Shameful? Disgraceful? Or Both?

Posted: February 20, 2025 | Author: | Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

In case you missed it, over roughly the last seven days the convicted felon and 47th president of the United States reversed 80 years of U.S. foreign policy that preserved our security and prosperity at home and allowed the world to enjoy the benefits of a largely peaceful framework for international relations. You may have been too busy following the antics of King Trump (so self designated yesterday) and President Musk as they decimate the federal civil service across the country from the Gulf of Mexico to Denali, Alaska. (Contrary to popular belief, only about 13% of the federal work force is in the Washington DC metro area, 83% is spread around the country and 2% is overseas).

In his incessant effort to please Russian President Vladimir Putin, Trump and his kakistocracy betrayed Ukraine, salvaged Russia from the isolation it deserves, signaled our withdrawal from NATO and encouraged China, Russia and Iran to expand their influence and control. That’s a lot — let’s break it down.

As we approach the third anniversary of the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, a quick reminder as to the chain of events is in order. When the Soviet Union collapsed, about a third of the Soviet’s nuclear weapons were in Ukraine which emerged as an independent state. Under the 1991 security guarantees of Russia, the U.S. and the United Kingdom, Ukraine’s borders were recognized and guaranteed in exchange for relinquishing those nuclear weapons. After Putin emerged as the leader of the “new” Russia, he worked continuously to promote pro-Russian leadership in Ukraine. As a gateway to the rest of Europe, Ukraine was caught between pro-Russian and pro-western European influences. In 2014, Ukrainians revolted and drove out the pro-Russian leader Victor Yanukovych. That prompted Putin to invade Crimea, a part of Ukraine, and annex it. Putin also encouraged and supplied pro-Russian forces in eastern Ukraine to take and hold territory. A simmering war continued there until early 2022 when the full scale Russian invasion began. Note that the quasi-war in Ukraine was underway during Trump’s first term. Also remember that Vololdymyr Zelensky defeated a pro-Russian politician for president in April of 2020. That July, Trump called President Zelensky to push for an investigation into Hunter Biden and his father Joe Biden who Trump correctly expected to be his opponent for president. President Zelensky refused, Trump withheld money appropriated for Ukraine, and the situation led to Trump’s first impeachment.

Strike one against Ukraine. Trump does hold grudges.

During his 2020 campaign, Trump declared that he would end the war in Ukraine on “day one.” Sure. Now he sees it as his mission. However, he is not trying to solve it on terms favorable to Ukraine, but rather to please his old buddy Vladimir Putin. Reportedly, Trump and Putin talked for about 90 minutes last week, the first official diplomatic contact between the U.S. and Russia since the invasion three years ago and afterwards, everything changed.

Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth gave a speech in Europe during an international conference on Ukraine where he clearly stated that it was “unrealistic” for Ukraine to expect to return to its pre-2014 borders, and that it “is not realistic” for Ukraine to join NATO. So much for the art of the deal when before the negotiating even starts, one side concedes to the other everything that they want. Additionally Hegseth (is he really the Secretary of Defense?) told our European allies that the U.S. would no longer safeguard the security of Europe as the U.S. “will no longer tolerate an imbalanced relationship” with our European allies. Indeed, if the Europeans deployed troops into Ukraine to provide for guarantees to protect Ukrainian sovereignty under a future deal, the U.S. would not consider it a NATO mission and therefore there would be no Article Five guarantees from the U.S. Article Five is the key to NATO’s effectiveness. It states that an attack on one member is considered an attack on all and that all members would respond militarily. Without that iron clad commitment from all members of NATO, the alliance is weakened, perhaps fatally weakened. Article Five has been invoked only once — by the U.S. following the attacks on September 11.

Vice President J.D. Vance, the embodiment of the Project 2025 playbook, then gave a speech during the annual Munich Security Conference — meeting to discuss Ukraine and NATO defense spending — that blasted and scolded our closest allies for allowing migration from the Middle East and Africa into Europe and claiming that they violated their democratic values by inhibiting free speech. What he was really attacking was the European’s efforts to counter misinformation, disinformation and outright lies perpetrated by one Elon Musk (yes that same guy) in an attempt to sway voters in several European elections to vote for the hard right parties in those countries. His speech came straight out of the Project 2025 playbook. To further insult our allies, Vance then met with the leader of the far right neo-Nazi German party Alternative fur Deutschland (AfD) rather than with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, A clear signal from the Trump administration as to their future vision and undisguised disdain for our allies.

While all of that was happening, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent met President Zelensky in Kyiv whose purpose, much to the Ukrainians surprise, was to demand that President Zelensky sign a document that gives fifty percent (about 500 million dollars) of Ukraine’s rare earth minerals to the U.S. When President Zelensky hesitated, Bessent gave him one hour to change his mind and sign or there would be repercussions. President Zelensky did not sign. The current status of this demand is unknown.

Strike two against Ukraine. Another grudge.

The U.S. then held bilateral meetings with Russia in Saudi Arabia (hmmm) about the war in Ukraine. This was a huge diplomatic achievement for Russia as the meeting was a sign that Russia “was back” – on an equal footing with the U.S. and once again a player on the international stage after years of isolation. Another victory for Russia in these negotiations. So far, Russia has given up nothing in return.

Oh yeah. Ukraine was not invited to the discussions about its future and neither were our European allies even though they obviously have a huge stake in the outcome.

Afterwards, President Zelensky opined that Trump was living in a “Russian disinformation bubble” and added that Ukraine was not for sale.

Strike three against Ukraine. Trump went ballistic.

In a series of public statements, Trump did what he does best. He lied and lied and lied. (Check his lies and the facts here.) Worst of all, he said that Ukraine started the war. Then he called President Zelensky a “moderately successful comedian” (ouch) who is now a “dictator.” Things went down hill from there. Trump is demanding that Ukraine take steps that fall completely within the Russian game plan to take over in Ukraine.

There are several possible scenarios playing out, none of them good for Ukraine or Europe or for our own national security and economic success. Trump is incapable of strategic thinking and only knows transactional relationships. Therefore one possibility is that, once again, Trump’s fragile ego and need to be respected, at any cost, is wounded. President Zelensky and European leaders have had, in his mind, a free ride for too long and now that he’s the new sheriff in town he wants instant respect and a lot of dollars coming to us (him). He simply cannot grasp the big picture that we benefit more from these alliances and our support of other democracies than it costs us. (See the destruction of the U.S. Agency for International Development that provided valuable support to our own national interests at very low cost. Not to mention the U.S. farmers and suppliers that sell the goods and services.)

A second possibility is that he actually believes that he alone can solve the war in Ukraine. He has always been enamored of Putin and here is Trump’s chance to show that he can deal with him. Of course, we all know that Putin is a master of manipulation. Trump doesn’t even know that he is being taken for a ride. If Putin gets what he wants in Ukraine, I fear for the Baltic states and Poland as they will be next on Putin’s list. And in the not so distant future. Remember that in a 2005 speech to the Russian people, Putin said that the collapse of the Soviet Union “was the greatest geo-political catastrophe of the [20th] century.” He is on a mission from God (literally if you read about him) to restore the Russian empire.

A third possibility is that Trump (well, those around him) have a geo-political vision that is in a way a reversion to the cold war. The “great powers” — U.S., Russia, China — divide up the world into spheres of influence. This would fit into his phantasmagoric ideas of annexing Canada, Greenland and Panama. It would also fit the vision of the Project 2025 folks and Musk and others that the world should be run by rich white men who create Christian white nationalist nations around the globe.

Whatever the motivation, the world is on notice that the United States is no longer the leader of the free world, or any world except the United States. Good luck everyone else. If Trump succeeds in giving Ukraine to Russia, it will mean hundreds of thousands of refugees pouring into western Europe (destabilizing them internally), cost thousands of lives, lead to arbitrary executions, torture and rape and eliminate a democracy and friend. It also gives Russia a green light for further territorial gains and lets China know that we will not protect Taiwan or any other Asian country.

It will be shameful and disgraceful. Not only does it undermine our long held and deeply cherished view of our role in the world and our ability to promote democracy but such actions will endanger our own security and prosperity. We will not be safe. So far, Trump has received nearly zero pushback from formerly respected leaders of the former Republican party. The world that we have cherished for eight decades will be gone and in its place will be a new world that would be impossible to imagine just a few months ago.

The End Of A Peaceful World Order?

Posted: February 19, 2024 | Author: | Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

“No, I would not protect you. In fact, I would encourage them to do whatever the hell they want. You gotta pay. You gotta pay your bills.”

— Donald J. Trump at a campaign rally in Conway, South Carolina referring to another member of NATO threatened by a hypothetical Russian attack.

In recent days there have been both unserious and serious attacks on the stability of our national security policies and the international norms that have helped to stabilize the world order for nearly 75 years. The unserious attack is the foolishness surrounding the Republican majority in the House of Representatives impeachment (by one vote, on their second try) of Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas. According to the Articles of Impeachment Secretary Mayorkas “willfully and systematically failed to comply with immigration laws” and therefore “demonstrated that he will remain a threat to national and border security.” Three House Republicans voted against the impeachment and numerous prominent Senate Republicans considered the entire process to be a sham, including Senator Kevin Kramer (ND), a Trump ally, who called it “the worst, dumbest exercise and waste of time.” The House has passed nearly nothing else of significance during this session and recessed for a two week vacation after the impeachment vote without taking up important and substantive bills regarding our national security. By all objective accounts, this was purely a political stunt to satisfy the radical extremists in the Republican Party and to assuage Trump. Secretary Mayorkas will almost certainly be acquitted in the Senate, if they even hold a trial. (They may refer it to committee for investigation and never have it come forward.)

The serious attack is courtesy of Trump and his MAGA acolytes in the House. During his first term, Trump continually threatened to leave NATO. He is reported to have told the president of the European Commission in 2020 that “NATO is dead” and that the U.S. would “never” come to help Europe were it under attack. He reiterated his 2018 threat to quit NATO. His remarks in South Carolina continue to reflect his disdain for treaties and alliances as well as his ignorance on how they work.

Perhaps a little background will help. As we know, NATO was formed in 1949 to counter the threat to Europe from the Soviet Union. The original twelve members consisted of European and North American countries resolved to stop Soviet expansion in Europe. Today it consists of 31 countries — soon to be 32 when Sweden joins this year — allied in a mutual defense pact. NATO has taken on political and economic roles over the decades, in addition to its core as a military alliance. Despite the MAGA and Trump criticisms that many NATO countries do not pay their “dues,” NATO is not a club and the members do not pay dues. There are some cost sharing administrative expenses and enrichment funds but the reality — and what the MAGA crowd is talking about — is that each country pledged to spend at least 2% of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on its own defense. Throughout its existence, not all nations met that obligation. Several past presidents pushed European nations to meet that goal. In 2014 under President Obama the organization agreed that countries not spending 2% of GDP would start increasing their defense budgets. Today, 18 nations meet or exceed (by the end of the year) the 2% goal. We must also be realistic about which countries can meet the requirement. Countries such as Luxembourg and Iceland with small populations and small defense forces are unlikely to ever meet that goal. It helps to know what you are talking about.

NATO is not some kind of protection racket where you “gotta” pay the U.S. or we won’t help you. “Nice little country you’ve got there. It would be a shame if something happened to it.”

The heart and soul of NATO is found in Article Five of the North Atlantic Treaty. The article requires every member of NATO to come to the aid of any other member subjected to an armed attack. Article Five has been invoked only once, by the U.S. after the attacks of 11 September 2001. Significant numbers of forces were deployed by eighteen NATO countries under NATO command in the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan. Several countries suffered killed and wounded in combat. They were there for us when we needed them. Without Article Five, the alliance has no teeth and becomes worthless. This is the heart of Trump’s declaration that he won’t help our allies if attacked.

This time, he took it a step further.

Trump went beyond his threat to standby and watch when other countries were attacked. He openly encouraged the Russian dictator Vladimir Putin to “do whatever the hell they want.” He invited Russia to attack a NATO ally. As a long time student of national security affairs, and in my career I worked these issues, I never could have imagined that a President of the United States would invite a foreign dictator to attack a democratic ally. Inconceivable. Yet, I have every reason to believe that he means it.

Some Republicans in the Congress are confident that he does not mean it, or at least that’s what they tell themselves. I am not sure why they say that, but here is the practical truth of it. In 2023 the National Defense Authorization Act included a provision that a president cannot withdraw from NATO without approval from the Senate or an Act of Congress. An elegant solution, heh? Not really. Trump, or someone like him, would not have to actually withdraw from NATO. As Commander-in-Chief he would only have to decide that the U.S. will not send or use military forces in support of the attacked country. The provision is only a feel good exercise with no practical aspect to it. I have no doubt that Trump could care less what a provision in the NDA says.

Moving beyond the promised future actions of a presidential candidate, there are practical ramifications right now. Besides signaling to Putin, Xi and Kim that they only have to wait out the current administration and hope for a Trump victory to do what they want, Trump’s MAGA supporters in the House are holding up aid to Ukraine, Taiwan, Israel and humanitarian relief in Gaza because he told them to do so. They bend their knee to Trump and he in turn bends his knee to Putin. Ukraine is suffering terrible losses. No one that knows what they are talking about thinks that Putin will stop in Ukraine. If Kyiv falls, others, primarily Poland and the Baltic States, will be in his sights. Without NATO to deter him, Putin will act. To him, the greatest tragedy of the 20th century was the break up of the USSR. He clearly espouses his desire to reconstitute it. The only thing in his way is NATO. And let’s be clear, many European nations have professional, effective, tough-as-nails military forces. But they would be no match for the Russians. Not because of their fighting ability — we have seen in Ukraine that the Russian Army and Navy are not the unbeatable foes they were made out to be — but because Russia is a large country with lots of people and resources to throw into the breach. They would eventually win by attrition as Napoleon and Hitler learned the hard way. This is what is happening in Ukraine. The Ukrainians have proven over the last two years that they are a formidable foe. But without NATO support — including from the U.S. — they will be attrited and defeated. Russia has already committed terrible atrocities against Ukrainian civilians. Putin is a convicted war criminal. Imagine the death and destruction when he unleashes his forces to wreak retribution against those that dared oppose him in an occupied Ukraine.

Speaker Mike Johnson (MAGA-LA) is an extraordinarily weak Speaker of the House who was thrown into a job he is ill-prepared to fill. Mr. Johnson takes his orders from Trump and Trump does not want to support Ukraine. He is a fanboy of Putin (one wonders why he prefers Putin over his own country, but that is a topic for another day). The Senate passed a bipartisan bill providing the desperately needed aid. The Speaker refuses to bring it to the House floor, even though all knowledgeable participants are convinced that it would pass on a bipartisan basis. Mr. Johnson claims we need to secure our border before providing aid to others, even as he refuses to bring a bill to the floor that was considered the best improvement to border security and immigration rules in decades. The hypocrisy is off the charts. Unfortunately, there is no shame anymore in the MAGA Republican Party, only loyalty to Trump.

Look. Let’s lay it on the line. Biden vs Trump is a referendum on the future of democracy in the United States and our future role in a rules based international society. Trump’s “America First” motto was originally the motto of the isolationists and Nazi supporters in the U.S. prior to World War II. Just like today, there were massive rallies, in the 1930s it was to promote fascism. In the U.S., German supporters formed the German American Bund as a cover to promote policies favorable to Nazi Germany. Tens of thousands of Americans joined. There were about 20 youth training camps to raise future fascists. In 1939 the organization held a rally in Madison Square Garden where over 20,000 people gathered to denounce “Jewish conspiracies” fomented by President Franklin Roosevelt and to support Nazi Germany. There are too many similarities to today for me to think that Trump is bluffing or just playing to the crowd. He means what he says.

Hitler vowed to invade Czechoslovakia in 1938. Desperate to avoid another world war, British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain met in Munich with Hitler, Benito Mussolini, and French president Edouard Daladier and agreed to the fascist’s demands. He declared that he achieved “peace for our time.” He hoped that Hitler would be satisfied. We know the rest of that story. If we give in to Putin in Ukraine, we know the rest of this story as well.

Party Over Country

Posted: February 8, 2024 | Author: | Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

“…former President Trump has become citizen Trump…”

–U.S. Court of Appeals for the DC circuit ruling rejecting Trump’s presidential immunity claim

Although the Court of Appeals categorically denied Trump’s claims of “absolute immunity” as a former president, a decision expected to be appealed to the Supreme Court, he continues to act as if he is above the law and continues to try and destroy our country for his own political and monetary gain. His latest power play is the trashing of a significant bipartisan bill put together by Senate, White House and Department of Homeland Security (DHS) negotiators that provides much needed immigration reforms, beefs up security on our southern border and sends crucial aid to Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan and humanitarian assistance in war torn parts of the world. 

The 118 billion dollar Emergency National Security Supplemental Appropriations Act, primarily negotiated by Senators James Lankford (R-OK), Chris Murphy (D-CONN) and Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ), was touted as the best border security bill to come out of Congress in decades. It died a shameful death in just over 24 hours. Here is what that means.

In October 2023 President Joe Biden asked for supplemental appropriations to assist Ukraine in its existential war with Russia and to bolster Israel in their war with Hamas and to help Taiwan defend against Chinese aggression. The Republican Speaker of the House Mike Johnson (MAGA-LA) flatly refused to consider any aid overseas without first taking meaningful steps to secure the border. Multiple Senate Republicans joined in to express their support for reforms on the border before acting on the request to aid Ukraine and the others. President Biden agreed and the Senate went to work to hammer out a bipartisan deal. After four months of nearly continuous work, and despite multiple attempts by MAGA supporters to undermine the act without even knowing what was in it, the negotiators unveiled the finished supplemental on Sunday night this week. Before it was fully read and digested, the leadership of the House declared it “DEAD on arrival in the House.” (The caps were in their actual statement. Hmmm. Someone else deals in all caps.) As Senator Murphy lamented, on Sunday night there were 20-25 Republican Senators that said they would support it and vote for it. By Monday night there were only four. What happened?

Trump happened.

Trump put out the word that anyone that voted for the supplemental act would be the target of his retribution. As a result, there was no vote in the House and a procedural vote in the Senate to move to debate over the bill failed. Before Monday night, a notable number of Senators from both parties considered this bill to be the best chance to enhance border security in decades. And then it was gone. Along with aid to Ukraine, a country desperate for supplies to counter the Russian invasion. There were no profiles in courage this week. To underscore the magnitude of the reversal, Republicans got nearly everything that they could hope for in a border bill. Frankly, I believe that they were shocked by how much they got. In past negotiations, Democrats had demanded a path to citizenship for Dreamers and others, but not in this bill. The Democrats agreed that there was a crisis on the border and were looking for concrete measures to improve the system. Additionally, many of the Democrats were focused on our commitments to our friends and allies in Europe and around the world believing that aid to counter Russia and China was paramount. They were willing to deal. 

Republicans could not take yes for an answer.

Why would Trump kill it? For several reasons. First, he does not really want to solve the crisis on the border. In many ways, it his identity as a demagogue and provides the fodder to rant and rave about the “others” “invading” our country. If the crisis is solved or even alleviated, he has nothing to run on. By arguing that he can get a better deal when he is president (he can’t — as proven by four years of his presidency) he can continue to argue that the country is being overrun and that it is the Democrats’ fault. Recall the other debacle that took place Tuesday night when the House tried to impeach Secretary of Homeland Defense Alejandro Mayorkas and failed. (They will keep trying until they succeed.) There was no Constitutional basis to do so. It was merely political theater to try and agitate about the border crisis. The very border crisis that they refuse to do anything about. Clearly, the MAGA Republicans and those too afraid to resist them are putting party over country. More specifically, they are putting one man over the needs of our nation. As the Circuit Court identified him, he is citizen Trump. He has no legal or moral authority to dictate anything to the Congress of the United States.

This leads to the other reasons why citizen Trump torpedoed the bipartisan bill. He did it to show that he can. This may be the most dangerous of all the reasons. He demonstrated that in or out of office, he controls the Republicans in the Congress and as a result, given that the Republicans have a majority in the House and very little can get accomplished in the Senate without a filibuster proof majority of Senators, he dictates what gets accomplished in the Congress by vetoing any progress. Trump is laying the groundwork for his autocratic rule in the future. 

Likewise, Trump is pro-Putin, pro-Xi and he sends love letters to Kim in North Korea. Aid to Ukraine would run counter to his support for Putin and Russia. Many of his MAGA supporters are likewise enamored of Putin and other “strong men” around the world. ”America First” means withdrawing from NATO and other alliances around the world. Trump is demonstrating to the world that the U.S. cannot be counted upon to meet its commitments and will turn away from our friends in need. Like it or not, without U.S. leadership, the forces of evil in the world have an ever increasing chance of prevailing. The Russian invasion of Ukraine is a prime example. It is a “pay me now or pay me later” proposition. Should Russia prevail in Ukraine, other nations are next on the list. But do not take my word for it, take a look at Finland and Sweden. Both nations rebuffed offers to join NATO for nearly 75 years. They know Russia. Since the invasion of Ukraine, Finland joined NATO and Sweden is in the process of doing so. They recognize the danger from an expansionist Russia. 

Add to the picture that Trump is pushing his acolytes to remove Senator Mitch McConnell (R-KY) from his leadership position in the Senate. Why? Because he deigned to work with Democrats on bipartisan bills. Trump is also pushing to remove Ronna McDaniel the current head of the Republican National Committee (RNC) because even though she has let Trump do pretty much whatever he wants, she is now considered not MAGA enough. Trump wants a puppet as the RNC chair so that he has absolute control over the political levers of the party. Additionally, he is already using his “rigged election” mantra in Indiana claiming that Nikki Haley, his only remaining opponent for the presidential nomination, is illegally on the primary ballot there. He wants her removed and if she is not, then obviously “they” are trying to steal the election. 

Put all of these pieces together and one can discern that citizen Trump, with no actual role in government, is building the will and the political infrastructure to do as he pleases in our country. His efforts are insidious but ever present. 

We are in for a bumpy and dangerous year.

Dysfunction or Destruction (Continued)

Posted: January 31, 2024 | Author: | Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Since the Republican majority in the House of Representatives took office last January, I have pondered in this space as to whether the new majority was totally dysfunctional or totally determined to destroy our country and our democracy. Without painting everyone in the Republican party with the same broad brush, it is increasingly apparent that while the House is dysfunctional under MAGA Republican leadership, it is also bent on destroying the institutions and norms our government established and refined over the last 235 years. Taking one seemingly singular policy — immigration — it is possible to see how the MAGA crowd combines multiple issues into one large untidy package and brings the wheels of government to a grinding halt.

I will explain further in the following paragraphs, but through a supposed concern over our southern border, the MAGA Republicans controlling the House of Representatives have impacted our relations with NATO and other friends and allies; disrupted desperately needed aid to Ukraine, Israel, Gaza, Taiwan and our own border; initiated impeachment proceedings against a cabinet official; threatened the ability of the Supreme Court to interpret our laws; created the conditions for a state to physically impede federal officials from following the law; and elevated an out of government civilian to become the controlling entity on national policy. The implications for our country are too deep and disturbing to be merely the result of incompetence or dysfunction, although that certainly exists. It can only be attributed to a deliberate attempt to destroy our institutions in order to bring an autocrat to power.

Last October President Joe Biden asked Congress for 105 billion dollars for aid to Ukraine ($61.4 billion), Israel ($14,3 billion), and the southern border ($14 billion) and smaller amounts for Taiwan and humanitarian assistance in the Middle East. Republicans in the House and Senate immediately voiced their concerns over the request and it went nowhere. By the end of the year, Republicans were tying the money to policy reforms impacting our southern border. The president agreed to negotiate changes and invited the leadership of both parties in Congress to the White House to get the process started before the end of the year. Speaker of the House Mike Johnson (MAGA – LA) refused to participate in any solutions that did not meet all of the (mostly impractical) demands of his caucus. In the Senate, both parties, along with Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas and key White House aids entered into intense negotiations. All parties involved agree that there is a crisis on the southern border and that significant steps must be taken to alleviate the situation. Compromises came from both sides, and although the final product is not yet public, many Republican Senators publicly applauded the deal, as did most Democrat Senators and the president. South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham declared that it was the best immigration deal in decades. The legislation seems to be moving to a vote in the Senate in the coming weeks. Money for Israel — great! Money for Ukraine — great! More money to hire significantly more Customs Border Protection (CBP) agents, asylum judges, and facilities to house migrants on the southern border — great! Unicorns and rainbows and meaningful accomplishments! Except for one thing.

Speaker Johnson (also known as “MAGA Mike”) refuses to entertain any of it. Why? Because his boss, an out of office civilian pending criminal prosecution, told him to kill it. Trump has very few, if any, issues in his retribution campaign for the presidency. The only policy issue he touts to date is immigration. He deplores the current policies and claims that we have an “open border.” He uses dystopian rhetoric and xenophobia to paint the crisis on the border as an existential threat to our security and yet, no deal. He wants to run on the issue and cannot do so if it is resolved. He does not want to give a “win” to the Democrats (even though the Republicans publicly declare that they got almost everything they want) and so the country must endure another year of crisis until he is in office. A great patriot. 

Meanwhile, no money for Ukraine. No money for Israel. No money for additional resources on the border. The MAGA Republicans’ total support of Trump includes his desire to withhold money for Ukraine. The pro-Putin wing of the party would like to see Ukraine fail. This is not a domestic issue. By preventing the United States from fulfilling its commitments to NATO, Ukraine and our friends and other allies around the world, we are sending a very clear message to the world that no country should depend on the United States for anything. This plays perfectly into the hands of Putin, Xi, Kim and the mullahs in Iran. If the United States does not stand fully with Ukraine, it is a safe bet that Xi will not expect us to stay the course with Taiwan. We will be finished as a reliable partner and supporter of democracy. The lesson for the world is that democracy does not work. Too chaotic. Too unreliable. Too dysfunctional to accomplish anything meaningful. 

Meanwhile, at the same time that Secretary Majorkas is working with the Senate to find a solution to the border crisis, he is about to be impeached by the House. No “high crimes or misdemeanors,” just that they do not like the administration’s policies. Constitutional scholars of all stripes agree that there is no basis under the Constitution or the law for such an impeachment. Only one cabinet officer in our history has been impeached and that was nearly 150 years ago. (For those curious, it was Secretary of War William Belknap in 1876 for blatant corruption. Although a majority voted to convict him in the Senate, it did not reach the required two-thirds threshold. He had already resigned.) This is just another blatant political MAGA stunt taken at Trump’s direction in order to make his two impeachments look less terrible and to further hurt our country. The Secretary is likely to be acquitted in the Senate — if they even hold a trial which is not required – but if he is removed from office, the president will appoint another person to carry out the same policies. The entire thing is blatantly ridiculous and is underway only to appease one man.

As if this were not enough, the MAGA governor of Texas, Greg Abbott is defying a Supreme Court order concerning the placement of razor wire along the border that restricts and in some cases prevents the federal CBP from doing their job. Under the Constitution, the United States has jurisdiction over immigration and the borders, not Texas. The MAGA rhetoric surrounding the issue is reminiscent of that from southern states in the 1850s. ”States’ rights” is again the issue. Governor Abbot is using the Texas National Guard to “defend” the border and to prevent the federal agents from doing their jobs. Other MAGA governors are promising to send Guard units to Texas to help them defend their “sovereignty” and Governor Abbott’s claims that “the fight is not over” and that Texas has a right to “self defense.” By that he means that state laws and policies have priority over federal law, in direct conflict with the supremacy clause of the Constitution. Great MAGA minds such as Representative Thomas Massie (KY) promote over riding the Supreme Court decision by eliminating President Biden’s border funds. In other words, he advocates solving the border crisis by defunding the DHS. Brilliant! The next steps by the governor or the president are unclear as I write, but it could easily escalate into another self-generated crisis. What is clear is that MAGA politicians are willing to go against the Constitution in order to support Trump and his ambitions. A bad sign for our future.

Taken as a whole, the House of Representatives and certain state houses around the country see that their goal is to create chaos and disruption in order to bring down our established norms and institutions in the name of one man. There are multiple severe domestic and international threats to our national security as a result. Dysfunction may be MAGA’s middle name, but such a wide spread and concerted effort can only be explained when we realize that the real point is the destruction of our norms in order to elevate an autocrat to power. 

Freedom

Posted: February 22, 2023 | Author: | Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: , | Leave a comment

This week on the first anniversary of the Russian assault on Ukraine, President Joe Biden marked the occasion in two important ways. In an act of secrecy worthy of a spy thriller, he visited the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv to reiterate U.S. and NATO support of the Ukrainians in their fight to retain their democracy against a ruthless dictator. The next day, President Biden gave a major speech in Warsaw Poland celebrating the stand that democracies around the world are taking against Russia and vowing that their support will continue until Ukrainian democracy is secure.

One year ago, I am sure that Russian President Vladimir Putin thought that he would be standing in Mariinsky Palace, the ceremonial home of the Ukrainian president, rather than the President of the United States. Many others, whether or not they admit it now, thought the same thing one year ago. There was no way that Ukraine could stand up to the mighty Russian bear. And yet, they did, and they have, and they continue to do so. It must have seemed like the ultimate insult to Mr. Putin that President Biden strode the streets of Kyiv in broad daylight, even as air raid sirens blared during his stroll with Ukrainian President Zelensky. Neither president flinched.

President Biden’s visit lasted five hours after flying all night from Washington to Germany to Poland where he boarded a train for the ten hour trip to Kyiv. It was another ten hour train trip back to Poland after his visit. Not too bad considering his critics think that Mr. Biden is “too old” to continue as president. He seemed invigorated and on top of his game as he proudly stood by Mr. Zelensky’s side and declared “Ukraine stands! Democracy stands!” During his visit, Mr. Biden promised an additional 500 million dollars in military aid to Ukraine. The visit was symbolic, of course, but in many areas of diplomacy and international affairs, showing up is important. It indicates resolve and commitment. It has real meaning. It puts strength behind words that could have been spoken in the White House but that mean so much more when said in the streets of Kyiv.

Several historians pointed out that this is the first time an incumbent American president has been in a war zone and vulnerable to enemy fire since President Abraham Lincoln visited Fort Stevens on the outskirts of Washington D.C. on 12 July 1864. There, during the second day of an attack by Confederate soldiers, President Lincoln stood on a parapet of the fort to see what was happening and came under fire from enemy snipers. Thankfully, he was uninjured. While not trying to make President Biden’s visit comparable to President Lincoln’s, as he did not come under direct fire, it was still a remarkable act of courage personally and as a president. While other presidents have visited war zones before in Viet Nam, Afghanistan and elsewhere, they were visiting U.S troops in areas under U.S. control under very strict security protocols — often in the dark of night. Mr. Biden had no such protection from American forces on the ground which is why the impact of his visit was so powerful and meaningful to the Ukrainians and to our NATO allies and friends.

The following day, Mr. Biden gave a powerful speech in Warsaw. It was perhaps the best foreign policy speech of his presidency and was delivered forcefully and convincingly. In it, he vowed that Russia will “never” win in Ukraine and reiterated that the U.S. and NATO will stand stronger than ever in their support for Ukraine. He also directly refuted a claim made by Mr. Putin in a speech earlier in the day where Mr. Putin claimed that Russia was not attacking Ukraine but merely defending itself from an attack by NATO forces. All lies, as most of the world knows. As Mr. Biden said in his speech, “This war was never a necessity. It’s a tragedy. President Putin chose this war. Every day the war continues is his choice.” He also further emphasized the remarks made by Vice President Kamala Harris a few days before that the Russians are conducting “crimes against humanity without shame or compunction.” This is a statement that has meaning in the long run as it triggers international laws and treaties that will attempt to hold Mr. Putin and his flunkies accountable for the purposeful death and destruction the Russians are inflicting on innocent civilians.

Mr. Biden put into words what is at stake. Simply put, it is freedom. Not just for Ukraine but for the world. As he said in his speech:

Freedom. 

There is no sweeter word than freedom.  There is no nobler goal than freedom.  There is no higher aspiration than freedom.  Americans know that, and you know it.  And all that we do now must be done so our children and grandchildren will know it as well.

Freedom.

The enemy of the tyrant and the hope of the brave and the truth of the ages.

Freedom.

This is where the far right MAGA crowd in the U.S. House of Representatives misses the mark. They are very critical of our policy towards Ukraine and our willingness to support them in their fight against Russia. Some are open admirers of Mr. Putin and all that he stands for. I will resist slamming their ignorant statements, for in the end, most Americans understand that if we allow Russia to subjugate Ukraine, it will not end there. For the first time since World War II, a country, Russia, is openly saying that the old world order where nations do not subjugate other nations by unprovoked force, no longer applies. If we do not stop Mr. Putin in Ukraine, then the Baltic States, Poland, and other eastern European nations will be in line for Russian aggression. Mr. Putin has for years reiterated his belief, first stated in 2005, that the collapse of the Soviet Union and its empire “was the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the [20th] century.” Worse than World War I. Worse than World War II. He intends to restore that empire. It is his vision quest.

If he is not stopped in Ukraine, then nowhere is safe. Make no mistake, under President Biden if Russia attacks a NATO country, it is war. It is better to stop him in Ukraine than to allow that to happen. It is incredible that some right wing MAGA advocates do not know or understand history or the threat imposed by Russia.

There is another player on the world stage watching all of this. China. Be assured that President Xi Jinping is following events in Europe closely as he contemplates his own ambitions towards Taiwan. A year ago he would be among those that thought Ukraine had little chance of holding off the Russians and he likely assumed that NATO would not band together to support them. While China is willing to take the long view, he must now assess whether the Taiwanese will fight as relentlessly as the Ukrainians. He must also assess whether the rest of the world will come to Taiwan’s aid as they have in Ukraine. He must also assess whether his own military, in which no one currently in his Armed Forces has experienced full scale combat, is up to the test against the U.S. and other NATO countries and friends that have become combat hardened in over twenty years of wars in Asia.

It is not just about Ukraine. It is about fighting tyranny and autocrats the world over. Will democracies be up to the task? One year ago many autocrats around the world assessed the U.S. and NATO as weak and unwilling to stand up for their principles. Probably, that is a legacy from the previous administration. Now those autocrats know the answer.

Let’s make no mistake, however. The war in Ukraine will continue for a long time. Perhaps years. While the U.S. and NATO have been crucial to Ukraine’s success, the aid given so far mostly just keeps Ukraine from losing, rather than winning. The West must increase the lethality and range of the weapons and systems supplied to Ukraine. Without expanding our support, the war will continue to drag on and on. In the end, do not forget that Russia has a larger population, economy and military than Ukraine. A war of attrition is not good for Ukraine and that is how the war is slowly evolving. In some respects, it resembles the trench warfare days of World War I. If the West truly believes that this is the critical stand that democracies must take to prevent the spread of dictatorships, then it is worth giving the Ukrainians the weapons they need, including offensive capabilities.

As the well worn phrase explains, “freedom isn’t free.”

Ukraine (Still) Has Not Perished

Posted: October 12, 2022 | Author: | Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: , , | 1 Comment

In English, the Ukrainian national anthem is known as “Ukraine Has Not Perished.” Indeed, it has not perished, even as the unprovoked Russian invasion of its territory continues. The initial invasion took place in February 2014 and the Russians invaded again in February 2022. Over seven months ago, Russian President Vladimir Putin went all in on his long-standing desire to annex all of Ukraine, not just Crimea or the eastern part known as the Donbas. After seven long months of warfare, massive casualties continue to mount on both sides of the conflict. Recently, however, the Ukrainians have shown themselves to be the superior force on the ground — both in terms of their fighting ability and in terms of their will to destroy the Russian troops invading their country. There does not appear to be any comparable will to fight in any of the Russian units engaged in combat and thus the tide is starting to slowly turn in the Ukrainians’ favor.

Perhaps surprisingly so, the Ukrainian successes create an ever more dangerous situation. The last few weeks have shown that President Putin is not willing to back off of his stated goal to crush the Ukrainian people, overthrow its government, and install a puppet regime that is controlled by Moscow. Indeed, he is doubling down despite his gross miscalculation that he could take Ukraine in a matter of days with a quick strike into Kyiv. To show his resolve to control Ukraine, earlier this month he formally annexed the regions of Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia in eastern Ukraine. That part of the country is where the fighting on the ground continues and the Russian and pro-Russian forces are concentrated there. The annexation was announced despite one important thing — the Russians do not control all of that territory. In fact, Ukrainian forces have the Russians in retreat in several parts of the annexed areas. This is where things get dicey.

President Putin declared that those four regions were now a part of Russia proper (just as he claimed Crimea in 2014) and that an attack on them would be considered an attack on the homeland. In a late September speech, President Putin declared that he was willing to use nuclear weapons to defend Russia’s “territorial integrity.” Since then he has reiterated that he is willing to use “all means necessary” to protect the newly acquired territory, which is a euphemism for threatening to use Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) to prevent Ukraine from retaking their own territory. (WMD are chemical, biological and nuclear weapons.) Bluff? Bluster? Empty threats? Warning? No one is sure, and that is the problem. Mr. Putin backed himself into a corner that now threatens the stability of Russia as a country and threatens his own iron grip on the population. He considers the current state of affairs to be “an existential threat” to Russia and to himself. Is it possible that if he sees his own safety and power threatened that he would lash out? Possibly, but let’s look a little closer.

The past few days have given us some ideas as to how Mr. Putin might respond to an expanded war. When the twelve mile long Kerch Strait Bridge from Crimea to Russia was partially damaged on Sunday, the Russians retaliated by launching massive air strikes using approximately one hundred cruise missiles and suicide drones in one morning to attack Ukrainian infrastructure and civilian neighborhoods. (So far, no one has claimed responsibility for the attack on the bridge, but Russia assumes it was Ukrainian special forces.) The Russian supply of such weapons is not endless, but air strikes are probably the primary method that the Russians will use to continue to disrupt daily life in Ukraine and to inflict serious damage. The intent is to break the will of the civilian population and force the Ukrainian government to seek a settlement of some kind. It will not work.

The Russian style of warfare is based on raw brutality. Massive numbers of people and weapons are used against every aspect of an opponent’s military and civilian systems, capabilities, support and people. The term “collateral damage” does not exist for Russia. Killing civilians and destroying playgrounds, hospitals, apartment buildings, and any other area of a city is the point. Torture is a tool to be used. Indiscriminate bombing is a tool to be used. Everything is on the table. If brutality is the point, then that adds credibility to any threat to use WMD. So does that include nuclear weapons?

In my opinion, no. Not because Mr. Putin considers them to be off the table. Rather, so far, he calculates that he has other means at his disposal to achieve his war aims. In my many years in the military, I never seriously believed that we, or anyone else, would use nuclear weapons. The deterrent impact of sufficient numbers of weapons on both sides made it highly improbable. But now, for the first time in my adult life (I was around for the Cuban Missile Crisis, but that is a different situation), the chances are not zero. I still think that the probability of Mr. Putin using a nuclear weapon, even as a “demonstration,” is incredibly low, but no one knows for certain what he may be capable of doing. Probably more likely is the use of chemical weapons. The Russians used them, or at least abetted their use, in Syria. It may be as the Russian army withdraws from yet another town or village that the incoming Ukrainian forces may be subject to a chemical attack. If so, it is likely to be on a small scale and intended to be a deterrent to a continuing Ukrainian offensive and a warning to the rest of the world that the Russians are not bluffing when they threaten to defend themselves using “any means necessary.”

More likely, the Russians will expand their use of asymmetric attacks such as cyberwarfare, economic warfare such as limiting or stopping the export of oil or natural gas, or halting the shipment of goods (especially grain) from the Black Sea. A clear sign of such efforts occurred in late September this year when Swedish and Danish sensors detected explosions in the Baltic Sea. It was soon discovered that the Nord Stream pipelines running from Russia to Europe were experiencing massive leaks, thus stopping the flow of natural gas to Europe. To date, there is no official blame or explanation for the leaks. It is widely believed, however, that Russian special forces are to blame. The Russians, and other nations including the United States, have the capability to operate from submarines near the seabed to disrupt the wide array of modern infrastructure that crosses great bodies of water such as gas and oil lines and fiber optic cables. As winter approaches, Mr. Putin may be pushing European nations, especially Germany, to give up their support of Ukraine by disrupting their economies and signaling that other elements of infrastructure could be at risk if their support to Ukraine continues. It may be a long, cold winter in much of Europe. In the short run, it actually hurts Russia as the gas it sells to Europe is a major element of support to the Russian economy. The side effect is to again signal that Mr. Putin is willing to do “anything,” even if it hurts his own people, to achieve his goals. I would expect to see more of these moves from the Russians, as long as they can plausibly (or in some cases implausibly) deny their involvement.

The war in Ukraine will drag on for months to come, possibly years. Mr. Putin knows that he is in trouble on the ground and his army is being destroyed. Recent attempts to mobilize 300,000 additional troops to fight in the war have gone badly. Russian men are leaving the country in droves. Reportedly, over 200,000 have fled to Kazakhstan alone. Another 100,000 are said to have left for other countries surrounding Russia in order to avoid conscription. Even if he raises an additional 300,000 troops, they will be poorly trained and equipped based on what we see with his allegedly “elite” forces that have already been decimated on the battlefield. They will only be cannon fodder, which is yet another indicator that the Russian army and Mr. Putin in particular have no concerns about the lives and well-being of their soldiers or their civilians. It is worth noting that Mr. Putin’s retaliatory strikes this week and his threats to use “any means necessary” are not aimed at the Ukrainian soldiers on the front. Rather, they are all aimed at the Ukrainian civilian population. It is terrifying for them, but as has happened throughout history, his terror tactics only increase the resolve of those under attack.

Mr. Putin has many options left in his bag of tricks. However, even he must recognize that he does not want to go toe-to-toe with NATO. He must also recognize that as his attacks on Ukrainian cities escalates, he runs the risk of NATO and other friendly nations increasing the number and sophistication of the weapons they are sending to Ukraine.

It is hard to know how this conflict ends, but it is increasingly less likely that there will be a negotiated settlement.

Never Again!

Posted: April 19, 2022 | Author: | Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: , , , , , | 4 Comments

In what should be more than a war of words, the term “genocide” is being tossed around in the wake of the fighting during Putin’s War. Russian President Vladimir Putin used the term prior to his invasion of Ukraine, claiming that the Ukrainians were committing genocide against the Russian speaking population of Donbas in the eastern part of Ukraine. Indeed, it is part of his disinformation campaign to justify his invasion and he connects it to his declaration that the Ukrainian government is run by “Nazis.” There is a long history of this sort of talk from Mr. Putin. In short, the Soviet Union’s war against Nazi Germany in World War II is glorified in Russian history beyond any level that we in the United States may understand. He is trying to build support for his war by tying it to the success of the Soviet army against the Nazis. Forgotten in that telling, of course, is that in 1939 the Soviet Union was allied with Germany via a non-aggression pact and they divided Poland between them. Also conveniently forgotten is that in April and May of 1940 the Soviets executed about 22,000 Polish military officers and intelligentsia in the Katyn forest.

In 2022 we face a difficult situation. President Joe Biden called Mr. Putin a “war criminal” for the atrocities taking place in Ukrainian areas occupied or under siege by Russian troops. At last count, Ukrainian government prosecutors were investigating about 5,800 cases of war crimes and crimes against humanity, with more uncovered everyday. These are facts which, unfortunately, many of us can see for ourselves each night on the national news. Last week Mr. Biden took it a step further during an event in Iowa by saying that Mr. Putin is “a dictator that commits genocide.” Later, he doubled down on his statement saying, “Yes. I called it genocide. It’s become clearer and clearer that Putin is trying to wipe out the idea of being Ukrainian.” Which has a basis in fact, as Mr. Putin repeatedly claims that Ukraine should cease to exist as a sovereign nation. He believes it should be Russian with only Russian speakers living there.

War crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide are all legal terms under international law. Each is the result of ever more horrifying actions of one people against others. Genocide, however, has usually been reserved for the most heinous of crimes and gives another level of importance to the events in Ukraine. As if they were not already of utmost importance. The moral stakes are as high as they can be.

The 1948 Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide (often called the Genocide Convention) codified the United Nations resolution of 1946 that made genocide a crime under international law. In Article II, the Convention document defines genocide as meaning “any of the following acts committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial, or religious group as such: Killing members of the group; Causing serious bodily or mental harm to members of the group; Deliberately inflicting on the group conditions of life calculated to bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part; Imposing measures intended to prevent births within the group; Forcibly transferring children of the group to another group.”

I will leave it to the international law experts to define what “in whole or in part” means, but it would seem that actions by one nation attempting to eliminate another does not have to succeed in entirely wiping them out. Merely trying to do so is a crime. In fact, the Convention states that conspiracy or incitement to commit genocide is itself a crime. Certainly it is easy from what we know in open source reporting that the Russians have violated at least four of the five genocidal actions under the Convention.

Sadly, whether brought up on war crime charges or for genocide, it is unlikely that Mr. Putin or any of those in his inner circle or those carrying out his orders will be brought to trial. Under the Convention the investigation and trial of such crimes are to be undertaken by the nation in which they occurred or in international court.

The real issue here is a moral one. It raises new questions about how NATO should support Ukraine and how this conflict will end. If we in the West truly believe in the slogan “Never Again!” — meaning we will never again sit by and watch the slaughter of thousands or millions of our fellow human beings as occurred in the Nazi death camps — then now is the time to step up. This is a major test of the world order and a test that will have consequences for decades to come. Russians are deliberately torturing, killing, beheading, raping, and desecrating civilians in Ukraine. I’ll repeat that. Deliberately. Even though I cannot understand how human beings can be so cruel to others — and yes, I know my history from around the world including here in the U.S. — it is none-the-less happening. It is an instrument of planned terror. It also provides a look into the psyche of the average Russian. Only by dehumanizing an opponent — thinking of them as “scum” (Putin’s word) and other than human — can people be so cruel.

These actions also impact how the war will end. How can Ukraine reach a negotiated settlement with Russia if the Russians are attempting to wipe out the very meaning of what it means to be Ukrainian? How can the West broker a settlement with a country accused of genocide? Is anything short of a complete defeat of Russia rewarding their genocidal policy? Does giving up Ukrainian territory — rewarding Russia for committing genocide — even make sense? Such questions have a significant impact on the course of the war, who gets involved, and its outcome.

My thoughts on NATO and with that, U.S. support to Ukraine have evolved over the course of the last few weeks. I think we need to go all in. Not with troops in Ukraine — at least not yet — but with every offensive and defensive weapon we can reasonably give to Ukraine. I am sure that we are providing valuable intelligence data to the Ukrainians (surprise Russian flagship Moskva!) to help them with their targeting but we should take that a step further to allow them to attack into Russian territory to hit supply, fuel and military targets. Continue to put our best military minds to work with imaginative, but deniable, actions that hinder the Russian military. Sanctions are the public face of such efforts — and they are beginning to work — but there is much more to do. Our covert capabilities are excellent. There is more to do without directly fighting the Russians.

The moral imperative is there now. I have come to understand what Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is saying about how this is a fight for the future of western democracies. It may sound like hyperbole, or over-dramatization on their part, but as we see the ruthless brutality of the Russians such statements take on more meaning. Importantly, remember why Mr. Putin started this war. Once the propaganda is removed it is for one major reason. He saw a direct challenge to his totalitarian regime. If Ukraine — where many Russians have family members as do Ukrainians in Russia — becomes a full fledged western democracy sitting fully on his border, he will soon have internal domestic problems as more and more Russians clamor for a similar assimilation into Europe. As it is, many of his troops are seeing a way of life that they could not imagine. In addition to the subjugation of a nation, there is a reason Russian troops are carrying away washing machines, laptops, televisions and other consumer goods. They cannot get them in many parts of Russia and certainly, many average Russians cannot afford them.

Mr. Putin is desperate to maintain his way of life and to rule Russia with an iron fist. That is why Ukraine is such a threat. He must destroy it in order to show that the western democracies of NATO cannot succeed in protecting it, therefore no nation should think that democracy is a way of governing that succeeds. How far he is willing to go in this scorched earth policy we can only guess. This is the first time in my experience that sober, knowledgeable people are talking about the use of nuclear weapons. Many surmise that Mr. Putin thinks such weapons are a viable option if needed to succeed in Ukraine. That should give all of us pause and emphasize once again how serious this war is and how much more serious it can become.

We get easily distracted by such things as “The Slap” at the Academy Awards show, or whether we now have to wear masks on airplanes. Life goes on, yes, but the stakes are higher in Ukraine than many believe. Five million people to date have left Ukraine for other countries. This in its self is a humanitarian crisis. It is also part of the Russian plan to destabilize western Europe by disrupting the ability of democratic governments to care for their own people and the refugees.

Genocide is underway. There is a massive humanitarian crisis underway. Terror is raining down on the civilians in many Ukrainian cities, killing tens of thousands of innocent men, women and children. Russia is reportedly deporting women and children from occupied areas to camps in Russia. More atrocities will be uncovered. Mr. Putin is trying to destroy the ideals of western democracy. The list will grow longer.

If we mean “Never Again!” we need to act on it.

The Butcher of Bucha

Posted: April 5, 2022 | Author: | Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: , | Leave a comment

“Russia is worse than ISIS. Full stop.”

Dmytro Kuleba, Ukrainian Foreign Minister

This past weekend we witnessed two significant events surrounding Russia’s war on Ukraine. The Russians withdrew from the towns and suburbs around the capital Kyiv, and the resulting discoveries were horrendous. Besides the utter destruction of homes and buildings, it was clear to the most impartial observers that the Russians had conducted untold atrocities on the civilian population including murder, rape and looting. To date, over four hundred civilian Ukrainians are known to have been murdered in one town alone. Some were buried in mass graves, some were left where they were shot in the street. Dozens were shot execution style with their hands tied behind their backs. The pictures are horrifying. The stories from the survivors are worse. The town of Bucha was the first to uncover the breadth of the atrocities but it will not be the last. Many observers believe that similar war crimes are being committed in other occupied cities and towns. The only difference so far is that those areas have yet to be freed of Russian forces, their accomplices from Chechnya and the mercenaries sent to bail out the Russian military.

These two developments together may mark a turning point in Putin’s War. Analysts believe that the Russians are in the process of concentrating their remaining forces in eastern Ukraine to dominate the separatist areas of Luhansk and Donetsk. This is why the battle for Kharkiv is so essential. Additionally, they will concentrate on completing a Russian land bridge from Crimea to Russia along the coast of the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea. This is the importance of the battle for Mariupol and efforts by the Russians to capture Odessa. So far, the Russians have failed to achieve all of their strategic and operational goals. The Ukrainian resistance is unbelievable and is to be commended. Unfortunately, the war is not over and time is on the Russian’s side. At the current rate, the Ukrainians cannot hold out for ever, perhaps only a few more months. Meantime, the loss of Ukrainian lives, military and civilian, continues during heavy fighting and deliberate and random Russian attacks on cities and civilians. Russian president Vladimir Putin seems to be taking the approach that if he cannot have Ukraine, then he will make sure that there is nothing left for the Ukrainians that survive his brutal attacks.

This should come as no surprise to anyone that studies eastern European history. It is certainly no surprise to the Ukrainians. For a hundred years or more, the Russian way of fighting includes destroying civilian infrastructure and killing as many civilians as possible. While leading the Soviet Union, Josef Stalin killed millions of Ukrainians, Poles, Russians and others in war and in peace. Mr. Putin has used scorched earth tactics in Chechnya, Georgia, Syria and elsewhere. It is what they do. It is what they are doing now. Make no mistake, the war crimes ongoing in Ukraine are not the result of poorly trained, undisciplined individual units going berserk. This is a strategy. It is meant to terrorize the civilian population into giving up. Even as the Russians deny their atrocities and call it “fake news” they are glad it is publicized. It gets the message out to those watching that the terror is real and it is personal. It is an integral element of their conduct of war and crucial to the PSYOPS (Psychological Operations) they are conducting to demoralize the Ukrainian population.

Now is the time for NATO to act with ever greater urgency. The Russians are temporarily disorganized, demoralized and lacking in unit cohesion, supplies and the essentials of war. That will not last forever. While they are regrouping in Russia and Belarus, the NATO allies and other supporters should be pouring weapons and materiel into Ukraine to give them the chance to go on the offensive and push the Russians back. Apparently, there is a debate among the allies as to supplying “defensive” arms to Ukraine as opposed to “offensive” arms. It is past time to forget about such niceties. For the Ukrainians, this is a fight to the finish. For the rest of the world, this is a fight for freedom and democracy. Ukraine is on the front lines. What happens there will have great geo-political consequences for the West and much of the rest of the world. Give them what they need. They are doing an incredible job defending themselves. They are not asking for NATO troops or forces from anywhere else — only the weapons they need to fight the Russian war machine. As important in warfare as weapons is the will to fight. The Ukrainians have proved their determination to fight for every inch of their nation. But they don’t have the weapons. Most military men and women will tell you that when the shooting starts, they don’t know or care whether the bullets and shells coming at them are from “defensive” or “offensive” weapons. They just know that they are getting shot at. Of course, let’s not forget that the Russians went on the offensive to start the war and continue to be offensive in their operations and actions in every sense of the word.

Primarily, the U.S. is under pressure to supply more sophisticated weapons to Ukraine. Without going into a litany of particular weapon systems, U.S. sophisticated weapons are not of much use at this point because the Ukrainian Armed Forces do not have the training to use them. The U.S. should continue to supply massive amounts of effective, but less sophisticated weapons such as MANPADS (Man Portable Air Defense Systems such as Stinger missiles) and NLAWS (Next generation Light Anti-tank Weapon Systems such as British and Swedish shoulder fired systems or the larger U.S. Javelin). Such weapons are easy to learn to use in a short period of time and are quite effective in the right circumstances. Just ask the Russian armored columns.

More sophisticated weapons such as mid or high-altitude air defense systems, or coastal missile systems, or tanks or airplanes should come from our NATO allies that were formerly part of the USSR or Warsaw Pact. These Soviet era weapons are of the same types that Ukraine primarily has in their military so there is no ramp up in training. They can be used immediately. Poland in particular could be quite effective in this way.

As much as can be provided now, not a month from now or later, would be most effective in saving Ukrainian lives and in giving the Ukrainian military the opportunity to take advantage of the Russian disarray. Let’s face it. The Ukrainians are not going to march to Moscow. They will not retake Crimea through force. Whether “offensive” or “defensive” they need the equipment now to save lives and to push Russia to meaningful negotiations.

At the same time NATO needs to decide which “red lines” must be drawn. War crimes are taking place daily. Russia must be held responsible. It is too far-fetched to believe that Mr. Putin will ever stand trial in person for his war crimes. However, significant destruction of his conventional military power is not beyond the realm of possibility if he continues to pursue the war in Ukraine. They have been proved to be ill-equipped, poorly trained, lacking in leadership and short on logistic support. But there is still the preponderance of force on their side both in manpower and in numbers of weapons. They can still over-run Ukraine if they go all in, which it seems Mr. Putin is willing to do. He is not personally suffering from sanctions or the war. As I mentioned above, the Russian mentality is to crush everything in their path. If that means losing thousands (or in World War II, millions) of their own troops, so be it. They are ruthless in every way, including the treatment of their own fighting forces. To date, no number of casualties is too high.

The Butcher of Bucha will not stop the atrocities. We need to make them pay the highest price we can.

Ukraine Has Not Yet Perished

Posted: February 26, 2022 | Author: | Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: , , , | 1 Comment

Ukraine has not yet perished, nor its glory and freedom,

Luck will still smile on us brother Ukrainians.

Our enemies will die, as the dew does on the sunshine,

and we too, brothers, will live happily in our land.

We’ll not spare either our souls or bodies to get freedom

and we’ll prove that we are brothers of Kozak kin.

— English translation of the Ukrainian National Anthem adopted in 1992.

Roughly seventy-two hours ago, the Russian military attacked and invaded Ukraine from the air, land and sea. It was expected that the Russians would swiftly roll over the Ukrainian countryside and capture key cities, especially the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv. So far, that is not happening. The Ukrainian military is fighting hard and inflicting severe casualties on the Russian invaders. Although accurate information is difficult to come by, especially since Russia has released no casualty figures, the Ukrainians are believed to have captured, killed or wounded thousands of Russians. At the same time, the Ukrainian government is mobilizing the population, arming them — over 18,000 weapons were issued to civilians in Kyiv alone — and teaching them how to make Molotov cocktails (gas filled bottles with a fuse thrown at vehicles — ironically named after a Soviet era Foreign Minister) and other improvised explosive devices (IEDs). None-the-less, the world does not expect Ukraine to defeat Russia or even to hold them off forever. Ukraine is getting moral support and supplies, but under the current conditions, there is no expectation that outside forces will come to their support by fighting inside Ukraine. Instead, countries around the world are imposing the “Mother of All Sanctions” on Russia. Realistically, this will not stop Russian President Vladimir Putin from destroying Ukraine, but it will make it much more painful for his country’s citizens than they may be prepared to experience.

The biggest concern to the rest of Europe and to the United States is that purposefully, or through an accident, the war will spread outside of Ukraine. In particular, Poland, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are worried that Mr. Putin will take the opportunity to reimpose the outlines of the former Soviet Union. Likewise, Romania is concerned about the integrity of its border. All are NATO countries. (Norway is also a member of NATO and borders Russia, but has fewer concerns about an attack.) I am neither a psychologist nor a psychiatrist but the speeches that Mr. Putin has given the last few days are bordering on the psychopathic. He sounds delusional, fundamentally unsound, and oblivious to any criticism inside or outside of his inner circle. In short, he sounds like a madman, even insinuating that anyone that thwarts his plans could be subject to a nuclear attack. Last Thursday he referred to the fact that “Russia remains one of the most powerful nuclear states” and went on to say that “there should be no doubt for anyone that any potential aggressor will face defeat and ominous consequences should it directly attack our country.”

As the fighting continues, for the first time in NATO history in response to war on the European continent, the NATO Response Force (NRF) is being activated. The NRF includes 40,000 military personnel from countries throughout NATO, and in past exercises included forces from non-NATO members Finland and Sweden — both of which border Russia. Their governments are now considering joining NATO in response to the Russian aggression in Ukraine. The force includes aircraft and naval forces in addition to land troops. The president order the deployment of about 7,000 more troops from the United States for the NRF, which is in addition to the thousands already deployed from home in response to Russia’s attack.

What are the chances of war spilling over into other areas of Europe? As I often do, let’s take a look at history to see if there are any parallels. There are two that jump out in my mind. One is the events leading up to World War II. The other is the Cuban Missile Crisis. (I am of the generation that in elementary school, we practiced hiding under our desks or assembling in the hallways should there be a nuclear attack. No joke. When we assembled in the hallways, we would press up against the walls in two rows. I always wondered about the kids in the outer row who in my mind would take the majority of the blow from an explosion. Of course, we were too young to appreciate that none of us had a chance in the case of an actual attack.)

The Cuban Missile Crisis reflects the dangers of miscalculation and sheer brinksmanship between two nuclear powers. We are not there, but a chance encounter could put us into this category.

So far, this is a conventional war so let’s use the run-up to World War II.

  • Following the end of World War I, the Treaty of Versailles in 1919 formally ended hostilities and completely reshaped the geographic boundaries of many central and eastern European nations, in some cases creating or recreating nations that had “disappeared.” CHECK. Following the dissolution of the former Soviet Union, newly independent countries emerged such as the Baltic States and Ukraine. Mr. Putin calls this the “greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century” and is the basis for his claim that Ukraine does not exist as an independent country.
  • In 1938 Germany annexed the Sudetenland (part of Czechoslovakia) as a result of the Munich Agreement between Germany, United Kingdom, France and Italy to bring “peace in our time.” CHECK. In 2014 Russia annexed Crimea, part of the territory of Ukraine. The world scolded Russia but made no meaningful effort to stop or reverse the first such annexation in Europe of one country’s territory by another using force since World War II.
  • Throughout the spring and summer of 1939 Germany annexed parts of countries throughout central and eastern Europe claiming that that they were ethnically, culturally, and traditionally a part of Germany. CHECK. Mr. Putin claims that Ukraine is actually part of Russia and points to the large number of ethnic, cultural and linguistic similarities between the two countries. He claims that he must move into Ukraine to protect Russians.
  • On 23 August 1939, Germany and the Soviet Union signed the Molotov-Ribbentrop Treaty providing for a secret plan for the two countries to divide Poland and “giving” the Baltic States and Finland to the Soviet Union. CHECK. Prior to the Beijing Olympics this year, Mr. Putin and China’s President XI Jinping met. Although the details of any agreement is not known publicly, it is assumed that some sort of deal was reached that at a minimum, China would not interfere with Russia’s ambitions in Europe.
  • On 1 September 1939 Germany invaded Poland. France and the United Kingdom had promised to protect the territorial integrity of Poland. World War II began. CHECK? No guarantees were given to Ukraine that its territorial integrity would be protected by NATO or any country. However, NATO is implementing the NRF to protect NATO states from Russian aggression. NATO and non-NATO nations are supplying Ukraine with significant weapons and materiel to fight the Russians. To keep those supply lines open under the current conditions could easily result in a Russian attack on the supply lines into Ukraine.
  • In September 1940 the America First Committee was formed to pressure Congress to keep the United States out of foreign wars. Although its aim was to promote American isolationism, it was also antisemitic and largely pro-fascist. Charles Lindbergh (yes, that Charles Lindbergh) was the face of the organization that eventually reached about 800,000 dues paying members in 450 chapters around the country. The goal was to put, surprise, America First by not getting involved in World War II and by protecting “American” culture, which did not, in their view, include taking in immigrant Jews from Europe. The committee disbanded on 10 December 1941. CHECK. Our own American useful idiots for Russian propaganda want to put America First and raise many of the same questions that the original brand raised. DJ Trump, M. Pompeo, T. Carlson, and many others in the MAGA crowd question why we don’t support Russia (after all, they are just protecting their borders) or openly admire Mr. Putin (“genius”, “savvy”, “talented”, “enormous respect”, “capable statesman”, etc.) Indeed, Russian state television is running verbatim clips of a certain Fox evening celebrity defending Mr. Putin and asking “Why do I hate Putin so much? Has Putin ever called me a racist? Has he threatened to get me fired for disagreeing with him? So why does permanent Washington hate him so much?” (There’s more but I can’t stomach any more of this unpatriotic nonsense.)

There are many parallels. There are areas where there are no parallels. The point is that history often has serious lessons to be learned. I have no idea if the war in Ukraine will spread, but I think that every American should be paying attention to it because there are indications and warnings that it could, in fact, spread to a NATO country and then the world is at war. Even without war, there will be hardship in the United States. Nowhere near the hardship the Ukrainians are going through, or even the families of those young Russians sent out to die for Putin, but the American populace should be ready for economic sacrifice as the world’s economy is impacted by sanctions on Russia and their reciprocal actions. We in the United States have not really had to sacrifice in any real way in a long time. The “Greatest Generation” knew sacrifice. We do not. Shoot. We as a nation could not even be bothered to wear a mask during the greatest pandemic in the world in a hundred years without whining about it and claiming that health professionals were fascists and dictators. No wonder Mr. Putin and those like him think he can get away with an unprovoked attack on a neighbor.

I hope that President Biden and his administration do a better job explaining to our fellow citizens why it is important to help Ukraine defeat Russian aggression. We have seen time and time again that ruthless dictators are never satisfied. Mr. Putin’s stated objective is to restore the Russian empire and to regroup those nations that were once Soviet Republics. Like so many despots and autocrats, he is telling us what he plans to do. Believe him.

I am gobsmacked that many Americans do not know that Russia is a dictatorship and Ukraine is a real, no kidding, democracy. The Ukrainians have some problems. They are working on those issues. So, when did we stop supporting democracy in order to cheer on a dictator? A dictator that works aggressively to undermine everything that we stand for in this country? I really do not get it.

Meanwhile, the Ukrainians hunker down in a real fight to the death. The very survival of their country is at stake.

“Ukraine has not yet perished.”

Ukraine

Posted: February 19, 2022 | Author: | Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: , , , | Leave a comment

As I write this piece, the world is on the brink of the biggest combat operations in Europe since World War II. Approximately 190,000 Russian troops threaten Ukraine’s borders on three sides supported by air and naval units in position to attack targets inside Ukraine. In military intelligence terms, all of the Indicators and Warnings (I&W) point to an invasion within days or even hours. Most telling is that the Russians have moved perishables, such as blood and plasma supplies, to positions near the border. Those types of logistics cannot sit in storage at the front for long.

Yesterday President Biden made a rare revelation in a speech to the nation addressing the impending crisis. When asked if Russian President Vladimir Putin had decided on his course of action, the president responded, “As of this moment, I am convinced he’s made the decision.” By that, he meant that Mr. Putin had decided to invade. When asked how he could know, he responded that the U.S. has a “significant intelligence capability.” This is important on several levels. One is that he is telling the world that the full weight of American capabilities indicates that the attack will happen and we should be prepared. On another level he is giving Mr. Putin an indication of our skill and capability in using our intelligence assets to keep a much closer eye on him and his activities than he might know. Finally, if we have this level of granularity into the Kremlin’s thinking, we may yet deter him from taking military action.

Personally, I have thought for quite awhile that the Russians would attack Ukraine. The only questions were when, and how strongly. He is going to do it. Mr. Putin clearly stated on numerous occasions that he considers Ukraine to be part of Russia. He will not be deterred. How far he goes depends on the Ukrainians. Mr. Putin’s goal is to depose the current Ukrainian government and to replace them with one that is more “friendly” to Russia. How far he goes militarily most likely will depend on the depth and degree of resistance from the Ukrainians and whether the current government stays in place.

This afternoon the artillery and Rocket Propelled Grenade (RPG) attacks from the separatist regions of Ukraine have dramatically increased. At the same time, they are evacuating civilians from cities in the Donbas region, specifically the Donetsk People’s Republic — one of the break away regions in southeastern Ukraine — to Russia. The Russians and their proxies in the occupied region are trying to provoke a response from the Ukrainians as a pretext to attack. So far, the Ukrainian military has exercised remarkable restraint by not taking the bait. As the Biden Administration has warned over the last several weeks, there is likely to be a major “false flag” incident (Russian agents attack their own people, or buildings or otherwise make it look like an atrocity occurred) to further the lie that Ukraine is the instigator of hostilities. There are numerous misinformation campaigns underway on the internet claiming that the Ukrainians are conducting genocide against the separatists or that chemical weapons attacks have occurred there. It is likely that some major manufactured incident will give the Russians their excuse to invade.

The Biden Administration has put steel into the spine of our NATO and EU allies. After weeks of diligent diplomatic efforts, the vast majority of the world’s leaders are condemning the impending attack and are onboard with sanctions aimed at crippling the Russian economy and going after Mr. Putin and his pals directly. Questions remain as to whether those sanctions should be used before or after the invasion. Many diplomats argue that invoking sanctions now may give Mr. Putin an excuse to attack. Others, such as Ukrainian President Volodymir Zelensky argue that they should be put in play immediately. At a security summit in Munich today, Mr. Zelensky addressed the assembled diplomats, including Vice President Kamala Harris, and bitterly chastised the western powers for waiting. He argued that sanctions need to be implemented now, not after the attack when Ukraine’s economy will have collapsed and “parts of our country will be occupied.”

Further, Mr. Zelensky decried the absence of support promised in a 1994 agreement known as the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances. Put together by the United States, United Kingdom, and the Russian Federation, the Memorandum gave security assurances to Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan against threats or use of force to change the territorial integrity or political independence of those states in return for their relinquishing all nuclear weapons. Following the break up of the Soviet Union, those three countries had large stockpiles of former Soviet nuclear weapons. Indeed, in 1994 Ukraine had the world’s third largest nuclear arsenal. While the Russians retained operational control of the weapons due to controls required to utilize them, the Ukrainians had physical control of them. Arms control experts around the world worried about those three states’ ability to protect the weapons from falling into the wrong hands, especially terrorist hands. Mr. Zelensky today pointed out that in 2014 Ukraine got no help from anyone when Russia invaded and annexed Crimea. He wants it now.

Post World War II history teaches us that our enemies, competitors and adversaries often grossly under estimate American resolve. They view our very public domestic political fights as signs that we are distracted or weak. Currently, the incorrect view that we “ran away” in Afghanistan solidified the narrative that the U.S. was no longer a player on the world stage. Wrong. Over the last year, the Biden Administration worked hard to repair the damage done by the former guy to our relationships with our allies and especially within NATO. In my view, Mr. Putin did not expect the strong, and most importantly, unified stand that the West is taking to support Ukraine. He miscalculated. The effort to deter him permanently will probably fail, but it appears he is at least thinking twice before proceeding. In the end he probably will calculate that he can survive the sanctions and other non-military measures from the West. He is on a vision quest to restore the Russian Empire and Ukraine is the key to his ambitions. At this point, he cannot totally turn away. Deflect, delay, or otherwise play games with the timing or methods of attack, but in the end he will not leave Ukraine as it is.

The U.S. deployed about 5,000 troops from the 82nd Airborne Division to Poland. Accompanying them is a headquarters element from the XVIII Airborne Corps to form Joint Task Force (JTF) Dragon. Their deployment is designed to strengthen our ties to NATO and probably to help with the influx of refugees into Poland when the fighting starts. Additionally, about 2,000 troops are redeploying from Germany to Romania for the same reasons. Both Poland and Romania border Ukraine. There are about 80,000 members of the U.S. military in Europe including forces from every branch. Some of those are rotating forces that come in and out of various countries based on the threat and/or exercises. Less well known is the fact that the U.S. has elements of the U.S. Navy ashore in Poland and Romania. The Navy’s Aegis Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) System that is the main battery on our cruisers and destroyers is now in ground based installations in those two countries. Known as Aegis Ashore they are placed there to protect our NATO allies from “rogue” ballistic missiles — most likely from Iran or North Korea. They are purely defensive in nature, but you will sometimes hear Mr. Putin reference them when he talks about Russian security threats from NATO.

When the invasion begins, it is unlikely to start with Russian troops blasting their way across the border. The fighting will come in stages, perhaps with operational pauses to negotiate before the next attack. Cyber attacks will be followed by an onslaught from the air from the Russian air forces and from cruise missiles from Russian ships in the Black Sea. Ukraine has little in the way of air forces or air defense capabilities. The Russians will own the air space which will allow them to move forces with impunity and attack at will. Russia does not have to occupy the entire country. Decapitating the government and holding key positions in key cities will give them the “victory” that they need to control Ukraine’s future. Russia has been fighting in Syria for years. They made a point of rotating all of their key combat units through that battle space so that they are now all battle tested. Both in terms of individual units, and in terms of command and control of combat forces spread over a wide area — two things that they did not previously possess or do well. They have learned a lot of lessons and have applied them.

The Ukrainians have the will to resist but little in the way of organized military forces once they have been decimated from the air. Their plan is to conduct a guerilla war and to inflict as many Russian casualties as possible to undermine the will of the Russian people when their sons and daughters are killed or maimed.

Make no mistake about it. This is going to be ugly. Barring a Ukrainian surrender or collapse at the start, there will be tens of thousands of casualties and as many as a million refugees fleeing the country. This will have world impact, economically and politically. We will all suffer. As is often the case, once war begins, no one can predict whether it will spread or how it will play out in the end. A few “mistakes” could lead Europe into another war. Kyiv is a modern city with about 2.5 million residents. Once electricity is knocked out and water is unavailable living conditions in the city will deteriorate rapidly. In addition to war casualties, it will be a humanitarian disaster.

As President Biden and his cabinet have been warning us, events in Ukraine will not be about some far off place nobody has ever heard of or people we do not care about. Even if one thinks that now, a war in eastern Europe will impact all of us.

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