Anticipatory Obedience

“The first term everybody was fighting me. In this term, everybody wants to be my friend.”

— The President-elect at Mar-a-Lago in December 2024.

Yale professor Timothy Snyder in his 2017 book On Tyranny focused on the United States’ turn towards authoritarianism and tyranny in the context of American politics. Among other issues, he addressed a key factor in authoritarian efforts to take control that he calls “anticipatory obedience.” In essence, it means that individuals and institutions change their behavior in an attempt to conform to what they think the repressive regime will want, conformity that comes without any effort on the authoritarian’s part to demand it. It is a key factor in cementing an autocrat’s rule as well as informing the regime as to what they can get away with. As a result, in many cases the incoming regimes accrue more power more quickly than they thought possible. Many scholars point to current events in Hungary under Victor Orban as illustrative of how to turn a modern democracy into an autocracy. Victor Orban, not coincidentally, is the shining star of the MAGA movement and a personal hero to our next president.

There is a fine line between political reality, lobbying for one’s preferred policies and practicing anticipatory obedience. With any new administration organizations and individuals work to influence the new policies sure to come with the changes in the power dynamic. For example, in the modern era inauguration funds are raised by the party of choice to make a grand event of the days leading to and on the day that power is transferred. It is not unusual for political parties to sell exclusive access or V.I.P. tickets to big donors. This year, the incoming administration has run out of tickets to give out and is still raking in huge donations. According to the New York Times, by early January the current inauguration committee raised over 170 million dollars and is still collecting large donations, despite the fact that there are no V.I.P. tickets still available. That compares to a total of 107 million dollars in 2017. By some calculations the President-elect’s allies since Election Day have raised roughly 250 million dollars for the inauguration, to help promote his policies and to fill his coffers. There are no limits on the amount of any contribution and even although access is now closed to many events, some contributors are still writing one and two million dollar checks. Some of the most famous of the tech-bros have contributed millions in their company names. It is not happening because they really like the guy. Many of those same individuals were attacked during the campaign including threats to throw Mark Zuckerberg of Meta (formerly face book) in jail. He donated a million dollars to the inauguration. Was that enough? Apparently not as Mr. Zuckerberg also did away with fact checking face book posts, moved staff out of “blue” California to “red” Texas and took other measures to ensure that he would be on the good side of the incoming president. All without being asked.

Other examples of anticipatory obedience include the decisions by the billionaire owners of The Washington Post and Los Angeles Times to ignore decades of precedent and to not endorse any candidate for president after they conferred at Mar-a-Lago with the MAGA candidate. (Both papers are said to have endorsements of Vice President Kamala Harris ready to go when they were pulled.) As a result, both newspapers lost senior staff members and lots of subscribers, but they pleased a budding autocrat without being asked.

This week we are seeing numerous examples of anticipatory obedience in Congress. Republican (are there any left?) Senators are about to confirm several totally unqualified candidates to the incoming Cabinet because the Dear Leader wants them. He wants them because they will show absolute fealty to him and not to the Constitution. Does anyone really believe that, for example, Senator Joni Ernst (R-IA) really, truly believes that Pete Hegseth will be an effective Secretary of Defense? Of course not. Most of her colleagues do not think so either but they are afraid of what the MAGA president might do to them politically or even personally. In the process they are giving up one of their most important duties under the Constitution, the duty to provide advice and consent to a president’s Cabinet nominees. While it may be argued that incoming presidents should have the people in the Cabinet that share the same policy views, it is also necessary to entrust our nation to people with a solid understanding and devotion to the Constitution and that are competent in their ability to run their department.

The Speaker of the House Mike Johnson (MAGA – LA) yesterday fired the Republican chairman of the House Intelligence Committee Representative Mike Turner (R – OH). The reason according to many sources (but not according to the Speaker who gave a really lame excuse that it was time for someone else to have a chance) is that a decree came down from Mar-a-Lago to get rid of him. Why? Representative Turner was too bi-partisan and would not always toe the dictated party line. By all accounts, Mr. Turner was a solid Chairman who took his duties seriously and understood the importance of overseeing the intelligence community in a bi-partisan manner. National security is a serious business. An ill thought out policy on education could hurt our country but it is recoverable. A national security mistake could end our existence. Apparently, there will be no serious oversight in the near future.

Other examples abound, and the inauguration is not until Monday 20 January.

I for one, believe that our democracy and the institutions that protect it will be sorely tested in the coming months and years. It is hard to figure out what individual citizens can do to actively protect our republic. Professor Snyder looks at the lessons taught through history — autocrats and dictators whether fascists or communists — and finds the common threads that cause people to allow themselves to be subjugated. In my mind, anticipatory obedience is akin to the old saying “go along to get along.” Expediency and self-preservation take priority over doing what is right. The Silicon Valley tech-bros are the budding oligarchs of the United States. They are hitching their wagons to the incoming president for a reason — they are sure that he will create the conditions to allow them to wield power unobstructed. Elon Musk already thinks he is the leader of our government. He is dabbling in politics in Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom, using his billions and his own platform “X” to influence millions of followers to support far right wing agendas in Europe. Surely he expects the MAGA crowd to push our country hard right. President Biden warned us last night in his farewell speech that “today, an oligarchy is taking shape in America of extreme wealth, power and influence that really threatens our entire democracy, our basic rights and freedom” and he warned of a “tech-industrial complex” of unchecked power over our lives.

Don’t make it easy. As professor Snyder writes, “do not obey in advance.”