The Autocrat’s Excuse

“Some of you may die, but it’s a sacrifice I am willing to make!” Lord Farquaad in the animated movie Shrek (2001).

“The lives of courageous American heroes may be lost, and we may have casualties. That often happens in war.” Trump on 28 February announcing the attack on Iran. He later that day held a million dollar a plate dinner at Mar-a-Lago.

As I write, we are in day six of Operation Epstein Files Epic Fury, the U.S. and Israeli attack on Iran. At this point, we still do not know why the war had to start right now and we still do not know the desired end state. As I explained in my post prior to the attack, without a stated end state, no one knows when we have “won”. So far, the Trump administration has posited multiple and often conflicting reasons for the attack and cannot seem to get their story straight. Key leaders such as the Secretary of Defense still talk in tactical terms rather than strategic. They cannot articulate what winning looks like and what the overall goal is for governing in Iran.

Before I go further let me say that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of Iran, and those that supported his regime while suppressing the aspirations of everyday Iranians was an evil man. I do not defend him or his regime in anyway. They have been bad actors for decades. I also commend our women and men in uniform whose professionalism and expertise has again demonstrated that the U.S. military is the best of the best. Our service members have preformed admirably and courageously.

Neither of those facts, however, justify this attack on Iran.

Why not Russia, China and/or North Korea? Let’s look at the rationale behind the war — and I will return to that momentarily but the Trump administration is calling it a “war.” Comparing the reasons given for attacking Iran and comparing them to our relations with the Bush era defined “Axis of Evil” does not explain why Iran or why now. Stalled negotiations. Check. Might be pursuing a nuclear weapon. Check. Promotes terrorism. Check. Has ballistic missiles that threaten the U.S. and our allies. Check. Everything that Trump and his cabinet say are our reasons for launching the war is the same, or poses an even greater threat from Russia, China, and North Korea. No one is arguing that we attack them. Indeed, Russia’s assault on Ukraine is ongoing after four years and this administration barely acknowledges the atrocities committed by Russians. Russia invaded a democratic Ukraine and all that Trump does is berate the Ukrainian leadership and pester them into giving in to Russian demands. Nothing is asked of Russia.

Maybe we struck Iran because we could and Trump likes to act the part of the tough guy Commander-in-Chief. Or maybe it is because Trump is beholden to Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel and to Mohammed bin Salman al Saud of Saudi Arabia. Netanyahu has been warning for thirty years that Iran was on the brink of obtaining a nuclear weapon “any day”. Maybe Trump believed him, because he certainly did not believe his own intelligence agencies that were telling Trump that there was no imminent threat of Iran developing a nuclear weapon and that they had no means of weaponizing one. It is known that Mohammed (aka MBS) was calling Trump repeatedly over the last month telling him that Iran needed to be taken care of. Let’s speculate a bit. Netanyahu knows how to play Trump like a fiddle and Trump dances. But that may not be enough. It may be just a coincidence but when Trump left office after his first term, Jared Kushner his son-in-law got a two billion dollar investment from the Saudis. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) in the past year bought a 500 million dollar stake in the Trump family crypto venture called World Liberty Financial. Qatar gave Trump — personally, not as president — a luxury Boeing 747 with an estimated worth of 400 million dollars. Oman is working with the Trump family to develop properties in their country. Saudi Arabia is also working with the Trump family on developing real estate such as Trump Tower Jedda and Trump Plaza Riyadh and a 63 billion dollar project in Diriyah. All of these Arab countries have competing interests opposed to Persian Iran. Could that be why we took out Iran? Just asking.

I am not even sure that Trump knows why he ordered the operation. In a press gaggle at the White House he stated that he had a feeling that Iran would attack first so he got the jump on them. He decided instinctively that he should go to war rather than listen to advisers (he doesn’t) or believe the intelligence presented to him (he ignores it). In a way this fits with Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s explanation of why now. It was convoluted as many of his statements are in trying to explain yet another poor decision. He claimed that the the Israelis were going to attack Iran anyway, and since the Iranians were going to respond across the region, then the U.S. had to strike first to stop Iran’s response to an Israeli attack. In other words, Israel can decide when the U.S. goes to war. Speaker of the House “Lil Mikey” Johnson gave the same explanation as did Rubio. Rubio later walked it back but it makes about as much sense as any other explanation the administration has offered.

One would hope that they have some strategic objective in mind as the war is beginning to spread out of the Middle East. A U.S. submarine sank an Iranian warship off the coast of Sri Lanka. Iran sent drones against a British base on Cyprus. The economic consequences are already being felt around the world. Where are we headed?

I am out of the prediction business, but here is what would not surprise me. One day, when it is clear that it is not going to be easy to clean up the mess he made in the Middle East, Trump will wake up and decide it’s over. Stop the fighting, go home and figure out the next country he wants to attack. (Cuba anyone? Earlier this week he raised the prospect of “a friendly take over” of Cuba.) Of course that will leave a huge vacuum in a volatile area of the world. It could leave behind the same conditions that led to the growth of ISIS and al-Qaeda in other areas of the region. It will also not rid us of Iranian meddling. They have a long history, a long memory and a willingness to retaliate on their own time and at a place of their choosing. Terrorism will not go away with a leaderless, devastated Iran. The threat may even increase if we just pack up and leave. So far, it doesn’t appear that he thinks much past day one of anything. Our assault on Venezuela was supposedly to eliminate the Maduro regime. The Maduro regime is still in power, still terrorizing their population and still making themselves rich. Nothing changed except that now Trump has access to Venezuelan oil. I surmise that he cares as much about the Iranian people as he does the Venezuelans or the populations of the other six countries he’s bombed in his second term.

Yesterday in the Senate, and soon in the House, Congress will again abdicate its power and responsibility under the Constitution and give in to the president by failing to pass a resolution under the War Powers Act. The two biggest responsibilities of the Congress are the power to declare war and to control the funding of the government. This Congress has shirked both obligations thus allowing a president that already acts like he can do whatever he wants, to, in fact, do whatever he wants, even starting a needless war. Many people point to the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq as precedents to Trump’s actions. That overlooks the fact that President George W. Bush built a case for war in both areas, went to Congress, explained the need, and acted in concert with the will of the American people at the time. Congress passed Authorization for Use of Military Force (AUMF) acts for Afghanistan and Iraq. One can question whether that was wise and question whether it gave the president too much latitude. The point is, however, that he did consult with and get approval from, the Congress. Trump just ignores them. There is not any “wiggle room” either that this is just a “combat operation” or a “police action” or some other euphemism for “war.” Trump, his cabinet and others have specifically used the word war. I think they like the sound of it. However, contrary to his assertions, there was no imminent threat. He had time to build the case with the American people and to work with our representatives in Congress to justify his actions. He does not think that he has to do that or anything else that he perceives as limiting his power.

When things are going poorly, the aspiring autocrat looks outside of their national borders to create a new enemy and to turn the people’s attention away from what is happening at home.

Long live the king!