The Autocrat’s Excuse

Posted: March 5, 2026 | Author: | Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

“Some of you may die, but it’s a sacrifice I am willing to make!” Lord Farquaad in the animated movie Shrek (2001).

“The lives of courageous American heroes may be lost, and we may have casualties. That often happens in war.” Trump on 28 February announcing the attack on Iran. He later that day held a million dollar a plate dinner at Mar-a-Lago.

As I write, we are in day six of Operation Epstein Files Epic Fury, the U.S. and Israeli attack on Iran. At this point, we still do not know why the war had to start right now and we still do not know the desired end state. As I explained in my post prior to the attack, without a stated end state, no one knows when we have “won”. So far, the Trump administration has posited multiple and often conflicting reasons for the attack and cannot seem to get their story straight. Key leaders such as the Secretary of Defense still talk in tactical terms rather than strategic. They cannot articulate what winning looks like and what the overall goal is for governing in Iran.

Before I go further let me say that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of Iran, and those that supported his regime while suppressing the aspirations of everyday Iranians was an evil man. I do not defend him or his regime in anyway. They have been bad actors for decades. I also commend our women and men in uniform whose professionalism and expertise has again demonstrated that the U.S. military is the best of the best. Our service members have preformed admirably and courageously.

Neither of those facts, however, justify this attack on Iran.

Why not Russia, China and/or North Korea? Let’s look at the rationale behind the war — and I will return to that momentarily but the Trump administration is calling it a “war.” Comparing the reasons given for attacking Iran and comparing them to our relations with the Bush era defined “Axis of Evil” does not explain why Iran or why now. Stalled negotiations. Check. Might be pursuing a nuclear weapon. Check. Promotes terrorism. Check. Has ballistic missiles that threaten the U.S. and our allies. Check. Everything that Trump and his cabinet say are our reasons for launching the war is the same, or poses an even greater threat from Russia, China, and North Korea. No one is arguing that we attack them. Indeed, Russia’s assault on Ukraine is ongoing after four years and this administration barely acknowledges the atrocities committed by Russians. Russia invaded a democratic Ukraine and all that Trump does is berate the Ukrainian leadership and pester them into giving in to Russian demands. Nothing is asked of Russia.

Maybe we struck Iran because we could and Trump likes to act the part of the tough guy Commander-in-Chief. Or maybe it is because Trump is beholden to Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel and to Mohammed bin Salman al Saud of Saudi Arabia. Netanyahu has been warning for thirty years that Iran was on the brink of obtaining a nuclear weapon “any day”. Maybe Trump believed him, because he certainly did not believe his own intelligence agencies that were telling Trump that there was no imminent threat of Iran developing a nuclear weapon and that they had no means of weaponizing one. It is known that Mohammed (aka MBS) was calling Trump repeatedly over the last month telling him that Iran needed to be taken care of. Let’s speculate a bit. Netanyahu knows how to play Trump like a fiddle and Trump dances. But that may not be enough. It may be just a coincidence but when Trump left office after his first term, Jared Kushner his son-in-law got a two billion dollar investment from the Saudis. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) in the past year bought a 500 million dollar stake in the Trump family crypto venture called World Liberty Financial. Qatar gave Trump — personally, not as president — a luxury Boeing 747 with an estimated worth of 400 million dollars. Oman is working with the Trump family to develop properties in their country. Saudi Arabia is also working with the Trump family on developing real estate such as Trump Tower Jedda and Trump Plaza Riyadh and a 63 billion dollar project in Diriyah. All of these Arab countries have competing interests opposed to Persian Iran. Could that be why we took out Iran? Just asking.

I am not even sure that Trump knows why he ordered the operation. In a press gaggle at the White House he stated that he had a feeling that Iran would attack first so he got the jump on them. He decided instinctively that he should go to war rather than listen to advisers (he doesn’t) or believe the intelligence presented to him (he ignores it). In a way this fits with Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s explanation of why now. It was convoluted as many of his statements are in trying to explain yet another poor decision. He claimed that the the Israelis were going to attack Iran anyway, and since the Iranians were going to respond across the region, then the U.S. had to strike first to stop Iran’s response to an Israeli attack. In other words, Israel can decide when the U.S. goes to war. Speaker of the House “Lil Mikey” Johnson gave the same explanation as did Rubio. Rubio later walked it back but it makes about as much sense as any other explanation the administration has offered.

One would hope that they have some strategic objective in mind as the war is beginning to spread out of the Middle East. A U.S. submarine sank an Iranian warship off the coast of Sri Lanka. Iran sent drones against a British base on Cyprus. The economic consequences are already being felt around the world. Where are we headed?

I am out of the prediction business, but here is what would not surprise me. One day, when it is clear that it is not going to be easy to clean up the mess he made in the Middle East, Trump will wake up and decide it’s over. Stop the fighting, go home and figure out the next country he wants to attack. (Cuba anyone? Earlier this week he raised the prospect of “a friendly take over” of Cuba.) Of course that will leave a huge vacuum in a volatile area of the world. It could leave behind the same conditions that led to the growth of ISIS and al-Qaeda in other areas of the region. It will also not rid us of Iranian meddling. They have a long history, a long memory and a willingness to retaliate on their own time and at a place of their choosing. Terrorism will not go away with a leaderless, devastated Iran. The threat may even increase if we just pack up and leave. So far, it doesn’t appear that he thinks much past day one of anything. Our assault on Venezuela was supposedly to eliminate the Maduro regime. The Maduro regime is still in power, still terrorizing their population and still making themselves rich. Nothing changed except that now Trump has access to Venezuelan oil. I surmise that he cares as much about the Iranian people as he does the Venezuelans or the populations of the other six countries he’s bombed in his second term.

Yesterday in the Senate, and soon in the House, Congress will again abdicate its power and responsibility under the Constitution and give in to the president by failing to pass a resolution under the War Powers Act. The two biggest responsibilities of the Congress are the power to declare war and to control the funding of the government. This Congress has shirked both obligations thus allowing a president that already acts like he can do whatever he wants, to, in fact, do whatever he wants, even starting a needless war. Many people point to the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq as precedents to Trump’s actions. That overlooks the fact that President George W. Bush built a case for war in both areas, went to Congress, explained the need, and acted in concert with the will of the American people at the time. Congress passed Authorization for Use of Military Force (AUMF) acts for Afghanistan and Iraq. One can question whether that was wise and question whether it gave the president too much latitude. The point is, however, that he did consult with and get approval from, the Congress. Trump just ignores them. There is not any “wiggle room” either that this is just a “combat operation” or a “police action” or some other euphemism for “war.” Trump, his cabinet and others have specifically used the word war. I think they like the sound of it. However, contrary to his assertions, there was no imminent threat. He had time to build the case with the American people and to work with our representatives in Congress to justify his actions. He does not think that he has to do that or anything else that he perceives as limiting his power.

When things are going poorly, the aspiring autocrat looks outside of their national borders to create a new enemy and to turn the people’s attention away from what is happening at home.

Long live the king!

War In Iran

Posted: June 18, 2025 | Author: | Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

For almost a week, Israel and Iran have exchanged bombs, missiles and drones causing damage and casualties, military and civilian, on both sides. Israel initiated the conflict when it attacked Iranian nuclear facilities and took out most of the leadership in the Iranian military and Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as well as many of the leading scientists working in their nuclear program. According to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Israeli intelligence agencies believe that the Iranian nuclear program was on the brink of producing one to fifteen nuclear weapons. Since Iranian leaders vow to erase Israel from the face of the earth, the Prime Minister viewed these developments as an existential threat and attacked. (Some politico-military analysts are debating whether it was a “preemptive” strike — meaning an Iranian attack was imminent — or whether it was a “preventive” strike — meaning there was no immediate danger but the Israelis wanted to make sure there was no chance of Iran developing a nuclear weapon. For most of us, that matters little, but under international law, it has significance.)

There is a long history behind the current conflict. For many years, Israel, the United States, and indeed the world worried about the religious zealots in Iran obtaining nuclear weapons. Presidents of both parties have vowed that they would prevent it from happening. Additionally, Iran was the main supporter of terrorism in the world. (They are still a supporter of terrorism, but their proxies in Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis have been greatly diminished and Syria is no longer in Iran’s sphere of influence, limiting their reach, but not their ability to strike.) In 2015, President Obama negotiated the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) with Iran along with support from China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and Germany (known as the P5+1). In brief, the JCPOA limited Iran’s nuclear weapon program as verified by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in exchange for sanctions relief. Trump withdrew from the plan in 2018, re-imposing sanctions and Iran has been ramping up its nuclear efforts since then. Trump was negotiating a “new” agreement with Iran that looks very much like the one that he withdrew from in 2018. Prime Minister Netanyahu denounced the JCPOA from the beginning and lobbied the current administration not to strike any agreements with Iran.

Israel continues to insist that the Iranian nuclear weapon capability was imminent. U.S. and U,K. intelligence sources, according to open press reports, assess that Iran is still not able to produce a weapon. Interestingly, the U.S. Director of National Intelligence (DNI) Tulsi Gabard testified before Congress in March that our intelligence agencies assessed that Iran was not capable of building a nuclear weapon. Yesterday, when asked about that assessment, Trump publicly contradicted his DNI, saying “I don’t care what she said” and avowing that he believed Mr. Netanyahu. (As a side note, if I were the DNI my resignation would be on the president’s desk about five minutes later. But we all know how this administration works. She is still in office.)

It is hard to know exactly what brought us to this point as both the Trump and Netanyahu administrations are not very forthcoming nor particularly truthful, and of course, military operations should remain classified until executed — unless you are Pete Hegseth — so it is only in retrospect that things look clearer. That said, from where I sit, it appears Prime Minister Netanyahu boxed Trump in before he could produce a “deal” with Iran. Emboldened by their successes in Gaza, Lebanon and Syria, Mr. Netanyahu saw that he had an opportunity to attack, had the forces to execute it, and wanted the world to be confronted with a fait accompli. There was no turning back. To date, the Israelis have inflicted significantly more damage on the Iranians than the other way around.

As yet, the U.S. is not involved. As yet. At least publicly.

There are some hard choices ahead for a president that campaigned by saying that he would keep us out of new wars in the Middle East. “America First” is interpreted by many MAGA voters as meaning no foreign wars in support of other nation’s interests. It is doubtful that Israel can continue to pursue its objectives without U.S. support. There are several reasons for that. Israel uses primarily U.S. weapons systems, aircraft, anti-ballistic missile defense systems, ammunition and other equipment. They do not have an unlimited supply. Giving more support to their efforts could get the U.S. involved whether by design or by accident. It also further diminishes our support to Ukraine as supplies are directed away from the Ukrainians and to the Israelis. Which is something that really does not bother Vladimir Putin even though Russia supports Iran — tough choices. Sorry Ayatollah.

Always looming on the horizon is direct U.S. military action against Iran. While prepared, no military planner that I know about relishes that idea. The reality is that Israel cannot completely destroy the Iranian nuclear program without destroying the main Iranian nuclear facility in Fordo, a small community near Qom. The facility is built in to a mountain and is considered extremely difficult to destroy. Current Israeli Air Force and missile capabilities cannot seriously damage it, unless they use one or more of their own nuclear weapons. That is an entirely different discussion. It is conceivable that Israeli special forces could attack it on the ground, but that is highly risky and is probably not on the table right now, especially because there is another option. The U.S. Air Force could deliver a “bunker buster” bomb — properly known as the GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP). It is a 30,000 pound GPS guided bomb launched from a B-2 Stealth Bomber that is believed to be able to penetrate at least 200 feet against concrete, rock or earth before it explodes. Multiple MOPs can be used to go even deeper, if necessary. The only aircraft capable of delivering the bomb is the U.S. B-2. We cannot just supply Israel with it. There are 19 B-2s in the inventory and they are based at Whiteman Air Force Base in Missouri. They have demonstrated their world-wide ability to strike during previous conflicts having flown 34 hour combat missions from Missouri to Libya and back in 2017 using in flight refueling, for one example.

It is a cliche to say that we go to war with the president we have — good, bad or indifferent. Trump has a big decision to make, although it seems hard to believe that he totally understands what is going on. For example, his social media post yesterday directed at Iran said only “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!” Which raises many serious questions about his state of mind. For the record, there are extremely few historical examples of “unconditional surrender” with the last one being Japan at the end of World War II.

There is a case to be made for the U.S. to bomb Iran. From where Iran sits, they now see that they are in dire need of a credible deterrent. Without a nuclear capability they have been exposed as defenseless. Should the bombing stop short of a significant impact on their nuclear program, they have every incentive to accelerate the program and procure one as quickly as possible. One could argue that now is the time to finish the job. Kick them while they are down, so to speak, so that no one has to come back later to finish what could have been done now.

The danger inherent in such U.S. involvement is extreme. Not in the short run, the U.S. could take casualties in any operation but given the current state of Iran’s air defenses, the risk would be assessed as acceptable. The real danger is long term. How does Iran retaliate against us — for they will retaliate in some form or another. What are our strategic goals? Simply to destroy or significantly delay the nuclear program? Trump has been speculating on social media about regime change — assassinating the Ayatollah and other Iranian leaders. Iran is a country of over 90 million people, many of whom resent the regime that has been in place since 1979. However, that does not mean that they want the U.S. or Israel to eliminate their government. Who takes charge? Under President George W. Bush the U.S. thought that bringing down Saddam would be easy and result in a free and democratic Iraq. While most Iraqis were glad to see Saddam gone, they were just as unhappy to see U.S. forces do it and remain in their country. We know what happened there. What to do in Iran?

This is where it gets tricky. It is one thing to bomb Iran, it is another to deal with the aftermath. It seems that Mr. Netanyahu knows how to play to Trump’s biases and ego. He has him nearly ready to provide support to the Israeli mission to destroy Iran. But what does that really mean and what is the long term commitment? Take a look at Gaza. Mr. Netanyahu’s objective there was to eliminate Hamas. That conflict has turned into what appears to be a long term goal to destroy everything in Gaza. Apparently the only way to eliminate Hamas is to eliminate every Palestinian that lives there — either kill them or move them. That campaign has gone on much longer than what was militarily necessary. What are the plans for Iran?

Wars are easy to start but hard to end. We need look only at our own history. I do not trust our president or his senior advisers to think through the totality of their actions. Looking tough seems to be their only goal. That is not good enough. There are sound strategic, geo-political and military arguments to use our forces to decimate Iran’s nuclear program. It is the “what’s next” question that I have not seen anyone in the administration thinking about. How does this all end?