The Kremlin Rules!

Posted: March 1, 2025 | Author: | Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Yesterday, 28 February 2025, was a day where you, me, historians, diplomats, and anyone else that cares about the role of the United States in international diplomacy will talk about as “before 28 February and after 28 February.” We now know that the convicted felon in the White House who tried to stage a coup to keep himself in power is totally, 100 percent behind Russia’s Vladimir Putin and against our long standing allies around the world. Trump’s and Vance’s ignorant display in the Oval Office yesterday reflected the essence of this administration — embarrassing, repugnant, vengeful, hypocritical, and extremely dangerous.

Trump invited President Zelenskyy of Ukraine to the White House yesterday. Ostensibly, the reason for the meeting was to discuss the possibility of Ukraine giving the U.S. access to the rare earth minerals believed to be in Ukrainian territory. (No one is exactly sure what or where those valuable minerals actually are as there are almost no mines actively recovering them and the existence of such minerals is based on a decades old map done by surveyors from the Soviet Union.) Instead, President Zelenskyy walked into an apparent ambush by Trump and his MAGA henchman J.D. Vance where they berated and harassed Mr. Zelenskyy while spreading lies and disinformation about the actual situation in Ukraine. (If you have not yet seen it, watch it here. The body language is as important as what is actually said. Or read about it here.) Note that J.D. Vance started the harangue. J.D. is usually not allowed to attend such meetings between Trump and foreign dignitaries (Trump doesn’t want to share the spotlight), which further indicates that he was part of some plan along with Trump to stick it to the Ukrainian. To his credit, Mr. Zelenskyy did not take the bait, stayed calm, and did not yell back at Trump. He did, however, resolutely stick to his position and to try and explain the dire situation that he and his nation are in because of Russian aggression. What really seemed to enrage Trump was when Mr. Zelenskyy tried to explain that no deal with Russia was worth anything without concrete security guarantees. Further, he warned Trump that if he made an unsecured deal with Putin, eventually the U.S. would be in danger. Trump tripped off the line and starting ranting about Hunter Biden, the Russia “hoax” that Putin suffered through, and countless other grievances that had nothing to do with the alleged negotiations at hand. In the end, Trump sounded exactly like a mafia Don threatening retribution on a business that refused to give him a cut. The point was to bully Mr. Zelenskyy in a dual attack in order to get him to concede to a deal to stop the war that would be exclusively favorable to Russia. Mr. Zelenskyy refused. The meeting ended with Trump ordering the press out of the office and saying, “This is going to be great television.”

What does this attack on Mr. Zelenskyy mean? Why would Trump take Russia’s side in the dispute since they are the clear aggressor and the war could end in one day by withdrawing the Russian and North Korean troops? Let’s take a look.

There is a difference between what things are and what things mean. This was a crude and very undiplomatic shouting match aimed at bullying one of our allies in front of the cameras. What it means is that the U.S. is no longer a reliable partner to our NATO allies and our friends around the world. It means that Trump supports the dictator Putin over the leader of a democracy suffering at the hands of an unprovoked aggressor. It means that Trump and Putin will probably work out some kind of “peace” deal without Ukraine having a say. It means that Russia will be encouraged to continue its quest to reestablish the Russian empire. It means that the U.S. is meaningfully less secure.

This is the biggest diplomatic change since the arrival of the United States on the world stage at the start of the Twentieth Century. We are now aligned with Russia who is aligned with China, Iran and North Korea. Countless leaders throughout the free world from Belgium to New Zealand lined up in support of Mr. Zelenskyy and his stance to defend Ukraine.

Where was Secretary of State Marco Rubio, known as an avid anti-Russian hawk? Slumped in a chair next to Vance looking very much like he wished he could disappear. Where was National Security Adviser Mike Waltz who as a Congressman was another anti-Russia, pro-Ukraine supporter? Missing in action. After the dust settled many, many of the MAGA crowd (there are no longer members of the Republican Party in Congress) chose to blame the melt down on Mr. Zelenskyy. They focused on the fact that he did not a wear a suit and tie (he goes everywhere in modified military gear to remind everyone his country is at war) and therefore he was disrespectful and argumentative. (Musk wore a ball cap and t-shirt to a Cabinet meeting in the White House earlier this week, but apparently he can do whatever he wants to do.)

Mr. Rubio and Mr. Waltz should resign. It is clear that they have no influence over Trump or American policy. But of course, they will not. They have been totally coopted. American foreign policy is no longer based on American values and strength. It is now based on the ignorant whims of one man who thinks he is a world player. Instead, he is getting played.

Why is Trump trying to destroy our role in the world by aligning with Putin? I have given this a lot of thought. Trump’s apologists come up with a myriad of reasons as to why he disparages our closest allies and cheers our enemies. He is a businessman. He knows the art of the deal. He is trying to get the EU to step up. It is part of “America First.” Blah, blah blah.

Of course, I am not on the inside so I do not know what takes place behind closed doors but here is what I think. There are only two conceivable scenarios at this point as to why Trump is turning our country over to Putin. The first is that he is actually an agent for Putin. He is trying to destroy our country from within (via Musk and his DOGE bros running amok) and without (throwing our allies under the bus). The Russians cannot believe their great fortune in his returning to the presidency. They are getting a great return on their investment. Can I prove this? Of course not. But there have been rumors since the 1980s that Trump was compromised and groomed to at least be sympathetic to Russia. Given his intellectual and psychological vulnerabilities, and his weakness for flattery, this is not too far fetched. Several uncorroborated reports have had at least four separate former KGB agents at different times reveal that there was a KGB operation, run by the then Czechoslovakian intelligence service, to groom him as a Russian supporter. It is known that many of his real estate deals were with Russian oligarchs buying properties at inflated prices. His first campaign manager Paul Manafort had known ties to Russian oligarchs and intelligence agents. All that said, this to me is the least likely of the options.

It is more likely that he has some simplistic medieval grand view where rich and powerful kings rule the world and their subjects show absolute fealty to him and carry out his every whim. He needs only confer with his fellow “kings” in Russia and China to decide how they will divide the world. Thus we do not need a federal civil service, the king and his lords will run the country. He does not need allies because he consorts with his fellow kings. Rich and powerful men know what is best. What is good for the king is good for the state. “L’etat, c’est moi” — “I am the state” — as King Louis XIV of France is said to have told the French parliament in 1655. In other words, he is an absolute monarch with complete power and not subject to Constitutional limitations. While some of you may think that I am stretching the analogy, and I doubt that Trump knows who Louis XIV was and wouldn’t care anyway, he is approaching his presidency as if he is the absolute ruler. As the absolute ruler he only needs to confer with other absolute rulers.

Whether or not he succeeds with this approach to governing, we will find out. What I am arguing is that this is his mind set and thus he acts in the ways that he does. As I have written in this space countless times, autocrats always tell you what they are going to do. They don’t always succeed, but they are going to try. Trump is telling us exactly what he wants to do and unlike in his first term, he has people around him that are willing to do it.

This is dangerous for many reasons, of course. In this particular case, and what President Zelenskyy was trying to tell Trump, is that he can not trust Putin. Once America repudiates our allies and removes itself from participation with our allies in NATO and elsewhere, Putin and Xi Jinping of China will work together to bring us to our knees. This is one of the things that infuriated Trump during the meeting. Mr. Zelenskyy told Trump that the U.S now “has a nice ocean” to protect us against Russia so we don’t “feel” Russian pressure or threats, but that “you will feel it in the future.” Trump exploded and said “don’t tell us what we’re going to feel.” Completely missing the point, but then he is not that sharp and he is intellectually uncurious. Flattery gets you everything with Trump. He is an easy mark for Putin and Xi who have been in this game for a long time.

The idea of the world being divided into “kingdoms” fits nicely with the Project 2025 playbook being implemented throughout the government as I write. Trump’s world view, Musk’s world view and that of the Project 2025 folks is that rich, powerful men became that way — became “kings” of their domains — because they are smarter and more ruthless and more capable than the rest of us. Therefore it is only logical that they should be in charge. This view is manifesting itself in the foreign policy arena with Ukraine as the example. Ukraine is relatively weak, especially compared to Russia, therefore they should submit and give Russia whatever they want in order to bring “peace” and “save lives.” Of course the Butcher of Bucha will only torture, rape and murder the good citizens of Ukraine should Putin take over.

Remember the day that it all changed. Even if Trump’s plans are thwarted, it will take a generation of hard work before our allies will ever trust us again.

The Beacon Of Democracy Is Dimming

Posted: February 25, 2025 | Author: | Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

The past few days have been tumultuous for those of us that pay attention to the systematic demolishing of the democratic norms we took for granted just a few weeks ago. In the past few days an unelected South African “adviser” to the president accelerated the use of a wrecking ball to attack our proud and dedicated civil servants, senior military officers were fired because of the color of their skin or their gender, the United States of America joined North Korea, Russia, Belarus, and others to vote in the United Nations against a resolution condemning the Russian invasion of Ukraine and instead continued to claim Ukraine caused the war, and the President of these United States called the President of France a liar to his face during an Oval Office press gathering when President Macron tried to set the record straight concerning aid to Ukraine. That’s a lot and it is only the tip of the iceberg.

As Elon Musk and his DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency) henchmen continue to decimate the federal government, our fellow citizens are beginning to understand what is going on and are pushing back against their elected representatives in town hall meetings across the country. Officials in both “blue” districts and “red” ones are feeling the heat. So far, the opposition to the drastic cuts has had little impact. Trump, MAGA acolytes and Musk will continue to decimate the federal government. They fundamentally do not care what happens to the people serving in the jobs, the harm caused by closing down federal funding or any other second or third order impacts caused by their reckless behavior. Their goal is to establish an autocracy run by techno-bros and other rich white men. End of discussion. This is Project 2025 in all of its dimensions.

The budding autocrats are making great progress. Already the Department of Justice (DOJ) and Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) are under the control of MAGA and are ready to wreak havoc on those that oppose Trump. The contagion is now spreading to the Department of Defense (DOD). The Secretary of Defense (SECDEF) Pete Hegseth, under orders from Trump although I am sure SECDEF would have done it anyway, fired the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General C.Q. Brown (a black man), Chief of Naval Operations Admiral Lisa Franchetti (a woman), the Vice Chief of Staff of the Air Force General James Slife (a white man that was too “woke”), Lt. General Jennifer Short (a woman) the Senior Military Aide to SECDEF, and Judge Advocate Generals (JAGs) of the Army, Air Force and Navy. On his second day in office, Trump had the Commandant of the Coast Guard fired, Admiral Linda Fagan (a woman). The JAGs were fired, according to SECDEF, because they were “roadblocks” to doing what he wanted. In other words, they had too much integrity to allow SECDEF or the Commander-in-Chief to do whatever they wanted to do when it includes illegal or unethical activity. Danger, danger! Pete Hegseth, then a Fox News host, was instrumental in getting Trump, during his first term, to pardon war criminals. In November of 2019, Trump pardoned two Army officers for the murder of civilians in Afghanistan and promoted a Navy SEAL after a court martial stripped him of his rank for similar charges.

The flag and general officers fired last Friday were considered DEI (diversity, equity, inclusion) hires. Even though General Brown was appointed as Chief of Staff of the Air Force during Trump’s first administration. (President Biden promoted him to be CJCS.) This, of course, disregards their decades of service and their proven track record in command at all levels of the military. They proved themselves in tough, demanding jobs. It is an insult to believe that they only attained their positions because of their “woke” ideologies or because a political party wanted to promote people only because of some vague idea about affirmative action. What they are really saying is that only white men are qualified to lead our country and that only white men can be warriors. (Hegseth is qualified? Meritocracy my …) (For an excellent breakdown of the mind set of the current administration and advocates of Project 2025, I recommend reading the article in The Atlantic magazine by Adam Serwer The Great Resegregation found here.)

Senior officers serve at the discretion of the president. However, their terms of office are meant to straddle different administrations in order to provide stability and experience to protect our national security. Even more distressing, the president is nominating retired Lt. General Dan Cane, USAF for the position of Chairman. According to U.S. law (title 10 Part I, chapter 5) the Chairman must have previously served as the Vice Chairman, Chief of a military branch, or the commander of a unified or specified command — all are four star (General or Admiral) positions. Lt. General Cane has never been in any of those positions and never achieved the rank of a four star. Title 10 does provide for a deviation from these requirements if it is “in the national interest.” I would argue that there is no compelling reason today to deviate from the law unless the president and SECDEF want someone that is willing to do whatever they want them to do, including illegal or unethical behavior. I do not know Lt. General Cane so I will not impugn his character, but let us just note that something fishy is going on here. Just as those flag and general officers that were fired were the product of the military system that produces non-political officers that have an oath only to the Constitution I want to believe that officers promoted to fill the vacated positions have an allegiance only to their duty under the Constitution and not fealty to one man. Time will tell.

The loss of American leadership was on full display yesterday in the United Nations when the U.S. supported Russian ideals rather than traditional American support for democracy. On the third anniversary of the full scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, the U.S. joined Russia in the U.N. General Assembly to vote against a resolution condemning Russia’s aggression and calling for an end to the war with a full withdrawal of Russian troops. It was an extraordinary turn of events as much of the world voted in favor of the European based resolution. In other words, we turned against our own allies to support Russia. The President of the United States continues to say that the war is Ukraine’s fault and that its leader President Zelenskyy is a dictator. It is not only embarrassing, it is frightening. It signals that our president is a pawn in Russian President Vladimir Putin’s hand. Russia’s invasion is the largest ground war in Europe since World War II. The purpose of the U.N. and its charter is to protect the territorial integrity of sovereign nations. Apparently, we no longer support democracies around the world and find it totally acceptable for large countries to invade smaller ones. Everyone wants the killing to stop. The losses on both sides are catastrophic. But the current administration fails to understand that this war could stop tomorrow if Russia withdrew its invading force. Simple. Instead, Trump wants to stand proudly with a designated war criminal who favors murder, rape, and indiscriminate destruction of civilian targets.

Continuing to show his willful ignorance and lack of shame, Trump added insult to injury by telling lie after lie about the war and the circumstances around it while in a meeting in the Oval Office with French President Macron. When President Macron corrected him in front of the press corps, Trump’s body language was very telling, as well as what he actually said about President Macron’s statement. The discussion concerned Trump’s desire to get rare minerals from Ukraine to “pay back” the aid provided. (Roughly 75% of the aid we give to Ukraine actually stays in the U.S. as the money is used to buy U.S. ammunition, weapons and other military equipment. Trump also greatly exaggerates the amount of that aid.) He went on to claim that the Europeans have already been reimbursed. President Macron interrupted him to fact check him that, in fact, the Europeans have not been reimbursed. At the end, Trump told the press that they can believe those “lies” from President Macron if they want to. A great statesman.

In all, everyday we see how unqualified Trump and key members of his administration are in trying to keep our country economically strong and our country secure. Through design and malfeasance our great democracy is slowly crumbling. Trump has consolidated the centers of power in our government as he purges the Pentagon. The pillars of an autocratic government are nearly in place. Congress is missing in action. So far, the courts are holding firm as our last great hope. My view is that Trump thinks that he will eventually prevail in the Supreme Court as they will side with his idea of the unitary executive and Trump will use it to quash any remaining resistance. I hope I am wrong, but to date, they are succeeding. Given that he is a convicted felon that already tried to overthrow the country, there is no reason to think that he does not intend to become an autocrat.

Shameful? Disgraceful? Or Both?

Posted: February 20, 2025 | Author: | Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

In case you missed it, over roughly the last seven days the convicted felon and 47th president of the United States reversed 80 years of U.S. foreign policy that preserved our security and prosperity at home and allowed the world to enjoy the benefits of a largely peaceful framework for international relations. You may have been too busy following the antics of King Trump (so self designated yesterday) and President Musk as they decimate the federal civil service across the country from the Gulf of Mexico to Denali, Alaska. (Contrary to popular belief, only about 13% of the federal work force is in the Washington DC metro area, 83% is spread around the country and 2% is overseas).

In his incessant effort to please Russian President Vladimir Putin, Trump and his kakistocracy betrayed Ukraine, salvaged Russia from the isolation it deserves, signaled our withdrawal from NATO and encouraged China, Russia and Iran to expand their influence and control. That’s a lot — let’s break it down.

As we approach the third anniversary of the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, a quick reminder as to the chain of events is in order. When the Soviet Union collapsed, about a third of the Soviet’s nuclear weapons were in Ukraine which emerged as an independent state. Under the 1991 security guarantees of Russia, the U.S. and the United Kingdom, Ukraine’s borders were recognized and guaranteed in exchange for relinquishing those nuclear weapons. After Putin emerged as the leader of the “new” Russia, he worked continuously to promote pro-Russian leadership in Ukraine. As a gateway to the rest of Europe, Ukraine was caught between pro-Russian and pro-western European influences. In 2014, Ukrainians revolted and drove out the pro-Russian leader Victor Yanukovych. That prompted Putin to invade Crimea, a part of Ukraine, and annex it. Putin also encouraged and supplied pro-Russian forces in eastern Ukraine to take and hold territory. A simmering war continued there until early 2022 when the full scale Russian invasion began. Note that the quasi-war in Ukraine was underway during Trump’s first term. Also remember that Vololdymyr Zelensky defeated a pro-Russian politician for president in April of 2020. That July, Trump called President Zelensky to push for an investigation into Hunter Biden and his father Joe Biden who Trump correctly expected to be his opponent for president. President Zelensky refused, Trump withheld money appropriated for Ukraine, and the situation led to Trump’s first impeachment.

Strike one against Ukraine. Trump does hold grudges.

During his 2020 campaign, Trump declared that he would end the war in Ukraine on “day one.” Sure. Now he sees it as his mission. However, he is not trying to solve it on terms favorable to Ukraine, but rather to please his old buddy Vladimir Putin. Reportedly, Trump and Putin talked for about 90 minutes last week, the first official diplomatic contact between the U.S. and Russia since the invasion three years ago and afterwards, everything changed.

Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth gave a speech in Europe during an international conference on Ukraine where he clearly stated that it was “unrealistic” for Ukraine to expect to return to its pre-2014 borders, and that it “is not realistic” for Ukraine to join NATO. So much for the art of the deal when before the negotiating even starts, one side concedes to the other everything that they want. Additionally Hegseth (is he really the Secretary of Defense?) told our European allies that the U.S. would no longer safeguard the security of Europe as the U.S. “will no longer tolerate an imbalanced relationship” with our European allies. Indeed, if the Europeans deployed troops into Ukraine to provide for guarantees to protect Ukrainian sovereignty under a future deal, the U.S. would not consider it a NATO mission and therefore there would be no Article Five guarantees from the U.S. Article Five is the key to NATO’s effectiveness. It states that an attack on one member is considered an attack on all and that all members would respond militarily. Without that iron clad commitment from all members of NATO, the alliance is weakened, perhaps fatally weakened. Article Five has been invoked only once — by the U.S. following the attacks on September 11.

Vice President J.D. Vance, the embodiment of the Project 2025 playbook, then gave a speech during the annual Munich Security Conference — meeting to discuss Ukraine and NATO defense spending — that blasted and scolded our closest allies for allowing migration from the Middle East and Africa into Europe and claiming that they violated their democratic values by inhibiting free speech. What he was really attacking was the European’s efforts to counter misinformation, disinformation and outright lies perpetrated by one Elon Musk (yes that same guy) in an attempt to sway voters in several European elections to vote for the hard right parties in those countries. His speech came straight out of the Project 2025 playbook. To further insult our allies, Vance then met with the leader of the far right neo-Nazi German party Alternative fur Deutschland (AfD) rather than with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, A clear signal from the Trump administration as to their future vision and undisguised disdain for our allies.

While all of that was happening, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent met President Zelensky in Kyiv whose purpose, much to the Ukrainians surprise, was to demand that President Zelensky sign a document that gives fifty percent (about 500 million dollars) of Ukraine’s rare earth minerals to the U.S. When President Zelensky hesitated, Bessent gave him one hour to change his mind and sign or there would be repercussions. President Zelensky did not sign. The current status of this demand is unknown.

Strike two against Ukraine. Another grudge.

The U.S. then held bilateral meetings with Russia in Saudi Arabia (hmmm) about the war in Ukraine. This was a huge diplomatic achievement for Russia as the meeting was a sign that Russia “was back” – on an equal footing with the U.S. and once again a player on the international stage after years of isolation. Another victory for Russia in these negotiations. So far, Russia has given up nothing in return.

Oh yeah. Ukraine was not invited to the discussions about its future and neither were our European allies even though they obviously have a huge stake in the outcome.

Afterwards, President Zelensky opined that Trump was living in a “Russian disinformation bubble” and added that Ukraine was not for sale.

Strike three against Ukraine. Trump went ballistic.

In a series of public statements, Trump did what he does best. He lied and lied and lied. (Check his lies and the facts here.) Worst of all, he said that Ukraine started the war. Then he called President Zelensky a “moderately successful comedian” (ouch) who is now a “dictator.” Things went down hill from there. Trump is demanding that Ukraine take steps that fall completely within the Russian game plan to take over in Ukraine.

There are several possible scenarios playing out, none of them good for Ukraine or Europe or for our own national security and economic success. Trump is incapable of strategic thinking and only knows transactional relationships. Therefore one possibility is that, once again, Trump’s fragile ego and need to be respected, at any cost, is wounded. President Zelensky and European leaders have had, in his mind, a free ride for too long and now that he’s the new sheriff in town he wants instant respect and a lot of dollars coming to us (him). He simply cannot grasp the big picture that we benefit more from these alliances and our support of other democracies than it costs us. (See the destruction of the U.S. Agency for International Development that provided valuable support to our own national interests at very low cost. Not to mention the U.S. farmers and suppliers that sell the goods and services.)

A second possibility is that he actually believes that he alone can solve the war in Ukraine. He has always been enamored of Putin and here is Trump’s chance to show that he can deal with him. Of course, we all know that Putin is a master of manipulation. Trump doesn’t even know that he is being taken for a ride. If Putin gets what he wants in Ukraine, I fear for the Baltic states and Poland as they will be next on Putin’s list. And in the not so distant future. Remember that in a 2005 speech to the Russian people, Putin said that the collapse of the Soviet Union “was the greatest geo-political catastrophe of the [20th] century.” He is on a mission from God (literally if you read about him) to restore the Russian empire.

A third possibility is that Trump (well, those around him) have a geo-political vision that is in a way a reversion to the cold war. The “great powers” — U.S., Russia, China — divide up the world into spheres of influence. This would fit into his phantasmagoric ideas of annexing Canada, Greenland and Panama. It would also fit the vision of the Project 2025 folks and Musk and others that the world should be run by rich white men who create Christian white nationalist nations around the globe.

Whatever the motivation, the world is on notice that the United States is no longer the leader of the free world, or any world except the United States. Good luck everyone else. If Trump succeeds in giving Ukraine to Russia, it will mean hundreds of thousands of refugees pouring into western Europe (destabilizing them internally), cost thousands of lives, lead to arbitrary executions, torture and rape and eliminate a democracy and friend. It also gives Russia a green light for further territorial gains and lets China know that we will not protect Taiwan or any other Asian country.

It will be shameful and disgraceful. Not only does it undermine our long held and deeply cherished view of our role in the world and our ability to promote democracy but such actions will endanger our own security and prosperity. We will not be safe. So far, Trump has received nearly zero pushback from formerly respected leaders of the former Republican party. The world that we have cherished for eight decades will be gone and in its place will be a new world that would be impossible to imagine just a few months ago.

“So What?”

Posted: October 13, 2024 | Author: | Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: , , , , , , | Leave a comment

On 2 October 2024, Judge Tanya Chutkan of the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia released a 165 page indictment brought by Special Prosecutor Jack Smith in response to Donald J. Trump’s attempts to overturn the 2020 election. This is a superseding indictment replacing a previous indictment following the Supreme Court’s decision that presidents are immune from prosecution when acting in an “official capacity.” Mr. Smith responded to that decision by arguing that Trump acted in his capacity as a candidate, not as a president, and therefore he should be held accountable for his actions. Note that the federal judge released the previously sealed indictment, not the Special Prosecutor or the Justice Department, despite accusations from Trump and his MAGA acolytes.

Most of Trump’s actions leading up to the attempted coup of 6 January 2021 are already known to us in broad terms thanks to the work of the House Select January 6 Committee. The latest indictment contains information previously unknown to the public and reveals the full extent of Trump’s efforts to overturn the election, starting before voting was underway. It was a vast, multi-pronged effort at polling places, election offices, state capitals, in the U.S. House and Senate and finally through the violent attack on our nation’s capitol. The details are sobering. (Read it here.) In step by step detail, the indictment lays out Trump’s actions and the actions of those, mostly out of government accomplices, that worked to overturn the election. It lays out a timeline of events on 6 January with comparisons of specific events detailed on Fox News and Trump’s subsequent tweets, many of which were aimed at Vice President Mike Pence. When a White House staffer informed Trump that his Vice President was in grave danger (“Hang Mike Pence!”) and had been evacuated from the capitol his response was “so what?” Trump took no action to stop the violence.

“So what?”

To me that response is the essence of Trump. He cares nothing about anyone or anything unless there is a direct benefit to him personally. In his current campaign his willingness to hurt, defame or endanger innocent people has become increasingly obvious, less shielded in double speak and exceedingly dangerous.

There is every reason to believe that Trump will try to overturn any election result that does not declare him the winner. This time around, he has a willing accomplice in his Vice Presidential nominee Senator J.D. Vance (OH). Trump and Vance continue to reject the 2020 election results and to cast doubt on the 2024 election. Indeed, it has become a litmus test for MAGA supporters and politicians. One must reject the 2020 election in order to be a full fledged member of the MAGA cult. Four years later, the numbers of people claiming election fraud continues to grow rather than recede. As a result, the MAGA campaign, and those of others down ballot, are becoming increasingly autocratic, bordering on fascism, with political violence as an ever increasing subcurrent of the rhetoric. Trump’s language is openly racist, misogynistic, and antisemitic. He is dangerous.

With the election just over three weeks away, I am increasingly fearful for our democracy. If Trump wins, we are in big trouble. If he loses a closely contested result, we are in big trouble. The attempts to undermine our democracy are already underway. Consider the following few examples:

  • Filing lawsuits in Pennsylvania, Michigan and North Carolina brought by Republican organizations and politicians seeking to disallow ballots cast by American citizens living overseas. The law known as the Uniformed and Overseas Citizens Absentee Voting Act (UOCAVA) lays out the method for U.S. citizens living abroad to vote, and includes our military forces and their families whether overseas or otherwise away from their home states. Trump claims that this act is a plot by Democrats to “cheat” and collect illegal votes. He is trying to disenfranchise our men and women in uniform to increase his perceived chances of winning.
  • Claiming that “illegal aliens” are swarming across the border to vote for Democrats in the election. As a result, multiple states passed laws that resulted in thousands of eligible voters being purged from voting lists and enacted voting requirements that disenfranchised many Americans, especially in low income areas. It is against the law for non-citizens to vote in any federal election. The number of cases prosecuted in the U.S. is statistically zero, meaning single digit cases in some states.
  • Pushing state legislatures and courts to reject mail-in ballots. In some states, such as Pennsylvania, election officials accept ballots with minor clerical errors. The Republicans say this illegal. Similar efforts are underway in Georgia, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Michigan. Democrats tend to use mail-in ballots more than Republicans. (I assume it is only a coincidence that these states are critical to Republicans winning the election.)

I can go on, but you get the idea. Here is the MAGA game plan as I see it.

First, challenge everything in courts. Many, many lawsuits in addition to the ones above are underway. The intent? Suppress the vote. No Republican has won the popular vote since George H.W. Bush in 1988 with the exception of George H. Bush in 2004. Trump has a ceiling on the number of votes he is likely to get, with a two time track record to prove it, so instead of getting more voters to support him, eliminate the opposition.

Second, intimidate voters in likely Democrat precincts through implicit or direct threats of violence in order to lower voter turnout. In some areas I expect to see armed Trump supporters loitering near polling places.

Third, put Trump supporters on local, county and state election boards to disrupt the counting of votes, challenge their legitimacy and ultimately to delay or outright refuse certification of the results.

Third, use state legislatures to tie up certification of election results or to even ignore the results and use alternate electors dedicated to Trump. They tried this in 2020 and failed. They have worked out the kinks.

Fourth, use Trump’s useful idiots in the House and Senate to disrupt the final certification of the results. The effort, also attempted in 2020, is to throw the election into the House. Under the Constitution, each state gets one vote. That means that Montana, with one Representative, gets the some number of votes as New York with twenty six Representatives. Currently, there are more states with Republican delegations than Democratic ones, which is likely to hold, even if the Democrats win the majority in the House overall. This is not some theoretical outcome. It was and is part of the plan. It happened once in our history. Following the 1824 election, Andrew Jackson had the most electoral and popular votes but not a majority. The vote went to the House and the second place finisher, John Quincy Adams, was elected president.

Meanwhile, Trump is using ever more autocratic tactics and vile rhetoric to undermine the public’s trust in the federal government. He and his mini-me J.D. Vance are spreading despicable lies about the hurricane recovery efforts, legal migrants in Ohio, and the citizens of Aurora Colorado to make it seem as if the government is either out of control or actually aiding and abetting illegal activity. The purpose is to sow further divisions in our country and for people to expect the worst. When it all goes haywire leading to, during, and after the election, Trump and Vance will step up as “saviors” to take over and use their “strongman” tactics to “protect” us. During Trump’s alleged seven phone calls with Vladimir Putin over the last few years while out of office, he may have been getting pointers on how to take over a government.

One area that will differ in the Trump/MAGA totalitarian playbook regards attacks on the U.S. capitol. I doubt we will see another January 6 attack in 2025 in Washington D.C. The city will be an armed camp this time around with very, very, tight security. I do expect there to be attempts at violence and other efforts to disrupt the peaceful transfer of power. I think they will be more geographically scattered but potentially even more disruptive. The attacks will come in large cities, especially with large numbers of minority voters, at locations collecting and counting ballots. Perhaps also against county and state election boards. Several state capitals will be targets as domestic terrorists attempt to change or prevent the certification of ballots. I fear we are in for a tough go of it.

So what? Lighten up, you may tell me. The U.S. is fine and we will all be okay. The guardrails of democracy will hold. The sky is not falling. I hope so, but I believe what Trump, Vance and their minions are saying. They have come to believe what they are spouting. We always hope for the best. But we need to prepare for the worst. Most demoralizing and frightening is the willingness of formerly main stream Republican politicians and leaders to just go along. There is very little to no pushback from Republicans in Congress or in state legislatures regarding Trump’s vile plans and increasingly unhinged behavior. The man is becoming delusional and people I used to think were smart and cared about our country pretend that it is not happening or have actually gotten onboard with the lies.

We can save ourselves with an overwhelming vote in support of the coalition of Republicans, Democrats and Independents that want to preserve our democracy and are voting for Vice President Kamala Harris. There are several hundred former Republican and Trump Administration senior officials who have put aside their policy differences in order to keep our democracy. Take a look at the list. It includes two Republican Vice Presidents (Mike Pence — who refuses to support his old boss — and Dick Cheney), Trump’s former Secretary of Defense, two of his former National Security Advisers, his Chief of Staff, his Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, his Director of National Intelligence, former cabinet officials, security officials, ambassadors, generals, admirals, and on and on. These are the people that Trump claimed were “the very best people” who saw him up close and personal and do not want him anywhere near the White House ever again. We can overcome the efforts of the autocrats to install Trump as the Dear Leader. Every vote counts. Let’s keep our democracy.

The End Of A Peaceful World Order?

Posted: February 19, 2024 | Author: | Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

“No, I would not protect you. In fact, I would encourage them to do whatever the hell they want. You gotta pay. You gotta pay your bills.”

— Donald J. Trump at a campaign rally in Conway, South Carolina referring to another member of NATO threatened by a hypothetical Russian attack.

In recent days there have been both unserious and serious attacks on the stability of our national security policies and the international norms that have helped to stabilize the world order for nearly 75 years. The unserious attack is the foolishness surrounding the Republican majority in the House of Representatives impeachment (by one vote, on their second try) of Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas. According to the Articles of Impeachment Secretary Mayorkas “willfully and systematically failed to comply with immigration laws” and therefore “demonstrated that he will remain a threat to national and border security.” Three House Republicans voted against the impeachment and numerous prominent Senate Republicans considered the entire process to be a sham, including Senator Kevin Kramer (ND), a Trump ally, who called it “the worst, dumbest exercise and waste of time.” The House has passed nearly nothing else of significance during this session and recessed for a two week vacation after the impeachment vote without taking up important and substantive bills regarding our national security. By all objective accounts, this was purely a political stunt to satisfy the radical extremists in the Republican Party and to assuage Trump. Secretary Mayorkas will almost certainly be acquitted in the Senate, if they even hold a trial. (They may refer it to committee for investigation and never have it come forward.)

The serious attack is courtesy of Trump and his MAGA acolytes in the House. During his first term, Trump continually threatened to leave NATO. He is reported to have told the president of the European Commission in 2020 that “NATO is dead” and that the U.S. would “never” come to help Europe were it under attack. He reiterated his 2018 threat to quit NATO. His remarks in South Carolina continue to reflect his disdain for treaties and alliances as well as his ignorance on how they work.

Perhaps a little background will help. As we know, NATO was formed in 1949 to counter the threat to Europe from the Soviet Union. The original twelve members consisted of European and North American countries resolved to stop Soviet expansion in Europe. Today it consists of 31 countries — soon to be 32 when Sweden joins this year — allied in a mutual defense pact. NATO has taken on political and economic roles over the decades, in addition to its core as a military alliance. Despite the MAGA and Trump criticisms that many NATO countries do not pay their “dues,” NATO is not a club and the members do not pay dues. There are some cost sharing administrative expenses and enrichment funds but the reality — and what the MAGA crowd is talking about — is that each country pledged to spend at least 2% of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on its own defense. Throughout its existence, not all nations met that obligation. Several past presidents pushed European nations to meet that goal. In 2014 under President Obama the organization agreed that countries not spending 2% of GDP would start increasing their defense budgets. Today, 18 nations meet or exceed (by the end of the year) the 2% goal. We must also be realistic about which countries can meet the requirement. Countries such as Luxembourg and Iceland with small populations and small defense forces are unlikely to ever meet that goal. It helps to know what you are talking about.

NATO is not some kind of protection racket where you “gotta” pay the U.S. or we won’t help you. “Nice little country you’ve got there. It would be a shame if something happened to it.”

The heart and soul of NATO is found in Article Five of the North Atlantic Treaty. The article requires every member of NATO to come to the aid of any other member subjected to an armed attack. Article Five has been invoked only once, by the U.S. after the attacks of 11 September 2001. Significant numbers of forces were deployed by eighteen NATO countries under NATO command in the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan. Several countries suffered killed and wounded in combat. They were there for us when we needed them. Without Article Five, the alliance has no teeth and becomes worthless. This is the heart of Trump’s declaration that he won’t help our allies if attacked.

This time, he took it a step further.

Trump went beyond his threat to standby and watch when other countries were attacked. He openly encouraged the Russian dictator Vladimir Putin to “do whatever the hell they want.” He invited Russia to attack a NATO ally. As a long time student of national security affairs, and in my career I worked these issues, I never could have imagined that a President of the United States would invite a foreign dictator to attack a democratic ally. Inconceivable. Yet, I have every reason to believe that he means it.

Some Republicans in the Congress are confident that he does not mean it, or at least that’s what they tell themselves. I am not sure why they say that, but here is the practical truth of it. In 2023 the National Defense Authorization Act included a provision that a president cannot withdraw from NATO without approval from the Senate or an Act of Congress. An elegant solution, heh? Not really. Trump, or someone like him, would not have to actually withdraw from NATO. As Commander-in-Chief he would only have to decide that the U.S. will not send or use military forces in support of the attacked country. The provision is only a feel good exercise with no practical aspect to it. I have no doubt that Trump could care less what a provision in the NDA says.

Moving beyond the promised future actions of a presidential candidate, there are practical ramifications right now. Besides signaling to Putin, Xi and Kim that they only have to wait out the current administration and hope for a Trump victory to do what they want, Trump’s MAGA supporters in the House are holding up aid to Ukraine, Taiwan, Israel and humanitarian relief in Gaza because he told them to do so. They bend their knee to Trump and he in turn bends his knee to Putin. Ukraine is suffering terrible losses. No one that knows what they are talking about thinks that Putin will stop in Ukraine. If Kyiv falls, others, primarily Poland and the Baltic States, will be in his sights. Without NATO to deter him, Putin will act. To him, the greatest tragedy of the 20th century was the break up of the USSR. He clearly espouses his desire to reconstitute it. The only thing in his way is NATO. And let’s be clear, many European nations have professional, effective, tough-as-nails military forces. But they would be no match for the Russians. Not because of their fighting ability — we have seen in Ukraine that the Russian Army and Navy are not the unbeatable foes they were made out to be — but because Russia is a large country with lots of people and resources to throw into the breach. They would eventually win by attrition as Napoleon and Hitler learned the hard way. This is what is happening in Ukraine. The Ukrainians have proven over the last two years that they are a formidable foe. But without NATO support — including from the U.S. — they will be attrited and defeated. Russia has already committed terrible atrocities against Ukrainian civilians. Putin is a convicted war criminal. Imagine the death and destruction when he unleashes his forces to wreak retribution against those that dared oppose him in an occupied Ukraine.

Speaker Mike Johnson (MAGA-LA) is an extraordinarily weak Speaker of the House who was thrown into a job he is ill-prepared to fill. Mr. Johnson takes his orders from Trump and Trump does not want to support Ukraine. He is a fanboy of Putin (one wonders why he prefers Putin over his own country, but that is a topic for another day). The Senate passed a bipartisan bill providing the desperately needed aid. The Speaker refuses to bring it to the House floor, even though all knowledgeable participants are convinced that it would pass on a bipartisan basis. Mr. Johnson claims we need to secure our border before providing aid to others, even as he refuses to bring a bill to the floor that was considered the best improvement to border security and immigration rules in decades. The hypocrisy is off the charts. Unfortunately, there is no shame anymore in the MAGA Republican Party, only loyalty to Trump.

Look. Let’s lay it on the line. Biden vs Trump is a referendum on the future of democracy in the United States and our future role in a rules based international society. Trump’s “America First” motto was originally the motto of the isolationists and Nazi supporters in the U.S. prior to World War II. Just like today, there were massive rallies, in the 1930s it was to promote fascism. In the U.S., German supporters formed the German American Bund as a cover to promote policies favorable to Nazi Germany. Tens of thousands of Americans joined. There were about 20 youth training camps to raise future fascists. In 1939 the organization held a rally in Madison Square Garden where over 20,000 people gathered to denounce “Jewish conspiracies” fomented by President Franklin Roosevelt and to support Nazi Germany. There are too many similarities to today for me to think that Trump is bluffing or just playing to the crowd. He means what he says.

Hitler vowed to invade Czechoslovakia in 1938. Desperate to avoid another world war, British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain met in Munich with Hitler, Benito Mussolini, and French president Edouard Daladier and agreed to the fascist’s demands. He declared that he achieved “peace for our time.” He hoped that Hitler would be satisfied. We know the rest of that story. If we give in to Putin in Ukraine, we know the rest of this story as well.

We Must Continue to Stand With Ukraine

Posted: December 27, 2022 | Author: | Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: , , , | 1 Comment

“Your money is not charity. It is an investment in the global security and democracy that we handle in the most responsible way.”

—Volodymyr Zelenskyy in a speech to a Joint Session of Congress on 21 December 2022

As we celebrate the holidays and look toward a new year, it is important to remember that the war in Ukraine continues. This is day 307 since the Russian invasion in February. Fierce fighting continues in eastern Ukraine and the entire country is subject to air raids from missiles, drones and artillery. While the Ukrainians continue to fight with courage, tenacity and ability, they are still outnumbered and with fewer technologically advanced weapons than their Russian counterparts. It is a a brutal war.

Recently, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that he will send 500,000 additional troops to the Ukrainian front. Such numbers are staggering and could easily overwhelm the Ukrainians on the ground. That is until we pull back the curtain and it reveals that most of the 500,000 are conscripts off the street and, literally, convicts recruited from prisons throughout Russia. They are sent to fight with little or no training and often suffer from lack of adequate weapons, winter clothing and food. Such is the Russian way of war. Even their most vaunted Army units are in trouble as outlined by a recent article in the Washington Post. The “200th Separate Motor Rifle Brigade” was considered one of the most elite units in the Russian military. Originally tasked with protecting the nuclear missile submarines of the Russian Navy based in the far northern Kola Peninsula, since the end of the Cold War, the “200th” was often tasked to take on some of the Russian military’s toughest assignments. Last February, they were among the lead elements of the invasion tasked with taking Kharkiv. Since then, their staggering losses of experienced personnel and of state of the art equipment leaves them, in the estimation of several European intelligence assessments, in such a state that it “cannot be considered a fighting force.”

The Russians are losing the ground war. Unfortunately, Mr. Putin is determined to continue the fight. His goal seems to be the total obliteration of Ukrainian culture, quality of life, and the civilian population. In the dark of winter, the fighting on the front will continue with heavy casualties on both sides while attaining only minor tactical advantages. Operationally and strategically, the winter fighting will remain stagnant.

The result? Nearly daily Russian terrorist attacks on civilians in Ukraine. If he cannot win on the battle field, Mr. Putin will punish the civilian population. Terrorism is the only way to describe the continued attacks on schools, hospitals, museums, power stations and water plants. Mr. Putin is determined to destroy the will of the Ukrainians to resist. Clearly, he has never studied history if he believes that a reign of terror descending from the skies will turn the tide of war. He obviously never studied Britain’s response to the intense bombing of World War II, his own nation’s resistance in that same war to the Germans in Leningrad or Stalingrad, or countless other stories of a determined population strengthening their resistance to tyranny while under relentless attack.

Mr. Zelenskyy was in Washington D.C. last week to convey directly to the U.S. Congress and to all of us as citizens that Ukraine will not fall to Russian aggression. They are unwavering in their determination. But they need continued help from the U.S. and NATO and Mr. Zelenskyy was here to make sure that we do not get weak-kneed in our support. With the swearing in of a new Congress in January, numerous MAGA Republicans are pushing to end, or at least severely restrict, the aid we send to Ukraine. (Incredibly, some are open admirers of Vladimir Putin — their view of a strong and effective leader.) For the time being, our support of Ukraine continues thanks to the Omnibus Bill passed by the House and Senate as they headed out the door for the holidays. The all encompassing bill (ostensibly a 1.7 trillion dollar spending bill, it is packed with numerous amendments addressing everything from tax law to the Electoral Count Act of 1887) included 45 billion dollars for Ukraine. Thus Mr. Zelenskyy’s statement that this is not charity, it is a fight for the rule of law and the sanctity of democracy. I agree with him.

The war in Ukraine is not some far off, obscure war where the average American could probably not even find it on a map (of course the average American isn’t very good about locating places on a map of the United States). It is nothing less than a line in the sand that western democracies will not see the post World War II world order go up in flames. Ukraine is the first attack on European soil since the 1940s where one country is determined to take over another through military force. The West either believes in supporting democracy or all democracies will be threatened. The Baltic States, Finland, Norway and Sweden certainly understand the stakes due to their borders with Russia. Polish history makes them very aware of the dangers of this Russian threat. This is the biggest test yet as to whether we in the U.S. and NATO believe what we say or whether we are going to look away. Our domestic politics sometimes obscures this point. But if we do not help Ukraine, we may as well tell the world that we are no longer a world player, and China would certainly be glad to hear that as they continue to threaten a peaceful Taiwan.

The size and scope of our support is growing as the conflict continues. The U.S. and NATO are walking a fine line in trying to keep Ukraine in the fight and capable of defending themselves without expanding the war into the rest of Europe. In November, a missile landed in Poland near the Ukrainian border and killed civilian workers. It turned out to be a Ukrainian air defense missile gone astray, but it raised serious concerns as it exemplified a possible Russian provocation. President Joe Biden declared that we will defend every inch of NATO territory. What if the next “stray” missile is Russian and we have the intelligence to support the fact that it was not accidental? Such a scenario will severely test NATO resolve and engender debate as to the appropriate response. (Most likely the response would be measured and on a similar scale, such as a cruise missile slamming into the launch site from which the missile came. The problem, of course, is that a miscalculation or misunderstanding the intent can quickly lead to a massive escalation.)

I have at least two recommendations to move our country’s support of Ukraine to a new level. One is to declare Russia a terrorist state. There is no question that they meet the criteria. The torture, rape, abduction and murder of Ukrainian civilians by Russian soldiers are war crimes. Mr. Putin’s order to indiscriminately bomb cities and towns along with the deliberate targeting of humanitarian facilities are terrorist activities. Car bomb or exploding drone? No difference. To do so incurs certain legal and international actions and the West is not certain how the Russians might respond, as well as concern over the second and third order impacts on our other friends or allies. At this point, it is necessary. Make the proper diplomatic preparations and then do it.

The second game changer would be to give the Ukrainian military offensive weapons. The U.S. and NATO are reluctant to do so in fear that the Russians would see it as provocative and a possible act of war should they be used against the Russian motherland. It is a risk worth taking in my opinion. Through training, effective intelligence to monitor their use, and other measures to modify the weapons the West can minimize the chances that the Ukrainians would misuse the weapons. The rationale for supplying them is that as long as Russia has safe havens for their missile launching aircraft, drones and ships, they run no risk and can fire at will to destroy Ukrainian cities. Bringing Russian logistics hubs, training centers, and bases in occupied Ukrainian territory into the war raises the stakes for the Russian military and contributes to the unmistakable decline in Russian morale. It could help to convince more Russian soldiers to defect or go home (thousands already have), and the increased destruction of the Russian military could lead to increased unrest in Russia, including some in the government that do not want to see their military and economy destroyed because Mr. Putin has some kind of crusader-like vision quest for Ukraine. It is worth the risk.

I am sure that efforts already are under way to curtail third party efforts to supply Russia. Most notably, Iran is sending armed drones in vast numbers for the Russians to use against Ukrainian cities. There is also open source reporting that North Korea is probably supplying Russia with artillery and ammunition for use in the war. The U.S. and other nations have the means to make this too painful for those countries to continue their support. To date, China has not helped Russia militarily. Diplomatic efforts must continue to ensure that they do not do so.

As it is, Mr. Biden promised to send a Patriot missile battery to Ukraine. This is a very advanced air defense system. It will take time for the battery to arrive and for the Ukrainians to get properly trained in its use. Some have criticized the decision as being provocative and could lead to an escalation by the Russians. Not so. As Mr. Biden pointed out, it is a defensive weapons system. It won’t be used unless the Russians continue to attack Ukraine.

To me it is not only important from a geo-strategic viewpoint for the U.S. to continue to support Ukraine. It is in our national interests to help them. It is not an act of “charity” or done at the expense of our own citizens. It is absolutely a case of pay me now or most certainly we will be paying much more later, including with the blood of our sons and daughters.

Trump Must Be Held Accountable

Posted: August 14, 2022 | Author: | Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: , , , , | 1 Comment

Unless you were on vacation on a tropical island last week, you undoubtedly heard about yet another criminal act by the ex-president. Just when you might be thinking that we’ve heard it all, that it is impossible for Donald J. Trump and his wholly owned subsidiary formerly known as the Republican Party to further debase and destroy our nation, we find ourselves shaking our collective heads over another despicable and corrupt violation of our nation’s laws, morals, ethics and sense of duty.

As his actions continue to come to light through the actions of the Department of Justice (DOJ) and the House Select Committee investigating the January 6th insurrection and the conspiracy to overthrow the duly elected president of the United States, one has to wonder why the man is still walking the streets creating hate and discontent throughout the land. He needs to go to jail.

Yes, yes, I know. He is innocent until proven guilty in a court of law following the rules under our system. That said, it is not clear why he has not been arrested and forced to post bail. Were I to have his track record, I know that I would have already taken a “perp walk” into court.

To me, perhaps the most despicable and shameful aspect of the last week was the reaction by nearly every senior elected Republican official in the land. Most of them attacked the FBI and DOJ. Not one that I heard of even took a “wait and see” approach. Instead they followed in Trump’s footsteps and attacked, attacked, attacked — with the vilest and darkest comments imaginable. Do you want an example? How about Senator Rick Scott (Tr-FL) who, following the execution of a court approved search warrant, said; “This should scare the living daylights out of American citizens. The way our federal government has gone, it’s like what we have thought about the Gestapo and people like that — that they just go after people. What we thought about the Soviet Union.” Rick, you make me proud to be an American. Or perhaps the comments from Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene (Tr-GA) — as fine an American as you would ever want to meet — who is yelling to “Defund the FBI.” And in the finest Trumpian way, she is selling caps and t-shirts with that slogan for a mere thirty dollars. I could go on and on, but I would rather not.

For those that have never dealt with material classified Top Secret (TS) or Sensitive Compartmented Information (SCI) you may not understand the impact of Trump’s actions. Not only is the information highly classified, but what is really causing most of those SCI classifications is what is commonly called “sources and methods.” In other words, the way that the information was obtained. Foreign intelligence services receiving such documents could reverse engineer the information in order to find out where it came from. Perhaps it is a highly placed mole. Perhaps it is good old fashioned espionage. Perhaps it is through secret technology capabilities. Or a variety of other sources. The point is, people’s lives may be at stake and the country’s safety and security are certainly at risk by carelessly handling the documents.

I will not go into explaining or rebutting all of the silly excuses that Trump is putting forth and finding support for from his employees in the wholly owned subsidiary. All of it is total fantasy and as big of an unbelievable lie as is possible to concoct. There are no “oops” moments with TS and SCI material. It is always signed for and always guarded. Nearly every time it is created and maintained in a Sensitive Compartmented Information Facility (SCIF). It is not even discussed outside of those facilities. The Oval Office is not a SCIF. The few times it is taken outside of a SCIF, it is signed for, and carried in a special satchel that is literally handcuffed to the courier. Afterwards, it is signed back in. If the same person does not return it and sign it back in, there is big trouble. Like losing your job and going to jail trouble.

The point of bringing this up is that there can be no “accidental” leaving of documents around or just borrowing them for awhile or anything else. Even taking into account that one is dealing with the President of the United States, there would be no chance of a breach.

Unless it was done intentionally.

How was this accomplished? I do not know. I will leave that to the FBI. Just as importantly, why was it done? Again, I do not know, but I will merely state that Trump does nothing that he cannot monetize. The Washington Post reported that at least some of the classified documents had to do with nuclear issues. I will just ponder the fact that during Trump’s administration he and his inner circle, including his son-in-law, wanted to sell nuclear technology to Saudi Arabia. Ostensibly it was for nuclear power plants, but many experts concluded that it could also lead to Saudi Arabia building nuclear weapons. Thankfully, cooler heads in the National Security areas of the government were able to stop such a deal. Coincidentally, after leaving office, Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner landed a two billion dollar deal with the Saudis. Last month the Saudi funded LIV golf tour held a tournament at Trump’s Bedminster course in New Jersey. Could there be a connection? I do not know. People are just asking.

In my opinion the FBI should not be asking what he was going to do with that information but rather what did he already do with it?

There is a larger picture here. Trump clearly cares nothing about the laws, norms or traditions of the United States or what it means to be president. It appears that he thought that as president, he owned the country, everything in it and everyone that worked in the government. Whether his approach was that of an autocrat or a mafia boss does not really matter, he believed that anything he wanted was his. (For the record, I think he operates like a mafia boss. Autocrats at least have an ideological base to operate from. Trump only cares about himself and making money. He has no underlying beliefs, be they good, bad or indifferent. He only cares about what rewards him.)

Trump and his fellow conspirators and abettors should be held to account to the fullest extent of the law. For everything. I think the impeachment charges brought against him were insufficient. By this I mean that twice the House tried to simplify his transgressions to one, easily understandable charge rather than the full breadth and depth of his criminality. They gambled that the public would buy into something that could be easily digested. They also saw as their primary goal to remove the cancer from our government and keep it from ever returning again. They only needed him to be found guilty on one charge. They failed.

The DOJ cannot fail. Trump needs to be stopped. Trumpism will not die if Trump is removed as too many other politicians (especially certain southern governors) have learned his lessons. At least if Trump is indicted, tried and convicted, the leader of the cult will be disgraced and removed. Millions of people will think that it was a kangaroo court and that he was set up. They already think that, so there is nothing to lose by acting and a lot to lose if we do not hold him accountable. Those same politicians taking the mantle of Trumpism will also see that if they become president, they can do whatever they want because there are no consequences. His cult members argue that Trump is the most persecuted president in our history. I want him to be the most prosecuted.

Cries that these actions are unprecedented are true. Primarily because we never had a full scale mafia boss as our president before. But if his home can be raided, then anyone’s can, they cry. Two points. Mar-a-Lago was not just a residence, it was a club. People come and go. Memberships are sold. It is not exactly like the FBI searched a two story colonial on a cul-de-sac. Secondly, yes, if you break the law, conspire to over throw the government, take TS and SCI documents home to your basement, you can probably expect a knock on your door from the FBI. That is the point. No one should be above the law. Not even an ex-president who is now, under the law, just a regular citizen like the rest of us. No magic wands to declassify documents. No thoughts in his head that everyone should instinctively obey. Just follow the law.

I fear for our republic, I fear for our democracy and I fear for our future. Trump and his cult followers and collaborators in Congress are the single greatest domestic threat to our country and our way of life since the Civil War. I am very afraid there will be more domestic political violence. Firing up the cult to attack FBI officers and federal judges is dangerous, as we saw earlier this week in Ohio when one of the cultists tried to kill FBI officers at their area headquarters.

For nearly 22 months now, Trump has been doing his best to destroy this country and make himself the Dear Leader. It is not getting any better. During the dangerous response to the pandemic during his administration I opined in one of my postings that Trump may in fact be an agent of Vladimir Putin because things were getting so bad, it could not be by accident. It had to be by design. Chaos, discord and political violence in the U.S. are right in keeping with Putin’s goals. No one person in our history has done more to align with the goals of an adversary than Trump has done. I cannot forget those meetings between Trump and Putin, alone, with only Putin’s interpreter. We may never know what words were exchanged, but Trump’s continued actions designed to undermine our government on every level may tell us more than any transcript.

Never Again!

Posted: April 19, 2022 | Author: | Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: , , , , , | 4 Comments

In what should be more than a war of words, the term “genocide” is being tossed around in the wake of the fighting during Putin’s War. Russian President Vladimir Putin used the term prior to his invasion of Ukraine, claiming that the Ukrainians were committing genocide against the Russian speaking population of Donbas in the eastern part of Ukraine. Indeed, it is part of his disinformation campaign to justify his invasion and he connects it to his declaration that the Ukrainian government is run by “Nazis.” There is a long history of this sort of talk from Mr. Putin. In short, the Soviet Union’s war against Nazi Germany in World War II is glorified in Russian history beyond any level that we in the United States may understand. He is trying to build support for his war by tying it to the success of the Soviet army against the Nazis. Forgotten in that telling, of course, is that in 1939 the Soviet Union was allied with Germany via a non-aggression pact and they divided Poland between them. Also conveniently forgotten is that in April and May of 1940 the Soviets executed about 22,000 Polish military officers and intelligentsia in the Katyn forest.

In 2022 we face a difficult situation. President Joe Biden called Mr. Putin a “war criminal” for the atrocities taking place in Ukrainian areas occupied or under siege by Russian troops. At last count, Ukrainian government prosecutors were investigating about 5,800 cases of war crimes and crimes against humanity, with more uncovered everyday. These are facts which, unfortunately, many of us can see for ourselves each night on the national news. Last week Mr. Biden took it a step further during an event in Iowa by saying that Mr. Putin is “a dictator that commits genocide.” Later, he doubled down on his statement saying, “Yes. I called it genocide. It’s become clearer and clearer that Putin is trying to wipe out the idea of being Ukrainian.” Which has a basis in fact, as Mr. Putin repeatedly claims that Ukraine should cease to exist as a sovereign nation. He believes it should be Russian with only Russian speakers living there.

War crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide are all legal terms under international law. Each is the result of ever more horrifying actions of one people against others. Genocide, however, has usually been reserved for the most heinous of crimes and gives another level of importance to the events in Ukraine. As if they were not already of utmost importance. The moral stakes are as high as they can be.

The 1948 Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide (often called the Genocide Convention) codified the United Nations resolution of 1946 that made genocide a crime under international law. In Article II, the Convention document defines genocide as meaning “any of the following acts committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial, or religious group as such: Killing members of the group; Causing serious bodily or mental harm to members of the group; Deliberately inflicting on the group conditions of life calculated to bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part; Imposing measures intended to prevent births within the group; Forcibly transferring children of the group to another group.”

I will leave it to the international law experts to define what “in whole or in part” means, but it would seem that actions by one nation attempting to eliminate another does not have to succeed in entirely wiping them out. Merely trying to do so is a crime. In fact, the Convention states that conspiracy or incitement to commit genocide is itself a crime. Certainly it is easy from what we know in open source reporting that the Russians have violated at least four of the five genocidal actions under the Convention.

Sadly, whether brought up on war crime charges or for genocide, it is unlikely that Mr. Putin or any of those in his inner circle or those carrying out his orders will be brought to trial. Under the Convention the investigation and trial of such crimes are to be undertaken by the nation in which they occurred or in international court.

The real issue here is a moral one. It raises new questions about how NATO should support Ukraine and how this conflict will end. If we in the West truly believe in the slogan “Never Again!” — meaning we will never again sit by and watch the slaughter of thousands or millions of our fellow human beings as occurred in the Nazi death camps — then now is the time to step up. This is a major test of the world order and a test that will have consequences for decades to come. Russians are deliberately torturing, killing, beheading, raping, and desecrating civilians in Ukraine. I’ll repeat that. Deliberately. Even though I cannot understand how human beings can be so cruel to others — and yes, I know my history from around the world including here in the U.S. — it is none-the-less happening. It is an instrument of planned terror. It also provides a look into the psyche of the average Russian. Only by dehumanizing an opponent — thinking of them as “scum” (Putin’s word) and other than human — can people be so cruel.

These actions also impact how the war will end. How can Ukraine reach a negotiated settlement with Russia if the Russians are attempting to wipe out the very meaning of what it means to be Ukrainian? How can the West broker a settlement with a country accused of genocide? Is anything short of a complete defeat of Russia rewarding their genocidal policy? Does giving up Ukrainian territory — rewarding Russia for committing genocide — even make sense? Such questions have a significant impact on the course of the war, who gets involved, and its outcome.

My thoughts on NATO and with that, U.S. support to Ukraine have evolved over the course of the last few weeks. I think we need to go all in. Not with troops in Ukraine — at least not yet — but with every offensive and defensive weapon we can reasonably give to Ukraine. I am sure that we are providing valuable intelligence data to the Ukrainians (surprise Russian flagship Moskva!) to help them with their targeting but we should take that a step further to allow them to attack into Russian territory to hit supply, fuel and military targets. Continue to put our best military minds to work with imaginative, but deniable, actions that hinder the Russian military. Sanctions are the public face of such efforts — and they are beginning to work — but there is much more to do. Our covert capabilities are excellent. There is more to do without directly fighting the Russians.

The moral imperative is there now. I have come to understand what Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is saying about how this is a fight for the future of western democracies. It may sound like hyperbole, or over-dramatization on their part, but as we see the ruthless brutality of the Russians such statements take on more meaning. Importantly, remember why Mr. Putin started this war. Once the propaganda is removed it is for one major reason. He saw a direct challenge to his totalitarian regime. If Ukraine — where many Russians have family members as do Ukrainians in Russia — becomes a full fledged western democracy sitting fully on his border, he will soon have internal domestic problems as more and more Russians clamor for a similar assimilation into Europe. As it is, many of his troops are seeing a way of life that they could not imagine. In addition to the subjugation of a nation, there is a reason Russian troops are carrying away washing machines, laptops, televisions and other consumer goods. They cannot get them in many parts of Russia and certainly, many average Russians cannot afford them.

Mr. Putin is desperate to maintain his way of life and to rule Russia with an iron fist. That is why Ukraine is such a threat. He must destroy it in order to show that the western democracies of NATO cannot succeed in protecting it, therefore no nation should think that democracy is a way of governing that succeeds. How far he is willing to go in this scorched earth policy we can only guess. This is the first time in my experience that sober, knowledgeable people are talking about the use of nuclear weapons. Many surmise that Mr. Putin thinks such weapons are a viable option if needed to succeed in Ukraine. That should give all of us pause and emphasize once again how serious this war is and how much more serious it can become.

We get easily distracted by such things as “The Slap” at the Academy Awards show, or whether we now have to wear masks on airplanes. Life goes on, yes, but the stakes are higher in Ukraine than many believe. Five million people to date have left Ukraine for other countries. This in its self is a humanitarian crisis. It is also part of the Russian plan to destabilize western Europe by disrupting the ability of democratic governments to care for their own people and the refugees.

Genocide is underway. There is a massive humanitarian crisis underway. Terror is raining down on the civilians in many Ukrainian cities, killing tens of thousands of innocent men, women and children. Russia is reportedly deporting women and children from occupied areas to camps in Russia. More atrocities will be uncovered. Mr. Putin is trying to destroy the ideals of western democracy. The list will grow longer.

If we mean “Never Again!” we need to act on it.

Losers And Suckers

Posted: September 6, 2020 | Author: | Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

If you have not yet heard about the article in The Atlantic by Jeffrey Goldberg then you may think that this piece is about someone or something else other than the United States military.  Unfortunately, the title comes from the mouth of Mr. Donald J. Trump and he was referring to our military, especially to those killed, wounded or missing in action.  In accordance with the over 20,000 documented lies that the president has uttered since taking office, no one is surprised that Mr. Trump denied saying anything like that and trotted out a series of sycophants and Trump associates to deny that he ever said it.

Believe what you want, but I’ll go with The Atlantic and the corroboration of the essence of the article as confirmed by the Washington Post, New York Times, Associated Press, and Fox News.  It also fits a long pattern of actions on his part that indicate his prime interest in the military is the trappings of office and banana republic style parades and displays of military equipment.  For example, in 2018 his personal attorney Michael Cohen testified that Mr. Trump told him that he would never have gone to Vietnam.  “You think I’m stupid?  I wasn’t going to Vietnam.”

To me, it is easy to believe.  It fits a pattern of behavior and conduct in office that fully supports his belief that nothing, absolutely nothing, is worth doing unless there is some personal monetary or other reward involved.  He simply cannot comprehend that anybody would put their lives at risk for a concept such as democracy or the Constitution.  His world view is that everyone is out to get whatever they can, and to get it they will lie, cheat or steal.  If you do not do that then you are a loser or a sucker.  You are there to be had.

Apparently in his world view, no one gets rich in the military so to join makes you either stupid — literally, you couldn’t do anything else — or a sucker.  He is reported to have said to aides after a briefing by the then Chairman of the Joint Chiefs General Joe Dunford; “That guy is smart.  Why did he join the military?”

This latest revelation of the superficiality of everything associated with Mr. Trump is not surprising.  A quick look at some of his greatest hits shows that his language about the military is nothing new.  I still find it depressing.  Apparently he is not just totally transactional, but also ill-informed and basically ignorant about anything that does not involve his personal interests.

  • In 1997 Mr. Trump said during the Howard Stern Show that his “personal Vietnam” was avoiding Sexually Transmitted Diseases.  “I feel like a great and very brave soldier.”
  • Starting in 1999 he continually attacked Senator John McCain and called him a loser.  Mr. Trump denies this but his own Tweet from 18 July 2015 says exactly that.  The then Chief of Staff at the Department of Homeland Security Mr. Miles Taylor attested to the fact that Mr. Trump did not want to take any honorific actions following the Senator’s death.  Indeed, Mr. Trump was outraged that action was taken.
  • Following the 2016 Democratic Convention he relentlessly attacked Khizr and Ghazala Khan after they spoke about the sacrifice of their son Army Captain Khan who was killed in action in 2004.
  • In a botched condolence call in 2017 to the widow of Army Sergeant La David Johnson she said that Mr. Trump could not remember her husband’s name (he told her he read it after stumbling over it) and said to her “He knew what he signed up for.”  When she expressed her pain over the call, Mr. Trump spent the next eight days attacking her via his Twitter account.
  • In 2017 during a meeting in the Pentagon with the Joint Chiefs of Staff and other senior administration officials, he angrily told them they were all “losers.”  “I wouldn’t go to war with you people.  You’re a bunch of dopes and babies.”
  • In 2019 he interfered in the military justice system by overturning the war crimes convictions of a Navy SEAL and an Army Special Forces officer and another Army officer about to go on trial for war crimes.  Special interests used the medium of Fox News to get him to intervene.  He thought it was good for him to do so because it would be popular.  He said, “We train our boys to be killing machines, then prosecute them when they kill.”  Such statements show that he has no clue about the military, its honor, or its code of conduct.
  • Against the advice of his senior military and civilian advisers Mr. Trump precipitously withdrew U.S. support to the Kurds in Syria leading to a near massacre as Turkish forces poured across the border.  He left a staunch ally in the lurch in order to impress the thugish leader of Turkey.
  • This summer Mr. Trump threatened to deploy U.S. combat troops against American citizens.  The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs General Mark Milley had to make two separate public statements affirming the military is not in the business of acting against our own citizens and that the non-partisan nature of the military precludes support for any candidate for public office.
  • In July of this year Mr. Trump announced that the U.S. would withdraw about a third of our deployed forces in Europe to support NATO.  This is a move that certainly delights Russian president Vladimir Putin.  His stated reason for doing so was “We don’t want to be the suckers anymore.  We’re reducing the force because they’re not paying their bills.  It’s that simple.”  (Not surprisingly, his statement on bill paying is not accurate and shows his ignorance of how NATO defense spending works.  But hey, remember the 20,000 lies.)
  • It is well known in and out of government through published reports that Russian agents in Afghanistan put bounties on the heads of U.S. military personnel.  Taliban fighters would be paid for each American killed.  This is perhaps the greatest sign the Mr. Trump cares not one iota for American military personnel as he makes countless excuses for inaction.  Claiming ignorance, to this day he has not confronted the Russians over this outrage.  Preventing the needless loss of life for the troops and doing all in his power to keep them safe is the greatest responsibility of the Commander-in-Chief and he refuses to take action.

There are many more examples of his callous disregard for the American military.  He seems to think that all he has to do is mouth a few words at some rally and he’s done.

Do I believe that Mr. Trump is capable of calling our dead and wounded losers and suckers?  You bet I do.  His track record is abysmal.  To paraphrase another president, Mr. Trump does not ask what he can do for the country, he asks what the country can do for him.

Putin’s Obedient Servant

Posted: July 3, 2020 | Author: | Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

As Mr. Donald J. Trump continues to work hard over the last week to cement his status as the Worst President Ever, there are numerous examples of his total failure as a leader and as a person.  Whether it is continuing to espouse that COVID-19 will “sort of disappear”; promoting “white power”; holding thinly disguised rallies at national monuments; or running for president of the Confederacy, there are large numbers of occasions when one can only shake your head and hope that the election gets here soon.

And then it gets worse.

There may be no part of the job of President as important as that of Commander-in-Chief.  People die when the president gets it wrong.  For that matter, people sometimes die even when everything goes as planned.  It is a tough world and it is part of the pact between the military and the American people that service men and women will go in harms way to protect and defend the Constitution and our way of life in exchange for the promise that their lives, talent and American treasure will not be wasted in futile exploits and that those in charge — all the way to the president — will do all that they can to keep them safe in an inherently dangerous profession.  In the military it is known as force protection.

As a country, we can be reasonably certain that the recent revelations that Russian operatives worked with the Taliban in Afghanistan to put a bounty on the lives of US and coalition service members are true.  The evidence is startlingly clear.  The price for an American death was as much as 100,000 dollars.

Within a normal administration this would have caused one of several, or multiple, courses of action to kick in immediately upon learning of this threat.  The Russians would be warned at the highest level of government that this was a dangerous game that must stop immediately.  Likely, sanctions would be leveled against all involved.  Probably, especially if further evidence was uncovered, those involved in Afghanistan would have been on the receiving end of a capture or kill operation.

As we know, sadly this is not a normal administration.  The official announcement was that no action will be taken against Russia.

And then it gets worse.

Mr. Trump says, “I think it’s a hoax by the newspapers and the Democrats.”  These remarks came on 1 July after several days of credible reporting that Mr. Trump continuously decried and belittled.

The excuses for inaction have come fast and furious.  Among those floated were the assertion that Mr. Trump was never briefed on the situation.  When that was reported to be inaccurate, the excuse was that it may have been in a written intelligence document but no one verbally briefed him.  When that did not quite pass the smell test,  the reason given was that the intelligence reports were not “verifiable.”  Well now.  That is not an intelligence term.  Most  intelligence reports in this vein are not verifiable.  The terms of art are “credible” or “not credible.”  When there is credible evidence of a terrorist attack, it is not verified that an attack is actually going to happen until it does.  The country does not — or at least did not — wait for an attack before acting.  The killing of Osama bin Laden was based on credible intelligence — they did not know for sure that he was in that villa at that time — it was verified when they got a DNA match from the dead body.  The terms that Mr. Trump and his enablers use are just gobbledygook designed to deflect from Mr. Trump’s dereliction of duty as Commander-in-Chief.

Rather than being bogged down in the weeds over who was briefed and to what level, etc. etc. etc.  the real question should be what action would a president take once the story broke?  The answer is easy.  The president picks up the phone and calls for an immediate update and then works with his staff for appropriate responses to counter the Russians or to put out a credible explanation as to what actually happened should the facts have been misinterpreted.

So now we all know about it.  Who knew about it when is not now important.  What is Mr. Trump going to do?  Apparently, whine about how it is unfair to him and that it is all designed to make him look bad and on and on with his usual “poor me” schtick.  Despicable.

It seems that the lives of US service men and women fighting our nation’s wars are less valuable than whatever political ax Mr. Trump has to grind.

The signal to Mr. Putin?  Do whatever you want Vlad because the USA is not going to hold you accountable.  It is open season on Americans abroad and on our national security at home.  Kill our folks.  Interfere in our election.  Conduct cyber attacks on our businesses and infrastructure.  Do whatever you want because the stable genius in the White House will not do anything to upset his personal apple cart full of Russian money.

To me, that is the best and most plausible explanation as to why Mr. Trump refuses, time and time and time again, to do anything to upset his “friend” Vladimir Putin.  My sense is not that Mr. Trump is protecting Mr. Putin.  My strong belief is that Mr. Putin is protecting Mr. Trump’s secrets and Mr. Trump is afraid that if he says or does the wrong thing, the Russians will put it all out there.  Putin is the name, blackmail the game.

No one with oversight responsibility has yet to see Mr. Trump’s taxes or the financial records of Trump, Inc.  Mr. Trump has fought long and hard in court to keep those records secret.  I am willing to bet that those records are full of illegal at the worst, unethical at the best, transactions.  Mr. Trump and Trump, Inc. had multiple bankruptcies.  US banks stopped lending him money for his far flung schemes.  My bet is that Russian oligarchs, beholden to Mr. Putin, bailed him out and in return Mr. Trump and his businesses helped the Russian Mafia to launder money and to conduct other illegal schemes.

Have you ever seen the movie The Godfather?  It’s all you need to know as to how Mr. Trump is entangled with the Russians.  And believe me, Mr. Trump is not the Godfather.  I don’t think he is even as smart or as skilled as Fredo.

We know that our values are totally corrupted when the Commander-in-Chief will take no action to protect our troops and the Party of Trump in the Congress stays silent.  It is hard for me to decide which is more loathsome — a president that will not do his job or members of Congress that protect and defend a corrupt president rather than our troops.

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