Terror In The Middle East

Posted: October 13, 2023 | Author: | Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: , , , , , | 1 Comment

The horrifying Hamas terrorist attack from the Gaza strip into Israel last Saturday continues to escalate. The situation is complicated and will get more so, but make no mistake, Hamas is a terrorist organization with one goal and one goal only — destroy Israel by killing Jews. The attack is considered the largest loss of Jewish life in one day since the Holocaust. It’s bad. Really bad. Hamas is evil on earth and no one should be confused about their goal or mix their murderous, immoral and depraved actions with any aspirations that Palestinians may have for autonomy and a free state. Hamas cares nothing about their fellow Palestinians and, in fact, are effectively using their friends and families as human shields along with the hostages kidnapped in Israel and taken back to Gaza.

According to the U.S. National Counterterrorism Center, Hamas was created in 1987 at the beginning of the first Palestinian Intifada (an uprising against Israel). It has roots in the Muslim Brotherhood and is concentrated in Gaza, although elements of the organization exist in the West Bank and other areas. In conjunction with the terrorist arm of Hamas, there is also political leadership that won elections in Gaza in 2006 giving them complete control of the population, and rejecting the government and agreements formed by the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO), Fatah, and the Palestinian Authority (PA) that nominally controls the Palestinian territories. Starting in the 1990s, Hamas periodically fired rockets into Israel and conducted small scale terrorist attacks in Israel. Over this time period, Israel periodically bombed Gaza in retaliation for the rocket and terror attacks and in 2005 conducted a large scale ground attack into Gaza to cripple the infrastructure and leadership of Hamas. There are slightly over two million Palestinians living in Gaza which covers about the same area in size as Philadelphia. It is considered the most densely populated territory on earth.

The attack into Israel on 7 October apparently took the Israelis completely by surprise. In military attacks, it is often possible to achieve tactical surprise (think an Army company getting ambushed). Occasionally, a military force may achieve operational surprise (think the Battle of the Bulge in World War II). It is nearly impossible to achieve a strategic surprise as occurred nearly a week ago. Ironically, in military case studies, the most discussed strategic surprise was the 1973 Yom Kippur War where Egypt and Syria completely surprised the Israelis, catching many of their units unprepared. Israel prevailed, but only after a bitter and hotly contested fight. It is too early for in-depth analysis at this point, and the focus should be on destroying Hamas, but it appears that there are similarities between 1973 and 2023. In the former case, Israeli politicians, intelligence analysts and the military considered the region to be relatively stable and that their enemies were not capable of fighting Israel’s superior military. In particular, Israel believed that air superiority was necessary for any successful ground attack and Israel ruled the skies. What they did not account for were Arab mobile air defense systems that provided a secure umbrella over their ground forces protecting them from Israeli air attacks. In 2023, Israeli intelligence analysts and politicians assessed that Hamas was a nuisance with their periodic rocket attacks, but not an imminent threat to national security. Israeli policies were geared towards normalizing the situation in Gaza through economic efforts (aid and allowing Gazans to work in Israel) and to achieve political stability by working with Arab countries to develop their de facto government and to contain Hamas. They were wrong. Hamas is not a “normal” organization and has no interest in acting in a rational manner. Their only mission is to destroy Israel and kill Jews. Exacerbating the slow military response in Israel is the fact that many troops normally stationed on the Gaza border were moved to the West Bank to protect Israeli settlements there and to northern Israel to deter Hezbollah from attacking from Lebanon. The Israeli forces on the border were overwhelmed by the coordinated, simultaneous and substantial influx of terrorists, something that the Israelis (and indeed much of the world) thought impossible for them to do.

Israel will prevail. Unfortunately, it is going to be ugly and there will be large scale loss of life and many of the casualties are and will be civilians.

There is one nagging thought that bothers me. Hamas had to know that the Israelis would respond with a large, overwhelming military response including a ground invasion. Israeli leaders are very clear that their mission now is to kill every member of Hamas. They intend to destroy Hamas so that they are incapable of ever attacking Israel again. This is a clear mission, but perhaps unattainable. My concern is that if Hamas anticipated this response, do they have some surprise in store for the Israeli forces entering Gaza? In and of itself, rooting out Hamas in Gaza, given that Hamas has prepared for this moment for years, will entail bloody, difficult building to building fighting with Hamas on their home turf knowing the lay of the land far better than the Israelis. That will be very difficult, even with the determination, courage and resolve that Israeli forces have in their DNA and through superior training. But is Hamas drawing them into a trap? Having once surprised the world, do they have one last trick up their sleeve? We will find out in the coming hours or days as the Israeli invasion is imminent.

Wars are easy to start and hard to end. A fact in military planning is that the loser decides when the war is over. If the enemy does not give up, if they keep fighting, however feeble their resistance may be, the conflict is not over. The Israelis will have to make it so painful that Hamas gives up. Their political and military leadership declared that they would only accept unconditional surrender, a very rare and difficult resolution to conflict. Since Hamas true believers are willing to die for their cause, even in suicide attacks, they are unlikely to quit, even if they have little hope of succeeding.

The next great humanitarian crisis is about to explode. There is no place for the civilians, many of whom do not support Hamas, to go in Gaza. The territory is bounded by Israel, the Mediterranean Sea and Egypt. Israel will not allow Gazans into Israel (nor should they). To date, Egypt is unwilling to allow refugees into their country — probably because they are afraid that they will never leave and that they would destabilize Egypt. They simply do not have the ability on their own to feed, shelter and protect a projected one to one and a half million refugees, especially as half of the population in Gaza is under 18.

Among other military aid and intelligence assistance the U.S. deployed the USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier along with the guided missile destroyers and cruisers in the strike group. Their purpose is to deter other bad actors from becoming involved in the war. The aircraft and cruise missiles in the strike group are a formidable capability that should make other groups and nations hesitate to aid Hamas or to create their own mischief. U.S. involvement in the current fighting will be avoided (not to mention that Israel does not want it), with the possible exception of special operations forces acting to rescue American hostages taken by Hamas and hidden in Gaza.

At any one time there are thousands of U.S. citizens in Israel on business, touring the holy land, or living in the country. Additionally, there are thousands of dual Israeli-US citizens living in Israel. The State Department is organizing evacuation flights out of the country but inevitably some U.S. citizens will be caught in the fighting (as some already have, at least 27 have been killed and 14 are missing) which will give U.S. military and diplomatic planners cause for concern. The carrier strike group is not configured to evacuate large numbers of civilians. With skill and a little luck, the evacuation flights will get everyone out that wants to go. Not all will want to. For the roughly 600 Americans believed to be working or living in Gaza, for now, they are on their own. They have no way out.

Expect this war to be a long drawn out conflict with large numbers of casualties. Do not underestimate the cruelty and depravity of Hamas. There will be despicable developments surrounding the hostages. Likewise, do not underestimate the determination of Israel to exterminate Hamas. Unfortunately, that will also bring disturbing stories of innocent civilians in Gaza killed and injured. Not because the Israeli forces are targeting them, but because there is nowhere for the civilians to go to be safe and Hamas is not in the least concerned about their well being.

Hamas must be destroyed. It is not going to be easy.

The Curious Case of Sergeant Bergdahl

Posted: June 3, 2014 | Author: | Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: , , , | 2 Comments

For those that may be unfamiliar with Sergeant Bowe Bergdahl, United States Army, he is the soldier that was held captive by the Taliban for five years, probably in a remote area of Pakistan.  He was returned to U.S. Special Forces on Saturday 31 May in exchange for five senior Taliban held in Guantanamo Cuba as terrorists.  From where I sit, there are a number of strange aspects to this case so perhaps we have yet to hear the full story.  However, as it has unfolded thus far, I am troubled by certain aspects of it.

First and foremost I am happy for the Bergdahl family.  As their only son (reportedly he has an older sister), I can only imagine the heartache this family went through and the joy that they now feel as he starts his journey home to Idaho.  For the Bergdahl family, this was a major success for U.S. diplomacy.

On the policy level, I am not sure that we made the right call.  I disagree with the reasons given by some politicians that are critical of the trade, but I do agree that the Obama administration may have set a bad precedent.

Several of the criticisms, in my view, are weak.  Among them:

  • We have now put a price on every American’s head and the incidents of kidnapping for exchanges for other terrorists will now be the new normal.  Weak argument.  For many years now there has been a price on American’s heads overseas, especially in the war zones.  Nothing has changed there.  Terrorists all over the world are not for the first time thinking “why didn’t we think of that? Let’s go find us some Americans to trade.”  Nothing new.
  • The Obama Administration was required to give Congress 30 days notice before moving any prisoners from Guantanamo Bay.  This provision is really a political attempt to prevent the administration from closing down Guantanamo Bay and has little to do with this case.  More to the point, the Commander-in-Chief needs the flexibility to act quickly when an opportunity presents itself.  Given the apparent circumstances of the trade, it probably came about quickly and had to be acted upon quickly or the opportunity could be lost. Concern for Sergeant Bergdahl’s health is the stated reason for the quick action.  One could perhaps argue that this was not as urgent as portrayed by the White House, but the President must still be able to act quickly when opportunity arises.
  • The timing was an attempt to divert attention from the problems in the Veterans Administration.  Really?  The Taliban cares about the VA and politically protecting President Obama?  Really?

Likewise, I think that some of the justifications given by the Administration are weak.  Foremost among them:

  • Our military leaves no man or woman behind.  Fair enough and true enough — an honored tradition.  But I am not sure how we would have been leaving him behind if the United States will still have a military presence in Afghanistan until at least 2016.  There have been some unconfirmed reports that our intelligence agencies had an excellent knowledge of his location and that a Special Forces raid was considered to extract him by force.  If this is true, it is more in keeping with the “no one left behind” tradition than is a “prisoner” exchange.
  • We do not and did not negotiate with terrorists.  Disingenuous.  All governments do.  This includes Israel, most often held up as a paradigm for tough actions against terrorists.  The question is how, when and for what, not whether we or other nations do it.  The Obama administration contends that the Qatari government arranged the deal. Okay, so we did not sit down at a table with the Taliban, but who did we think was at the other end of the Qatari discussion?  (Interestingly, the deal may have been finalized at last week’s West Point graduation ceremony where President Obama spoke and the Qatari Emir was present to see the first Qatari graduate from West Point.)
  • Prisoner exchanges are a normal part of warfare.  Perhaps, and they certainly occur, again under the right circumstances.  What were the circumstances in this case that made it so compelling?  We have yet to get the full story.

Similarly, I think the discussion takes a wrong turn when pundits and critics combine our policy for withdrawal from Afghanistan; our trading of the five Taliban for Sergeant Bergdahl; whether the Sergeant deserved (?!) to be rescued because he put himself and others in harm’s way due to his own actions; and the general view of the Obama Administration’s foreign policy as weak.  All of these things are worthy of discussion, but they are all separate issues and should not be rolled up into one big free for all.  They need to be addressed in context and as stand alone issues, even as they are inevitably related.

It seems to me, as others have stated, that the real reason for this exchange is to tidy up loose ends as the war in Afghanistan winds down.  There are certainly humanitarian overtones to the case, and I’m glad that the Sergeant and his family will be reunited.  As a matter of policy, I don’t think we should have sent five Taliban leaders to Qatar in exchange.  They may be under close supervision for the next year, but if they are still alive a year from now, they will most certainly get back in the game and actively work to undermine U.S. interests.

To me it is a finer point than whether or not to “negotiate with terrorists” or discussions over how many Taliban equal one U.S. soldier (in my eyes an American soldier is worth an infinite number of Taliban, but I understand we won’t trade limitless numbers of them, nor should we do so).  It is just a matter of reality that these wars are different and the fact that some of those we have captured will never go home.  Nor should they ever go home.  We totally mischaracterize the nature of this conflict by talking about prisoner exchanges and the like.  This is not World War I or World War II.  There will be no armistice or peace treaties.  There will be no Marshall Plan for the Taliban or for Al Qaeda.

I look forward to someday hearing the rest of the story.  There are many curious aspects to this case and I don’t think we have heard all of it.  Given what we know so far, if we wanted to get Sergeant Bergdahl home, we should have gone and brought him home.