Appeasement Never Succeeds

“Stopping the war, stopping from taking the whole country, pretty big concession.”

Trump on 24 April 2025 when asked in the Oval Office as to what concessions Russia is offering to bring about the negotiated end of its war on Ukraine.

It has been clear for some time that the U.S. position on the war in Ukraine is the same as Russia’s. We have now switched sides in negotiations to end the conflict. Trump and his advisors put the blame on Ukraine and President Vlodymyr Zelenskyy for starting the war and for its continuation. Facts be damned, it is the way that Trump says it is and he is hopping mad that the Ukrainians will not give in to his demands.

Russia invaded Crimea, a part of Ukraine, in early 2014 following in the wake of the ouster of then Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych — a Russian proxy. Special forces personnel in unmarked uniforms — the “little green men” as they were dubbed at the time — seized key positions throughout the region and Russia formally annexed Crimea on 18 March 2014. Although the invasion was condemned throughout much of the world, Russia continues to claim that Crimea is rightfully theirs. This was the first step in Vladimir Putin’s plan to regain Ukraine in his quest to restore the Russian Empire.

Step two was the rise of pro-Russian paramilitary groups in the Ukrainian regions of Luhansk and Donbas in the spring of 2014. The Ukrainian military sought to retake the area and a long bloody stand-off ensued. Russia continued to arm, train and support the separatists in the conflict, with the intent of eventually retaking all of Ukraine.

Step three was the full-scale invasion of Ukraine by Russian special forces and regular army forces on 24 February 2022. Mr. Putin declared that it was necessary to conduct a “special military operation” to protect the people in eastern Ukraine and to remove the “neo-Nazis” in charge of the Ukrainian government. Those officials, according to Mr. Putin, were conniving with NATO to invade Russia and were developing nuclear weapons to use against Russia. The Russians had a duty to attack and bring about the “demilitarization and denazification” of Ukraine. The surprise attack failed and a long and bloody conflict continues.

As a candidate for president, Trump declared that he could end the war in Ukraine in “24 hours” — maybe even before he took office. He now claims that his repeated statements were a “joke.” A joke that covered the deaths of tens of thousands.

No formal direct talks have taken place involving Russia, Ukraine, Europe and the U.S. sitting down together for serious negotiations. Instead, the U.S. is trying to force Ukraine to accept a “deal” put together by Trump and his administration — some of whom were staunch advocates on behalf of Ukraine and its independence. Now they seem to have gone all in on Trump’s support of Russia against Ukraine. (I’m looking at you, Mr. Secretary of State.)

Here is the “deal” that Trump is trying to force on Ukraine.

• Both the U.S. and Ukraine recognize that Crimea is formally part of Russia.
• Ukraine cede its territory now occupied by Russian forces in eastern Ukraine to Russia.
• Ukraine promises to never join NATO.
• No European or NATO forces can enter Ukraine to ensure its security.
• U.S. military aid to Ukraine will be suspended.
• The U.S. will be given access to rare earth minerals in Ukraine to “repay” the aid that they have received in their fight against Russia.
• The U.S. lifts most sanctions against Russia imposed for its repeated aggression against Ukraine.
• The U.S. and Russia will resume formal diplomatic and trade relations which were disrupted following the Russian invasions.

There may be more to which we are not privy. Trump changes his demands on a whim. The deal gives Mr. Putin everything he wants without even having to negotiate. Russia and Ukraine have had past security agreements that the Russians violate at their discretion. The Ukrainian experience is that any security agreement with Russia is worthless.

Not surprisingly, President Zelenskyy has refused to accept these terms. He has agreed to Trump’s proposal of a 30 day cease fire, but the Russians continue to put up road blocks to its implementation until they get what they want. So far, Trump has put little pressure on Mr. Putin (unless you count the occasional social media posts asking “Vladimir” to stop bombing civilians in Ukraine.) One might ask as to why the Russians would negotiate anything if Trump has already given them all that they want (for now) without having to do anything other than not take over the whole country?

Here is the topper. If a peace deal is not accepted “soon” the U.S. will “walk away” from the whole thing, according to Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Vice President J.D. Vance. No one is sure exactly what that means. If it means the end of military and intelligence support to Ukraine — which Trump already temporarily suspended once — then we would be walking away from helping a democracy in Europe under attack by a dictator and allowing the continued destruction of Ukraine and the loss of countless civilian lives.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is the largest conflict in Europe since World War II. NATO was meant to prevent one nation from forcefully invading and taking over another sovereign nation. Originally aimed at the Soviet Union, now Russia, it also has diplomatic and military impact throughout the world. Walking away from our commitments makes us less safe and is a direct threat to our own national security.

Let’s put it plainly. Trump loves Putin. Trump sides with Putin. Trump will throw Ukraine to the wolves if he thinks it makes him look good to Putin. Putin knows exactly how to play Trump to get whatever he wants. Trump handing Ukraine to Putin will undermine the world order that has basically kept the peace for eighty years. We will be in a destabilized world where everything is on the table.

If Trump follows through on his plan to appease Mr. Putin and hand over Ukraine it is likely to have long term consequences that will rate a place in history alongside British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain’s “peace in our time” appeasement of Adolf Hitler that led to World War II. In his mind, Trump will be awarded the Nobel Prize for bringing peace to Ukraine. (Not a joke. He talks about it. A lot. Probably because President Barack Obama was awarded a Nobel Prize. It drives him crazy.) In fact, he will be setting the stage for continued conflict.

This is not a prediction. It is looking at history and the current geo-political alignment of nations. If Ukraine accedes to Trump’s/Putin’s demands, and with the rest of NATO uncertain how to proceed, Putin will reconstitute his forces and then seize the rest of Ukraine. (Ukraine will resist, but without significant help they cannot defeat Russia over the long haul.) Putin will then turn to the Baltic States to “protect Russians” living in those countries and to “relieve” the pressure on the Kaliningrad Oblast — a part of sovereign Russia surrounded by the Baltic Sea, Lithuania and Poland. The Baltic States and Poland are members of NATO. Should they be attacked, then Article V of the NATO Treaty comes into play — an attack on one member is an attack on all. With an “America First” policy, it is unclear if the current U.S. administration would follow through on our commitment to NATO. Regardless, just like in the 1930’s, appeasement leads to large scale war.

Is this a worst case scenario? Of course. But not so far fetched. Mr. Putin has opined for decades that the worst event in the 20th century was the dissolution of the Soviet Union. He has vowed in many different forums and formats that his goal is to restore the power and grandeur of the Russian Empire. Ukraine is just the first piece of the puzzle. Any former Soviet Republic should be looking over their shoulder at the Russian bear that is preparing and planning to bring Putin’s dream to fruition.

I have no idea where Trump’s infatuation with Mr. Putin begins. We can speculate to our heart’s content but after all of this time, we all know that regardless of the cause, it exists. We can also see where it is headed if Trump continues to blame Mr. Zelenskyy for the Russian invasion and if he continues to force him to bend to Mr. Putin’s will. From where I sit, Mr. Zelenskyy and the entire Ukrainian people are not wimps. They will not go willingly into any agreement that they know will lead to their destruction as a nation. The European Union and NATO are gearing up to step in to help Ukraine if the U.S. abandons them. It is unclear where that leads or whether Ukraine can prevail without U.S. guarantees. Right now, Mr. Putin thinks he can wait out the U.S. and that he will eventually prevail against Ukraine — at great economic and military cost — but he knows he will prevail. It will be a lot easier with U.S. help.