Disgusting!
Posted: August 17, 2025 Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: Donald Trump, Historical Perspective, NATO, putin, Russia, Sanctions, Ukraine, US-Russia Summit, Vladimir Putin, War, War Crimes Leave a commentNauseating! Embarrassing! Revolting! Stomach-churning! Mind-boggling!
These are but a few of the phrases I have seen over the last few days following the spectacle that took place at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson near Anchorage, Alaska on Friday. The best thing that can be said about it is that the Secretary of Defense did not rename the facility after a Confederate general while he was there. Right from the beginning, the optics were horrible as Russian President Vladimir Putin looked like he was in charge while the President of the United States looked like he was a lost puppy that finally found his master. Trump simply could not keep his hands off Putin.
Think about this. Trump gave full honors to an indicted war criminal that is responsible for kidnapping thousands of children from Ukraine and indiscriminately bombing civilians including a maternity ward, schools, numerous hospitals and countless other buildings that have no military value whatsoever. Barbaric atrocities such as those against the poor people of Bucha, Ukraine should not be forgotten. Putin has a warrant out for his arrest by the International Criminal Court (ICC) and Trump gives him a hero’s welcome. Then again, Trump is a convicted felon 34 times over, an adjudicated sex offender, indicted for mishandling (stealing) classified documents, indicted for trying to overturn the 2020 election and impeached twice. The law and order president that pardoned nearly 2,000 convicts surrounding the assault and ransacking of the capital, put a convicted child sex trafficker in a minimum security prison, and pardoned convicted drug traffickers probably felt right at home with his counterpart in crime.
I am willing to opine that Trump went into the summit ill-prepared and thought that he could just schmooze his way to an agreement over Ukraine. Despite the fact that Putin has been unwavering in his demands for ending the war that Russia started. Somehow, people, including Trump, blame Ukraine for the war. It might help to start with the facts if one wants to solve a problem. But then, Trump has always been fact challenged. Putin had him for lunch — probably the reason Putin left early before the ceremonial lunch Trump had planned — as he had already filled up on embarrassing Trump.
Putin schooled Trump on how power really works in the world. Not only did he control the narrative, he spoke first in briefing the results of the talks (in diplomatic circles the host country speaks first) and laid out his demands. Putin did not agree to a ceasefire, and like the nickname TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out), Trump dropped his demands for a ceasefire before negotiations continue (he says that they usually do not work, anyway) and dropped imposing further sanctions on Russian oil exports to other countries. Could it be because Putin agreed with Trump that the 2020 election was rigged — because of mail-in voting according to the war criminal — and that the war with Ukraine would not have started if Trump were president in 2022? With Trump, flattery will get you whatever you want, especially if you are a ruthless dictator.
Note that no European nations or organizations were present, despite the fact that European security rests heavily on the outcome of the largest land war in Europe since World War II, and not to mention that Ukraine — the country that was invaded — had no representation. On the up side, many observers were worried that Trump would do his best Neville Chamberlain impersonation and declare “peace in our time” while handing over the Ukrainians to Russian subjugation. Thankfully, that did not happen. Yet. During the press brief (no questions from the press were allowed) Putin looked and acted elated and full of vigor. Trump looked defeated and tired.
Putin lectured the world from that podium on U.S. territory. His position has not changed. As he said, until the “root causes” of the war are resolved, there will be no peace. What are his root causes? His goal is to effectively, if not actually, return Ukraine to its role in the Soviet Union prior to the fall of the Berlin wall. Total domination. Putin claims that his goal is to “demilitarize and denazify” Ukraine. That means a “neutral” Ukraine with no NATO guarantees for Ukraine’s security, no strong Ukrainian military, and that Ukraine recognize that Crimea belongs to Russia and cede the Donetsk region of Ukraine to Russia. (The Donetsk was Ukraine’s most populous region with much of its industrial capacity before the war.)
So, essentially, here is what happened. Putin came to Alaska (which some in Russia consider still to be a part of their country), got a tremendous photo op with the leader (?) of the free world including a one-on-one ride in the presidential limousine thereby gaining prestige and increased power in his own country and the rest of the world; lectured Trump on the history of Russia and its relationship with Ukraine, including that the Ukrainians are really Russians with a different accent; laid out his non-negotiable demands to end the war that he started; refused to talk to the press; snubbed Trump’s ceremonial luncheon; cut the meeting time in half; got back on his plane and left. Meanwhile Trump in his remarks mumbled something about how the meeting was “very useful” and adopted Putin’s talking point that a cease-fire was not needed and that only a complete peace agreement was satisfactory. All taking place while more innocent Ukrainian civilians, children, women, and men continue to have drones and missiles rain down on them and people continue to die. Trump gives the word “deal” the worst possible meaning. He has no idea what a real deal might be. The only deals he knows are how to swindle people on real estate sales.
I have no problem with the U.S. and Russia meeting to try and solve the issues surrounding the war. I do have a problem with a fawning President of the United States adopting the talking points of a war criminal and not including Ukraine in the discussions. Rightly, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will not accept any agreement of which they are not a part. Their slogan could be “nothing about us without us.” President Zelenskyy is scheduled to meet with Trump tomorrow in Washington D.C. Their last meeting did not go well as Trump and his henchmen bullied Mr. Zelenskyy telling him he had “no cards” to play in the negotiations. Trump proved on Friday that he is the one being taken for his lunch money at the card table.
Russia and Putin only understand power. Anyone with even a passing knowledge of history knows that the only way to get Putin’s attention is through strength, not schmoozing. If Trump is serious about ending the war in Ukraine he should immediately put sanctions on Russian oil to third parties (their illegal oil exports are about the only thing keeping Russia economically afloat), increase the number and lethality of U.S. and NATO weapons to Ukraine, remove any restrictions on their use, including the current limited range into Russia proper and work to completely isolate Putin and Russia on the international stage.
Instead, we got one of history’s most pathetic showings by a U.S. president in international negotiations that anyone can remember. It was a bad day for America.
Appeasement Never Succeeds
Posted: April 25, 2025 Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: America First, Appeasement, Crimea, Donald Trump, NATO, Russia, Ukraine, Vladimir Putin, Vlodymyr Zelenskyy, War Leave a comment“Stopping the war, stopping from taking the whole country, pretty big concession.”
Trump on 24 April 2025 when asked in the Oval Office as to what concessions Russia is offering to bring about the negotiated end of its war on Ukraine.
It has been clear for some time that the U.S. position on the war in Ukraine is the same as Russia’s. We have now switched sides in negotiations to end the conflict. Trump and his advisors put the blame on Ukraine and President Vlodymyr Zelenskyy for starting the war and for its continuation. Facts be damned, it is the way that Trump says it is and he is hopping mad that the Ukrainians will not give in to his demands.
Russia invaded Crimea, a part of Ukraine, in early 2014 following in the wake of the ouster of then Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych — a Russian proxy. Special forces personnel in unmarked uniforms — the “little green men” as they were dubbed at the time — seized key positions throughout the region and Russia formally annexed Crimea on 18 March 2014. Although the invasion was condemned throughout much of the world, Russia continues to claim that Crimea is rightfully theirs. This was the first step in Vladimir Putin’s plan to regain Ukraine in his quest to restore the Russian Empire.
Step two was the rise of pro-Russian paramilitary groups in the Ukrainian regions of Luhansk and Donbas in the spring of 2014. The Ukrainian military sought to retake the area and a long bloody stand-off ensued. Russia continued to arm, train and support the separatists in the conflict, with the intent of eventually retaking all of Ukraine.
Step three was the full-scale invasion of Ukraine by Russian special forces and regular army forces on 24 February 2022. Mr. Putin declared that it was necessary to conduct a “special military operation” to protect the people in eastern Ukraine and to remove the “neo-Nazis” in charge of the Ukrainian government. Those officials, according to Mr. Putin, were conniving with NATO to invade Russia and were developing nuclear weapons to use against Russia. The Russians had a duty to attack and bring about the “demilitarization and denazification” of Ukraine. The surprise attack failed and a long and bloody conflict continues.
As a candidate for president, Trump declared that he could end the war in Ukraine in “24 hours” — maybe even before he took office. He now claims that his repeated statements were a “joke.” A joke that covered the deaths of tens of thousands.
No formal direct talks have taken place involving Russia, Ukraine, Europe and the U.S. sitting down together for serious negotiations. Instead, the U.S. is trying to force Ukraine to accept a “deal” put together by Trump and his administration — some of whom were staunch advocates on behalf of Ukraine and its independence. Now they seem to have gone all in on Trump’s support of Russia against Ukraine. (I’m looking at you, Mr. Secretary of State.)
Here is the “deal” that Trump is trying to force on Ukraine.
- Both the U.S. and Ukraine recognize that Crimea is formally part of Russia.
- Ukraine cede its territory now occupied by Russian forces in eastern Ukraine to Russia.
- Ukraine promises to never join NATO.
- No European or NATO forces can enter Ukraine to ensure its security.
- U.S. military aid to Ukraine will be suspended.
- The U.S. will be given access to rare earth minerals in Ukraine to “repay” the aid that they have received in their fight against Russia.
- The U.S. lifts most sanctions against Russia imposed for its repeated aggression against Ukraine.
- The U.S. and Russia will resume formal diplomatic and trade relations which were disrupted following the Russian invasions.
There may be more to which we are not privy. Trump changes his demands on a whim. The deal gives Mr. Putin everything he wants without even having to negotiate. Russia and Ukraine have had past security agreements that the Russians violate at their discretion. The Ukrainian experience is that any security agreement with Russia is worthless.
Not surprisingly, President Zelenskyy has refused to accept these terms. He has agreed to Trump’s proposal of a 30 day cease fire, but the Russians continue to put up road blocks to its implementation until they get what they want. So far, Trump has put little pressure on Mr. Putin (unless you count the occasional social media posts asking “Vladimir” to stop bombing civilians in Ukraine.) One might ask as to why the Russians would negotiate anything if Trump has already given them all that they want (for now) without having to do anything other than not take over the whole country?
Here is the topper. If a peace deal is not accepted “soon” the U.S. will “walk away” from the whole thing, according to Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Vice President J.D. Vance. No one is sure exactly what that means. If it means the end of military and intelligence support to Ukraine — which Trump already temporarily suspended once — then we would be walking away from helping a democracy in Europe under attack by a dictator and allowing the continued destruction of Ukraine and the loss of countless civilian lives.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is the largest conflict in Europe since World War II. NATO was meant to prevent one nation from forcefully invading and taking over another sovereign nation. Originally aimed at the Soviet Union, now Russia, it also has diplomatic and military impact throughout the world. Walking away from our commitments makes us less safe and is a direct threat to our own national security.
Let’s put it plainly. Trump loves Putin. Trump sides with Putin. Trump will throw Ukraine to the wolves if he thinks it makes him look good to Putin. Putin knows exactly how to play Trump to get whatever he wants. Trump handing Ukraine to Putin will undermine the world order that has basically kept the peace for eighty years. We will be in a destabilized world where everything is on the table.
If Trump follows through on his plan to appease Mr. Putin and hand over Ukraine it is likely to have long term consequences that will rate a place in history alongside British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain’s “peace in our time” appeasement of Adolf Hitler that led to World War II. In his mind, Trump will be awarded the Nobel Prize for bringing peace to Ukraine. (Not a joke. He talks about it. A lot. Probably because President Barack Obama was awarded a Nobel Prize. It drives him crazy.) In fact, he will be setting the stage for continued conflict.
This is not a prediction. It is looking at history and the current geo-political alignment of nations. If Ukraine accedes to Trump’s/Putin’s demands, and with the rest of NATO uncertain how to proceed, Putin will reconstitute his forces and then seize the rest of Ukraine. (Ukraine will resist, but without significant help they cannot defeat Russia over the long haul.) Putin will then turn to the Baltic States to “protect Russians” living in those countries and to “relieve” the pressure on the Kaliningrad Oblast — a part of sovereign Russia surrounded by the Baltic Sea, Lithuania and Poland. The Baltic States and Poland are members of NATO. Should they be attacked, then Article V of the NATO Treaty comes into play — an attack on one member is an attack on all. With an “America First” policy, it is unclear if the current U.S. administration would follow through on our commitment to NATO. Regardless, just like in the 1930’s, appeasement leads to large scale war.
Is this a worst case scenario? Of course. But not so far fetched. Mr. Putin has opined for decades that the worst event in the 20th century was the dissolution of the Soviet Union. He has vowed in many different forums and formats that his goal is to restore the power and grandeur of the Russian Empire. Ukraine is just the first piece of the puzzle. Any former Soviet Republic should be looking over their shoulder at the Russian bear that is preparing and planning to bring Putin’s dream to fruition.
I have no idea where Trump’s infatuation with Mr. Putin begins. We can speculate to our heart’s content but after all of this time, we all know that regardless of the cause, it exists. We can also see where it is headed if Trump continues to blame Mr. Zelenskyy for the Russian invasion and if he continues to force him to bend to Mr. Putin’s will. From where I sit, Mr. Zelenskyy and the entire Ukrainian people are not wimps. They will not go willingly into any agreement that they know will lead to their destruction as a nation. The European Union and NATO are gearing up to step in to help Ukraine if the U.S. abandons them. It is unclear where that leads or whether Ukraine can prevail without U.S. guarantees. Right now, Mr. Putin thinks he can wait out the U.S. and that he will eventually prevail against Ukraine — at great economic and military cost — but he knows he will prevail. It will be a lot easier with U.S. help.
The Kremlin Rules!
Posted: March 1, 2025 Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: Diplomacy, Donald Trump, International Relations, Louis XIV, MAGA, Project 2025, putin, Russia, Trump, Ukraine, Ukrainne, United States Constitution, Vladimir Putin Leave a commentYesterday, 28 February 2025, was a day where you, me, historians, diplomats, and anyone else that cares about the role of the United States in international diplomacy will talk about as “before 28 February and after 28 February.” We now know that the convicted felon in the White House who tried to stage a coup to keep himself in power is totally, 100 percent behind Russia’s Vladimir Putin and against our long standing allies around the world. Trump’s and Vance’s ignorant display in the Oval Office yesterday reflected the essence of this administration — embarrassing, repugnant, vengeful, hypocritical, and extremely dangerous.
Trump invited President Zelenskyy of Ukraine to the White House yesterday. Ostensibly, the reason for the meeting was to discuss the possibility of Ukraine giving the U.S. access to the rare earth minerals believed to be in Ukrainian territory. (No one is exactly sure what or where those valuable minerals actually are as there are almost no mines actively recovering them and the existence of such minerals is based on a decades old map done by surveyors from the Soviet Union.) Instead, President Zelenskyy walked into an apparent ambush by Trump and his MAGA henchman J.D. Vance where they berated and harassed Mr. Zelenskyy while spreading lies and disinformation about the actual situation in Ukraine. (If you have not yet seen it, watch it here. The body language is as important as what is actually said. Or read about it here.) Note that J.D. Vance started the harangue. J.D. is usually not allowed to attend such meetings between Trump and foreign dignitaries (Trump doesn’t want to share the spotlight), which further indicates that he was part of some plan along with Trump to stick it to the Ukrainian. To his credit, Mr. Zelenskyy did not take the bait, stayed calm, and did not yell back at Trump. He did, however, resolutely stick to his position and to try and explain the dire situation that he and his nation are in because of Russian aggression. What really seemed to enrage Trump was when Mr. Zelenskyy tried to explain that no deal with Russia was worth anything without concrete security guarantees. Further, he warned Trump that if he made an unsecured deal with Putin, eventually the U.S. would be in danger. Trump tripped off the line and starting ranting about Hunter Biden, the Russia “hoax” that Putin suffered through, and countless other grievances that had nothing to do with the alleged negotiations at hand. In the end, Trump sounded exactly like a mafia Don threatening retribution on a business that refused to give him a cut. The point was to bully Mr. Zelenskyy in a dual attack in order to get him to concede to a deal to stop the war that would be exclusively favorable to Russia. Mr. Zelenskyy refused. The meeting ended with Trump ordering the press out of the office and saying, “This is going to be great television.”
What does this attack on Mr. Zelenskyy mean? Why would Trump take Russia’s side in the dispute since they are the clear aggressor and the war could end in one day by withdrawing the Russian and North Korean troops? Let’s take a look.
There is a difference between what things are and what things mean. This was a crude and very undiplomatic shouting match aimed at bullying one of our allies in front of the cameras. What it means is that the U.S. is no longer a reliable partner to our NATO allies and our friends around the world. It means that Trump supports the dictator Putin over the leader of a democracy suffering at the hands of an unprovoked aggressor. It means that Trump and Putin will probably work out some kind of “peace” deal without Ukraine having a say. It means that Russia will be encouraged to continue its quest to reestablish the Russian empire. It means that the U.S. is meaningfully less secure.
This is the biggest diplomatic change since the arrival of the United States on the world stage at the start of the Twentieth Century. We are now aligned with Russia who is aligned with China, Iran and North Korea. Countless leaders throughout the free world from Belgium to New Zealand lined up in support of Mr. Zelenskyy and his stance to defend Ukraine.
Where was Secretary of State Marco Rubio, known as an avid anti-Russian hawk? Slumped in a chair next to Vance looking very much like he wished he could disappear. Where was National Security Adviser Mike Waltz who as a Congressman was another anti-Russia, pro-Ukraine supporter? Missing in action. After the dust settled many, many of the MAGA crowd (there are no longer members of the Republican Party in Congress) chose to blame the melt down on Mr. Zelenskyy. They focused on the fact that he did not a wear a suit and tie (he goes everywhere in modified military gear to remind everyone his country is at war) and therefore he was disrespectful and argumentative. (Musk wore a ball cap and t-shirt to a Cabinet meeting in the White House earlier this week, but apparently he can do whatever he wants to do.)
Mr. Rubio and Mr. Waltz should resign. It is clear that they have no influence over Trump or American policy. But of course, they will not. They have been totally coopted. American foreign policy is no longer based on American values and strength. It is now based on the ignorant whims of one man who thinks he is a world player. Instead, he is getting played.
Why is Trump trying to destroy our role in the world by aligning with Putin? I have given this a lot of thought. Trump’s apologists come up with a myriad of reasons as to why he disparages our closest allies and cheers our enemies. He is a businessman. He knows the art of the deal. He is trying to get the EU to step up. It is part of “America First.” Blah, blah blah.
Of course, I am not on the inside so I do not know what takes place behind closed doors but here is what I think. There are only two conceivable scenarios at this point as to why Trump is turning our country over to Putin. The first is that he is actually an agent for Putin. He is trying to destroy our country from within (via Musk and his DOGE bros running amok) and without (throwing our allies under the bus). The Russians cannot believe their great fortune in his returning to the presidency. They are getting a great return on their investment. Can I prove this? Of course not. But there have been rumors since the 1980s that Trump was compromised and groomed to at least be sympathetic to Russia. Given his intellectual and psychological vulnerabilities, and his weakness for flattery, this is not too far fetched. Several uncorroborated reports have had at least four separate former KGB agents at different times reveal that there was a KGB operation, run by the then Czechoslovakian intelligence service, to groom him as a Russian supporter. It is known that many of his real estate deals were with Russian oligarchs buying properties at inflated prices. His first campaign manager Paul Manafort had known ties to Russian oligarchs and intelligence agents. All that said, this to me is the least likely of the options.
It is more likely that he has some simplistic medieval grand view where rich and powerful kings rule the world and their subjects show absolute fealty to him and carry out his every whim. He needs only confer with his fellow “kings” in Russia and China to decide how they will divide the world. Thus we do not need a federal civil service, the king and his lords will run the country. He does not need allies because he consorts with his fellow kings. Rich and powerful men know what is best. What is good for the king is good for the state. “L’etat, c’est moi” — “I am the state” — as King Louis XIV of France is said to have told the French parliament in 1655. In other words, he is an absolute monarch with complete power and not subject to Constitutional limitations. While some of you may think that I am stretching the analogy, and I doubt that Trump knows who Louis XIV was and wouldn’t care anyway, he is approaching his presidency as if he is the absolute ruler. As the absolute ruler he only needs to confer with other absolute rulers.
Whether or not he succeeds with this approach to governing, we will find out. What I am arguing is that this is his mind set and thus he acts in the ways that he does. As I have written in this space countless times, autocrats always tell you what they are going to do. They don’t always succeed, but they are going to try. Trump is telling us exactly what he wants to do and unlike in his first term, he has people around him that are willing to do it.
This is dangerous for many reasons, of course. In this particular case, and what President Zelenskyy was trying to tell Trump, is that he can not trust Putin. Once America repudiates our allies and removes itself from participation with our allies in NATO and elsewhere, Putin and Xi Jinping of China will work together to bring us to our knees. This is one of the things that infuriated Trump during the meeting. Mr. Zelenskyy told Trump that the U.S now “has a nice ocean” to protect us against Russia so we don’t “feel” Russian pressure or threats, but that “you will feel it in the future.” Trump exploded and said “don’t tell us what we’re going to feel.” Completely missing the point, but then he is not that sharp and he is intellectually uncurious. Flattery gets you everything with Trump. He is an easy mark for Putin and Xi who have been in this game for a long time.
The idea of the world being divided into “kingdoms” fits nicely with the Project 2025 playbook being implemented throughout the government as I write. Trump’s world view, Musk’s world view and that of the Project 2025 folks is that rich, powerful men became that way — became “kings” of their domains — because they are smarter and more ruthless and more capable than the rest of us. Therefore it is only logical that they should be in charge. This view is manifesting itself in the foreign policy arena with Ukraine as the example. Ukraine is relatively weak, especially compared to Russia, therefore they should submit and give Russia whatever they want in order to bring “peace” and “save lives.” Of course the Butcher of Bucha will only torture, rape and murder the good citizens of Ukraine should Putin take over.
Remember the day that it all changed. Even if Trump’s plans are thwarted, it will take a generation of hard work before our allies will ever trust us again.
The Beacon Of Democracy Is Dimming
Posted: February 25, 2025 Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: Autocrats, Congress, DOGE, Donald Trump, Elon Musk, NATO, Russia, U.S. Military, Ukraine, United States Constitution, Vladimir Putin, War Leave a commentThe past few days have been tumultuous for those of us that pay attention to the systematic demolishing of the democratic norms we took for granted just a few weeks ago. In the past few days an unelected South African “adviser” to the president accelerated the use of a wrecking ball to attack our proud and dedicated civil servants, senior military officers were fired because of the color of their skin or their gender, the United States of America joined North Korea, Russia, Belarus, and others to vote in the United Nations against a resolution condemning the Russian invasion of Ukraine and instead continued to claim Ukraine caused the war, and the President of these United States called the President of France a liar to his face during an Oval Office press gathering when President Macron tried to set the record straight concerning aid to Ukraine. That’s a lot and it is only the tip of the iceberg.
As Elon Musk and his DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency) henchmen continue to decimate the federal government, our fellow citizens are beginning to understand what is going on and are pushing back against their elected representatives in town hall meetings across the country. Officials in both “blue” districts and “red” ones are feeling the heat. So far, the opposition to the drastic cuts has had little impact. Trump, MAGA acolytes and Musk will continue to decimate the federal government. They fundamentally do not care what happens to the people serving in the jobs, the harm caused by closing down federal funding or any other second or third order impacts caused by their reckless behavior. Their goal is to establish an autocracy run by techno-bros and other rich white men. End of discussion. This is Project 2025 in all of its dimensions.
The budding autocrats are making great progress. Already the Department of Justice (DOJ) and Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) are under the control of MAGA and are ready to wreak havoc on those that oppose Trump. The contagion is now spreading to the Department of Defense (DOD). The Secretary of Defense (SECDEF) Pete Hegseth, under orders from Trump although I am sure SECDEF would have done it anyway, fired the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General C.Q. Brown (a black man), Chief of Naval Operations Admiral Lisa Franchetti (a woman), the Vice Chief of Staff of the Air Force General James Slife (a white man that was too “woke”), Lt. General Jennifer Short (a woman) the Senior Military Aide to SECDEF, and Judge Advocate Generals (JAGs) of the Army, Air Force and Navy. On his second day in office, Trump had the Commandant of the Coast Guard fired, Admiral Linda Fagan (a woman). The JAGs were fired, according to SECDEF, because they were “roadblocks” to doing what he wanted. In other words, they had too much integrity to allow SECDEF or the Commander-in-Chief to do whatever they wanted to do when it includes illegal or unethical activity. Danger, danger! Pete Hegseth, then a Fox News host, was instrumental in getting Trump, during his first term, to pardon war criminals. In November of 2019, Trump pardoned two Army officers for the murder of civilians in Afghanistan and promoted a Navy SEAL after a court martial stripped him of his rank for similar charges.
The flag and general officers fired last Friday were considered DEI (diversity, equity, inclusion) hires. Even though General Brown was appointed as Chief of Staff of the Air Force during Trump’s first administration. (President Biden promoted him to be CJCS.) This, of course, disregards their decades of service and their proven track record in command at all levels of the military. They proved themselves in tough, demanding jobs. It is an insult to believe that they only attained their positions because of their “woke” ideologies or because a political party wanted to promote people only because of some vague idea about affirmative action. What they are really saying is that only white men are qualified to lead our country and that only white men can be warriors. (Hegseth is qualified? Meritocracy my …) (For an excellent breakdown of the mind set of the current administration and advocates of Project 2025, I recommend reading the article in The Atlantic magazine by Adam Serwer The Great Resegregation found here.)
Senior officers serve at the discretion of the president. However, their terms of office are meant to straddle different administrations in order to provide stability and experience to protect our national security. Even more distressing, the president is nominating retired Lt. General Dan Cane, USAF for the position of Chairman. According to U.S. law (title 10 Part I, chapter 5) the Chairman must have previously served as the Vice Chairman, Chief of a military branch, or the commander of a unified or specified command — all are four star (General or Admiral) positions. Lt. General Cane has never been in any of those positions and never achieved the rank of a four star. Title 10 does provide for a deviation from these requirements if it is “in the national interest.” I would argue that there is no compelling reason today to deviate from the law unless the president and SECDEF want someone that is willing to do whatever they want them to do, including illegal or unethical behavior. I do not know Lt. General Cane so I will not impugn his character, but let us just note that something fishy is going on here. Just as those flag and general officers that were fired were the product of the military system that produces non-political officers that have an oath only to the Constitution I want to believe that officers promoted to fill the vacated positions have an allegiance only to their duty under the Constitution and not fealty to one man. Time will tell.
The loss of American leadership was on full display yesterday in the United Nations when the U.S. supported Russian ideals rather than traditional American support for democracy. On the third anniversary of the full scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, the U.S. joined Russia in the U.N. General Assembly to vote against a resolution condemning Russia’s aggression and calling for an end to the war with a full withdrawal of Russian troops. It was an extraordinary turn of events as much of the world voted in favor of the European based resolution. In other words, we turned against our own allies to support Russia. The President of the United States continues to say that the war is Ukraine’s fault and that its leader President Zelenskyy is a dictator. It is not only embarrassing, it is frightening. It signals that our president is a pawn in Russian President Vladimir Putin’s hand. Russia’s invasion is the largest ground war in Europe since World War II. The purpose of the U.N. and its charter is to protect the territorial integrity of sovereign nations. Apparently, we no longer support democracies around the world and find it totally acceptable for large countries to invade smaller ones. Everyone wants the killing to stop. The losses on both sides are catastrophic. But the current administration fails to understand that this war could stop tomorrow if Russia withdrew its invading force. Simple. Instead, Trump wants to stand proudly with a designated war criminal who favors murder, rape, and indiscriminate destruction of civilian targets.
Continuing to show his willful ignorance and lack of shame, Trump added insult to injury by telling lie after lie about the war and the circumstances around it while in a meeting in the Oval Office with French President Macron. When President Macron corrected him in front of the press corps, Trump’s body language was very telling, as well as what he actually said about President Macron’s statement. The discussion concerned Trump’s desire to get rare minerals from Ukraine to “pay back” the aid provided. (Roughly 75% of the aid we give to Ukraine actually stays in the U.S. as the money is used to buy U.S. ammunition, weapons and other military equipment. Trump also greatly exaggerates the amount of that aid.) He went on to claim that the Europeans have already been reimbursed. President Macron interrupted him to fact check him that, in fact, the Europeans have not been reimbursed. At the end, Trump told the press that they can believe those “lies” from President Macron if they want to. A great statesman.
In all, everyday we see how unqualified Trump and key members of his administration are in trying to keep our country economically strong and our country secure. Through design and malfeasance our great democracy is slowly crumbling. Trump has consolidated the centers of power in our government as he purges the Pentagon. The pillars of an autocratic government are nearly in place. Congress is missing in action. So far, the courts are holding firm as our last great hope. My view is that Trump thinks that he will eventually prevail in the Supreme Court as they will side with his idea of the unitary executive and Trump will use it to quash any remaining resistance. I hope I am wrong, but to date, they are succeeding. Given that he is a convicted felon that already tried to overthrow the country, there is no reason to think that he does not intend to become an autocrat.
Shameful? Disgraceful? Or Both?
Posted: February 20, 2025 Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: AfD, Donald Trump, Elon Musk, J.D. Vance, Munich Security Conference, NATO, Russia, Ukraine, Vladimir Putin, War 1 CommentIn case you missed it, over roughly the last seven days the convicted felon and 47th president of the United States reversed 80 years of U.S. foreign policy that preserved our security and prosperity at home and allowed the world to enjoy the benefits of a largely peaceful framework for international relations. You may have been too busy following the antics of King Trump (so self designated yesterday) and President Musk as they decimate the federal civil service across the country from the Gulf of Mexico to Denali, Alaska. (Contrary to popular belief, only about 13% of the federal work force is in the Washington DC metro area, 83% is spread around the country and 2% is overseas).
In his incessant effort to please Russian President Vladimir Putin, Trump and his kakistocracy betrayed Ukraine, salvaged Russia from the isolation it deserves, signaled our withdrawal from NATO and encouraged China, Russia and Iran to expand their influence and control. That’s a lot — let’s break it down.
As we approach the third anniversary of the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, a quick reminder as to the chain of events is in order. When the Soviet Union collapsed, about a third of the Soviet’s nuclear weapons were in Ukraine which emerged as an independent state. Under the 1991 security guarantees of Russia, the U.S. and the United Kingdom, Ukraine’s borders were recognized and guaranteed in exchange for relinquishing those nuclear weapons. After Putin emerged as the leader of the “new” Russia, he worked continuously to promote pro-Russian leadership in Ukraine. As a gateway to the rest of Europe, Ukraine was caught between pro-Russian and pro-western European influences. In 2014, Ukrainians revolted and drove out the pro-Russian leader Victor Yanukovych. That prompted Putin to invade Crimea, a part of Ukraine, and annex it. Putin also encouraged and supplied pro-Russian forces in eastern Ukraine to take and hold territory. A simmering war continued there until early 2022 when the full scale Russian invasion began. Note that the quasi-war in Ukraine was underway during Trump’s first term. Also remember that Vololdymyr Zelensky defeated a pro-Russian politician for president in April of 2020. That July, Trump called President Zelensky to push for an investigation into Hunter Biden and his father Joe Biden who Trump correctly expected to be his opponent for president. President Zelensky refused, Trump withheld money appropriated for Ukraine, and the situation led to Trump’s first impeachment.
Strike one against Ukraine. Trump does hold grudges.
During his 2020 campaign, Trump declared that he would end the war in Ukraine on “day one.” Sure. Now he sees it as his mission. However, he is not trying to solve it on terms favorable to Ukraine, but rather to please his old buddy Vladimir Putin. Reportedly, Trump and Putin talked for about 90 minutes last week, the first official diplomatic contact between the U.S. and Russia since the invasion three years ago and afterwards, everything changed.
Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth gave a speech in Europe during an international conference on Ukraine where he clearly stated that it was “unrealistic” for Ukraine to expect to return to its pre-2014 borders, and that it “is not realistic” for Ukraine to join NATO. So much for the art of the deal when before the negotiating even starts, one side concedes to the other everything that they want. Additionally Hegseth (is he really the Secretary of Defense?) told our European allies that the U.S. would no longer safeguard the security of Europe as the U.S. “will no longer tolerate an imbalanced relationship” with our European allies. Indeed, if the Europeans deployed troops into Ukraine to provide for guarantees to protect Ukrainian sovereignty under a future deal, the U.S. would not consider it a NATO mission and therefore there would be no Article Five guarantees from the U.S. Article Five is the key to NATO’s effectiveness. It states that an attack on one member is considered an attack on all and that all members would respond militarily. Without that iron clad commitment from all members of NATO, the alliance is weakened, perhaps fatally weakened. Article Five has been invoked only once — by the U.S. following the attacks on September 11.
Vice President J.D. Vance, the embodiment of the Project 2025 playbook, then gave a speech during the annual Munich Security Conference — meeting to discuss Ukraine and NATO defense spending — that blasted and scolded our closest allies for allowing migration from the Middle East and Africa into Europe and claiming that they violated their democratic values by inhibiting free speech. What he was really attacking was the European’s efforts to counter misinformation, disinformation and outright lies perpetrated by one Elon Musk (yes that same guy) in an attempt to sway voters in several European elections to vote for the hard right parties in those countries. His speech came straight out of the Project 2025 playbook. To further insult our allies, Vance then met with the leader of the far right neo-Nazi German party Alternative fur Deutschland (AfD) rather than with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, A clear signal from the Trump administration as to their future vision and undisguised disdain for our allies.
While all of that was happening, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent met President Zelensky in Kyiv whose purpose, much to the Ukrainians surprise, was to demand that President Zelensky sign a document that gives fifty percent (about 500 million dollars) of Ukraine’s rare earth minerals to the U.S. When President Zelensky hesitated, Bessent gave him one hour to change his mind and sign or there would be repercussions. President Zelensky did not sign. The current status of this demand is unknown.
Strike two against Ukraine. Another grudge.
The U.S. then held bilateral meetings with Russia in Saudi Arabia (hmmm) about the war in Ukraine. This was a huge diplomatic achievement for Russia as the meeting was a sign that Russia “was back” – on an equal footing with the U.S. and once again a player on the international stage after years of isolation. Another victory for Russia in these negotiations. So far, Russia has given up nothing in return.
Oh yeah. Ukraine was not invited to the discussions about its future and neither were our European allies even though they obviously have a huge stake in the outcome.
Afterwards, President Zelensky opined that Trump was living in a “Russian disinformation bubble” and added that Ukraine was not for sale.
Strike three against Ukraine. Trump went ballistic.
In a series of public statements, Trump did what he does best. He lied and lied and lied. (Check his lies and the facts here.) Worst of all, he said that Ukraine started the war. Then he called President Zelensky a “moderately successful comedian” (ouch) who is now a “dictator.” Things went down hill from there. Trump is demanding that Ukraine take steps that fall completely within the Russian game plan to take over in Ukraine.
There are several possible scenarios playing out, none of them good for Ukraine or Europe or for our own national security and economic success. Trump is incapable of strategic thinking and only knows transactional relationships. Therefore one possibility is that, once again, Trump’s fragile ego and need to be respected, at any cost, is wounded. President Zelensky and European leaders have had, in his mind, a free ride for too long and now that he’s the new sheriff in town he wants instant respect and a lot of dollars coming to us (him). He simply cannot grasp the big picture that we benefit more from these alliances and our support of other democracies than it costs us. (See the destruction of the U.S. Agency for International Development that provided valuable support to our own national interests at very low cost. Not to mention the U.S. farmers and suppliers that sell the goods and services.)
A second possibility is that he actually believes that he alone can solve the war in Ukraine. He has always been enamored of Putin and here is Trump’s chance to show that he can deal with him. Of course, we all know that Putin is a master of manipulation. Trump doesn’t even know that he is being taken for a ride. If Putin gets what he wants in Ukraine, I fear for the Baltic states and Poland as they will be next on Putin’s list. And in the not so distant future. Remember that in a 2005 speech to the Russian people, Putin said that the collapse of the Soviet Union “was the greatest geo-political catastrophe of the [20th] century.” He is on a mission from God (literally if you read about him) to restore the Russian empire.
A third possibility is that Trump (well, those around him) have a geo-political vision that is in a way a reversion to the cold war. The “great powers” — U.S., Russia, China — divide up the world into spheres of influence. This would fit into his phantasmagoric ideas of annexing Canada, Greenland and Panama. It would also fit the vision of the Project 2025 folks and Musk and others that the world should be run by rich white men who create Christian white nationalist nations around the globe.
Whatever the motivation, the world is on notice that the United States is no longer the leader of the free world, or any world except the United States. Good luck everyone else. If Trump succeeds in giving Ukraine to Russia, it will mean hundreds of thousands of refugees pouring into western Europe (destabilizing them internally), cost thousands of lives, lead to arbitrary executions, torture and rape and eliminate a democracy and friend. It also gives Russia a green light for further territorial gains and lets China know that we will not protect Taiwan or any other Asian country.
It will be shameful and disgraceful. Not only does it undermine our long held and deeply cherished view of our role in the world and our ability to promote democracy but such actions will endanger our own security and prosperity. We will not be safe. So far, Trump has received nearly zero pushback from formerly respected leaders of the former Republican party. The world that we have cherished for eight decades will be gone and in its place will be a new world that would be impossible to imagine just a few months ago.
Make America Hate Again
Posted: September 17, 2024 Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: 2024 Election, Constitution, Democracy, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, MAGA, news, Politics, Project 2025, Russia, Supreme Court, Trump Leave a comment“We’re in the process of taking this country back. We are in the process of the second American Revolution, which will remain bloodless, if the left allows it to be.”
— Kevin Roberts, Heritage Foundation, primary author of the Project 2025 plan
Thank you, Kevin, for exposing just how violent a second Trump Administration will be. A more direct threat to democracy can rarely be found than exists in the sentiments behind this exclamation. We are supposed to let autocrats have their way with our democracy, and if we resist, then they will use violence to get what they want.
I intended to write a piece outlining the dangers in Project 2025 (found here: https://www.project2025.org/policy/) as exemplified in their roughly 900 page playbook called Mandate for Leadership: The Conservative Promise (found on the same website). It is intended as the foundation of policies to be implemented by the next Trump Administration and is wildly un-American. But check it out for yourself. Trump and his campaign loudly complain that he has no connection to the project and knows nothing about it. Which may be true, because I doubt that Trump has read any policy documents either as president or as a candidate. Regardless, at least 140 former Trump administration and campaign officials worked on the project including six former Cabinet Secretaries, four nominated Ambassadors and his former deputy chief of staff.
Instead of going blow by blow through the radical ideas espoused as future policies, the bigger picture is important as we see the stark differences between the campaigns of the two major party nominees. Project 2025 is really about people. There is a cliche in Washington that “personnel is policy.” To implement their plan, the forces behind the project intend to use a presidential Executive Order to change the status of over 10,000 government jobs from civil service positions to political appointees, firing all of those long time government employees. This is the way they plan to eliminate the “deep state” and put in place people that have pledged their support to Trump, not to the Constitution, whatever they may claim. This is the key step to creating an autocratic regime. If he is the president, Trump plans to pull in all independent and semi-independent departments, agencies, and commissions and place them under his direct control. The intent is to weaponize the government to go after those that he thinks are his enemies and to pursue policies that personally benefit him.
There will be no more guardrails to uphold our democratic tradition. If you think I am exaggerating, think about this. The Supreme Court this summer declared in Trump v United States that the president is immune from prosecution for any official act taken in office. They did not delineate the extent of “official acts” (a problem, but they left it to themselves to decide in the future what constitutes an official act). They did say that it was inherent in the Constitution that a president was immune from actions taken under the “core powers” delineated in that document. They also articulated two important additional cracks in the guardrails. Any official act is still immune to prosecution even if the president did not have any evidence of malfeasance or simply had bad intentions when, for instance, ordering the Attorney General to prosecute any of his political opponents. Additionally, they declared a president’s right to pardon anyone as “absolute.” Thus, the then thought ridiculous example of a president ordering SEAL Team Six to kill his political rivals and then pardoning them is no longer ridiculous, as Justice Sonia Sotomayor wrote in her dissenting opinion on the case. The president would be immune from prosecution because one core power is his ability to control the military as commander-in-chief. Remember that Trump wanted to use the Insurrection Act to put down demonstrators through military force and to help to keep himself in power in January 2021. Now he will be immune if he tries it again.
The Supreme Court, in my view, is no longer a trustworthy guardrail. Besides, does one really think that in the future Trump will abide by a Supreme Court ruling he does not like? Especially with a bureaucracy behind him that has only one goal in mind, keeping Trump in power? His favorite president is Andrew Jackson who ignored a Supreme Court decision in the 1831 case of Worcester v Georgia. The result was the “Trail of Tears” or the forcible relocation of Native Americans to western reservations. To me that sounds just a little too close to Trump’s promise to round up millions of immigrants, put them in camps, and then send them “back.” The courts in general are suspect when a Trump appointed federal judge threw out the case against him for stealing top secret war plans, nuclear information and other classified documents. Not because of the facts of the case but for some unprecedented legal finding about procedure that legal scholars had no idea was a thing. We are on flimsy ground.
Personally, I think that there are actually three campaigns underway. It is not Democrat vs. Republican vying for the presidency. It is a coalition in favor of democracy (quite the big tent when it stretches from Senator Elizabeth Warren (MA) to former Republican Vice President Dick Cheney) led by Vice President Kamala Harris against the MAGA autocrat wannabes led by Trump. The third campaign? It is the not-so hidden agenda of the Project 2025 folks that want to take our country back to a time when women stayed home in marriages (whether or not they were loved or even safe) to raise kids, minorities knew their place (and it wasn’t in positions of power or even voting), and rich white Christian males ruled over all. Sometimes benevolently, most times in their own interest. This group’s standard bearer is Senator J.D. Vance (OH) the Vice Presidential nominee.
Trump is merely a figure head for the movement. Trump is only interested in making money and keeping himself out of jail. He will do anything the movement wants as long as he keeps the trappings of the presidency (he really likes being called “Sir!”) and anything that helps him personally. He has no real policy agenda, merely a collection of slogans and insults. Vance is the hit man. He was the personal choice of those behind the Project 2025 movement. They were over the moon when he was selected as the Vice Presidential nominee precisely because he was firmly in their camp, would pick up the slack when Trump is writing love letters to Kim Jong Un, actually run the government (with the new tens of thousands of devotees in place) and, let’s face it, Trump is an older man in generally poor mental and physical health, and should he not finish out his term, J.D. is ready to go.
How millions of Americans support a man running for the presidency who is a 34 time convicted felon, been adjudicated as a sex abuser, twice impeached for abusing his office, led a multi-pronged conspiracy to overthrow a free and fair election to keep himself in power and tells lies with real consequences such as the suffering in Springfield Ohio where he lied about the legal immigrants in that city, is beyond me. I honestly cannot get my head around it. We know they are lies because this week on the Sunday talk shows good old J.D. said so. “If I have to create stories” to get attention from the media then, he promised, he is going to continue to do so. (From watching him on TV I’m not too sure how quick on his feet he may be. The first rule of fake news is to deny that it is fake news.)
Trump is totally and completely unqualified to even be mentioned in the same sentence as “president.” He could not enlist in the military and he could not get a security clearance given his background. Yet, here we are. The real story is the one many Americans are too sanguine to believe. They think that because we saved our democracy in 2021 that we will always have it rather than thinking about how those that tried to hijack our democracy have now had some practice and four years to get it straight. The danger is incremental and thus harder to identify. As a student and as an adult I always thought about how Germans in the early 1930’s allowed their democracy to be stolen. It did not happen over night. It was years of small changes and diminished freedoms until suddenly it was too late. And, no, I am not comparing anyone or anything to the Nazis. At least not yet. More like the fascists in Italy in the 1930s. We need to recognize the danger and especially take a close look at that second campaign using Trump as their cover. Those folks are not going away even if Trump loses the election. Besides, the whole lot of the MAGA/Project 2025 crowd are already telegraphing that they will not accept any outcome other than their own victory. It isn’t going to be pretty.
I worry when I hear things like this. A news reporter asked a group of voters in a focus group about Trump’s pronouncements that he will be a dictator on day one and that after this election we won’t have to vote anymore and all the other statements he has made that he will rule as an autocrat. The focus group’s consensus was that worries about losing our democracy are just hyperbole to “scare” people and are just Democrat’s campaign talking points. They concluded that as long as they could vote, we would have a democracy. Hmmmm. I suppose Russia really is a democracy along with the People’s Republic of China and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea. Not only do they vote but they even have the word “republic” in their country’s name!
What could go wrong?
Party Over Country
Posted: February 8, 2024 Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: Border Security, Donald Trump, Immigration, Impeachment, NATO, Russia, Ukraine, United States Constitution Leave a comment“…former President Trump has become citizen Trump…”
–U.S. Court of Appeals for the DC circuit ruling rejecting Trump’s presidential immunity claim
Although the Court of Appeals categorically denied Trump’s claims of “absolute immunity” as a former president, a decision expected to be appealed to the Supreme Court, he continues to act as if he is above the law and continues to try and destroy our country for his own political and monetary gain. His latest power play is the trashing of a significant bipartisan bill put together by Senate, White House and Department of Homeland Security (DHS) negotiators that provides much needed immigration reforms, beefs up security on our southern border and sends crucial aid to Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan and humanitarian assistance in war torn parts of the world.
The 118 billion dollar Emergency National Security Supplemental Appropriations Act, primarily negotiated by Senators James Lankford (R-OK), Chris Murphy (D-CONN) and Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ), was touted as the best border security bill to come out of Congress in decades. It died a shameful death in just over 24 hours. Here is what that means.
In October 2023 President Joe Biden asked for supplemental appropriations to assist Ukraine in its existential war with Russia and to bolster Israel in their war with Hamas and to help Taiwan defend against Chinese aggression. The Republican Speaker of the House Mike Johnson (MAGA-LA) flatly refused to consider any aid overseas without first taking meaningful steps to secure the border. Multiple Senate Republicans joined in to express their support for reforms on the border before acting on the request to aid Ukraine and the others. President Biden agreed and the Senate went to work to hammer out a bipartisan deal. After four months of nearly continuous work, and despite multiple attempts by MAGA supporters to undermine the act without even knowing what was in it, the negotiators unveiled the finished supplemental on Sunday night this week. Before it was fully read and digested, the leadership of the House declared it “DEAD on arrival in the House.” (The caps were in their actual statement. Hmmm. Someone else deals in all caps.) As Senator Murphy lamented, on Sunday night there were 20-25 Republican Senators that said they would support it and vote for it. By Monday night there were only four. What happened?
Trump happened.
Trump put out the word that anyone that voted for the supplemental act would be the target of his retribution. As a result, there was no vote in the House and a procedural vote in the Senate to move to debate over the bill failed. Before Monday night, a notable number of Senators from both parties considered this bill to be the best chance to enhance border security in decades. And then it was gone. Along with aid to Ukraine, a country desperate for supplies to counter the Russian invasion. There were no profiles in courage this week. To underscore the magnitude of the reversal, Republicans got nearly everything that they could hope for in a border bill. Frankly, I believe that they were shocked by how much they got. In past negotiations, Democrats had demanded a path to citizenship for Dreamers and others, but not in this bill. The Democrats agreed that there was a crisis on the border and were looking for concrete measures to improve the system. Additionally, many of the Democrats were focused on our commitments to our friends and allies in Europe and around the world believing that aid to counter Russia and China was paramount. They were willing to deal.
Republicans could not take yes for an answer.
Why would Trump kill it? For several reasons. First, he does not really want to solve the crisis on the border. In many ways, it his identity as a demagogue and provides the fodder to rant and rave about the “others” “invading” our country. If the crisis is solved or even alleviated, he has nothing to run on. By arguing that he can get a better deal when he is president (he can’t — as proven by four years of his presidency) he can continue to argue that the country is being overrun and that it is the Democrats’ fault. Recall the other debacle that took place Tuesday night when the House tried to impeach Secretary of Homeland Defense Alejandro Mayorkas and failed. (They will keep trying until they succeed.) There was no Constitutional basis to do so. It was merely political theater to try and agitate about the border crisis. The very border crisis that they refuse to do anything about. Clearly, the MAGA Republicans and those too afraid to resist them are putting party over country. More specifically, they are putting one man over the needs of our nation. As the Circuit Court identified him, he is citizen Trump. He has no legal or moral authority to dictate anything to the Congress of the United States.
This leads to the other reasons why citizen Trump torpedoed the bipartisan bill. He did it to show that he can. This may be the most dangerous of all the reasons. He demonstrated that in or out of office, he controls the Republicans in the Congress and as a result, given that the Republicans have a majority in the House and very little can get accomplished in the Senate without a filibuster proof majority of Senators, he dictates what gets accomplished in the Congress by vetoing any progress. Trump is laying the groundwork for his autocratic rule in the future.
Likewise, Trump is pro-Putin, pro-Xi and he sends love letters to Kim in North Korea. Aid to Ukraine would run counter to his support for Putin and Russia. Many of his MAGA supporters are likewise enamored of Putin and other “strong men” around the world. ”America First” means withdrawing from NATO and other alliances around the world. Trump is demonstrating to the world that the U.S. cannot be counted upon to meet its commitments and will turn away from our friends in need. Like it or not, without U.S. leadership, the forces of evil in the world have an ever increasing chance of prevailing. The Russian invasion of Ukraine is a prime example. It is a “pay me now or pay me later” proposition. Should Russia prevail in Ukraine, other nations are next on the list. But do not take my word for it, take a look at Finland and Sweden. Both nations rebuffed offers to join NATO for nearly 75 years. They know Russia. Since the invasion of Ukraine, Finland joined NATO and Sweden is in the process of doing so. They recognize the danger from an expansionist Russia.
Add to the picture that Trump is pushing his acolytes to remove Senator Mitch McConnell (R-KY) from his leadership position in the Senate. Why? Because he deigned to work with Democrats on bipartisan bills. Trump is also pushing to remove Ronna McDaniel the current head of the Republican National Committee (RNC) because even though she has let Trump do pretty much whatever he wants, she is now considered not MAGA enough. Trump wants a puppet as the RNC chair so that he has absolute control over the political levers of the party. Additionally, he is already using his “rigged election” mantra in Indiana claiming that Nikki Haley, his only remaining opponent for the presidential nomination, is illegally on the primary ballot there. He wants her removed and if she is not, then obviously “they” are trying to steal the election.
Put all of these pieces together and one can discern that citizen Trump, with no actual role in government, is building the will and the political infrastructure to do as he pleases in our country. His efforts are insidious but ever present.
We are in for a bumpy and dangerous year.
Freedom
Posted: February 22, 2023 Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: Russia, Ukraine Leave a commentThis week on the first anniversary of the Russian assault on Ukraine, President Joe Biden marked the occasion in two important ways. In an act of secrecy worthy of a spy thriller, he visited the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv to reiterate U.S. and NATO support of the Ukrainians in their fight to retain their democracy against a ruthless dictator. The next day, President Biden gave a major speech in Warsaw Poland celebrating the stand that democracies around the world are taking against Russia and vowing that their support will continue until Ukrainian democracy is secure.
One year ago, I am sure that Russian President Vladimir Putin thought that he would be standing in Mariinsky Palace, the ceremonial home of the Ukrainian president, rather than the President of the United States. Many others, whether or not they admit it now, thought the same thing one year ago. There was no way that Ukraine could stand up to the mighty Russian bear. And yet, they did, and they have, and they continue to do so. It must have seemed like the ultimate insult to Mr. Putin that President Biden strode the streets of Kyiv in broad daylight, even as air raid sirens blared during his stroll with Ukrainian President Zelensky. Neither president flinched.
President Biden’s visit lasted five hours after flying all night from Washington to Germany to Poland where he boarded a train for the ten hour trip to Kyiv. It was another ten hour train trip back to Poland after his visit. Not too bad considering his critics think that Mr. Biden is “too old” to continue as president. He seemed invigorated and on top of his game as he proudly stood by Mr. Zelensky’s side and declared “Ukraine stands! Democracy stands!” During his visit, Mr. Biden promised an additional 500 million dollars in military aid to Ukraine. The visit was symbolic, of course, but in many areas of diplomacy and international affairs, showing up is important. It indicates resolve and commitment. It has real meaning. It puts strength behind words that could have been spoken in the White House but that mean so much more when said in the streets of Kyiv.
Several historians pointed out that this is the first time an incumbent American president has been in a war zone and vulnerable to enemy fire since President Abraham Lincoln visited Fort Stevens on the outskirts of Washington D.C. on 12 July 1864. There, during the second day of an attack by Confederate soldiers, President Lincoln stood on a parapet of the fort to see what was happening and came under fire from enemy snipers. Thankfully, he was uninjured. While not trying to make President Biden’s visit comparable to President Lincoln’s, as he did not come under direct fire, it was still a remarkable act of courage personally and as a president. While other presidents have visited war zones before in Viet Nam, Afghanistan and elsewhere, they were visiting U.S troops in areas under U.S. control under very strict security protocols — often in the dark of night. Mr. Biden had no such protection from American forces on the ground which is why the impact of his visit was so powerful and meaningful to the Ukrainians and to our NATO allies and friends.
The following day, Mr. Biden gave a powerful speech in Warsaw. It was perhaps the best foreign policy speech of his presidency and was delivered forcefully and convincingly. In it, he vowed that Russia will “never” win in Ukraine and reiterated that the U.S. and NATO will stand stronger than ever in their support for Ukraine. He also directly refuted a claim made by Mr. Putin in a speech earlier in the day where Mr. Putin claimed that Russia was not attacking Ukraine but merely defending itself from an attack by NATO forces. All lies, as most of the world knows. As Mr. Biden said in his speech, “This war was never a necessity. It’s a tragedy. President Putin chose this war. Every day the war continues is his choice.” He also further emphasized the remarks made by Vice President Kamala Harris a few days before that the Russians are conducting “crimes against humanity without shame or compunction.” This is a statement that has meaning in the long run as it triggers international laws and treaties that will attempt to hold Mr. Putin and his flunkies accountable for the purposeful death and destruction the Russians are inflicting on innocent civilians.
Mr. Biden put into words what is at stake. Simply put, it is freedom. Not just for Ukraine but for the world. As he said in his speech:
Freedom.
There is no sweeter word than freedom. There is no nobler goal than freedom. There is no higher aspiration than freedom. Americans know that, and you know it. And all that we do now must be done so our children and grandchildren will know it as well.
Freedom.
The enemy of the tyrant and the hope of the brave and the truth of the ages.
Freedom.
This is where the far right MAGA crowd in the U.S. House of Representatives misses the mark. They are very critical of our policy towards Ukraine and our willingness to support them in their fight against Russia. Some are open admirers of Mr. Putin and all that he stands for. I will resist slamming their ignorant statements, for in the end, most Americans understand that if we allow Russia to subjugate Ukraine, it will not end there. For the first time since World War II, a country, Russia, is openly saying that the old world order where nations do not subjugate other nations by unprovoked force, no longer applies. If we do not stop Mr. Putin in Ukraine, then the Baltic States, Poland, and other eastern European nations will be in line for Russian aggression. Mr. Putin has for years reiterated his belief, first stated in 2005, that the collapse of the Soviet Union and its empire “was the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the [20th] century.” Worse than World War I. Worse than World War II. He intends to restore that empire. It is his vision quest.
If he is not stopped in Ukraine, then nowhere is safe. Make no mistake, under President Biden if Russia attacks a NATO country, it is war. It is better to stop him in Ukraine than to allow that to happen. It is incredible that some right wing MAGA advocates do not know or understand history or the threat imposed by Russia.
There is another player on the world stage watching all of this. China. Be assured that President Xi Jinping is following events in Europe closely as he contemplates his own ambitions towards Taiwan. A year ago he would be among those that thought Ukraine had little chance of holding off the Russians and he likely assumed that NATO would not band together to support them. While China is willing to take the long view, he must now assess whether the Taiwanese will fight as relentlessly as the Ukrainians. He must also assess whether the rest of the world will come to Taiwan’s aid as they have in Ukraine. He must also assess whether his own military, in which no one currently in his Armed Forces has experienced full scale combat, is up to the test against the U.S. and other NATO countries and friends that have become combat hardened in over twenty years of wars in Asia.
It is not just about Ukraine. It is about fighting tyranny and autocrats the world over. Will democracies be up to the task? One year ago many autocrats around the world assessed the U.S. and NATO as weak and unwilling to stand up for their principles. Probably, that is a legacy from the previous administration. Now those autocrats know the answer.
Let’s make no mistake, however. The war in Ukraine will continue for a long time. Perhaps years. While the U.S. and NATO have been crucial to Ukraine’s success, the aid given so far mostly just keeps Ukraine from losing, rather than winning. The West must increase the lethality and range of the weapons and systems supplied to Ukraine. Without expanding our support, the war will continue to drag on and on. In the end, do not forget that Russia has a larger population, economy and military than Ukraine. A war of attrition is not good for Ukraine and that is how the war is slowly evolving. In some respects, it resembles the trench warfare days of World War I. If the West truly believes that this is the critical stand that democracies must take to prevent the spread of dictatorships, then it is worth giving the Ukrainians the weapons they need, including offensive capabilities.
As the well worn phrase explains, “freedom isn’t free.”
Ukraine (Still) Has Not Perished
Posted: October 12, 2022 Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: Russia, Ukraine, War Crimes 1 CommentIn English, the Ukrainian national anthem is known as “Ukraine Has Not Perished.” Indeed, it has not perished, even as the unprovoked Russian invasion of its territory continues. The initial invasion took place in February 2014 and the Russians invaded again in February 2022. Over seven months ago, Russian President Vladimir Putin went all in on his long-standing desire to annex all of Ukraine, not just Crimea or the eastern part known as the Donbas. After seven long months of warfare, massive casualties continue to mount on both sides of the conflict. Recently, however, the Ukrainians have shown themselves to be the superior force on the ground — both in terms of their fighting ability and in terms of their will to destroy the Russian troops invading their country. There does not appear to be any comparable will to fight in any of the Russian units engaged in combat and thus the tide is starting to slowly turn in the Ukrainians’ favor.
Perhaps surprisingly so, the Ukrainian successes create an ever more dangerous situation. The last few weeks have shown that President Putin is not willing to back off of his stated goal to crush the Ukrainian people, overthrow its government, and install a puppet regime that is controlled by Moscow. Indeed, he is doubling down despite his gross miscalculation that he could take Ukraine in a matter of days with a quick strike into Kyiv. To show his resolve to control Ukraine, earlier this month he formally annexed the regions of Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia in eastern Ukraine. That part of the country is where the fighting on the ground continues and the Russian and pro-Russian forces are concentrated there. The annexation was announced despite one important thing — the Russians do not control all of that territory. In fact, Ukrainian forces have the Russians in retreat in several parts of the annexed areas. This is where things get dicey.
President Putin declared that those four regions were now a part of Russia proper (just as he claimed Crimea in 2014) and that an attack on them would be considered an attack on the homeland. In a late September speech, President Putin declared that he was willing to use nuclear weapons to defend Russia’s “territorial integrity.” Since then he has reiterated that he is willing to use “all means necessary” to protect the newly acquired territory, which is a euphemism for threatening to use Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) to prevent Ukraine from retaking their own territory. (WMD are chemical, biological and nuclear weapons.) Bluff? Bluster? Empty threats? Warning? No one is sure, and that is the problem. Mr. Putin backed himself into a corner that now threatens the stability of Russia as a country and threatens his own iron grip on the population. He considers the current state of affairs to be “an existential threat” to Russia and to himself. Is it possible that if he sees his own safety and power threatened that he would lash out? Possibly, but let’s look a little closer.
The past few days have given us some ideas as to how Mr. Putin might respond to an expanded war. When the twelve mile long Kerch Strait Bridge from Crimea to Russia was partially damaged on Sunday, the Russians retaliated by launching massive air strikes using approximately one hundred cruise missiles and suicide drones in one morning to attack Ukrainian infrastructure and civilian neighborhoods. (So far, no one has claimed responsibility for the attack on the bridge, but Russia assumes it was Ukrainian special forces.) The Russian supply of such weapons is not endless, but air strikes are probably the primary method that the Russians will use to continue to disrupt daily life in Ukraine and to inflict serious damage. The intent is to break the will of the civilian population and force the Ukrainian government to seek a settlement of some kind. It will not work.
The Russian style of warfare is based on raw brutality. Massive numbers of people and weapons are used against every aspect of an opponent’s military and civilian systems, capabilities, support and people. The term “collateral damage” does not exist for Russia. Killing civilians and destroying playgrounds, hospitals, apartment buildings, and any other area of a city is the point. Torture is a tool to be used. Indiscriminate bombing is a tool to be used. Everything is on the table. If brutality is the point, then that adds credibility to any threat to use WMD. So does that include nuclear weapons?
In my opinion, no. Not because Mr. Putin considers them to be off the table. Rather, so far, he calculates that he has other means at his disposal to achieve his war aims. In my many years in the military, I never seriously believed that we, or anyone else, would use nuclear weapons. The deterrent impact of sufficient numbers of weapons on both sides made it highly improbable. But now, for the first time in my adult life (I was around for the Cuban Missile Crisis, but that is a different situation), the chances are not zero. I still think that the probability of Mr. Putin using a nuclear weapon, even as a “demonstration,” is incredibly low, but no one knows for certain what he may be capable of doing. Probably more likely is the use of chemical weapons. The Russians used them, or at least abetted their use, in Syria. It may be as the Russian army withdraws from yet another town or village that the incoming Ukrainian forces may be subject to a chemical attack. If so, it is likely to be on a small scale and intended to be a deterrent to a continuing Ukrainian offensive and a warning to the rest of the world that the Russians are not bluffing when they threaten to defend themselves using “any means necessary.”
More likely, the Russians will expand their use of asymmetric attacks such as cyberwarfare, economic warfare such as limiting or stopping the export of oil or natural gas, or halting the shipment of goods (especially grain) from the Black Sea. A clear sign of such efforts occurred in late September this year when Swedish and Danish sensors detected explosions in the Baltic Sea. It was soon discovered that the Nord Stream pipelines running from Russia to Europe were experiencing massive leaks, thus stopping the flow of natural gas to Europe. To date, there is no official blame or explanation for the leaks. It is widely believed, however, that Russian special forces are to blame. The Russians, and other nations including the United States, have the capability to operate from submarines near the seabed to disrupt the wide array of modern infrastructure that crosses great bodies of water such as gas and oil lines and fiber optic cables. As winter approaches, Mr. Putin may be pushing European nations, especially Germany, to give up their support of Ukraine by disrupting their economies and signaling that other elements of infrastructure could be at risk if their support to Ukraine continues. It may be a long, cold winter in much of Europe. In the short run, it actually hurts Russia as the gas it sells to Europe is a major element of support to the Russian economy. The side effect is to again signal that Mr. Putin is willing to do “anything,” even if it hurts his own people, to achieve his goals. I would expect to see more of these moves from the Russians, as long as they can plausibly (or in some cases implausibly) deny their involvement.
The war in Ukraine will drag on for months to come, possibly years. Mr. Putin knows that he is in trouble on the ground and his army is being destroyed. Recent attempts to mobilize 300,000 additional troops to fight in the war have gone badly. Russian men are leaving the country in droves. Reportedly, over 200,000 have fled to Kazakhstan alone. Another 100,000 are said to have left for other countries surrounding Russia in order to avoid conscription. Even if he raises an additional 300,000 troops, they will be poorly trained and equipped based on what we see with his allegedly “elite” forces that have already been decimated on the battlefield. They will only be cannon fodder, which is yet another indicator that the Russian army and Mr. Putin in particular have no concerns about the lives and well-being of their soldiers or their civilians. It is worth noting that Mr. Putin’s retaliatory strikes this week and his threats to use “any means necessary” are not aimed at the Ukrainian soldiers on the front. Rather, they are all aimed at the Ukrainian civilian population. It is terrifying for them, but as has happened throughout history, his terror tactics only increase the resolve of those under attack.
Mr. Putin has many options left in his bag of tricks. However, even he must recognize that he does not want to go toe-to-toe with NATO. He must also recognize that as his attacks on Ukrainian cities escalates, he runs the risk of NATO and other friendly nations increasing the number and sophistication of the weapons they are sending to Ukraine.
It is hard to know how this conflict ends, but it is increasingly less likely that there will be a negotiated settlement.
Tom
Into The Fray 
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