The Kremlin Rules!

Posted: March 1, 2025 | Author: | Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Yesterday, 28 February 2025, was a day where you, me, historians, diplomats, and anyone else that cares about the role of the United States in international diplomacy will talk about as “before 28 February and after 28 February.” We now know that the convicted felon in the White House who tried to stage a coup to keep himself in power is totally, 100 percent behind Russia’s Vladimir Putin and against our long standing allies around the world. Trump’s and Vance’s ignorant display in the Oval Office yesterday reflected the essence of this administration — embarrassing, repugnant, vengeful, hypocritical, and extremely dangerous.

Trump invited President Zelenskyy of Ukraine to the White House yesterday. Ostensibly, the reason for the meeting was to discuss the possibility of Ukraine giving the U.S. access to the rare earth minerals believed to be in Ukrainian territory. (No one is exactly sure what or where those valuable minerals actually are as there are almost no mines actively recovering them and the existence of such minerals is based on a decades old map done by surveyors from the Soviet Union.) Instead, President Zelenskyy walked into an apparent ambush by Trump and his MAGA henchman J.D. Vance where they berated and harassed Mr. Zelenskyy while spreading lies and disinformation about the actual situation in Ukraine. (If you have not yet seen it, watch it here. The body language is as important as what is actually said. Or read about it here.) Note that J.D. Vance started the harangue. J.D. is usually not allowed to attend such meetings between Trump and foreign dignitaries (Trump doesn’t want to share the spotlight), which further indicates that he was part of some plan along with Trump to stick it to the Ukrainian. To his credit, Mr. Zelenskyy did not take the bait, stayed calm, and did not yell back at Trump. He did, however, resolutely stick to his position and to try and explain the dire situation that he and his nation are in because of Russian aggression. What really seemed to enrage Trump was when Mr. Zelenskyy tried to explain that no deal with Russia was worth anything without concrete security guarantees. Further, he warned Trump that if he made an unsecured deal with Putin, eventually the U.S. would be in danger. Trump tripped off the line and starting ranting about Hunter Biden, the Russia “hoax” that Putin suffered through, and countless other grievances that had nothing to do with the alleged negotiations at hand. In the end, Trump sounded exactly like a mafia Don threatening retribution on a business that refused to give him a cut. The point was to bully Mr. Zelenskyy in a dual attack in order to get him to concede to a deal to stop the war that would be exclusively favorable to Russia. Mr. Zelenskyy refused. The meeting ended with Trump ordering the press out of the office and saying, “This is going to be great television.”

What does this attack on Mr. Zelenskyy mean? Why would Trump take Russia’s side in the dispute since they are the clear aggressor and the war could end in one day by withdrawing the Russian and North Korean troops? Let’s take a look.

There is a difference between what things are and what things mean. This was a crude and very undiplomatic shouting match aimed at bullying one of our allies in front of the cameras. What it means is that the U.S. is no longer a reliable partner to our NATO allies and our friends around the world. It means that Trump supports the dictator Putin over the leader of a democracy suffering at the hands of an unprovoked aggressor. It means that Trump and Putin will probably work out some kind of “peace” deal without Ukraine having a say. It means that Russia will be encouraged to continue its quest to reestablish the Russian empire. It means that the U.S. is meaningfully less secure.

This is the biggest diplomatic change since the arrival of the United States on the world stage at the start of the Twentieth Century. We are now aligned with Russia who is aligned with China, Iran and North Korea. Countless leaders throughout the free world from Belgium to New Zealand lined up in support of Mr. Zelenskyy and his stance to defend Ukraine.

Where was Secretary of State Marco Rubio, known as an avid anti-Russian hawk? Slumped in a chair next to Vance looking very much like he wished he could disappear. Where was National Security Adviser Mike Waltz who as a Congressman was another anti-Russia, pro-Ukraine supporter? Missing in action. After the dust settled many, many of the MAGA crowd (there are no longer members of the Republican Party in Congress) chose to blame the melt down on Mr. Zelenskyy. They focused on the fact that he did not a wear a suit and tie (he goes everywhere in modified military gear to remind everyone his country is at war) and therefore he was disrespectful and argumentative. (Musk wore a ball cap and t-shirt to a Cabinet meeting in the White House earlier this week, but apparently he can do whatever he wants to do.)

Mr. Rubio and Mr. Waltz should resign. It is clear that they have no influence over Trump or American policy. But of course, they will not. They have been totally coopted. American foreign policy is no longer based on American values and strength. It is now based on the ignorant whims of one man who thinks he is a world player. Instead, he is getting played.

Why is Trump trying to destroy our role in the world by aligning with Putin? I have given this a lot of thought. Trump’s apologists come up with a myriad of reasons as to why he disparages our closest allies and cheers our enemies. He is a businessman. He knows the art of the deal. He is trying to get the EU to step up. It is part of “America First.” Blah, blah blah.

Of course, I am not on the inside so I do not know what takes place behind closed doors but here is what I think. There are only two conceivable scenarios at this point as to why Trump is turning our country over to Putin. The first is that he is actually an agent for Putin. He is trying to destroy our country from within (via Musk and his DOGE bros running amok) and without (throwing our allies under the bus). The Russians cannot believe their great fortune in his returning to the presidency. They are getting a great return on their investment. Can I prove this? Of course not. But there have been rumors since the 1980s that Trump was compromised and groomed to at least be sympathetic to Russia. Given his intellectual and psychological vulnerabilities, and his weakness for flattery, this is not too far fetched. Several uncorroborated reports have had at least four separate former KGB agents at different times reveal that there was a KGB operation, run by the then Czechoslovakian intelligence service, to groom him as a Russian supporter. It is known that many of his real estate deals were with Russian oligarchs buying properties at inflated prices. His first campaign manager Paul Manafort had known ties to Russian oligarchs and intelligence agents. All that said, this to me is the least likely of the options.

It is more likely that he has some simplistic medieval grand view where rich and powerful kings rule the world and their subjects show absolute fealty to him and carry out his every whim. He needs only confer with his fellow “kings” in Russia and China to decide how they will divide the world. Thus we do not need a federal civil service, the king and his lords will run the country. He does not need allies because he consorts with his fellow kings. Rich and powerful men know what is best. What is good for the king is good for the state. “L’etat, c’est moi” — “I am the state” — as King Louis XIV of France is said to have told the French parliament in 1655. In other words, he is an absolute monarch with complete power and not subject to Constitutional limitations. While some of you may think that I am stretching the analogy, and I doubt that Trump knows who Louis XIV was and wouldn’t care anyway, he is approaching his presidency as if he is the absolute ruler. As the absolute ruler he only needs to confer with other absolute rulers.

Whether or not he succeeds with this approach to governing, we will find out. What I am arguing is that this is his mind set and thus he acts in the ways that he does. As I have written in this space countless times, autocrats always tell you what they are going to do. They don’t always succeed, but they are going to try. Trump is telling us exactly what he wants to do and unlike in his first term, he has people around him that are willing to do it.

This is dangerous for many reasons, of course. In this particular case, and what President Zelenskyy was trying to tell Trump, is that he can not trust Putin. Once America repudiates our allies and removes itself from participation with our allies in NATO and elsewhere, Putin and Xi Jinping of China will work together to bring us to our knees. This is one of the things that infuriated Trump during the meeting. Mr. Zelenskyy told Trump that the U.S now “has a nice ocean” to protect us against Russia so we don’t “feel” Russian pressure or threats, but that “you will feel it in the future.” Trump exploded and said “don’t tell us what we’re going to feel.” Completely missing the point, but then he is not that sharp and he is intellectually uncurious. Flattery gets you everything with Trump. He is an easy mark for Putin and Xi who have been in this game for a long time.

The idea of the world being divided into “kingdoms” fits nicely with the Project 2025 playbook being implemented throughout the government as I write. Trump’s world view, Musk’s world view and that of the Project 2025 folks is that rich, powerful men became that way — became “kings” of their domains — because they are smarter and more ruthless and more capable than the rest of us. Therefore it is only logical that they should be in charge. This view is manifesting itself in the foreign policy arena with Ukraine as the example. Ukraine is relatively weak, especially compared to Russia, therefore they should submit and give Russia whatever they want in order to bring “peace” and “save lives.” Of course the Butcher of Bucha will only torture, rape and murder the good citizens of Ukraine should Putin take over.

Remember the day that it all changed. Even if Trump’s plans are thwarted, it will take a generation of hard work before our allies will ever trust us again.

The Era of American Weakness

Posted: August 27, 2019 | Author: | Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

It isn’t funny anymore.

The past week showed the lunacy of Mr. Trump and his actions as president in all their weirdest manifestations.  From calling American Jews “disloyal” to Israel (among the oldest tropes of anti-Semites) if they vote for a Democrat, to calling the Prime Minister of Denmark “nasty” (his go-to slam on women of power who don’t do what he wants), to acknowledging himself as the “second coming of God” and the “King of Israel,” to calling his hand picked Chairman of the Federal Reserve the “enemy,” it was hard to keep up with his unraveling.  It was yet more bafflegab.  As the old saying goes, “you can’t tell the players without a score card.”

None of these were the low points of the past week, however.  That honor goes to Mr. Trump’s participation in the Group of Seven (G-7) summit over the weekend in France.  The G-7 has through the decades provided a forum for the world’s seven strongest democracies to reach a common understanding of problems facing the world and to provide an opportunity to face those problems with a common purpose.  This year’s meeting could more properly be called the G-6 and some guy named Trump.

Symbolic of the entire American fiasco were the pictures of the meeting on climate change where all of the G-6 were there, along with the leaders of other nations invited to sit in on the session, and an empty chair where the President of the United States was to sit.  The proffered excuse for his no-show was that he was in meetings with German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.  A scheduling conflict.  Except that both Chancellor Merkel and Prime Minister Modi were at the climate change round table as is clearly shown in pictures of the group in session.

Does anything symbolize our current status in the world of international diplomacy more than a picture of an empty chair?

Whatever one’s view on climate change and its importance to the world (I think it an existential threat to our well being, physically, economically and militarily) to have the supposed leader of the free world missing in action shows that the United States is no longer the leader on the world stage.  Reports from other weekend meetings indicate that Mr. Trump was marginalized by the other world leaders because they were focused on important issues related to the future of their countries while Mr. Trump spent much of his time bragging about his trade war with China, pushing to have Russian President Vladimir Putin reinstated to the G-7 (making it the G-8 even though Russia still occupies Ukrainian territory in Crimea — the reason they were kicked out — and oh by the way, they are not one of the world’s leading economic powers or democracies) and touting his Doral, Florida golf course and resort as the finest in the world and the anticipated site of next year’s G-7 summit (thus making a profit on one of his business dealings by making foreign leaders and their entourages pay him for the privilege of fulfilling their duties.)

It was clear to observers that the G-6 were merely tolerating Mr. Trump and their goal was not to engage him on substantive issues, but rather to assuage him, flatter him and otherwise keep him occupied so that he did not blow up the primary focus of the work they were trying to do.  They knew he would not be part of any solutions so their only objective was to keep him from making the situation worse.  They mostly succeeded.

In other words, the world is moving on without the United States.  “America First” has become “America Alone.”

It is, once again, obvious that Mr. Trump has no understanding of history or why the world has been at relative peace for the last 75 years.  Decades of building trust through multi-lateral organizations such as NATO took down barriers that had resulted in two world wars in the span of twenty-five years.  Peace resulted in tremendous economic prosperity in many parts of the world and raised the relative standard of living for most people on earth.

The number one beneficiary of that peace and prosperity?  The United States.  By taking the lead around the world, we could shape these institutions to our benefit.  Other countries were willing to follow our lead because of our economic and military power, but also because they too benefited.  It is to our distinct advantage to be part and parcel of these institutions and to set the agenda through our strength and seasoned leadership.

To Mr. Trump this system exists only because previous administrations were chumps and allowed the rest of the world to take advantage of us.  Obviously, he has no understanding that the circumstances that led to World War II — the U.S. going it alone in isolation, imposing strict tariffs, the Great Depression — are being recreated by his vacillating and impulsive policy announcements via Twitter.

Real diplomacy aims to achieve a win-win for those involved.  Mr. Trump’s core belief is that there are never any win-win situations.  Only winners and losers.  One must win at all cost — even if that means lying, cheating, and subverting your friends.  Otherwise, you are a sucker.

An example would be Mr. Trump’s dealings with Denmark over Greenland.  The U.S. could argue that Greenland has important strategic interest to the U.S. for two reasons.  The geo-strategic reality that a militarily resurgent Russian Navy must pass through the U.K.-Iceland-Greenland Gap to get to the open Atlantic Ocean — simplifying the U.S. Navy goal to locate those forces, especially submarines.  The other is the growing importance of the Arctic to commercial interests, including shipping, for which both Russia and China have ambitious plans.  If Mr. Trump understood diplomacy and the multi-lateral nature of our alliances, he would know that Denmark — the Danish kingdom includes Greenland — is one of our greatest allies including sending troops to support us in Afghanistan and Iraq and suffering 43 of their brave soldiers killed in action.  Instead of cancelling a state visit — rarely offered by the kingdom — and calling the Prime Minister “nasty” he should have made the visit, talked with the Danish government and worked to see how to meet both nation’s interests while preserving the goals of the U.S.  Instead he got mad when they would not sell the island at his demand, as if we would sell Puerto Rico to the French because they want to protect their interests in the Caribbean.

So the world simply moves on without the U.S. and works together without our input.  The resulting impact on our foreign policy and national interests is that we lose our seat at the table.  All Mr. Trump can do is throw a temper tantrum and disrupt.  Indeed, he considers himself a disrupter, a position that has some great appeal to his supporters.

In reality, he is not a disrupter, he is a destroyer.  He breaks things and destroys in a fit of pique or just to show that he can.  A real leader may shake up the status quo, but has a plan and a strategy to implement a new, and one hopes, better idea.  Not so with this president.  He breaks things, blames others for it, and expects the world to pick up after his mess.  He has no grand plan.

Our friends and allies have learned the game. So have our adversaries. Our friends do not want to play anymore.  Our adversaries see a chance to take advantage of the situation.  Our friends simply placate him to his face so that he stays out of the way and then they go and do what they want without our input.  Our adversaries flatter him and then do whatever they want without fear of consequences.

It may be a stretch to say that we are becoming irrelevant, but our influence is quickly waning.

This may be our weakest international position since before World War II.