Abandon The Truth And Lose Democracy

Posted: January 6, 2024 | Author: Tom | Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: 14th Amendment, 2024 Election, 6 January Insurrection, Congress, Constitution, Donald Trump, Politics, Supreme Court, Trump, United States Constitution | Leave a comment

“Don’t it always seem to go, that you don’t know what you’ve got ’til it’s gone.”

— Joni Mitchell in “Big Yellow Taxi”

Today marks the third anniversary of the insurrection designed to keep Donald J. Trump in office. Yesterday, President Joe Biden gave a speech in Valley Forge Pennsylvania reminding all of us that the attack that day was anti-American and against all of the values that we say we stand for in our country. He also reminded us that without due diligence, it will happen again. Sadly, he is correct.

The effective propaganda campaign waged by the Insurrectionist-in-Chief and his accomplices in the U.S. House of Representatives and the right-wing media is astonishingly effective. The Washington Post made headlines this week when it announced that in a Washington Post-University of Maryland poll, twenty-five percent of Americans believe that it is “definitely” or “probably” true that the FBI instigated the assault on the Capitol. Even more astounding and dangerous to me is that in that same poll, seventy-seven percent of Trump voters are “not sure” or “definitely” believe that the FBI organized and encouraged the attack.

As we start the new year, it seems that our collective optimism that a new year can bring new and improved elements to our lives, is, I am afraid, misplaced. Apparently, the MAGA attempts to destroy our country so that a “strong man” (hint, hint) can take charge and straighten out our nation’s course are going to continue and where possible, are doubled down. Let’s start with the House of Representatives. The MAGA Republicans (essentially all of those Republicans in the House) are holding hostage a bill to provide aid to Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan and our southern border until all of their demands (which coincidentally exactly match Trump’s) are met. For good measure, they are threatening to fail to act to keep the government open when the current continuing resolution (CR) partially runs out on 19 January 2024. (The CR is in two parts for different government functions. The other runs out on 2 February,) While Republicans in the Senate negotiate with Senate Democrats and the president, the House leadership refuses to participate and Speaker Mike Johnson (MAGA-LA) supports the most extreme demands of his caucus.

All of which ignores the fact that the president and Democrats in the House and Senate all agree that we need to strengthen the border and have asked for roughly fourteen billion dollars to hire new Custom and Border Patrol (CBP) agents and asylum judges, provide aid to border areas dealing with the influx of migrants and to take other measures to strengthen the border. This is not enough for the Republican House who demand, among other things, restricting asylum requests and detaining those seeking asylum until their case is heard (currently that could be years), building Trump’s border wall (while over-riding any environmental or historical concerns and allowing for non-negotiable rights of imminent domain to confiscate private land for the wall), rolling back current protections for immigrant minors, and they want to preclude any reforms to the immigration system such as paths to citizenship or legalizing “Dreamers” (immigrants that were brought into the country as young children and now have lived, gone to school and worked in the United States and are, for all practical purposes, Americans.) There is more in their plan codified in House Resolution 2, but you get the idea.

In sum, the House under the leadership of a MAGA Speaker refuses to help Ukraine fight Russia, provide needed assistance to Israel and Gaza, support Taiwan against an ever increasingly aggressive China, and provide needed assistance to our own border. But of course, they do not really care about the border. It is only a cudgel to be used to campaign against Democrats in general and President Biden in particular. Or as Texas MAGA Representative Troy Nehls said this week about the president’s border proposals, “Let me tell you, I’m not willing to do too damn much right now to help a Democrat and to help Joe Biden’s approval rating.” A great American. The issue is not solving the border problems, it is winning an election.

Speaking of such, let us return to the insurrection that increasing numbers of Americans believe is either fake, or “no big deal.” The story is a familiar one but worth repeating. Trump won the Electoral College in 2016, but as you will recall, he lost the popular vote. Immediately he called “fraud” “rigged” and claimed that there were gross improprieties in the way the results were tabulated. He then put together a national commission to prove that there was voter fraud in the 2016 election. The results of the investigation? Crickets. There was no fraud. The commission quietly disbanded. In Trump world, very little is new or original so he used the same script in 2020. Only this time he lost both the popular vote and the Electoral College. As president he tried to marshal all the resources at his command to upend the results and remain in office. When those efforts failed to work, he instigated an insurrection and gave “aid” and “comfort to the enemies” of the United States.

Here is the through line. From the beginning Trump claimed that the “deep state” and “Democrats” did not want him to be president because he would fight for the “little guy.” He made that argument in 2016, again during his presidency, and in 2020. Those lined up against the little guy would do anything to keep him from becoming president again. He has been consistent over the last three years in claiming that the 2020 and 2016 elections were rigged. Any effort to debunk that claim is derided as being part of the conspiracy to keep him from office. Thus the insurrection was dialed up by the FBI, the courts are against him, he is unfairly being kept from what is rightfully his (and his cult followers) and on and on and on. It becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy, a continuing spiral. Everything is rigged and you, the common person, are getting screwed because you are not getting what you deserve and I will give it to you. When someone is in the cult, it all makes sense. Swallowing wholesale the idea that the establishment does not want Trump in power results in everything else that happens to him make sense. It is not his fault, it is the deep state out to get him. For true believers (and there are millions, but there are also politicians that don’t buy any of that junk but see a path to their own power — more despicable than the believers) it all makes sense.

Very dangerous.

Which leads us to the Supreme Court agreeing to hear Trump’s appeal of the Colorado court’s decision to invoke the 14th Amendment, Section 3 finding that he was part of an insurrection against the United States and therefore ineligible to hold office.

For a minute, I have to pause. Which one of us would ever think that it was necessary to go to court to stop a major U.S. political party candidate from running for president after instigating an insurrection? The mere thought of it is absurd. In my mind it would be inconceivable that anyone that tried to overthrow the government would be a leading candidate for president. Or at least it would have been for most of my life. I used to think about some folks in our country and their actions and say “this is not who we are” as a nation. Now, given that millions of people, knowing all of the facts, still support a man that tried to overthrow our government, I am beginning to wonder. Maybe this is who we are as a nation.

My own view is that the Supreme Court will find a technicality to keep Trump on the ballot without actually addressing whether or not he fomented an insurrection and subsequently gave aid and comfort to the insurrectionists. If that happens, then we have lost our way as a nation. Even now, Trump calls the insurrectionists “patriots” and “political hostages.” He vows to pardon them and have government officials apologize to them. He promises revenge and retribution to get even with his perceived enemies.

Let’s quickly review the facts. More than 140 police officers were injured that day. To date 1,240 individuals have been charged with federal crimes relating to that day, 452 of them for assaulting law enforcement officers and roughly 900 have been convicted in a trial or pleaded guilty to their crimes. For 187 minutes Trump sat on his butt and refused efforts as Commander-in-Chief to take action to stop it, which in my professional career constitutes a gross negligence of duty. Obviously his oath to “preserve, protect and defend” the Constitution means nothing to him. This man has no socially redeeming value to our country. And yet, he has a chance of being elected our president and becoming a “dictator” on day one, as he publicly promised.

Some people are upset that the courts may decide that Trump is ineligible to run for president. Let the voters decide at the ballot box, they say. I say why? He has already proven that he will not accept the results of any election unless he wins in a landslide. He has tried since 2015 to actively undermine our democracy. He led a coup for goodness sake! What makes anyone think that he will follow any rules, regulations or “guardrails”? He will not. He does not deserve to run for president much less to serve. Is it undemocratic to disallow Barak Obama or George W. Bush from running? They would be popular candidates today and many people would vote for them. They cannot of course, because the Constitution says that they cannot. The same Constitution applies to Trump. I am tired of him getting special consideration that you or I would not get. Frankly, I am just tired. The man is ruining our country, wholly aided and abetted by weak people in the Republican MAGA party that are literally physically afraid of him or that have sold their souls for a smidgeon of power.

Too many people think that “it can’t happen here.” All of the evidence is right in front of our faces. It can happen here. It is happening here. There are forces at work to destroy our country in order to rebuild it in their image of a white, “Christian,” male dominated society where the “right people” dictate to the rest of us as to how to live our lives. Trump just happens to be their standard bearer. Stopping him will put a crimp in their plans but it will not stop their efforts when a new Trumpian figure is in place. The bulk of the Republican party no longer is the party of small government, state’s rights and limited spending. They still talk that game but their actions show that really they want a large monolithic government that dictates the life choices, health care, education, even what books to read for our fellow citizens. It is their way or the highway. Otherwise you and I are “vermin” “poisoning the blood” of America. Believe what they tell you.

For 246 years we have had a pretty good ride as a democratic republic that values the freedom of individuals. Ours is not a perfect union, but throughout our history we strived “to form a more perfect union.” We sure will miss it if we lose it.

“A Republic If You Can Keep It”

Posted: December 21, 2023 | Author: Tom | Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: 14th Amendment, 2020 Election. Insurrection, 2024 Election, Constitution, Donald Trump, Insurrection, Politics, SCOTUS, Supreme Court, Trump | Leave a comment

In a 4-3 vote on 19 December 2023, the Colorado Supreme Court reached a momentous and far-reaching decision. Citing Section 3 of the 14th Amendment, they deemed that Donald J. Trump was ineligible to be president again because he engaged in an insurrection on 6 January 2021. This decision raises many perplexing questions that could impact the future of our democratic republic.

The 14th Amendment was enacted in 1868 to solidify the civil rights gained through the Civil War. Primarily, it protects the rights of all Americans by addressing the basic tenets of citizenship in the United States. Perhaps its most cited sections concern birth-right citizenship and equal protection under the law found in Section 1 of the five sections. Section 3 is included to prevent former Confederates from holding state or federal office and reads as follows:

“No person shall be a Senator or Representative in Congress, or elector of President and Vice President, or hold any office, civil or military, under the United States, or under any state, who, having previously taken an oath, as a member of Congress, or as an officer of the United States, or as a member of any state legislature, or as an executive or judicial officer of any state, to support the Constitution of the United States, shall have engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the same, or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof. But Congress may by a vote of two-thirds of each House, remove such disability.”

The Colorado decision will undoubtedly be appealed by Trump’s lawyers to the Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS), as I believe it should. While current “conservatives” push state’s rights, our system will not function if each state decides for itself what criteria are necessary to run for president. The question is how quickly the SCOTUS will hear the case. The Colorado court stayed its decision until 4 January 2024, unless the case is heard by the SCOTUS before then. The date reflects a 5 January deadline for printing the state’s primary ballot. There is precedent for a quick SCOTUS decision regarding presidential ballots as found in the 5-4 decision in 2000 that effectively handed George W. Bush the presidency in the case Bush v Gore.

Before moving forward with this piece, there are a few things to say up front. I am not an attorney and certainly not an expert on the Constitution. I do, however, have a brain and believe that this section of the amendment is pretty straight forward in its language. I must also add that this case in not the result of far left wing radicals or an attempt by Democrats to derail the Trump campaign. The plaintiffs in the case are five conservative Republicans and an independent voter. The original arguments for applying the 14th Amendment to Trump came from some of the most conservative judges in the country, including members of the Federalist Society. It remains relevant to remember that the ruling disqualifies Trump from the ballot. It does not impose any punishment or result in a conviction for a crime. As is often cited, he is not qualified under the 14th Amendment just as he would not be qualified if he failed to meet the other requirements for the presidency under the Constitution (at least 35 years old, a natural born citizen and lived in the country for at least 14 years).

It would be easy to get down in the weeds and parse every word of Section 3. I am sure some will do exactly that. It seems to me that there are a few salient points that address the issues in larger ways through these main arguments.

Is the president an “officer of the United States?” Common sense and logic say yes. Why would the Constitution disqualify an insurrectionist from every office requiring an oath to the Constitution, except for the highest office in the land and the one most susceptible to danger from insurrection? The counter argument is that the Constitution often references specific requirements, duties or official actions for office holders. The President and Vice President are not listed in Section 3 by name so therefore they cannot be disqualified for being insurrectionists. This just does not pass the logic test. It does not even pass the Trump logic test. In other court cases he is arguing that he is immune from prosecution as an officer of the government, but here, he claims not to be.

Another area of dispute involves the boundaries of what exactly constitutes an insurrection. Was the attack on Congress on 6 January an insurrection? And if it was, how is Trump as president responsible for the attack or giving “aid and comfort” to it? To me, the actions Trump took for days and weeks leading up to the attack clearly demonstrate his intent and clear actions to prevent the peaceful transfer of power. The counter argument is that Trump has never been found guilty of engaging “in an insurrection or rebellion,” indeed he has yet even to be indicted for insurrection. Therefore, the argument goes, he cannot be disqualified. The Colorado Supreme Court and the lower court before it, studied the available, exhaustive investigations into the attack and unequivocally declared it to be an insurrection. I am with them.

Some argue that the disqualification would be imposed without due process. Again, I am not an attorney but it seems that Trump had lawyers in the court room presenting the case for his continued eligibility. They presented arguments as to why the Constitution should not apply and provided evidence to support their case. They will have the same opportunity in front of the SCOTUS. What more do they want?

Other arguments against the disqualification include questions concerning whether or not the provisions in this amendment are “self-executing.” In other words, is it a provision that can stand on its own and that can be enforced without any other action or laws required? There are a number of self-executing provisions in the Constitution, especially in the designation of powers of the three branches of government. Partly, this is about what exactly is an insurrection or rebellion. Should it be defined in law with specific consequences clarifying the 14th Amendment?

These are the broad outlines of the legal arguments swirling around the Colorado decision. The real fall out, of course, is political. Many MAGA and Republican luminaries are arguing that Trump’s fitness and qualifications for office should be decided at the ballot box. It is, they shout, un-American to keep the people from voting for the candidate of their choice. When I stop laughing, it might be worth noting that Trump tried, and continues to try, to do exactly that. He still claims he won the 2020 election and worked hard (including an insurrection) to keep the will of the voters from coming to fruition. He already tried to overthrow the government! He tried to prevent the duly elected president from taking office! How can that be any more un-American or anti-democratic? One might argue that disqualifying him from the ballot is actually the most pro-American, pro-democracy act we could imagine. The court system works “without fear or favor!”

(Note: In a future piece I plan to address Trump’s attacks on the judiciary, of which this is one more. The main institution that saved our Republic after the 2020 election was the courts. Trump is now working as hard as he can to disrupt, destroy and de-legitimize our court system. If he succeeds, there will be no guard rails to save our democracy should he prevail in 2024.)

The vast majority of the original citizens impacted by Section 3 of the 14th Amendment were never indicted or tried for insurrection or rebellion. There were no Congressional laws defining how the amendment should be applied. Why must we always bend the system to fit Trump’s desires and demands?

I hope that the Justices decide the case purely on legal and Constitutional grounds while ignoring the crescendo of pro-Trumpers that will put tremendous pressure on them to “stay out of politics.” Screaming “separation of powers” and all of that. I do not see how the SCOTUS can ignore the political and social ramifications of any decision they make. It will be viewed as a political decision, whichever way they go. My guess is that they will decide the issue on a narrow technical aspect of the law and the Constitution. As some suggest, they may hang their hat on the final provision of the section and decide that since the Congress can override a “disability” with a two-thirds vote of each House, then this is really a matter for the Congress to decide and the courts should stay out of it.

In the end, we will be further down the road of dysfunction and division. 2024 will be wild. Be there.

Many Of Us Are Vermin

Posted: November 13, 2023 | Author: Tom | Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: 2024 Election, Amendments to the Constitution, Constitution, Deep State, Project 2025, Voter Suppression | Leave a comment

“We pledge to you that we will root out the communists, Marxists, fascists, and the radical left thugs that live like vermin within the confines of our country that lie and steal and cheat on elections. They’ll do anything whether legally or illegally, to destroy America and to destroy the American Dream.”

— Donald J. Trump speech on Veteran’s Day 2023

In case it is not clear, the ex-president is referring to anyone that voted against him or that does not personally show their loyalty and devotion to him. Not to the Constitution. To him. In case he was not clear enough, he went on to say that “the threat from outside sources is far less sinister, dangerous and grave than the threat from within. Because if you have a capable, competent, smart, tough leader, Russia, China, North Korea, they’re not going to want to play with us.” Since I absolutely do not support the ex-president, I suppose that makes me more of a threat to my fellow Americans than Putin, XI or Kim. Who knew? And I guess that makes me, and many of you that read this blog, vermin. What happens to vermin? They get exterminated. This is not the first time that the ex-president and future hopeful dictator has used dehumanizing terminology about his political opponents, just like in Europe in the 1920s and 30s.

Hyperbole, you say? Trump being Trump, you say? I agree that it is Trump being Trump — Trump telling us what he plans to do should he get elected in 2024. As I’ve written in this space before, history reveals that dictators and autocrats tell the world of their plans before they implement them. They do not always succeed, but that doesn’t mean they don’t try. Plans are already in place and workers are already being recruited to take over the government in 2025 when Trump, or someone like him, takes over the presidency. If you doubt it, take a look at the tenets of the 2025 Presidential Transition Project commonly referred to as Project 2025. Under the auspices of the Heritage Foundation, future members of the Trump administration are putting together their playbook to take over the executive branch of the government “on day one.” The planners are adherents of the “unitary executive theory.” This theory posits that the president controls the entire federal executive branch (there are no independent agencies such as the Department of Justice, Federal Reserve, Federal Communications Commission, etc.) and that Congress cannot limit a president’s control over the executive branch because the Constitution established them as totally separate branches.

The plan has four pillars. Pillar One: Mandate for Leadership. This is a roughly 900 page book that reveals the methods to realign the administrative state and to implement specific policies. Pillar Two: People Are Policy. The “deep state” thwarted the ex-president from implementing his desired policies and activities in his first term because federal workers are inherently “liberals”. Therefore, their argument goes, they must be replaced by people that are loyal to “conservative” (Trumpian) principles. There is already a data base for future federal employees that have been scrubbed and vetted to ensure their loyalty to Trump and his views. They will replace the workers currently in the government. The goal is to have 10.000 workers ready to go to work in the federal bureaucracy on Inauguration Day. Several thousand have already been selected. (You can apply here, if you are so inclined.) Pillar Three: Training. Online courses (later, in person courses will be added) are available now in subjects such as Conservative Governance 101 and Conservative Governance: Advancing Policy. Pillar Four: Executive Orders. This section instructs future administration officials as to what, and how policies are made through executive orders. It helpfully supplies an appendix with templates for such orders impacting a variety of policies.

Among other things, this project tells me that Trumpism will survive Trump. The pillars support Trump’s view of government, but any MAGA Trump impersonator that gets elected president will be using this same approach to governing.

As the MAGA politicians feel more comfortable with their chances of winning the election, they have become more comfortable with pronouncing their plans for a Trump (or suitable substitute) administration. Besides rooting out the vermin among us, their greatest hits include the following:

Investigating with the intent to prosecute those critical of him including former administration members General John Kelly, Attorney General William Barr, White House Counsel Ty Cobb and General Mark Milley, to name a few.
Executive Orders to deploy the military domestically on Inauguration Day under the Insurrection Act.
Achieve retribution by arresting his political opponents including President Biden and his family. They are doing it “so I can do it too.”
Pardon the January 6 insurrectionists who he claims are political “hostages.”
Appoint only sycophants to the Cabinet.
Reimpose and expand the “Muslim ban.”
Designate drug cartels as “unlawful enemy combatants” and use U.S. military special forces to enter Mexico and attack them.
Deputize local law enforcement and federalize the National Guard to seek out and round up millions of immigrants. placing them in newly built “camps” until they can be deported.
End birthright citizenship enacted in the 14th Amendment.

The list can go on and on. Remember, this is the guy that says that Article II of the Constitution gives him the power “to do whatever I want.” He is building a government in waiting that believes that is true. Of course, this is also the guy that is still whining about losing the election and saying that because of “massive fraud” it “allows for the termination of all rules, regulations and articles, even those found in the Constitution.”

The election is a year away. A lot can happen in a year. Yet, I am flabbergasted that millions of people think that the ex-president should be back in office. Given that some are delusional, some are hood-winked by the grifter-in-chief and some truly pine for an autocratic leader that will “restore” our white, Christian nation, there are still way too many people that say they support Trump. It is too early to worry about polls. At this state of the game people will express their political anger and unhappiness by expressing support for unpalatable candidates. When they get into the voting booth, most of the time, they reevaluate their choices, especially when our democracy is on the line. None-the-less, Trump clearly thinks he is the anointed one and is preparing accordingly. With lots of help.

This is not a “the sky is falling” piece. The above is a factual statement of what the MAGA folks say out loud that they want to do to our country. They are proud of what they want to do. Trump started a movement that will probably continue — at least for awhile — without him. If he sticks around, he will have lots of help. The “Republicans” in the House of Representatives are a fully owned subsidiary of Trump, Inc. They will aid and abet him. Numerous state legislatures around the country are totally in the Trump camp. They will aid and abet him. (Take the case of Ohio where voters overwhelmingly voted for an amendment to their state Constitution allowing the right to an abortion. The legislature is now working feverishly to pass legislation to eliminate any role for the judiciary in interpreting the new amendment. Only the legislature will be able to do so and they intend to put into law draconian conditions for obtaining an abortion, thus effectively eliminating it in the state despite the will of the majority.)

Some observers are not worried about Trumpian rule because, they say, the MAGA crowd tried to overturn the 2020 election and failed miserably thanks to the courts. What if Trump and his supporters refuse to abide by court decisions? How does it get implemented? What restrains him? Trump is already working overtime to undermine confidence in our judicial system. He constantly derides the judges, prosecutors and juries that try to hold him accountable. He is systematically trying to delegitimize the rule of law. In the end, court decisions only have meaning if law abiding, moral citizens abide by them. Trump and his supporters are neither law abiding nor moral. Already we have an example in our history when both President Andrew Jackson and the state of Georgia ignored a Supreme Court decision in 1832 (Worcester v Georgia). Referring to the Chief Justice, President Jackson is said to have stated, “John Marshall has made his decision, now let him enforce it.” The president then went ahead and did exactly what he wanted to do. Jackson is one of Trump’s role models.

Finally, I have no doubt that Trump and his supporters will try to disrupt and suppress the vote in 2024 by any means at their disposal. As Trump continues to dehumanize those that oppose him, it becomes more likely that political violence will spread in our country. It happened in 2020, how can we be so sanguine as to believe it will not happen again, even if we are better prepared?

In that regard, Trump and his acolytes are already telling us about the draconian measures they will put in place if he wins. What we should think about is the fact that they are not telling us what they plan to do if he loses.

The Intractable Middle East

Posted: November 6, 2023 | Author: Tom | Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: Hamas, Hezbollah, Israel, Palestine, Two State Solution, War Aims | 1 Comment

It is over four weeks since the horrific Hamas terrorist attack in Israel that left approximately 1400 people brutally murdered and about 240 taken hostage. Since then, the Israeli military has relentlessly bombed the Gaza strip and sent tanks and troops into that bit of land sandwiched between Israel, Egypt and the Mediterranean Sea. The Health Ministry in Gaza reports that over 10,000 Palestinians, including over 4,000 children have been killed in the bombings, a figure that cannot be independently verified as Hamas controls the ministry. Regardless, an awful lot of people are dying in Gaza.

It is clear that this is a nasty situation for lots of people. What is not clear is how it will all end. Without a doubt, Israel has the absolute right to eliminate the existential threat posed by Hamas to the very existence of a Jewish state. Hamas claims that they will not stop until Israel is eliminated from the face of the Earth and all Jews are “exterminated.” No country should support such a goal in any way shape or form. Likewise, the government of Israel states that they will not stop until they have done the exact same thing to Hamas. Given that both war aims are unrealistic, and that Israel is clearly the superior military entity and suffered an unforgiveable attack, what is their desired end state after all is said and done? What are Israel’s practical war aims? Furthermore, how does Israel attain its war aims without killing thousands of innocent Palestinians? The one thing to know about the Middle East, when behind closed doors, is that the Israelis do not care about the Palestinians, Hamas does not care about the Palestinians and the vast majority of Arab countries do not care about the Palestinians — they are merely pawns to achieve other national aims. To put it in different terms, if there was a caste system in the Middle East, Palestinians would be the untouchables.

Without having access to the Israeli war plans, there is no way of knowing what their specific goals are, but it is possible to surmise their intentions. In any operational or strategic military undertaking, the key element is to clearly define the mission — why do what you are doing? What are you trying to achieve? The Israeli’s stated goal is to kill every Hamas terrorist. But why? That is not an end state. It is one of their means to achieve it. Their real goal is to secure their own national security. To achieve that they want to eliminate Hamas as an effective organization and to stabilize Gaza by installing a governing entity that can stand up to the terrorists while promoting economic and social progress. The only way that Israel can feel that the threat from Gaza is eliminated is when they can peacefully co-exist. Is this a unicorns and rainbows solution? Possibly. But it doesn’t change the reality that the citizens of Israel can never truly feel safe until there is peaceful coexistence. That is the essence of long-standing U.S. and international policy striving for a two-state solution — a Palestinian state that is recognized and treated as an autonomous nation alongside a partner in Israel.

There is real danger in the situation as it exists today. Several factors are at play. First, as we all see in the daily headlines, the Israelis are pursuing Hamas by any means necessary. While they have every right to fully and forcefully fight the terrorists, how a nation does so is as important. It is not clear whether the Israeli government is taking the long view or merely the most expedient. That there will be “collateral damage” (a horrible term for civilian casualties) in a military operation in densely populated areas is perhaps unavoidable. However, whole scale bombing of cities where innocent civilians are trapped undermines Israel’s standing and support in the international community. The counter argument is that Hamas built hundreds of miles of tunnels under the cities using hospitals, schools and people’s homes to hide their existence and to try to provide a shield. To eliminate the terrorists in those tunnels in a slow, drawn out, yard by yard fight under the ground would likely result in unacceptable Israeli losses. However, there are other ways to seal off those tunnels using other means or by sending unmanned platforms in to kill the terrorists. Significant intelligence assets exist to pinpoint key areas to target rather than the elimination of all possible tunnel systems by using “bunker busters” that destroy everything in their blast radius. Other classified procedures are possible as well. The point is that indiscriminate bombing, resulting in ten thousand civilian casualties, does not really meet Israeli war aims. If their security hinges on peaceful coexistence, then radicalizing new generations of Palestinians which end up joining the terrorists does not help them achieve it.

Further expansion of the conflict is another real danger. Iranian surrogates are stirring up trouble in southern Lebanon where Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah claims to have 100,000 well armed fighters at his disposal, far more than Hamas. (Independent analysts say it is more likely 20,000 to 50,000 fighters, still far more than in Gaza.) Other terrorist groups have attacked U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria. The West Bank is a powder keg ready to explode as the expansion of Israeli settlements under the policies of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu continue to exacerbate tensions. Israel can ill afford to fight a simultaneous three front war. The U.S. deployed significant air and naval forces to the region to reinforce our commitment to Israel’s national security and to protect our own interests in the region by deterring other bad actors from taking advantage of the situation.

The solution is a long way off. It seems that Israel is totally focused on the short term goal of killing terrorists. U.S. shuttle diplomacy by President Joe Biden and Secretary of State Antony Blinken is focused on containing the situation geographically, procuring the release of over 200 hostages, getting humanitarian aid into Gaza, and constructing the outlines of a long term political, diplomatic and economic solution. It is a difficult job, especially when our own domestic political games in the House of Representatives are hindering our ability to provide aid to Israel. Meanwhile, the war in Ukraine is relegated to the back pages of the newspapers while MAGA Republicans want to stop providing them aid in their fight to survive Russian annihilation. It’s a tough world.

The most likely long term solution is for the Palestinian Authority (PA), the nominal government of the West Bank, to assert control over Gaza. The PA will not be able to do so on its own. A combined Arab military mission into Gaza under the auspices of the United Nations seems to be the best solution to stabilize conditions for a gradual reconstitution of the Gaza strip. In the short term, it is unlikely that the Arab world would agree to participate (see paragraph two above). Under further international pressure and without any other solution in sight, it is possible.

Israel is going to do what it feels it must. Despite outside perceptions, the Israelis listen to the U.S. but in the end they do what they want to do, regardless. Given their history, it is understandable, even if sometimes it hurts them in the long run. To conflate Israeli actions in Gaza as being a reaction to, or an attempt to confound the desire for an independent Palestinian state is wrong. Israel was brutally attacked by evil terrorists. They are responding. End of that discussion. Open to debate is how they are responding and whether the two-state solution could lead to a more stable region where people of different religions live in peace.

The anti-Semitic attacks, allegedly in support of the Palestinians, breaking out across the U.S. and elsewhere are dangerous and shameful. It does not help the Palestinian cause. When one only gets information from Instagram and X, it is impossible to understand the complexities of this situation. Emotions overwhelm reason and logic. It does not help the Palestinians or anyone else. It does give great joy to the Chinese and Russian troll farms that want to destroy our country from within.

Only long term diplomatic, political and economic policies are going to resolve this crisis. In the short term, lots of people are going to die or suffer. Israel must defend itself. International organizations need to continue to work to get aid to innocent Palestinians. Neither one is easy.

Meet The Speaker Of The House

Posted: October 30, 2023 | Author: Tom | Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: Dominion Voting Corp, Election Deniers, MAGA Republicans, Speaker of the House Elections, The Bible | 1 Comment

“The swamp is on the run, MAGA is ascendant, and if you don’t think that moving from Kevin McCarthy to MAGA Mike Johnson shows the ascendance of this movement, and where the power of the Republican Party truly lies, then you’re not paying attention.” — Congressman Matt Gaetz (MAGA-FL) talking about the new Speaker of the House Mike Johnson (MAGA-LA).

Last week House Republicans ended three weeks of bitter infighting, recriminations, and ignoring the people’s work by electing a new Speaker of the House. The unanimous Republican vote for Congressman Mike Johnson of Louisiana proved that the rabble rouser Gaetz was accurate in his assessment. The House Republican Party can only be considered a wholly owned subsidiary of Trump, Inc. and a solid MAGA institution. There are no moderates left on the Republican side of the House given that the support for “MAGA Mike” was without exception.

Note that Trump thoroughly controls the House through his MAGA acolytes. His autocratic control can be discerned from one telling event. Speaker Johnson was the Republicans’ fourth choice after they deposed former Speaker Kevin McCarthy — thrown out because he dared to pass bi-partisan legislation to keep the government functioning under a Continuing Resolution (CR). Their third choice was Congressman Tom Emmer of Minnesota. He had the votes of most of the caucus, but one social media post by an ex-president doomed his chances and his support evaporated before a formal vote on his Speakership. In other words, Trump vetoed Mr. Emmer from becoming Speaker. Trump supported Mr. Johnson and he became Speaker. Pretty simple. One person out of the government controls what happens with the party holding the majority in the House. It took them three weeks to figure out who would be the biggest MAGA champion, but they found their guy.

It appears that Speaker Johnson is a nice, polite, well-dressed individual with a pleasant smile. Do not let the packaging influence your opinion of what is inside. Here are a few examples.

He is labeled an “election denier” but it goes far deeper than that. Former Representative Liz Cheney (R-WY) called him “the most important architect of the Electoral College objections.” He organized over 100 House Republicans to sign an amicus brief to the Supreme Court supporting an effort by the Texas Attorney General to throw out the results of the presidential vote in four swing states. The Supreme Court turned it down. In gathering support for that effort, Mr. Johnson sent an email to all Republicans in Congress explicitly saying that Trump asked him to recruit all of the Republicans to join the brief to the Supreme Court and that he would report those that sign on as Trump “will be anxiously awaiting the final list to review.” A not so subtle threat. When that didn’t work, he helped to organize the sedition caucus of Republicans that voted on 6 January 2021 to decertify the results of the election — after the capitol was attacked. He was an ardent advocate of the Dominion voting machine scam claiming that the machines came from “Hugo Chavez’s Venezuela.” The very allegations that cost Fox News three-quarters of a billion dollars and for which increasing numbers of scammers are pleading guilty in court agreeing that they are all lied when they claimed that there was massive voting fraud.

This does not bode well for certifying the 2024 election results in the House.

One would think that this alone would disqualify anyone from becoming the second in line to the presidency — behind a president he apparently does not think is legitimate. When asked about this in recent interviews, he refused to answer.

But wait! There’s more!

For example, he is widely recognized as a right wing, white Christian nationalist, although he demurs when asked if that his world view. As he stated in a recent interview on Fox News, “I am a Bible believing Christian, …go pick up a Bible off your shelf and read it. That’s my world view.” Such a devotion to his religion is in itself not a problem. The problem is that he has worked most of his adult life to push his religious principles ahead of, and over-riding those of other religions or those that have no religious belief at all. His states is that the U.S. was founded on Christian principles and that the Constitution is really a Christian document, but a Christianity that he defines. To him, our constitutional republic was established by the Founding Fathers because “they followed the Biblical definition of what a civil society is supposed to look like.” He is vigorously opposed to same-sex marriage, LGBTQ rights and the influx of immigrants (not just border control but who is allowed to enter the U.S.).

After the mass shooting in Lewiston Maine he said in response to a question about stricter gun laws that “The end of the day, it’s, the problem is the human heart. Its not guns. Its not weapons. At the end of the day, we have to protect the right of the citizens to protect themselves, and that’s the Second Amendment.” A few years ago, in his speeches (some call them sermons) he blamed school gun violence on various social issues including abortion, divorce and the teaching of evolution.

There is more, but it is clear that he is far to the right and in perfect alignment with MAGA principles. As to governing, we will see. He has little experience in any government leadership position having never even chaired a full committee within the House of Representatives. The coming months are going to be difficult for our country as we still need to fund the government, decide on aid to Israel and Ukraine and deal with the many issues that continue to languish in the House for lack of action because the MAGA agenda is Hunter Biden’s laptop and not much else.

Some might argue that having anyone as Speaker is better than having no Speaker at all. Well, with “MAGA Mike” we may have just gotten exactly what we asked for.

Dysfunction Or Destruction?

Posted: October 23, 2023 | Author: Tom | Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: 2024 Election, Dysfunction, MAGA, Political Violence, Speaker of the House Elections | Leave a comment

Tomorrow, it will be three weeks since the United States of America had an actual Speaker of the House of Representatives. On 3 October, Republican Representative Kevin McCarthy (CA) was voted out of his position as the Speaker due to a revolt of the hard right MAGA Republicans. They were enraged that he worked to pass a bipartisan continuing resolution (CR) to keep the government operating until 17 November of this year. For those zealots, doing anything with the support of Democrats is unacceptable. In this case, it was, to them, an outrageous breach of faith that Mr. McCarthy worked to allow the government to continue to operate without their hard right policies in place. Since then, the Republicans (the majority party in the House is always responsible for choosing the Speaker) have floated a number of options for choosing a new Speaker, including giving the current Speaker Pro Tempore Representative Patrick McHenry (R-NC) more power to enact some basic legislation. (Under the current rules, the Speaker Pro Tempore can only preside over the election of a permanent Speaker.) Complicated, it is. The only good thing that has happened so far is that Representative Jim Jordan (MAGA-OH) failed three times in his attempt to bully, intimidate, and threaten his way into the Speakership.

Democrats have consistently and unanimously voted for Representative Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY). Note that he gets more votes than any Republican so far (it takes a majority of 50% plus one to be elected). Mr. Jeffries continually floats bipartisan proposals to solve the crisis, but Republicans refuse to allow Democrats to participate (see above and the impact on Mr. McCarthy when trying to use bipartisanship).

As I write, nine Representatives have thrown their hats into the ring to attempt to convince their colleagues that they should take the gavel. I will note that only two of those running voted to certify the election of President Biden in 2020. It would seem that acknowledging the results of a free and fair election would be a prerequisite for the job which is second in the line of succession to the presidency, but it is not in the current state of the party formerly known as the Republican Party. This does not bode well for certifying the 2024 election results should their preferred candidate lose.

As the old saying goes, “pay backs are hell!” This past week numerous Republicans and their families were the recipients of death threats, vile insults, intimidating emails and other actions that are part and parcel of the MAGA playbook against their perceived “enemies” (fellow Americans) because they would not support Mr. Jordan as Speaker. They were aghast at what they heard and appalled that it happened. Hmmm. I don’t recall any of them standing up and expressing their outrage when political violence was threatened by an ex-president and his MAGA acolytes against those in the other party, the Department of Justice, FBI, or judiciary, to name but a few of their targets.

The main question I now have is whether the Republican Party’s inability to preform the most rudimentary of parliamentary duties is a result of their dysfunction or is it a deliberate attempt at destruction? There are a solid block of the hard right in the caucus that are perfectly happy to knee cap the democratic process and thereby prevent the most basic of government functions to take place. If past performance is indicative of future results, then I opine that although not planned, the current state of affairs fits perfectly into their scheme to burn it all down and start over under autocratic rule with a certain ex-president in charge.

The world is on fire with serious conflicts in Europe and the Middle East that each have the potential to blow up into wide-spread wars impacting our own national security. The government shuts down because of the lack of spending authority in about four weeks. All funding for the military, foreign aid, government functions, etc. originates in the House of Representatives, which can take up no legislation without a Speaker. Layer on top of that Republicans in the Senate holding up promotions for over 300 senior military officers and the Ambassadors to Israel and Egypt, as well as other ambassadors, in the midst of an explosive crisis.

Such actions have serious domestic and international consequences. The lack of the House to get itself in order is not only a national embarrassment, it sends exactly the wrong signal to our adversaries and undermines our claims that democracy is the best form of government on the planet. Putin, Xi, Kim and others are loving it.

Meanwhile, an ex-president is openly admiring our adversaries, mocking our own men and women in uniform and generally running amok as he pursues his personal wealth and power.

Even the most casual observer of our domestic political turmoil would recognize that the Democrats are interested in, and capable of, governing even if one may disagree with particular policies. That same observer would also recognize that as a party, Republicans either have no interest in, or ability to, govern. Governing requires positive actions. The MAGA crowd, and those Republicans that refuse to stand up to them, have only negative actions to sustain them. They are against a lot, but there is little to nothing that they are doing to move the country forward.

At the risk of sounding like a doomsayer, I do not see things getting any better leading up to and beyond the 2024 election. Political violence and dysfunction are part of the MAGA playbook. There will be serious attempts to disrupt the elections and we already know that the MAGA followers will not accept the results of any election that they do not win. We had one failure of imagination in that no one expected an attempted coup in our country. It happened. Given the current state of affairs fomented by one man and his followers in and out of Congress, I have little expectation that things will improve over the coming year. Dysfunction or destruction? It does not matter. The results are the same.

Terror In The Middle East

Posted: October 13, 2023 | Author: Tom | Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: Gaza, Hamas, Israel, Middle East War, Palestinians, Terrorists | 1 Comment

The horrifying Hamas terrorist attack from the Gaza strip into Israel last Saturday continues to escalate. The situation is complicated and will get more so, but make no mistake, Hamas is a terrorist organization with one goal and one goal only — destroy Israel by killing Jews. The attack is considered the largest loss of Jewish life in one day since the Holocaust. It’s bad. Really bad. Hamas is evil on earth and no one should be confused about their goal or mix their murderous, immoral and depraved actions with any aspirations that Palestinians may have for autonomy and a free state. Hamas cares nothing about their fellow Palestinians and, in fact, are effectively using their friends and families as human shields along with the hostages kidnapped in Israel and taken back to Gaza.

According to the U.S. National Counterterrorism Center, Hamas was created in 1987 at the beginning of the first Palestinian Intifada (an uprising against Israel). It has roots in the Muslim Brotherhood and is concentrated in Gaza, although elements of the organization exist in the West Bank and other areas. In conjunction with the terrorist arm of Hamas, there is also political leadership that won elections in Gaza in 2006 giving them complete control of the population, and rejecting the government and agreements formed by the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO), Fatah, and the Palestinian Authority (PA) that nominally controls the Palestinian territories. Starting in the 1990s, Hamas periodically fired rockets into Israel and conducted small scale terrorist attacks in Israel. Over this time period, Israel periodically bombed Gaza in retaliation for the rocket and terror attacks and in 2005 conducted a large scale ground attack into Gaza to cripple the infrastructure and leadership of Hamas. There are slightly over two million Palestinians living in Gaza which covers about the same area in size as Philadelphia. It is considered the most densely populated territory on earth.

The attack into Israel on 7 October apparently took the Israelis completely by surprise. In military attacks, it is often possible to achieve tactical surprise (think an Army company getting ambushed). Occasionally, a military force may achieve operational surprise (think the Battle of the Bulge in World War II). It is nearly impossible to achieve a strategic surprise as occurred nearly a week ago. Ironically, in military case studies, the most discussed strategic surprise was the 1973 Yom Kippur War where Egypt and Syria completely surprised the Israelis, catching many of their units unprepared. Israel prevailed, but only after a bitter and hotly contested fight. It is too early for in-depth analysis at this point, and the focus should be on destroying Hamas, but it appears that there are similarities between 1973 and 2023. In the former case, Israeli politicians, intelligence analysts and the military considered the region to be relatively stable and that their enemies were not capable of fighting Israel’s superior military. In particular, Israel believed that air superiority was necessary for any successful ground attack and Israel ruled the skies. What they did not account for were Arab mobile air defense systems that provided a secure umbrella over their ground forces protecting them from Israeli air attacks. In 2023, Israeli intelligence analysts and politicians assessed that Hamas was a nuisance with their periodic rocket attacks, but not an imminent threat to national security. Israeli policies were geared towards normalizing the situation in Gaza through economic efforts (aid and allowing Gazans to work in Israel) and to achieve political stability by working with Arab countries to develop their de facto government and to contain Hamas. They were wrong. Hamas is not a “normal” organization and has no interest in acting in a rational manner. Their only mission is to destroy Israel and kill Jews. Exacerbating the slow military response in Israel is the fact that many troops normally stationed on the Gaza border were moved to the West Bank to protect Israeli settlements there and to northern Israel to deter Hezbollah from attacking from Lebanon. The Israeli forces on the border were overwhelmed by the coordinated, simultaneous and substantial influx of terrorists, something that the Israelis (and indeed much of the world) thought impossible for them to do.

Israel will prevail. Unfortunately, it is going to be ugly and there will be large scale loss of life and many of the casualties are and will be civilians.

There is one nagging thought that bothers me. Hamas had to know that the Israelis would respond with a large, overwhelming military response including a ground invasion. Israeli leaders are very clear that their mission now is to kill every member of Hamas. They intend to destroy Hamas so that they are incapable of ever attacking Israel again. This is a clear mission, but perhaps unattainable. My concern is that if Hamas anticipated this response, do they have some surprise in store for the Israeli forces entering Gaza? In and of itself, rooting out Hamas in Gaza, given that Hamas has prepared for this moment for years, will entail bloody, difficult building to building fighting with Hamas on their home turf knowing the lay of the land far better than the Israelis. That will be very difficult, even with the determination, courage and resolve that Israeli forces have in their DNA and through superior training. But is Hamas drawing them into a trap? Having once surprised the world, do they have one last trick up their sleeve? We will find out in the coming hours or days as the Israeli invasion is imminent.

Wars are easy to start and hard to end. A fact in military planning is that the loser decides when the war is over. If the enemy does not give up, if they keep fighting, however feeble their resistance may be, the conflict is not over. The Israelis will have to make it so painful that Hamas gives up. Their political and military leadership declared that they would only accept unconditional surrender, a very rare and difficult resolution to conflict. Since Hamas true believers are willing to die for their cause, even in suicide attacks, they are unlikely to quit, even if they have little hope of succeeding.

The next great humanitarian crisis is about to explode. There is no place for the civilians, many of whom do not support Hamas, to go in Gaza. The territory is bounded by Israel, the Mediterranean Sea and Egypt. Israel will not allow Gazans into Israel (nor should they). To date, Egypt is unwilling to allow refugees into their country — probably because they are afraid that they will never leave and that they would destabilize Egypt. They simply do not have the ability on their own to feed, shelter and protect a projected one to one and a half million refugees, especially as half of the population in Gaza is under 18.

Among other military aid and intelligence assistance the U.S. deployed the USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier along with the guided missile destroyers and cruisers in the strike group. Their purpose is to deter other bad actors from becoming involved in the war. The aircraft and cruise missiles in the strike group are a formidable capability that should make other groups and nations hesitate to aid Hamas or to create their own mischief. U.S. involvement in the current fighting will be avoided (not to mention that Israel does not want it), with the possible exception of special operations forces acting to rescue American hostages taken by Hamas and hidden in Gaza.

At any one time there are thousands of U.S. citizens in Israel on business, touring the holy land, or living in the country. Additionally, there are thousands of dual Israeli-US citizens living in Israel. The State Department is organizing evacuation flights out of the country but inevitably some U.S. citizens will be caught in the fighting (as some already have, at least 27 have been killed and 14 are missing) which will give U.S. military and diplomatic planners cause for concern. The carrier strike group is not configured to evacuate large numbers of civilians. With skill and a little luck, the evacuation flights will get everyone out that wants to go. Not all will want to. For the roughly 600 Americans believed to be working or living in Gaza, for now, they are on their own. They have no way out.

Expect this war to be a long drawn out conflict with large numbers of casualties. Do not underestimate the cruelty and depravity of Hamas. There will be despicable developments surrounding the hostages. Likewise, do not underestimate the determination of Israel to exterminate Hamas. Unfortunately, that will also bring disturbing stories of innocent civilians in Gaza killed and injured. Not because the Israeli forces are targeting them, but because there is nowhere for the civilians to go to be safe and Hamas is not in the least concerned about their well being.

Hamas must be destroyed. It is not going to be easy.

It’s That Time Of Year Again

Posted: September 16, 2023 | Author: Tom | Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: Appropriations Committee, Congress, Continuing Resolution, Debt Ceiling, Freedom Caucus, Government Funding, United States Constitution | 1 Comment

You know it is Fall when the extreme members of the House of Representatives threaten to shut down the government again by failing to do their job and appropriate and authorize the funds needed to keep our country going. Same old tune, but this time with a few different lyrics.

Earlier this year, Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy (MAGA-CA) reached an agreement with President Joe Biden to raise the debt limit, thus ensuring that the United States would not default on its debts in accordance with the Constitution and that we would keep the U.S. and world economy working. As part of that deal, the two men reached an agreement for the ceiling on the amount of spending that would be authorized for the coming fiscal year, which begins on 1 October. Everyone breathed a sigh of relief and was ready to move on to the actual work of the Congress, which is funding the government. Well, almost everyone was ready to move on. All were ready to get on with business except for the MAGA Republicans of the Freedom Caucus. They claim that Speaker McCarthy was duped by the president into agreeing to spending limits higher than they wanted and that they had insisted on having as a condition for making Mr. McCarthy Speaker of the House. They started throwing a conniption fit early this summer and continued to disrupt “regular order” in the House upon returning to Washington this week.

Before going into the details about the House, let us first acknowledge that, so far, the Senate is doing their job. Under the leadership of Senator Patty Murray (D-WA) as chair, and Senator Susan Collins (R-ME) as vice-chair, the Appropriations Committee has all twelve of the necessary bills to fund the federal government ready to go for a full Senate vote. All are within the guidelines of the agreement with the president, with a few minor changes such as increasing the defense budget, and all have bipartisan support and will garner roughly two-thirds of the Senate voting in favor. There are no “poison pill” provisions included in it (amendments generally having to do with culture war issues to assuage some politician’s donors but that could keep the bill from passing). Effective leadership, cooperation, compromise and negotiation. What a concept!

Contrast that with the House where Speaker McCarthy, probably the weakest Speaker in my lifetime, cannot get his caucus to agree to the time of day. He has had to postpone several key votes because he does not have enough votes in his own party to pass them. Since most of the bills do include amendments that have draconian provisions that have nothing to do with spending, Democrats will not vote for them either. As the deadline approaches, the Speaker is contemplating a continuing resolution (CR) to temporarily keep the government functioning while negotiations continue. This means keeping spending levels at their current rate until new budgets are approved, as has often been the case over the last two decades. It is a very inefficient way to run things and serves mostly to keep the drama at a fever pitch while the various parties vie with each other to see who chickens out first and gives up on all or some of their demands. The proposed CR is a “clean” bill which means it only pertains to spending and does not include extraneous amendments that probably would not pass on their own, but get included as the best chance to see them pass.

Right now, the Freedom Caucus (made up of most of the members of the Sedition Caucus that voted to overturn the 2020 presidential election results) is refusing to vote for such a CR as a temporary solution. Many of them publicly and dare I say, joyously, anticipate the government having to shut down. This puts the Speaker in a real bind.

The House could pass a clean CR with moderate Republicans (there aren’t that many left) and Democrats voting for it. But the hard line right wingers in the House declared that if the Speaker did that, they would put forth a motion to “vacate” the Speaker’s chair. In other words, they would vote to “fire” Mr. McCarthy as the Speaker. (A key question relevant to their threat is who would take his place that could get enough votes to win? It took Mr. McCarthy 15 ballots over multiple days to secure the speakership.) Depending on the day, Mr. McCarthy only has a four or five person majority to pass anything on purely party lines. As MAGA loud mouth Representative Matt Gaetz (MAGA-FL) on Tuesday put it, “Continuing Resolution, motion to vacate.” Representative Bob Good (MAGA-VA) said, “We should not fear a government shutdown. Most of the American people won’t even miss it if the government is shut down temporarily.” The last shutdown was in 2018-2019 and lasted five weeks. The dispute then was funding the border wall that Trump (aka Inmate PO1135809) wanted. (Somehow, Mexico was not involved.)

The hard right wingers always claim that they want to save the taxpayers money when they shut down the government. In fact, the country loses money. According to the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office estimates, the last shutdown cost the economy 11 billion dollars over the first two quarters, of which three billion dollars was never recovered. The secondary and tertiary impacts of such shutdowns impact the entire economy, not just the government.

The situation is complicated by Mr. McCarthy’s Tuesday announcement of an impeachment inquiry into President Biden. This action is simply and purely a political gambit. Other Republicans have publicly expressed their view that there are no actions by the president that may be characterized as “high crimes and misdemeanors” as delineated in the Constitution Article II, Section 4. There are also significant legal questions as to whether there can be an inquiry without a vote authorizing it by the full membership of the House.

There are two political factors relevant to the inquiry. Primarily, Mr. McCarthy hoped to throw the Freedom Caucus a bone to chew on so that he could distract them while trying to finesse a solution for avoiding a government shutdown. It did not work. The Freedom Caucus has been focused on impeaching President Biden since the day he took office. In their view, the Speaker is late to the party and is only doing what they thought would happen earlier this year.

The second political reason is an attempt by the Freedom Caucus and other supporters of the ex-president and indicted criminal currently out on bail to mitigate the legal dilemmas he faces as well as his two impeachments. Trump himself was working hard to push his fellow MAGA Republicans to open impeachment proceedings. They want to create an atmosphere where they can demonstrate that all politicians are corrupt, not just Trump and thereby damage Mr. Biden while helping Trump in the run-up to the 2024 presidential election. Their actions are one more attempt at blowing up the rule of law and seeking retribution for holding Trump accountable.

Speaker McCarthy knows that he cannot deliver on all of the demands made by the Freedom Caucus. His problem is complicated by the fact that the Freedom Caucus itself is not unified in expressing what will satisfy them. Every time Mr. McCarthy gives into one demand, the goal posts move as additional demands are made. Here are examples of their key demands: that the final budget be considerably below the agreement between Mr. McCarthy and Mr. Biden and no more than pre-pandemic levels; defunding or significantly cutting funds for the “weaponized” Department of Justice (DOJ) and FBI; defunding the federal prosecutors that are pursuing cases against the indicted ex-president (end “political witch hunts”) ; funding to renew building the wall on the southern border; significant changes to immigration laws including eliminating or restricting legal asylum; cutting funds for Ukraine in its war with Russia (“no blank checks”); eliminating “woke” policies in the Department of Defense (DOD); cutting down or eliminating funds for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS); and on and on. None of these demands will be met in the Senate or signed into law by the president.

Mr. McCarthy will feel mounting pressure as the Senate completes its work and the president announces he would sign their appropriations bills into law. He will find himself in the politically uncomfortable position of being the sole obstacle to the normal functioning of the government and for the resulting shutdown. History shows that such shutdowns go badly for the party causing the shutdown when voters go to the polls. Mr. McCarthy would be well advised to look at what happened to his Republican predecessors. The Freedom Caucus is the successor to the Tea Party. The Tea Party caused similar headaches for Speaker John Boehner (who resigned) and Speaker Paul Ryan (who retired at the end of his term). The Freedom Caucus makes the old Tea Party look like a bunch of pushovers. The current iteration is out for revenge and feels like they are on a mission from which they will not be deterred. They want to burn it all down and bring in their cult leader from his beach club to take over.

The context and atmosphere today is dangerous. The next one to three months will be a real political roller coaster. I have no idea as to how it will unfold or be resolved.

We will get there, but it is going to be ugly.

MAGA Republicans Are Anti-Military

Posted: September 5, 2023 | Author: Tom | Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: Dobbs v Jackson, Joint Chiefs of Staff, National Security, Senator Tuberville, U.S. Military | 1 Comment

Since February of this year, Senator Tommy Tuberville (MAGA-Ala) has been holding up the confirmation process in the Senate for over 300 senior military officers. Originally, he claimed his “hold” on the nominations would last until the Department of Defense (DOD) changes its policy on women’s reproductive health care. Specifically, in the wake of the Supreme Court’s Dobbs v Jackson Women’s Health Organization that pushed laws concerning abortion to the states, he objects to the military paying for women to leave states where abortion is illegal or restricted to go to states where it is legal. Lately, he expanded his argument for freezing military promotions by saying that the military is “top heavy” and has too many generals and admirals.

His position may be a legitimate policy discussion to have, but the Senator from Alabama (or is he the third senator from Florida where he lives and his wife works?) does not want a policy discussion. He wants to single-handedly decide for himself what the military may or may not do. Both Republicans and Democrats have offered him a chance to bring an amendment to the floor to implement his desired changes. He refuses because he knows that his amendment will be defeated. There are Senate rules that can overcome his obstinate strangle-hold on our military, but they are laborious and time consuming requiring hours of work on the Senate floor for each nominee. A quick back of the envelope math problem shows that all other Senate work will be stalled for months while doing so. The Senator from Florida, oops, Alabama is also violating the spirit of cooperation and negotiation that gets things done in the Senate and is using the “hold” process in an unprecedented and harmful way. But, as we are finding, everything surrounding MAGA Republicans is “unprecedented” because they are there to break the system. In truth, this is one more example of their efforts to destroy our democracy and yet another anti-American stand.

The Senator has no personal military experience and is the same man that opined earlier this summer that white nationalists are not racists, they are “Americans.” In an answer to a question as to whether white nationalists should be allowed in the military, he said “Well, they call them that. I call them Americans.” He went on to say that “I look at a white nationalist as a Trump Republican.” Months later he finally conceded that perhaps white nationalists were possibly racist. This who he is. As a U.S. Senator, he may also need to take a civics class as after his election he proclaimed, “Our government wasn’t set up for one group to have all three branches of government — wasn’t set up that way. You know, the House, the Senate, and the executive.”

In todays Washington Post the secretaries of the Army, Navy and Air Force wrote a piece about the tremendous harm Senator Tuberville is causing to the military organization, the officers, their families and those who they would lead in dangerous situations. They explain why the senator is wrong on the facts, the damage being done, and that he “is putting national security at risk.”

Among the officers that have been nominated but not confirmed are the Chief of Naval Operations, Commandant of the Marine Corps and the Chief of Staff of the Army, three of the members of the Joint Chiefs of Staff responsible for advising our civilian leaders on areas of great responsibility. Their predecessors all were required to retire under U.S. law, so the positions are technically empty. Other officers are filling those spots on an “acting” basis, while still doing their primary jobs. More importantly, under the law, only Senate confirmed officers in those positions can carry out most of the duties of the offices. At the end of this month, General Mark Milley will, in accordance with the law, retire, thus leaving the position of Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff empty. At least twenty-five two and three star officers have had their retirement put on hold until the end of the year or until the hold is released. This impacts their future livelihoods as many had civilian jobs ready to go after their retirement, bought homes in the new locations and endured significant disruption to their spouses and children as they have their own jobs and schools to figure out while in limbo.

Other top positions held hostage to assuage one man’s ego include the Commander, Pacific Air Forces, Commander, Northern Command, Commanding General Marine Forces Japan, Commander Indo-Pacific Command, and Commander U.S. Pacific Fleet. All are critical to our nation’s security and to counter Chinese mischief in the Far East and to keep our country protected.

To defer to Senator Tuberville’s desires is to seriously impact the readiness of our nation’s fighting forces by lowering morale, imperiling individuals’ health and undermining recruitment and retention. Not all military bases are able to handle all health issues. It is common practice to move personnel to receive proper healthcare as needed. Service members cannot choose where they are stationed or live. In this particular case, DOD complies with the Hyde Amendment which forbids the use of federal funds for abortions except to save a woman’s life or in the case of rape or incest. The DOD policy as it is to pay for transportation and to allow time off with pay. To the Senator, this is not acceptable.

There are further impacts on unit morale, and in retention among the ranks. For example, the current officers at the Colonel, Lt. Colonel, Captain or Commander levels, the battle hardened core of our day-to-day leadership will look at the way a politician is willing to use them as pawns in his political games. There will surely be a calculus in their minds to take their vast leadership and technical experience to the civilian sector if they feel they will be mistreated in uniform. The next generation of generals and admirals taking up leadership positions in the next decade may not be there as they vote with their feet to leave.

Senator Tuberville claims that the DOD leadership and the Biden Administration refuse to compromise with him. What he really means is that they will not give in to him, and he seems quite happy about that. I suppose he enjoys the attention. Given the total context of his six month and counting hold, what it really means is that he could care less about the health, readiness, leadership or strength of our American fighting forces. Meanwhile our adversaries in Russia, China and North Korea are loving it.

United States of America v. Donald J. Trump

Posted: August 2, 2023 | Author: Tom | Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: 2020 Election, 2020 Insurrection, Constitution, Electoral College, Special Counsel, Trump Indictment | Leave a comment

For the third time this year, the 45th ex-president was indicted yesterday. This time it is on four counts relating to his attempt to overturn the 2020 election and keep himself in power. Yesterday was an historic, if ultimately sad, day for America. For over 240 years, nothing like this happened. The hallmark of our democracy was the peaceful transfer of power following the certified results of elections. The ex-president (aka “the Defendant”) broke that tradition through a multi-pronged, coordinated attempt to overturn a free and fair election in order to retain power for himself. He seriously degraded wide-spread trust in our system and continues to do so today as he whines about “election interference” and a “weaponized” Department of Justice (DOJ). He may be the biggest threat to our democracy in our history, certainly since the Civil War. It is not a threat from abroad. The threat is coming from inside the house.

I recommend that you read the indictment for yourself. (Find an annotated version here.) It is an easy read — what is known as a “speaking indictment” — that spells out in plain language the key elements of the four charges brought against him. The longest part of the document lays out the case of how, and why, the Defendant and his six un-indicted co-conspirators, tried to empanel fake electors in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, New Mexico, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin to support the ex-president in seeking a win in the Electoral College by replacing the legitimate electors voting for Mr. Biden. Failing that, they hoped to create enough confusion that the decisions as to who gets the electors’ votes would be sent back to the individual states or sent to the House of Representatives where the Defendant would be declared president. It was a far-reaching conspiracy.

A necessary element of the plan was to bring Vice President Mike Pence into the scheme in order to get the slates of fake electors into the certification proceedings. As we know, Mr. Pence did not give in to the ex-president’s demands, but the indictment yesterday details the tremendous pressure brought against the Vice President to get him to cave to their demands. According to the document, the attempts to overturn the election results continued after the Capitol building was cleared and the House and Senate had reconvened. While Jack Smith, the Special Counsel overseeing the investigation, did not explicitly implicate the ex-president in directing the assault on the Capitol on 6 January, he makes it clear that sending the mob to intimidate Congress was part of the larger plot to undo the election.

As the criminal indictments mount against the ex-president — and a fourth indictment may be forthcoming in the days ahead in Georgia — it is worth contemplating the state of our nation had he succeeded. Our democracy would be wrecked. Probably, there would be some sort of martial law in place in many parts of the country. I do not say that frivolously as the indictment recounts how the plot participants were anticipating possible wide-spread protests should they succeed and opined that that was why there was an Insurrection Act as part of federal law. Without going too far into the specifics, the Insurrection Act allows the president to suspend Posse Comitatus which prohibits the Armed Forces from carrying out law enforcement activities. In other words, the president can deploy military and National Guard troops in the United States to suppress a declared insurrection or rebellion or to help in natural disasters. It has been used by presidents in the past, including to enforce desegregation laws in the 1950s and 1960s and to aid in preventing looting following hurricanes. Since the Defendant is running again for president, it is worth considering what kind of president he would be since he was pushing hard to overturn a free and fair election by all means at his disposal.

In his brief remarks last evening, Jack Smith noted that “the men and women of law enforcement who defended the U.S. Capitol on January 6 are heroes. They’re patriots, and they are the very best of us. They did not just defend a building or the people sheltering in it. They put their lives on the line to defend who we are as a country and as a people. They defended the very institutions and principles that define the United States.” In other words, the attack was not just a one off. It was not an unforeseen anomaly. It was part of a conspiracy to overthrow our democracy. The Defendant has shown no remorse over what he did. He will try again. He learned a lot in his first attempts to keep himself in power. He will succeed the second time if given the chance.

There will be much wailing and gnashing of teeth by those that support the ex-president. They will claim that he was duped by his lawyers. They will say it is a First Amendment right to question an election. They will claim all sorts of feeble defenses for the Defendant. We know who the ex-president is. We know his morals, we know his lack of respect, we know his disdain for the Constitution, we know that he is working hard to be a dictator. We have known that for a long time. I am totally disgusted by the elected Republican officials that continue to support an indicted criminal or that remain silent. It is clear that they have no respect for the rule of law, the Constitution or the American people. They only have a blind devotion to one man in order to preserve their own power. This is not the United States that I thought I knew. As a retired naval officer, I take my oath to support and defend the Constitution seriously. Many of my fellow service members have given their lives in defense of the Constitution. It means something to those of us that understand what we are saying and doing. Clearly, the Defendant and his supporters in elected office have no understanding of that oath. None.

This is a grave development that none of us should celebrate. This is a sobering situation that puts our Republic and democracy in danger. This is serious stuff. Our national character is at stake. Our standing on the world stage as a beacon of democracy to the rest of the world is at stake. Benjamin Franklin is often quoted saying that we have a Republic, “if you can keep it.” This will be a major test of our ability to do so.

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