The Intractable Middle East

It is over four weeks since the horrific Hamas terrorist attack in Israel that left approximately 1400 people brutally murdered and about 240 taken hostage. Since then, the Israeli military has relentlessly bombed the Gaza strip and sent tanks and troops into that bit of land sandwiched between Israel, Egypt and the Mediterranean Sea. The Health Ministry in Gaza reports that over 10,000 Palestinians, including over 4,000 children have been killed in the bombings, a figure that cannot be independently verified as Hamas controls the ministry. Regardless, an awful lot of people are dying in Gaza.

It is clear that this is a nasty situation for lots of people. What is not clear is how it will all end. Without a doubt, Israel has the absolute right to eliminate the existential threat posed by Hamas to the very existence of a Jewish state. Hamas claims that they will not stop until Israel is eliminated from the face of the Earth and all Jews are “exterminated.” No country should support such a goal in any way shape or form. Likewise, the government of Israel states that they will not stop until they have done the exact same thing to Hamas. Given that both war aims are unrealistic, and that Israel is clearly the superior military entity and suffered an unforgiveable attack, what is their desired end state after all is said and done? What are Israel’s practical war aims? Furthermore, how does Israel attain its war aims without killing thousands of innocent Palestinians? The one thing to know about the Middle East, when behind closed doors, is that the Israelis do not care about the Palestinians, Hamas does not care about the Palestinians and the vast majority of Arab countries do not care about the Palestinians — they are merely pawns to achieve other national aims. To put it in different terms, if there was a caste system in the Middle East, Palestinians would be the untouchables.

Without having access to the Israeli war plans, there is no way of knowing what their specific goals are, but it is possible to surmise their intentions. In any operational or strategic military undertaking, the key element is to clearly define the mission — why do what you are doing? What are you trying to achieve? The Israeli’s stated goal is to kill every Hamas terrorist. But why? That is not an end state. It is one of their means to achieve it. Their real goal is to secure their own national security. To achieve that they want to eliminate Hamas as an effective organization and to stabilize Gaza by installing a governing entity that can stand up to the terrorists while promoting economic and social progress. The only way that Israel can feel that the threat from Gaza is eliminated is when they can peacefully co-exist. Is this a unicorns and rainbows solution? Possibly. But it doesn’t change the reality that the citizens of Israel can never truly feel safe until there is peaceful coexistence. That is the essence of long-standing U.S. and international policy striving for a two-state solution — a Palestinian state that is recognized and treated as an autonomous nation alongside a partner in Israel.

There is real danger in the situation as it exists today. Several factors are at play. First, as we all see in the daily headlines, the Israelis are pursuing Hamas by any means necessary. While they have every right to fully and forcefully fight the terrorists, how a nation does so is as important. It is not clear whether the Israeli government is taking the long view or merely the most expedient. That there will be “collateral damage” (a horrible term for civilian casualties) in a military operation in densely populated areas is perhaps unavoidable. However, whole scale bombing of cities where innocent civilians are trapped undermines Israel’s standing and support in the international community. The counter argument is that Hamas built hundreds of miles of tunnels under the cities using hospitals, schools and people’s homes to hide their existence and to try to provide a shield. To eliminate the terrorists in those tunnels in a slow, drawn out, yard by yard fight under the ground would likely result in unacceptable Israeli losses. However, there are other ways to seal off those tunnels using other means or by sending unmanned platforms in to kill the terrorists. Significant intelligence assets exist to pinpoint key areas to target rather than the elimination of all possible tunnel systems by using “bunker busters” that destroy everything in their blast radius. Other classified procedures are possible as well. The point is that indiscriminate bombing, resulting in ten thousand civilian casualties, does not really meet Israeli war aims. If their security hinges on peaceful coexistence, then radicalizing new generations of Palestinians which end up joining the terrorists does not help them achieve it.

Further expansion of the conflict is another real danger. Iranian surrogates are stirring up trouble in southern Lebanon where Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah claims to have 100,000 well armed fighters at his disposal, far more than Hamas. (Independent analysts say it is more likely 20,000 to 50,000 fighters, still far more than in Gaza.) Other terrorist groups have attacked U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria. The West Bank is a powder keg ready to explode as the expansion of Israeli settlements under the policies of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu continue to exacerbate tensions. Israel can ill afford to fight a simultaneous three front war. The U.S. deployed significant air and naval forces to the region to reinforce our commitment to Israel’s national security and to protect our own interests in the region by deterring other bad actors from taking advantage of the situation.

The solution is a long way off. It seems that Israel is totally focused on the short term goal of killing terrorists. U.S. shuttle diplomacy by President Joe Biden and Secretary of State Antony Blinken is focused on containing the situation geographically, procuring the release of over 200 hostages, getting humanitarian aid into Gaza, and constructing the outlines of a long term political, diplomatic and economic solution. It is a difficult job, especially when our own domestic political games in the House of Representatives are hindering our ability to provide aid to Israel. Meanwhile, the war in Ukraine is relegated to the back pages of the newspapers while MAGA Republicans want to stop providing them aid in their fight to survive Russian annihilation. It’s a tough world.

The most likely long term solution is for the Palestinian Authority (PA), the nominal government of the West Bank, to assert control over Gaza. The PA will not be able to do so on its own. A combined Arab military mission into Gaza under the auspices of the United Nations seems to be the best solution to stabilize conditions for a gradual reconstitution of the Gaza strip. In the short term, it is unlikely that the Arab world would agree to participate (see paragraph two above). Under further international pressure and without any other solution in sight, it is possible.

Israel is going to do what it feels it must. Despite outside perceptions, the Israelis listen to the U.S. but in the end they do what they want to do, regardless. Given their history, it is understandable, even if sometimes it hurts them in the long run. To conflate Israeli actions in Gaza as being a reaction to, or an attempt to confound the desire for an independent Palestinian state is wrong. Israel was brutally attacked by evil terrorists. They are responding. End of that discussion. Open to debate is how they are responding and whether the two-state solution could lead to a more stable region where people of different religions live in peace.

The anti-Semitic attacks, allegedly in support of the Palestinians, breaking out across the U.S. and elsewhere are dangerous and shameful. It does not help the Palestinian cause. When one only gets information from Instagram and X, it is impossible to understand the complexities of this situation. Emotions overwhelm reason and logic. It does not help the Palestinians or anyone else. It does give great joy to the Chinese and Russian troll farms that want to destroy our country from within.

Only long term diplomatic, political and economic policies are going to resolve this crisis. In the short term, lots of people are going to die or suffer. Israel must defend itself. International organizations need to continue to work to get aid to innocent Palestinians. Neither one is easy.