighs any concern for national security. Congress is a natural barrier to our president taking on the trappings of a monarch but the MAGA faithful fall into line when ordered. Look no further than the House of Representatives passage of the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act.” Yes. That is the actual name of the bill. In sum, it is loaded with off the wall provisions and paves the way to rob the poor (cutting Medicaid and SNAP — food stamps) to pay the rich (more tax breaks for the top individuals and corporations). If you don’t think that it is loaded with disturbing provisions, then why were hearings literally held at one in the morning and the final vote was conducted over night? Sure must be proud of it.

“Corruption is paid by the poor.” — Pope Francis (2014)


Appeasement Never Succeeds

“Stopping the war, stopping from taking the whole country, pretty big concession.”

Trump on 24 April 2025 when asked in the Oval Office as to what concessions Russia is offering to bring about the negotiated end of its war on Ukraine.

It has been clear for some time that the U.S. position on the war in Ukraine is the same as Russia’s. We have now switched sides in negotiations to end the conflict. Trump and his advisors put the blame on Ukraine and President Vlodymyr Zelenskyy for starting the war and for its continuation. Facts be damned, it is the way that Trump says it is and he is hopping mad that the Ukrainians will not give in to his demands.

Russia invaded Crimea, a part of Ukraine, in early 2014 following in the wake of the ouster of then Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych — a Russian proxy. Special forces personnel in unmarked uniforms — the “little green men” as they were dubbed at the time — seized key positions throughout the region and Russia formally annexed Crimea on 18 March 2014. Although the invasion was condemned throughout much of the world, Russia continues to claim that Crimea is rightfully theirs. This was the first step in Vladimir Putin’s plan to regain Ukraine in his quest to restore the Russian Empire.

Step two was the rise of pro-Russian paramilitary groups in the Ukrainian regions of Luhansk and Donbas in the spring of 2014. The Ukrainian military sought to retake the area and a long bloody stand-off ensued. Russia continued to arm, train and support the separatists in the conflict, with the intent of eventually retaking all of Ukraine.

Step three was the full-scale invasion of Ukraine by Russian special forces and regular army forces on 24 February 2022. Mr. Putin declared that it was necessary to conduct a “special military operation” to protect the people in eastern Ukraine and to remove the “neo-Nazis” in charge of the Ukrainian government. Those officials, according to Mr. Putin, were conniving with NATO to invade Russia and were developing nuclear weapons to use against Russia. The Russians had a duty to attack and bring about the “demilitarization and denazification” of Ukraine. The surprise attack failed and a long and bloody conflict continues.

As a candidate for president, Trump declared that he could end the war in Ukraine in “24 hours” — maybe even before he took office. He now claims that his repeated statements were a “joke.” A joke that covered the deaths of tens of thousands.

No formal direct talks have taken place involving Russia, Ukraine, Europe and the U.S. sitting down together for serious negotiations. Instead, the U.S. is trying to force Ukraine to accept a “deal” put together by Trump and his administration — some of whom were staunch advocates on behalf of Ukraine and its independence. Now they seem to have gone all in on Trump’s support of Russia against Ukraine. (I’m looking at you, Mr. Secretary of State.)

Here is the “deal” that Trump is trying to force on Ukraine.

  • Both the U.S. and Ukraine recognize that Crimea is formally part of Russia.
  • Ukraine cede its territory now occupied by Russian forces in eastern Ukraine to Russia.
  • Ukraine promises to never join NATO.
  • No European or NATO forces can enter Ukraine to ensure its security.
  • U.S. military aid to Ukraine will be suspended.
  • The U.S. will be given access to rare earth minerals in Ukraine to “repay” the aid that they have received in their fight against Russia.
  • The U.S. lifts most sanctions against Russia imposed for its repeated aggression against Ukraine.
  • The U.S. and Russia will resume formal diplomatic and trade relations which were disrupted following the Russian invasions.

There may be more to which we are not privy. Trump changes his demands on a whim. The deal gives Mr. Putin everything he wants without even having to negotiate. Russia and Ukraine have had past security agreements that the Russians violate at their discretion. The Ukrainian experience is that any security agreement with Russia is worthless.

Not surprisingly, President Zelenskyy has refused to accept these terms. He has agreed to Trump’s proposal of a 30 day cease fire, but the Russians continue to put up road blocks to its implementation until they get what they want. So far, Trump has put little pressure on Mr. Putin (unless you count the occasional social media posts asking “Vladimir” to stop bombing civilians in Ukraine.) One might ask as to why the Russians would negotiate anything if Trump has already given them all that they want (for now) without having to do anything other than not take over the whole country?

Here is the topper. If a peace deal is not accepted “soon” the U.S. will “walk away” from the whole thing, according to Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Vice President J.D. Vance. No one is sure exactly what that means. If it means the end of military and intelligence support to Ukraine — which Trump already temporarily suspended once — then we would be walking away from helping a democracy in Europe under attack by a dictator and allowing the continued destruction of Ukraine and the loss of countless civilian lives.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is the largest conflict in Europe since World War II. NATO was meant to prevent one nation from forcefully invading and taking over another sovereign nation. Originally aimed at the Soviet Union, now Russia, it also has diplomatic and military impact throughout the world. Walking away from our commitments makes us less safe and is a direct threat to our own national security.

Let’s put it plainly. Trump loves Putin. Trump sides with Putin. Trump will throw Ukraine to the wolves if he thinks it makes him look good to Putin. Putin knows exactly how to play Trump to get whatever he wants. Trump handing Ukraine to Putin will undermine the world order that has basically kept the peace for eighty years. We will be in a destabilized world where everything is on the table.

If Trump follows through on his plan to appease Mr. Putin and hand over Ukraine it is likely to have long term consequences that will rate a place in history alongside British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain’s “peace in our time” appeasement of Adolf Hitler that led to World War II. In his mind, Trump will be awarded the Nobel Prize for bringing peace to Ukraine. (Not a joke. He talks about it. A lot. Probably because President Barack Obama was awarded a Nobel Prize. It drives him crazy.) In fact, he will be setting the stage for continued conflict.

This is not a prediction. It is looking at history and the current geo-political alignment of nations. If Ukraine accedes to Trump’s/Putin’s demands, and with the rest of NATO uncertain how to proceed, Putin will reconstitute his forces and then seize the rest of Ukraine. (Ukraine will resist, but without significant help they cannot defeat Russia over the long haul.) Putin will then turn to the Baltic States to “protect Russians” living in those countries and to “relieve” the pressure on the Kaliningrad Oblast — a part of sovereign Russia surrounded by the Baltic Sea, Lithuania and Poland. The Baltic States and Poland are members of NATO. Should they be attacked, then Article V of the NATO Treaty comes into play — an attack on one member is an attack on all. With an “America First” policy, it is unclear if the current U.S. administration would follow through on our commitment to NATO. Regardless, just like in the 1930’s, appeasement leads to large scale war.

Is this a worst case scenario? Of course. But not so far fetched. Mr. Putin has opined for decades that the worst event in the 20th century was the dissolution of the Soviet Union. He has vowed in many different forums and formats that his goal is to restore the power and grandeur of the Russian Empire. Ukraine is just the first piece of the puzzle. Any former Soviet Republic should be looking over their shoulder at the Russian bear that is preparing and planning to bring Putin’s dream to fruition.

I have no idea where Trump’s infatuation with Mr. Putin begins. We can speculate to our heart’s content but after all of this time, we all know that regardless of the cause, it exists. We can also see where it is headed if Trump continues to blame Mr. Zelenskyy for the Russian invasion and if he continues to force him to bend to Mr. Putin’s will. From where I sit, Mr. Zelenskyy and the entire Ukrainian people are not wimps. They will not go willingly into any agreement that they know will lead to their destruction as a nation. The European Union and NATO are gearing up to step in to help Ukraine if the U.S. abandons them. It is unclear where that leads or whether Ukraine can prevail without U.S. guarantees. Right now, Mr. Putin thinks he can wait out the U.S. and that he will eventually prevail against Ukraine — at great economic and military cost — but he knows he will prevail. It will be a lot easier with U.S. help.


No One Is Safe

Nur für Deutsche” (“Only for Germans”)

Signs posted during World War II in Nazi Germany and occupied territories

“America is for Americans and Americans only!”

Stephen Miller at a New York City rally for Trump on 27 October 2024. He is now the Deputy Chief of Staff for Trump in charge of immigration.

Yesterday I stumbled upon a live press availability in the Oval Office where Trump and the president of El Salvador Nayib Bukele (the self proclaimed “world’s coolest dictator” — you can’t make this stuff up) held forth about a variety of issues. Among them, Trump declared that the war in Ukraine was President Biden’s (“he should never have let it happen”) and President Zelenskyy’s fault (“you don’t start a war against someone twenty times your size and then hope that people give you some missiles”), spread Russian propaganda, lied about the Supreme Court, congratulated himself on his trade war with our allies and friends, and opined about sending U.S. citizens to the most dangerous prison in the western hemisphere in El Salvador. (More on that in a minute.) All of that is to name just a few of the embarrassing and yet terrifying remarks that he made. To me, it was an unmistakable declaration of his belief that he was already the autocrat he always yearned to be. It was literally a jaw dropping moment as I realized how much trouble we are in as a nation that used to be dedicated to the rule of law.

The Trump Administration brings an entirely new level of craziness and ignorance into our lives every day. As the president and his minions challenge our long standing traditions and norms in every area of our national lives — from the economy to foreign affairs — there is one thing in common to all of it. The correct questions to ask are does Trump or his family financially benefit from his actions? If not, which of his cronies do? As Anne Applebaum points out in her article “Kleptocracy, Inc” in The Atlantic magazine, Trump knows that he can get away with anything. After all, he is a convicted felon that tried to overthrow the government and suffered no meaningful consequences. Why worry about silly things like conflicts of interest or blatant financial dealings that enrich the president? Who is going to stop him? Manipulate trade laws to crash the stock market, bring it back, and then have his family and friends profit from possible insider trading? Why not? But, just to make sure, Trump suspended enforcement of a long list of checks and balances on our financial system that prevent illegal activity. His actions now allow for nearly unfettered corruption, graft, greed and bribery to flourish. Too harsh? Look up “World Liberty Financial” as an example of the many ways he is making money off of the presidency. It is the Trump family cryptocurrency business that he set up just after his re-election. Anyone can contribute to it at any time. A perfect front for taking bribes.

The country, including you and I, are, to use a technical term, screwed.

But even as I watch my 401(k) disappear, the grift and graft are not my biggest worries with the Trump administration. I am most worried about the loss of our rights under the Constitution. We are well on our way to having our worst nightmares realized.

As with the case of Kilmar Abrego Garcia, a Maryland father married to a U.S. citizen picked up off the street and sent to the notorious Centro de Confinamiento del Terrorismo (CETCO) in El Salvador, none of us appear safe anymore. The Trump Administration claims that the Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) declared in a 9-0 unanimous decision that under the Alien Enemies Act of 1798, the president has unfettered rights to do as he pleases with regards to national security and foreign affairs. In fact, the SCOTUS declared nothing of the kind. They ruled that the U.S. has the obligation to “facilitate” the return of Mr. Garcia from El Salvador as he had no criminal record anywhere, was protected from deportation to El Salvador by a court order, and three administration officials declared, under oath, that his banishment to CETCO was an “administrative error.” The government argues that he is a member of a dangerous gang without producing any evidence to support their claim. Besides, they argue, he is now in El Salvador, therefore U.S. courts have no jurisdiction and the U.S. government cannot just go and get him. Not surprisingly, President Bukele said that he would not release Mr. Garcia.

Please let me get this straight. Trump started a trade war, threatens to invade Greenland and Panama, turn Canada into the 51st state, says he can end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours, and yet he is too weak to convince a two bit dictator (who is getting paid by the U.S. to keep prisoners in CETCO), to release one man?

Why is this important? Two big reasons. The Trump administration is clearly ready to defy SCOTUS if they don’t like a particular ruling, and it is currently unclear whether or not SCOTUS will insist on the administration following the law. Second, if the administration can claim that once somebody is sent to El Salvador the U.S. has no further way to bring that person home, even if they were sent in error, then what is to prevent them from “accidentally” picking up a U.S. citizen, sending them to El Salvador and then claiming that, as Bukele did on social media when this all began, “Oopsie….. To late.”

Yesterday Trump asked Bukele to expand CETCO with five new buildings so that he could make even more people disappear into the depths of that hell hole including what he calls “home grown criminals” — American citizens. Is that legal? Not under our Constitution. Can “mistakes” happen? Who knows? What we do know is that nearly every action that Trump has taken since his inauguration runs counter to what we had come to assume was “normal” for our democratic republic. Instead, his administration has declared “emergencies” in every area of our lives to put into place whatever policy suits their fancy.

Everyone in the U.S. is entitled to due process under the Constitution, no matter their status. The Trump administration sees no need for such legalities when they are dealing with anyone they deem a threat — as they define it. Apparently, they are the only ones that can define the threat. Note that we already have laws that deal with illegal immigration, deal with criminals and provide the ability to lawfully deal with people that are a threat to our security. Trump refuses to use existing legal means, probably because they know that there is no legal basis to do what they are doing.

Mr. Garcia is the example that demonstrates where this administration is going. Last week they declared roughly 6100 immigrants as “dead” in the Social Security system. They range in age from 13 to 80 and are here under a variety of legal policies. The intent is to get them to self-deport. Here is what happens when the Social Security Administration puts one into the dead system. Not only do you lose social security benefits (which most immigrants pay into but if they are illegal, they get no benefits out) but banks, landlords, credit card companies and numerous other financial and social systems immediately drop you out of their systems. You cannot work. Need cash from your savings account for food? Sorry, you don’t need to eat, you are dead! How do you self deport? By going to an immigration judge and letting them know. Easy. Except if ICE is also there and picks you up before you see the judge, holds you incommunicado and sends you to CETCO.

Apparently the Trump administration is focusing on students studying in U.S. colleges either on a student visa or with a green card. Several hundred students have been deported or refused re-entry into the U.S. for various reasons — usually because they are alleged to have taken part in demonstrations (even if peaceful) protesting the Israeli government’s treatment of Palestinians. The administration’s announced plans to scour the social media postings of all 1.2 million foreign students in the U.S. and deport those alleged to have remarks deemed “antisemitic” or critical of U.S. policies. The government will decide who meets those criteria without defining them.

Let’s come back around to sending “home grown” criminals to CETCO. Last week Trump signed two Executive Orders targeting two of his former first term administration officials. One is Christopher Krebs who was the cyber security official that oversaw the 2020 election. He declared it the safest, most secure election in the history of the U.S. The other official is Miles Taylor who was the chief of staff in the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) during Trump’s first term. Mr. Krebs is in trouble because Trump still claims that the 2020 election was rigged (really? still?!) and therefore Mr. Krebs is facilitating the falsification of the election results. Mr. Taylor wrote an anonymous op-ed for the New York Times, and later a book, detailing how crazy things were within the Trump administration’s first term. Trump wants the DHS and the Attorney General to investigate and prosecute the two men. (Talk about politicizing the DOJ!) Here’s the rub. Trump declared that what they did, especially Mr. Taylor, was “treasonous.” The maximum punishment for treason is death. Does that make Mr. Taylor a “monster criminal” and if so is he eligible for permanent incarceration in the gulag known as CETCO? Where does it stop? He has said that the former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs General Mark Milley committed treason by not doing everything Trump wanted him to do in his first term. Does he go to CETCO?

We might only be surprised by our lack of imagination on just how far this administration is willing to go.

Trump continues to sign Executive Orders attempting to put powerful law firms, that have in some way or another irritated him, out of business. Sadly, so far many of them have caved to Trump and crawled to the Oval Office to kiss his ring. As a result, Trump has amassed the promise of roughly one billion dollars in pro bono legal services for his causes. Whatever those may be. He only cares about himself, so I guess these law firms will give Trump nearly unlimited legal advice and support for whatever strikes his fancy.

The deputy chief of staff Stephen Miller publicly stated that his goal was to deport one million people by the end of 2025. (The dirty little secret is that despite the hype and high profile cases, so far the Trump administration has deported slightly fewer people than the Biden administration did over the same time period. The Biden administration followed the law.) That means that they are planning to deport people that are here legally. Just declare that groups of people (Haitians, Venezuelans, Ukrainians, pick your group) no longer have special legal status to stay in the U.S. and you have a target rich environment to start deporting whomever you want. Asylum seekers, green card holders, student visa holders, just pick a group. Were I a naturalized citizen I would be paying close attention. One man with a legal green card was arrested Monday while attending a scheduled meeting on how to become a naturalized citizen.

My sense is that they literally want to deport every man, woman and child that is not a born in the U.S.A. citizen. Although even that may not be enough if Trump succeeds in over-turning the 14th Amendment, which he is already trying to do.

No one is safe. Congress remains supine in worship of Trump and have abdicated their responsibilities under the Constitution. We thought that the judicial branch would step into the breach but it is not clear to me that they will. The SCOTUS seems hesitant to directly challenge Trump and his administration. Perhaps they know that Trump will ignore any ruling with which he disagrees and therefore they do not want to give him that opportunity. I do not know. I am out of the prediction business, but I can read and listen and see what is happening and I am very concerned.

I take solace in the fact that we are not Hungary, or Turkey or Russia. We have a tradition of democracy and most of us will not give it up easily. My concern is that the muscle memory of most Americans assumes that politicians come and go but life pretty much continues as it always has. That just is not true today. Big changes are ahead. What they are I know not, but we all need to pay attention.


“Slip Sliding Away”

“We won with the poorly educated. I love the poorly educated.”

— Donald J. Trump in a victory speech after the Nevada caucus in 2016

While I, and many others, warned of the likely devastation that a second Trump administration would bring, I, at least, while not surprised at what is happening, am shocked at the depth and breadth of his total frontal assault on our democracy. He told us what he would do, but I was not sure that he would be able to pull it off, especially in such a short time frame. Of course, shortsightedly on my part, I did not foresee a complete capitulation from the Congress, giving Trump full leeway to do whatever he pleased.

Only the judicial system has resisted his most unconstitutional moves and we have yet to see how that plays out. Early indications are that the Trump administration expects that the Supreme Court will totally, or mostly, rule in his favor citing the power of the Executive in ways that such power has never been defined in our history. Should the Supreme Court not support the president as being able to do whatever he feels like doing, I fully expect him and his administration to ignore the ruling. We already see that in the way that they ignore and disparage federal judges everyday and claim that a single judge cannot overrule the president, especially when the president is acting in the role of commander-in-chief. As a result, Trump and others in his administration call judges that rule against him, “radical leftists” and that they are issuing “unlawful” orders and that they have “no authority” to block the executive branch. As a result, Trump and many others have called for the impeachment of many of those that have ruled in favor of the Constitution rather than in favor of Trump. As we all know, the federal judges thus far have been issuing temporary restraining orders in order to further understand the government’s case and to have a full hearing, where, you know, actual facts can be presented. If the government does not like the decision, there is recourse to an appeal.

It is worth reminding everyone, because apparently we have collectively had the wool pulled over our eyes, that Executive Orders are not laws. They do not have the force of law unless we react to them as if they are. They are policies. Policies can be over ridden in Congress or deemed unconstitutional by the courts or changed or cancelled with the stroke of a pen. Additionally, an unelected South African co-president has no power under the Constitution.

All of this is emblematic of a plan I did not fully appreciate. When Trump and his Project 2025 acolytes talked about removing the “deep state” I knew what they were talking about but did not appreciate the full extent of what that meant — even though they told us straight out what that meant.

It was not just weeding out allegedly unproductive federal workers or political appointees that tempered Trump’s most weird policies, it meant getting rid of the entire bureaucracy and replacing it with a small cadre of loyalists. Period.

It also meant that “deep state” really meant what they call “elite.” The Project 2025 zealots are using Trump to reshape America. In their view, everyone in a position of power or influence in the fall of 2024 (and for decades before that) were members of the deep state. Universities, cultural institutions, museums, entertainment companies, television programs, public schools, law firms, military organizations, and on and on have all been instruments of the so called radical left. They all must be destroyed and then reimagined to match the Project 2025 vision and become subservient to the all powerful executive. I knew it intellectually, they told us over and over they were going to do it and Trump campaigned on it, but I don’t think I internalized it. In their minds, those around Trump are literally on a mission from God. (We can discuss whether Trump is using them, or they are using Trump. He has no ideological underpinnings. His goals as president are uninhibited power, money and retribution.)

They have attacked nearly every corner of our society and now it is the economy. They want to party like it’s 1897. (Trump has become enamored of our 25th president William McKinley. I am not sure he knows that President McKinley was assassinated in 1901 in Buffalo NY.) He said as much in the Rose Garden when he announced the tariffs aimed at destroying the world order that served us so well for the last eight decades. He clearly has no understanding of history as he claims tariffs made the U.S. prosperous (the Gilded Age — he calls it the Golden Age) and that income taxes implemented in 1913 ruined the country. We can see where this is going. The Robber Barons of his “Golden Age” were the rich, powerful white men that ran the country and became fabulously wealthy on the backs of the working class (much of America). Think the cottages of Newport RI. So, following his logic, he and today’s robber barons (the billionaires with which he has surrounded himself) should run the country. Taxes equal socialism. It is taking money from the rich (billionaires) and giving it to the poor (in the form of roads, public schools, food banks, health care, social security, regulating pollution, and so on.)

Thus, his stated plan to eliminate or reduce income taxes because tariffs will make up the difference. (The math does not work. The US collects just over 3 trillion dollars a year in taxes. The best, some say wildly optimistic, projection by his administration is that tariffs will bring in about 600 billion dollars a year.) However, if one eliminates aid to the poor people overseas, aid to Americans, and just about every social program that we have come to rely upon as a nation — the DOGE-bros at work — that saves money for the billionaires because taxes won’t be needed anymore. (Salaries to the workers are a very tiny fraction of the overall budget, not enough to meet their goal.)

It also saves money so that tax dollars can go to subsidizing Trump’s weekly golf outings at his own courses. So far he has spent 19 of his 74 days in office golfing (just over 25% of his time as president this term), at a cost of roughly 28 million dollars. So far.

At the end of the 19th century, Trump believes, the US got along quite nicely, thank you, without any entangling trade or security or military alignments. Why do we need them now? Let’s see how many of our friends and allies we can drive away from us. America First! We don’t need allies or trading partners. Of course we should go back to that era where most people had no running water, there was rampant disease, the lack of regulations resulted in the deaths of countless workers on the job, we built the Panama Canal (by God!) at the cost of thousands of lives, and the maximum range of weapons was about three miles. Just like now!

Whether through ignorance or Manifest Destiny, Trump’s fascination with Greenland shows his basic misunderstanding of a lot. Greenland is an autonomous territory of Denmark. Denmark is in NATO. The US is in NATO. An attack on one is an attack on all. There is a 1951 treaty between Denmark and the US for the defense of Greenland. If he is actually concerned about the vulnerability of Greenland, there are multiple existing ways to improve its defenses. Since he continues to insist that military force is an option, does he really intend to attack a NATO ally which would precipitate the rest of NATO coming to Denmark’s defense? (Putin is so excited at this idea that he can hardly sit still.)

Do you remember Trump’s logic during the pandemic? He wanted to stop all COVID testing because if there were no tests, there would be no COVID. So of course he still has that logic. Fire all the scientists and there is no climate change. Fire all the medical researchers and we do not need vaccines. Fire all the weather prediction folks and there are no more major storms, therefore it is possible to fire the folks at FEMA. Cut scholarships and poor people won’t have to get a higher education. Privatize K-12 schools and only the right people will be able to send their kids to get a good basic education. Want to go to a museum to learn about your heritage? Want to read a book about our black, brown, Asian and women heroes? Why? There is only one America so fire all the “woke” people working at the Smithsonian Institution and only allow Trump approved exhibitions. Subversive plays at the Kennedy Center? Make Trump the Chairman and only allow what he wants to be performed there. Prestigious law firms are defending people or issues you don’t like? Put out an Executive Order that essentially puts them out of business. Want to control the admissions policies at Ivy League Schools? Withhold billions of dollars in grant money, threaten to put them out of business and they will come around. Want to spread fear among the populace? Start abducting legal residents on the street because they co-authored an opinion piece in a college newspaper a year ago and send them to jail without access to an attorney, in defiance of a court order and hold them without due process. Accusations and “trust us” are enough to put anyone in jail without having committed a crime. And so it goes.

All of these things are happening now.

The most disappointing and discouraging thing of all? Prestigious law firms, Ivy League colleges, news organizations, businesses, groups with the fiscal and physical ability to resist these unconstitutional actions of the executive are caving to the Dear Leader. Not just giving in to Trump, but actually paying out millions of dollars in thinly disguised extortion money. Trump has a pretty good mob boss business going while the Project 2025 folks are achieving their goals. A symbiotic relationship between two forces that are destroying our Republic as we have known it for at least the last 80 years and ignoring the principles that have guided us from our earliest days as a nation.

So far, the dark forces are winning. Our democracy is “slip, sliding away.”

(Title from Paul Simon)


Amateurs, Clowns, And Our National Security

Yesterday in the Atlantic Magazine Jeffrey Goldberg wrote an article about how he was accidentally included in text chains over several days involving Cabinet level and senior administration officials discussing the United States’ military attacks on the Houthi rebels in Yemen on 15 March 2025. Let me say that again. Text chains. U.S. military attacks. Cabinet officials.

Unconscionable.

The Trump administration, through the National Security Council (NSC), verified that the text chains were authentic. Some supporters of the president are trying to claim that it was a “leak” and that the journalist involved was somehow dishonest or incompetent or just a plain old scoundrel. So much for integrity in government. It was neither leaked, nor stolen, nor obtained by some nefarious means. Someone in the government (likely National Security Adviser Mike Waltz) accidently included Mr. Goldberg in the text group. Indeed, Mr. Goldberg thought at first that it was some kind of trick, or someone was phishing him, or some other kind of entrapment to embarrass him. It was real. Hours before the Houthis were attacked, Mr. Goldberg knew exactly what was going to happen and when. Once he realized the full extent of what he was seeing, he notified the NSC and had himself taken off the group chat.

Mr. Goldberg had more integrity than those members of the administration involved could muster in their little finger. He did not reveal or publish the most sensitive details of the texts that included specific names, places, times, weapons, bomb packages and other information that could be used by an adversary to intercept or attack the U.S. military forces involved.

As a former military tactical commander and as an aide to senior members of the Department of Defense in the Pentagon, it is hard for me to get my head around just how wrong, dangerous, unprincipled and indefensible this is. From reading the parts of the transcript that were published, it is clear that senior members of the Trump administration use these means of communication to discuss sensitive issues on a regular basis.

Administration officials and MAGA members of Congress are trying to laugh it away as inconsequential because the mission was successful and are taking a kind of “no harm, no foul” approach to it all. One Senator opined that no “mom or dad” was losing sleep over the disclosure. I disagree. The parents of those that put their lives on the line for our country certainly care. They want to know that their loved one’s lives are not being frivolously wasted. The soldiers, Sailors, Marines and airmen certainly care. I hope that the members of the Joint Chiefs are slamming their fists on the Secretary’s desk and demanding answers. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth tried to use a technicality by saying that no “war plans” (as many in the press are referring to the information in the exchanges) were discussed. I can only assume that he is trying to get by on a technicality. In the Pentagon “war plans” are extensive, theater wide documents outlining actions tantamount to “big” wars such as invading Iran. To the general public, however, it was clear that they discussed what most people would consider to be war plans, as in combat operations — using very specific information. Nice try Pete. You aren’t on Fox News anymore.

Clearly our national security is in the hands of amateurs and clowns. More significantly it reveals how arrogant and smug the Secretary of Defense actually is in his day-to-day transactions. Apparently, senior members of this administration do not think that the rules apply to them. But of course the man at the top sets the tone for their total disregard for protecting our secrets. (There are other revelations in the exchanges including how much Vice President J.D. Vance and other Cabinet officials hate Europeans. And for decisions of such importance, there are unusually juvenile emojis used.)

The texts were on the app “Signal” which is advertised as encrypted. Not military or intelligence level encrypted, more like you don’t want your colleagues at work to know what you are saying about them encrypted. It is an open source service that anyone can download onto their phone. In no way is it authorized for sensitive, much less highly classified, military and intelligence information. A military member doing the same thing would be instantly fired and probably court martialed. Multiple national security laws were broken in the process of using unauthorized cell phones to communicate this information, not to mention that our laws dictate the retention of official communications and documents and this app destroys any exchanges after a given amount of time.

In an administration that actually cares about the safety of our troops, these conversations would have taken place over highly classified secure networks, or in person, in a secure area known as a SCIF (Sensitive Compartmented Information Facility). Cell phones are easily traceable and can be hacked without the owner knowing about it. Cell phones, Apple watches, and other personal devices are not allowed in a SCIF. (Without going into the details, the SCIF is not secure if there are personal portable devices inside.) Additionally, some of those in the chat group did not have a “need to know” the details of the operation. One needs a classified clearance to access sensitive information, but having a clearance, even the highest available, does not automatically mean access. One also has to have a need to know that information, as in it is necessary for the fulfillment of one’s duties or to make an educated decision.

At a minimum, the Secretary of Defense and the National Security Adviser should resign. I am not holding my breath. There is no respect for the rest of the country, our norms or even our laws with this group of cosplayers in charge of our national security. My guess is that no one will be held accountable, except possibly for a junior staffer who will be blamed for not saving the Cabinet members from themselves.

Thank goodness no one was killed as a result of this total disregard for the safety of our mariners and aviators on the front lines. It does seem obvious, however, that foreign intelligence services wishing to do us harm have probably been aware of this careless level of communications for some time. We can only guess what else they have learned.