A Tough Week For the USA

Posted: May 17, 2026 | Author: | Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

President Xi Jinping of China greets Donald Trump in Beijing. Trump tried his “yank-shake” handshake as he arrived in Tiananmen Square to meet with Xi. It did not work as Xi stood calmly but firmly. Trump ended up tapping his hand multiple times and held his hand a remarkably long time. It seemed a test of wills that Xi appeared to win. That was the first of many wins for China during the summit. (Photo by AJP/Getty)

Last week Trump travelled to China for a long planned summit with Xi Jinping. It did not go well. One of many such failures as the war of choice against Iran continues, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, prices continue to rise, Trump remains fixated on his ballroom, arch and reflection pool, and we learned of his plans to use the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) to create a slush fund with taxpayer money to raise a private army to do his bidding in the lead up to the mid-term elections. Just another week in May under the Trump regime.

Nearly every analyst and former U.S. government diplomat not on Fox News deemed Trump’s visit to China as an unmitigated humiliation. The Chinese did what they do very well by putting on a great show for Trump that included everything from military units in formation to young children waving flags and singing. Trump soaked it all in with undisguised glee while at every turn doing all that he could to flatter, praise and openly admire Xi in hopes of being his friend. Meanwhile, Xi unemotionally but firmly stuck to substance and his talking points in taking Trump to the woodshed and stealing his lunch money. The entire visit was staged to show that China is an ascending power and that the U.S. is a declining power. So long world stage — Trump is now just another actor on display, no longer considered the world’s most important figure in the nation no longer considered the most formidable on earth. What happened in China not only demonstrated strength in their declaring that they are now a power to be reckoned with, but it also strengthened the perception throughout the world, for enemies and allies and friends, that Trump is no longer to be feared or taken seriously. Move along folks, nothing to see here. Or as I heard from my days living in Texas, Trump proved that he is “all hat and no cattle.”

It started when Xi warned Trump publicly not to fall into the “Thucydides Trap.” For those who may have slept through their western civilization courses in school, Thucydides was a Greek historian analyzing the Peloponnesian War between Athens and Sparta in ancient Greece. The theory is that when a rising power, in this case Athens, threatens a ruling power, here Sparta, it leads to war. The modern theory came from the Harvard professor Graham Allison who studied multiple historical examples and concluded that it is possible to avoid the “trap” through cooperation, communication and co-existence such as between the USSR and US during the cold war. Unfortunately, Trump seems naturally unable to cooperate, communicate or co-exist with anyone.

Xi was clearly telling Trump, publicly, that China was at least an equal power to the U.S. He was warning Trump that China was willing to fight for their future and would not be cowed by the United States. Where does it most immediately apply? With Taiwan. China claims that Taiwan is part of the People’s Republic of China, not an independent democratic state. China fully intends to integrate Taiwan into their country. (See what happened with Hong Kong.) The only issue is when and how. U.S. policy regarding Taiwan for decades, under Democrat and Republican administrations, has been one of strategic ambiguity. That means that we recognize a “One China Policy” whereby China includes Taiwan but we do not endorse China’s claim nor intend to facilitate their taking over the island. Indeed, we provide weapons to Taiwan in order for them to maintain their self-defense, we will not let China dictate those arms sales, we will not be an intermediary between China and Taiwan and we will continue to recognize Taiwan’s sovereignty.

During Trump’s visit Xi explicitly, and again, importantly publicly, declared that the Thucydides Trap may be Taiwan if the U.S. did not allow China to take it over. Specifically Xi said, “the Taiwan question is the most important issue in China-US relations. If mishandled, the two nations could collide or even come into conflict, pushing the entire China-US relationship into a highly perilous situation.” In diplomatic speak he is telling Trump to buzz off and let them have their way with Taiwan. Amazingly, Trump briefed Xi on an impending 14 billion dollar arms sale to Taiwan and asked for his assessment (permission?) about going ahead with it. Trump said he considered the sale to be a “bargaining chip.” To make matters worse, on Fox News in response to questions about Taiwan he said, “We’re supposed to travel 9,500 miles to fight a war? I’m not looking for that.” Taiwan is about 7,800 miles from Washington D.C. (Oh yeah. Tehran is about 6,400 miles.)

In sum, Trump treats democracies (Ukraine, Taiwan) like parasites to be ignored or given over to dictatorial states (Russia, China) whose leaders he considers to be his friends and bows to whatever directions they give him.

Meanwhile, the war of choice against Iran may or may not be over. Apparently Trump is bored with the whole thing and he must think that if he just ignores it, it will all go away. It is not. The Strait of Hormuz is still closed to most traffic. Trump asked Xi to help get the Strait open again and was politely rebuffed. Xi is not about to help out as they have their own special relationship with Iran. Besides, why help your opposition when they are slowly being degraded militarily and economically in a war that they started. He is not going to rescue us from our own mistake. Most economists clearly state that the worst economic impact of the war is yet to come — even if the war ended today. Like it or not, we are stuck in the Middle East, even as our Arab friends are looking around for someone other than the U.S. to ally themselves with as they slowly realize that Trump could care less about their future.

Iran? Taiwan? Economic hardship for Americans? Trump could care less. He even said so last week. On his way to depart for the China trip a reporter asked him about the plight of the average American consumer who is struggling due to the impact from the war in Iran. His response? “I don’t think about Americans’ financial situations, I don’t think about anybody.” What he does think about is his ballroom, arch and reflection pool. He is still seeking one billion taxpayer dollars for his ballroom and construction is continuing. He has hit a temporary setback as the Senate Parliamentarian ruled the current bill out of order for a simple majority vote. It will require sixty Senators to approve it. I do not expect that to impact Trump’s plans. The survey teams were out this week scoping and testing the soil at the site of Trump’s proposed arch, even as numerous groups work in court to stop it. Trump tried to attach its construction to already approved contracts for the White House itself, even though they are at least a mile apart and have no actual relation to each other. No law, rule or regulation is going to stand in his way. The two million dollar renovation of the reflection pool that went in a no bid contract to one of his friends has now burned through over thirteen million dollars of taxpayer money and is behind schedule. Of course it is.

This week we also discovered another of the many Trump schemes to enrich himself and to consolidate his power. Besides his wealth increasing by about five billion dollars since being elected in 2024 — I am sure there is no insider trading or conflicts of interest involved at all — you may recall that Trump, as president, is suing the IRS for ten billion taxpayer dollars. Apparently there are negotiations underway where Trump will forgo the ten billion for 1,776,000,000 taxpayer dollars. (Get it? Ha ha. I cannot make this stuff up.) The 1.7 billion will go to a “Truth and Justice Commission” to pay reparations to all of those who suffered from the “weaponization” of the Department of Justice (DOJ) during the Biden Administration. Besides the fact that only Congress can authorize and appropriate the use of taxpayer dollars, and the fact that Trump is once again negotiating with himself to see how much money he can walk away with, there are several other wildly disquieting issues surrounding this scheme. One is reportedly that in return for the new agreement, Trump, his family and all of his organizations, entities and enterprises can never ever again be audited by the IRS. I am sure that is totally on the up and up. But it gets worse.

Among those explicitly discussed as recipients of payouts are the roughly 1500 rebels that invaded the seat of government, mauled law enforcement officers and tried to overthrow an election and were convicted or pleaded guilty for their crimes. Trump pardoned them for doing his bidding and now he wants to pay them. Hold that thought. Under the proposal, there would be five Commissioners, four of whom would be appointed by the Attorney General, and Trump could dismiss any one of them or all of them without cause. All proceedings would be classified and not reviewable by any entity except Trump. The amounts and individuals or entities receiving payouts would not be disclosed. Trump himself would not be eligible for a payout, but his family and any Trump businesses or other organizations would be eligible. In other words, a Trump slush fund to use as he wants at taxpayer expense.

It is easy to see this as a viable way to raise a private army to wreak havoc before, during or after the upcoming elections. He did it once, but now he can promise them pardons and a payout for committing their crimes. Untouchable. None of us are stupid enough to think that no one would take up the offer. It is scary.

Tomorrow starts another week. Let us hope that Congress and the courts curtail or stop this reckless abuse of presidential power. Countries around the world have come to see Trump for who he really is and have stopped being impressed by his bullying and false bravado. There is no substance there and they are moving on. Let us hope that our fellow citizens realize the same things.

Threats From Afar

Posted: November 18, 2021 | Author: | Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: , , , , , , | 2 Comments

While many of us are focused on the internal threats created by actors within one of the two major parties in our country, developments overseas may create long and short term threats to our national interests. The chaos created by an ex-president ranting about stolen elections and defending insurrections, coupled with Members of Congress that threaten other Members with death, and the general unrest fomented by self-declared revolutionaries, draws attention away from other developments.

In the long term, China provides a real threat to many of our established interests. In the short term, Russia is under increasing internal pressure to improve the quality of life for its citizens, a challenge that President Vladimir Putin may not be able to meet. Thus, he increasingly turns his focus outward. In both cases, a tried and true tactic of autocrats is to quell internal unrest by creating outside enemies that focus citizens’ attention outward.

Looking long term first, China is vying to be the biggest economic, political, and military competitor to the U.S. Chinese legislators recently removed term limits for their presidency, making President Xi Jinping the de-facto President-for-Life. He has now amassed power on the scale of the late Mao Zedong. Indeed, in December 2019 the Chinese Politburo gave him the official title of the “People’s Leader.” That title was only used once before — for Mao. Since assuming power, President Xi has taken a hard line nationalist position on national security and foreign affairs. As part of this strengthened position, Xi has consolidated Chinese control of Macau and Hong Kong. Especially in the case of Hong Kong, this enhanced control led to the loss of most of the freedoms its residents previously took for granted. The Hong Kong of pre-2019 is no more.

All of which leads to the long term threat. China seems to be intent on gaining control of Taiwan, much as it did with Hong Kong. The U.S. walks a fine line in its relationship with Taiwan. In adhering to the “One China Policy” the U.S. recognizes the government in Beijing as the “true” government for China, rather than any government in Taiwan. The Chinese view is that Taiwan is a break-away province of China and must be reunited with the rest of the country. In order to have diplomatic relations with Beijing, there can be no official recognition or official relations with the Taiwanese government. Complicating the issue is that Taiwan considers itself to be the Republic of China — an independent country. The U.S. encourages the re-unification of the two, but only under peaceful, negotiated conditions and has vowed to support Taiwan against any coercion or military actions to force the situation.

The threat is one of war in the Pacific. Over the last few weeks, China has become increasingly bellicose in its statements concerning Taiwan and has sent ships and aircraft in the direction of the island nation — drills according to the Chinese, tests of Taiwanese defenses according to the view of those on the island. As many as 56 aircraft at a time have flown into Taiwan’s ADIZ (Air Defense Identification Zone — airspace controlled by a particular nation to enhance national security but outside its territorial boundaries). The United States and Australia in particular, but including other countries with interests in the Pacific, have warned China about its provocative actions and that they will respond to any Chinese military attack or other coercive measures against Taiwan.

Stay tuned as this crisis will continue to build. It is unlikely in the near term that China will directly attack Taiwan or any other forces in the region, but we can expect China to continue to ratchet up the pressure and to increase the level of provocations. There is always the danger in such conditions for an error or inadvertent action that results in shots fired. More ominously, it is likely that China is taking the long view — as in years. They will continue to enhance their economic and military strength to the point that their threats and provocations will have real teeth. They are probably not there yet, but under Xi, they clearly intend for Taiwan (formerly Formosa) to rejoin mainland China for the first time since 1949.

Russia is a different case. Since 2014 when Russia invaded Ukraine and annexed Crimea, an uneasy truce prevails along the border, even as active fighting occasionally occurs in some areas. In recent weeks, Russia moved 80-100,000 troops to the Ukraine border region. U.S. and NATO officials are worried that such movements may be a precursor to an invasion to reassert the Russian control that they lost with the 1991 break up of the Soviet Union, of which Ukraine was a part.

Western sanctions against Russia are having an economic impact, as well as the fact that Russia is experiencing a devastating fourth wave of COVID infections. Things are not good in Russia these days. Additionally, it is believed that President Putin believes the West is in disarray and that this may be his best opportunity to enact his vision of a “Greater Russia.” Mr. Putin never accepted the breakup of the Soviet Union and once said that “the breakup of the Soviet Union was the greatest geo-political tragedy of the 20th century.” He sees that the U.S. is focused on internal dissent and domestic turmoil as well as China and Asia in general. Chancellor Angela Merkel in Germany is stepping down. The French have elections in a few months. Ukraine appears weak and fractious. The U.S. is absent its ambassadors pretty much throughout the world, including to the E.U. and NATO and is missing high level political appointees in the Department of Defense (DOD) and State Department weakening our diplomatic clout. (Senator Ted Cruz (Tr-TX) primarily, with an assist from Senator Josh Hawley (Tr-MO) are holding the nominations hostage for their own purposes. Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) for some reason is not playing hard ball and is letting them get away with it. How about keeping the Senate in session day and night right through Thanksgiving until all nominations are approved? But I digress.)

The situation is ripe for Mr. Putin to take action. We may be seeing the early stages of the drama play out in Belarus and Poland. In brief, Belarus is “importing” “refugees” from the Middle East and Africa and sending them to the Lithuanian and Polish borders. The Belarus military is reported to be aiding the refugees in trying to enter those nations, and at the moment, particularly in Poland. Poland refuses to take them. Besides a looming humanitarian crisis, the aim of Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko (referred to as “Europe’s Last Dictator”) is to create a political crisis and to destabilize the western nations by overwhelming them with poor refugees. President Lukashenko is angry over western sanctions against his country following their imposition in response to a totally corrupt and illegal “election” last fall that allowed him to stay in power. Mr. Lukashenko never would do anything to upset the stability of the region without at least tacit permission from Mr. Putin. Many speculate that it is direct Russian permission and support.

There are two possible reasons to create this crisis. One is to take more attention away from activities along the Ukrainian border. The other is to provide an excuse for Russian western expansion.

Note Kaliningrad. Part of Russia. To get there, Russia needs to cross into Poland, and/or Lithuania. The Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania) were once part of the Soviet Union and still have large ethnic Russian populations. As does Ukraine. If Mr. Putin is serious about his Greater Russia, there is no better place to begin his expansion. (I’m sure everyone remembers what happened in the Sudetenland with Germany in 1938.) As those familiar with European wars know, the terrain between Russia’s mainland and the Baltic is mostly flat, open space. In military terms, there is little defense in depth nor are there many geographic features to use to mount a strong defense against armor columns. Indeed, the U.S. keeps a military presence in the Baltic states in order to deter Russian meddling.

Am I predicting another theater-wide war in Europe? No. I do not predict much of anything anymore. It just seems that Mr. Putin may assess that if he is ever going to start building his vision of a restored Russian Empire, the time is now to start somewhere. “Reuniting” Kaliningrad and the Russians in northern Poland and the Baltics with the motherland may be on his mind. A crisis on the border with Ukraine or Belarus may give him the pretext.

The point is that these are dangerous times. There is a lot going on in the world outside of our obsession with an ex-president and his corrupt political party. We must be on guard against “all enemies foreign and domestic.” While we are focused inward, our enemies and competitors will take advantage of it.

These are, indeed, interesting times.