Iran’s Strategic Victory

Posted: May 29, 2026 | Author: | Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

A billboard in downtown Tehran depicting Donald J. Trump with his lips stitched together in a symbolic illustration of the closed Strait of Hormuz. (Reuters)

For several days now, there have been rumors of a “deal” between Iran and the U.S. In diplomatic terms, there is no such thing as a deal. There are treaties, agreements, alliances, and a host of other official documents that exist under international law. In truth, the Trump administration calls the agreement a Memorandum of Understanding or MOU. A MOU — and this one is supposedly one page — is not how wars end. A MOU is more like a concept of a plan and in fact, this one calls for a continued ceasefire for sixty days while the actual terms are hammered out. One thing is for sure, Trump has no idea what he is doing and he is giving the word “deal” a bad connotation. Last Saturday Trump said they were close to an agreement. On Sunday he said that they were not close. On Monday we attacked targets in Iran, allegedly in self-defense, but contrary to the existing ceasefire. Then we learned that the negotiators have come to terms but as of this writing, neither the leadership in Iran nor Trump have agreed to it. Wednesday the two sides exchanged attacks.

It is hard to assess whether the U.S. achieved its strategic goals because they were never articulated, other than vague announcements that Iran must give up their “nuclear dust” (enriched uranium). Or was it his declaration that he would accept nothing less than Iran’s “unconditional surrender?” Or was it that he was going to select “acceptable” new leaders in Iran — regime change? Or was it to destroy all of their ballistic missiles? (Intelligence assessments made public indicate Iran has about 70% of their arsenal intact.) Or was it “a whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again”? Or anything else that happens to pop into his head.

In my view, the Iranians scored a resounding strategic victory that puts the U.S. on its heels around the globe. Historically, this could be the turning point where the U.S. goes from being a global leader to becoming a regional power. It will be the end of American dominance enjoyed since the end of World War II. There are multiple reasons as to why we will look back on this war of choice as a disaster bigger than Viet Nam or Afghanistan.

What is in the agreement? As I write, that is unclear. Both the U.S. and Iran have publicly discussed different elements of the MOU and the parts do not often match. It appears that it will extend the current (almost) ceasefire for another sixty days. During those sixty days, talks would continue for a more permanent agreement. At some point, and right now it looks like after the sixty days, nuclear talks would begin as to the disposition of the Iranian program. There are very little specifics. The Strait of Hormuz, which was open before Trump initiated the conflict, would reopen. The U.S. blockade of the Gulf and Iranian ports would end. Additionally some sanctions against Iran would be lifted and some amount of frozen assets (pallets of money?) released. In other words, we will be worse off, Iran will be better off, after hostilities cease. President Obama’s Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) hammered out with the P-5+1 (the five permanent members of the U.N Security Council plus Germany) and Iran to curtail Iran’s nuclear program was a much more fruitful and impactful agreement. Critically, that plan included intrusive inspectors to monitor compliance. Trump tore it up. The MOU makes no mention of inspectors which makes any discussion of the nuclear program meaningless unless inspectors are given unrestricted access.

As the talks progressed this week, out of nowhere, Trump invoked the Abraham Accords and demanded that all of the Muslim countries sign on as part of the MOU. The Abraham Accords are a series of agreements, brokered by the U.S. between Israel and Muslim and Arab majority states. Egypt and Jordan have had relations with Israel since 1979 and 1994 respectively. UAE, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan have joined the Accords since 2020. Complicating the picture is Palestine. Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states plus Pakistan and others will not establish diplomatic relations with Israel until the Israelis commit to a two state solution for the Palestinians. The Israelis, or more specifically Benjamin Netanyahu, refuses. Analysts speculate that Trump threw in that proposal to try and salvage what is going to clearly be a major failure on his part if the MOU goes forward. Should he stick to that requirement, it will prevent agreement on the MOU.

Remember that Israel is conducting military operations in Lebanon against Hezbollah, a proxy of Iran’s. Iran declared that fighting in Lebanon must be included in any settlement or ceasefire. Israel declared that Lebanon and Iran are two distinct issues and that any agreement with Iran does not include Lebanon. This is but one of many complicating factors preventing a permanent agreement and thus the MOU. Additionally, Netanyahu is against any agreement that does not eliminate Iran’s nuclear programs upfront, before the war ends.

One of the biggest lessons learned is the changing nature of warfare. If nothing else, Ukraine and now Iran have demonstrated that a militarily inferior nation can hold out against a much larger and better equipped nation. One big reason is drones. Clearly a Tomahawk surface to surface missile is a more powerful weapon than a relatively cheap drone. But warfare in the modern era is not just about who has the biggest guns. It is economic warfare as well as combat. We have a finite number of expensive precision offensive munitions and our defenses are finite and expensive. Iran can quickly and cheaply churn out a nearly unlimited supply of drones. Are cheap drones sufficient for today’s warfare? No. But if the future of warfare is drones, then Hegseth’s and Trump’s infatuation with a manly non-woke military is a distraction from what really counts. Trump and Hegseth want to take us back to the 1990s with big platforms like the Trump battleship or the F-47 stealth fighter (Trump thinks it is named after him as the 47th president). Those programs cost tens of billions of dollars. One Trump battleship is estimated to cost at least 20 billion dollars (while we are going back to the future, why not propel the ship with big, beautiful coal which Trump seems to want to use to power everything). For example, one Tomahawk missile costs about 2 million dollars launched from a multi-billion dollar platform manned by hundreds of sailors which does not include other costs such as maintenance, fuel, logistics and so on. One Iranian Shaheed drone costs about twenty thousand dollars. Are they terribly sophisticated? No. But when fired by the hundreds coming from multiple directions, some are going to get through, no matter how sophisticated the air defense system is — and our sophisticated air defense systems also use very expensive radars and missiles.

The American military uses drones but they are big expensive ones with a long logistical tail. For example, a set of four MQ-9 Reaper drones (also known as the Predator B — a long range, long endurance, remotely piloted aircraft) plus the ground control station and satellite link systems, cost about $30 million dollars. We have lost several to the Houthis and Iranians as well in operational accidents. Each F-22 Raptor (the current all weather stealth fighter aircraft) costs about 150 million dollars. None of the aircraft have been built since 2011 with only 187 total put into service. However, looking at the total program cost per aircraft (which includes research, development, and start up costs) it comes out to about 340 million dollars per plane. It costs about 70,000 dollars per flight hour to use one. You get the idea, our modern arsenal is expensive. The Pentagon claims that the war against Iran cost taxpayers about 30 billion dollars to date. Most economists estimate that the actual figure is around one trillion dollars when adding up the cost of the operations in theater plus damage to bases and equipment plus the long term replenishment of depleted stockpiles and the personnel involved. So far we have lost thirteen service members killed in action and about five hundred wounded. None of that includes the impact on our domestic economy.

We must also remember that one of the keys to our economy and our role in it is freedom of the seas. Iran now knows that it can control the Strait of Hormuz regardless of any ceasefire or other agreement. That means they also control about 20% of the flow of the world’s oil, significant amounts of natural gas, fertilizer and other “must have” commodities. They will demand to be treated with respect or else they can threaten to disrupt the world’s economy and close it again. Or close it to those nations that are not friendly to them or otherwise refuse to meet Iranian demands. The rest of the world will have to deal with Iran or be prepared for threats to their economy. Iran is now a major player in the region and the world. Despite the Iranian navy “lying on the bottom” as Trump puts it, the U.S. could not keep the Strait open. We also were unable to provide the deterrence or protection we promised to our Gulf friends and allies in the region. Trump even threatened one of our strongest regional supporters. When asked this week about Oman working with Iran to control the Strait he said, “the Strait’s got to be open to everybody… nobody’s going to control it. We’re going to watch… over it… Oman will behave like everybody else or we’ll have to blow ‘em up.” Very reassuring. 

Trump bullies and shouts, but in the end, what does he really talk about? Venezuela, Cuba, Greenland, Canada, Mexico, and other Western Hemisphere nations. He mocks NATO, our strongest allies ever, and refuses to commit to their defense. Where does that leave us? We are fast losing our status as a world power and are becoming a regional power. Russia, and especially China, are ready to fill the void.

All for what?

Our Alleged “Stable Genius”

Posted: April 29, 2026 | Author: | Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

A Truth Social meme posted, when most of us were asleep, by the President. Of the United States. When I first saw it I thought it was a joke put up by a fake account. Sadly, it is real.

With all of the talk about ballrooms and sea shells on North Carolina beaches and the continued stonewalling about the Epstein files, one may forget that we are still at war with Iran. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed, gas is now averaging $4.23 a gallon nationally, farmers are having trouble finding fertilizer for the planting season and our Commander-in-Chief knows only how to use AI to try and make himself look tough. Emphasis on “try.” Trump thinks that he can bully Iran into giving up its “nuclear dust” (as he calls it, and I’m not really sure what he means but probably he means enriched uranium). This is the very same guy that claimed it was “obliterated” last summer. I could fill several pages in this space recounting all of the lies that he and his administration have told about this war of choice, but since most of them are preposterous and easily debunked, I won’t waste your time. Simply ask yourself if you, and indeed the world, are better off, safer and more financially secure as a result of this war than you were two months ago.

We still do not know what the reason for the attacks on Iran are all about. Our service men and women have performed professionally and with skill. They are tremendous. But what are they risking their lives to do? Tactical brilliance does not translate to strategic success without a well thought out rationale for war with clear goals set at the beginning. Trump and his man servant Hegseth continue to change their story with each passing day and cannot articulate any strategic goals, only tactical successes. Military planning is based on, and in this order, delineating the ends (strategic goal — when do you know you won?), ways (the operational use of force — attack from the air, the sea, direct assault, hit command and control?) and the means (tactical application of force — what armaments and forces are available?). All three must be in alignment.

Currently, we are in a stalemate with Iran. Both the Iranians and the Trump Administration think that they can wait out the other side and that they can force the other guy to give up. Among the many factors that this administration overlooked or underestimated is the steadfast will of the Iranian culture. Couple that with a government that does not answer to the population but is only interested in its own survival, and it gives the Iranians an advantage. They are suffering, without a doubt, but most regional experts assess that they can hold out much longer than expected. The rest of the world is already beginning to suffer and will be experiencing real economic and quality of life hardships in the very near future. It is unclear whether or not our friends and allies (a different topic as Trump works overtime to alienate every single one of them — except his best buddy Putin) can bring pressure to bear for Trump to settle with the Iranians.

As it stands now, and Trump could change it all in the next five minutes with a Truth Social post, the Iranians have offered to reopen the Strait and then come to the negotiating table to discuss other issues, such as what to do about their enriched uranium. In exchange, the U.S. must lift its blockade of Iran. Trump refuses to discuss it and is increasing the strength of the blockade and ordering the seizure of Iranian ships worldwide.

In recent days it became clear that the U.S. and our regional supporters suffered more damage than previously understood. It is estimated that the U.S. suffered about five billion dollars in damages to equipment such as missile defense radars in Qatar, Jordan and UAE, the Navy’s Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain, air bases in Jordan, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia and numerous high end aircraft and drones, to name a few. All of the Gulf state countries plus Jordan suffered damage to their infrastructure and some oil and natural gas facilities. Of course most importantly, human beings were killed and injured including thirteen U.S. service members killed and around three hundred and fifty wounded.

Trump is in a bind. He has lost interest in the war but cannot look weak. If he withdraws U.S. forces without some concessions from the Iranians the world will consider it a defeat. If he stays indefinitely he looks weak because Iran gets stronger everyday and will have survived our best shot and lived to fight another day. Continuing direct combat operations weakens our ability to defend our interests in other hotspots around the world. The U.S. has already used up thousands of cruise missiles and air defense missiles that could take three to five years to replenish. According to the Department of Defense, the war cost us 25 billion dollars to date. Most analysts put the total costs at a much higher level, as much as 65 billion dollars. Today Hegseth testified before Congress that the DOD requested budget for the next fiscal year is 1.5 trillion dollars, a forty-four percent increase over the current budget.

To settle his war of choice, Trump must get serious about the negotiations. Sending two real estate tycoons to negotiate a meaningful settlement is ridiculous, not to mention that the last two times the Iranians met with these same individuals — thinking that they were making meaningful progress — their country was attacked. There can be no “take it or leave it” agreement forced on the Iranians. Bullying will not work — it only makes them more determined. It will take a team of experts and seasoned negotiators to spend a lot of time with great patience to reach a negotiated settlement. Trump should set the process in motion, shut up, and see what happens over time. Pakistan showed that it can be a helpful and effective mediator. Let them try.

In the end, Trump is likely to end up with an agreement that is barely as good as the one that the U.S. negotiated during the Obama Administration that Trump tore up. The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) between Iran and the “P-5+1” (the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council US, UK, France, China, Russia, plus Germany along with the EU) limited Iran’s capability to enrich uranium. The agreement limited the number of Iranian centrifuges, the level of enrichment and the size of their stockpiles. As part of the agreement, intrusive monitoring was conducted by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). In exchange, Iran got some sanctions relief, some frozen assets were released and a timetable for other future provisions. Sanctions remained in place for Iran’s missile program, support for terrorist groups and efforts to improve Iran’s human rights record. It was not perfect but it was working, it was building trust for future agreements, and it kept Iran in relative check. Israel opposed the deal. It took twenty months of detailed negotiations using technical experts as well as diplomatic experts. The negotiations were slow going with ups and downs as each side sounded out the other and built trust. No such expertise accompanied Trump’s recent negotiating teams. I suppose that as a very stable genius he did not need any other experts working on the issues.

Trump is likely to declare victory once the Strait of Hormuz is reopened. The very Strait that was open to free flowing ship traffic before the war. He will continue to make noises about the Iranian nuclear program but will not seriously negotiate a settlement. The wild card in ending the war is Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel. He is determined to turn southern Lebanon into another Gaza strip by destroying it in his fight with Hezbollah. He is also not satisfied with the status quo in Iran. The next step may not be Trump’s to take. Remember that initially Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that the U.S. attacked Iran because Israel was about to do so and since Iran would retaliate, the U.S. decided to strike first. One wonders who has their hand on the wheel driving us to who knows where.

Mad King Donnie Disrupts The World

Posted: April 9, 2026 | Author: | Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

On Tuesday, Trump claimed that in accordance with an announced cease-fire with Iran that the Strait of Hormuz is open. On Thursday, officials from the United Arab Emirates (UAE) stated that “the Strait of Hormuz is not open. Access is being restricted, conditioned and controlled” by Iran. The map shows how Iran is rerouting shipping so that it can pass within the firing range of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards so that they can shake down the shippers for cash. From CNBC (AFP/Getty Images)

On one level, all of us should be thankful that Trump pulled his TACO routine (Trump Always Chickens Out) after posting on social media Tuesday morning, directed at Iran and its population of 93 million men, women and children that “A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again.” That is what scholars, pundits and most of the public call genocide. From the President of the United States. Speaking to the world in our name. The reaction from his fellow Republicans? Nothing. No accountability. No responsibility. No consequences. This is not okay. This is beyond shameful and is sufficient cause for getting rid of the whole lot of them. Our Constitution is soiled and our system of government is broken. Clearly the president is deranged. It is no longer a slogan or an exaggeration or any other mitigating definition. He is just plain crazy and he controls nuclear weapons. Two things are clear from his statement. First and foremost he has no moral compass, code of ethics or empathy for any human besides himself. Second, he clearly thinks he can do whatever he wants without restraint from anybody or any organization. If he wants it, he will order it, and expect it to be carried out. This should scare all of us right to our core. Thank goodness he chickened out. But let’s look deeper.

One hour before his stated deadline for Iran to end the war and open the Strait of Hormuz, Pakistani Prime Minister Sharif offered up a fig leaf to provide an exit ramp from doomsday. Both Trump and Iran accepted a two week ceasefire to allow diplomatic efforts to continue towards a more lasting settlement. In doing so, Trump said that the Iranian ten point plan for a negotiated settlement was a “workable basis on which to negotiate.” Iran took that literally, always dangerous when dealing with Trump. It appears that Trump probably did not know what was in the Iranian proposal. Here are the points in the plan:

  1. Cessation of the war on Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen.
  2. Cessation of the war in Iran with no time limit.
  3. Ending all conflicts in the region.
  4. Reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
  5. Establishing a protocol and conditions to ensure freedom and security of navigation in the Strait.
  6. Full payment of war reparations to Iran.
  7. Lifting sanctions on Iran.
  8. Release of the Iranian frozen assets held by the United States.
  9. Iran commits to not seeking possession of any nuclear weapons.
  10. Immediate ceasefire on all fronts upon the ceasefire announcement.

Looks a lot like Iran got nearly everything that they wanted. After scathing criticism stating that fact, Trump retreated. Now the administration is claiming that this is not the plan, instead there is a “secret” plan that they cannot reveal. If you believe that, you probably have a degree from Trump University.

For forty-seven years Iran has been the leading exporter of terrorism. There are no tears shed for the regime, its military or any of the other suppressors of the Iranian people. Iranians — Persians — have a long and storied history and culture. We will all rejoice when they rejoin the nations of the world as a stable, productive and welcomed member of society. This assault did not achieve that but it did make life worse for the average citizen of the country.

Israel, of course, is not honoring the ceasefire, whatever form it may be in. They continue to bomb Lebanon claiming that that war is different than the one on Iran. Iran refuses to fully open the the Strait until the Israelis stop their bombing. In short, it is a very confusing situation as I write. We do know, that for now, the United States has ceased attacking targets in Iran. That is about the only thing that is for sure. Oh, and Trump and his minions are claiming a “historic and overwhelming victory on the battlefield. A capital V military victory” as the former Fox News weekend host and current Secretary of Defense describes it.

The U.S. military did what they were asked to do. They significantly degraded the Iranian military in an overwhelming tactical win. But, strategically? Iran won big time. There is a famous conversation between adversaries in Viet Nam some years after the war. Harry Summers, an American colonel allegedly told a North Vietnamese counterpart, “You know, you never defeated us on the battlefield,” to which the Vietnamese colonel replied, “That may be so, but it is also irrelevant.” History is replete with examples of similar tactical losses leading to strategic victory. One can argue our most recent example was the U.S. involvement in Afghanistan.

Here is some of what Trump expected from Iran for our war of choice to cease and the assault on Iran to end. First, he called on the Iranian people to rise up and take control of their government. Then he simplified that to “regime change.” Then he called for “the complete and unconditional surrender” of the nation. Then it was to destroy Iranian stockpiles of enriched uranium. Then it was to prevent Iran from building a nuclear weapon. Then it was to keep their proxies (Hezbollah and the Houthis) from participating in the war. Then I lost track, but they ended with opening the Strait of Hormuz — which I will gently remind everyone was open to free navigation prior to the war. None of these objectives were achieved. In fact, in some ways, Iran is in better shape now. They have an even more entrenched and radical regime in control of the country. Sanctions have been lifted so Iran is making lots of money with oil prices so high. Iran is charging tolls for the use of the Strait of Hormuz — more money to the regime to rearm and rebuild, especially as Russia has openly supported Iran and reports indicate that China has been helping them as well.

(Distracting Note: Were I conspiracy theorist, I might opine that the entire reason for Operation Epic Fury was to help Vladimir Putin and Russia. Sanctions against Russia are lifted, allowing for them to purchase more weapons for use against Ukraine. Weapons and ammunition destined for Ukraine was diverted to the U.S. attack on Iran. Russia supplied targeting information on U.S. forces to Iran. Trump has all but broken NATO. He viciously denigrates our closest allies and even said this week that “I was never swayed by NATO. I always knew they were a paper tiger, and Putin knows that too, by the way.”)

The war claimed thirteen American lives, with close to four hundred wounded. The cost — to date — is roughly 40 billion dollars. We have depleted stocks of weapons and ammunition that will take years to replace, especially high cost missiles and aircraft. (We know the U.S. has lost four F-15E [fighters], 1 A-10 [ground attack], 1 E-3 [AWACS], 2 KC-135 [tankers], 2 C-130 [special operations configured transports], 17 MQ-9 [sophisticated drones], 1 MH-6 [specialized little helicopter] and there are rumors of additional helicopters lost.) Thousands of civilians killed in Iran, Lebanon, Israel and around the Persian Gulf. Oil prices soaring impacting the world’s economy. And more. For what?

Are we better off than we were six weeks ago? Strategically, Iran is. We look weak, chaotic, unhinged and untrustworthy as the world wonders where Trump will next declare “the end of civilization” is at hand. Trump is attempting to end this war in the same manner he ends everything. Create a crisis, claim to be fixing it, and then walk away when it gets too hard and pronounce that its not his problem, someone else will have to clean it up.

This is not the end of our nightmare. It is only the beginning.

A War Without Leaders, Only Zealots

Posted: April 5, 2026 | Author: | Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

One of the pictures released by the government of Iran showing the remains of U.S. aircraft destroyed on the ground during rescue operations to recover a second crewmember from a USAF F-15E shot down by Iranian forces on Friday. A massive operation successfully recovered the missing crew member but the recovery force had to destroy two specialized C-130 aircraft and at least two Black Hawk helicopters on the ground. Thankfully, all participants reportedly were recovered without casualties.

This morning we received the following Easter greeting from the President of the United States who believes, as do others in our country, that he was chosen by God to lead our country and who some Evangelical pastors compare to Jesus Christ. (I apologize for the language, but I see no reason to clean up Trump’s preferred presidential language.)

“Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!! Open the Fuckin’ Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell – JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah. President DONALD J TRUMP.”

This is not a joke or a hoax. These are the deranged postings of a sick man on his way to play golf at one of his courses in Northern Virginia. You know, the traditional way many Christians celebrate the holiest day of the liturgical year. It came on the heels of the previous day’s post.

“Remember when I gave Iran ten days to MAKE A DEAL or OPEN UP THE HORMUZ STRAIT. Time is running out — 48 hours before all Hell will reign (sic) down on them. Glory be to GOD! President DONALD J TRUMP”

If you ever thought that Iran might cave, those social media posts nearly guarantee that Iran will never give in and will work as hard as possible to make life hell for us, Israel and the Gulf states. Trump thinks he can bully anyone. To me, he sounds desperate. He is in over his head and does not know how to get out. Please note that the Iranians have yet to deploy one of their most deadly weapons — terrorist sleeper cells.

Oh, by the way, what he is threatening to do is, by the standards of international law, a war crime. But then he has been threatening Iran with promises to commit war crimes for quite some time now. His Secretary of Defense has also been promising that our troops will commit war crimes when he pledged at one of his “tough guy” press speeches on 15 March that there will be “no quarter, no mercy for our enemies.” Since our Civil War, our military has been taught that “no quarter” which means there will be no prisoners, everyone is to be massacred, is a war crime. It is also enshrined in the Hague and Geneva conventions. The U.S. Pentagon’s own war manual clearly states that it is a war crime. But then this is the same guy that vowed on 2 March that there would be “no stupid rules of engagement” and “no politically correct wars.” I do not know who is copying who with their blasphemous invocations of God and Jesus Christ, but at a recent prayer service in the Pentagon, Hegseth invoked both in his lust for killing. He is on record as saying that our troops need to continue dispensing death and violence in God’s name. It is a religious duty, according to his sick reasoning, in order to “save” western civilization, a belief he shares with many in Trump’s orbit. (Project 2025 anyone?) He actually pronounced a prayer that said in part, “let every round find its mark against the enemies of righteousness and our nation” and produce “overwhelming violence of action against those who deserve no mercy.” In their own words, both Trump and Hegseth think that they are on some kind of Crusade against Islam. Shoot, Hegseth even has tattoos all over his body referencing the Crusades. To name a few, his arm has a tattoo reading “Deus Vult” which is Latin for “God will it” and is linked to the First Crusade as a battle cry. On his chest he has a large Jerusalem Cross, also a link to the Crusades and a popular symbol for today’s white Christian nationalists. Another tattoo on his arm is a cross with a sword referencing the New Testament verse Mathew 10:34 which reads “Do not think that I have come to bring peace to the earth; I have not come to bring peace, but a sword!” I have no problem with anyone’s private beliefs. I have a huge problem when our Secretary of Defense is trying to turn our military into an arm of his and Trump’s efforts to create a white Christian nationalist country of which they are in charge. An exaggeration? I think not when you look at the record. Hegseth has fired over twenty senior Admirals and Generals in order to put in place officers more “loyal” to Trump and Hegseth. Not to the Constitution. To them. Most recently it was the Chief of Staff of the Army. In the middle of a war. Rumor has it that he was fired because he argued against putting U.S. troops into Iran. Hegseth has tampered with the promotion process destroying an apolitical system based on merit and instead is promoting people ideologically and politically aligned with his beliefs. Most recently he pulled four officers off of the Army’s promotion list to Brigadier General (a one star rank) — something previously unheard of by a Secretary of Defense. Two of the officers were black and two were women.

Just as an aside, if one ever wanted to make sure that no one in the Middle East will give you the time of day, start talking about Crusades against Islam. It is the one thing that will unite Arabs and Persians.

I was out of the country for most of March which gave me a chance to reflect on events in our country and to look at things through the eyes of our (former) allies and friends. It scares me deeply. I have been of the opinion that we could recover from the rampaging MAGA crowd that are out to destroy everything that traditionally makes us Americans. Now I am not so sure. When I think about the fact that this guy is the person that the plurality of Americans wanted as their president despite all that he has done, I know that there are no limits to his depravity and willingness to do anything to stay in power. Trump is a convicted felon and an adjudicated sexual predator that is on tape saying that he can abuse women because “when you’re a star, they let you do it. You can do anything…” This is the same guy that worked for months to overturn a free and fair election and when he failed, he unleashed a mob that attacked our seat of government and that was hell bent on killing the Vice President and the Speaker of the House. Why would anyone think that he would stop at anything, repeat, anything to get what he wants? Obviously I am not a physician, but anyone with half a brain can watch him speak and realize that he is ill — both physically and mentally. How desperate will he be to cement his legacy as the first autocrat to rule America and change our way of life? He is already busy slapping his name on anything around the District of Columbia that he can find and is planning to build monuments to himself all around the city. I am sure he knows more about the details of his proposed ballroom than he knows about the details of the war that he started. Meanwhile, his Cabinet, advisers and Republican (?) members of Congress let him do whatever pops into his sick mind.

Trump is only interested in his personal aggrandizement and wealth. Not in actually governing. Here are two examples of what he is doing with your tax dollars. The Department of State recently cut multiple programs to raise 1.2 billion dollars for Trump’s Board of Peace. All current members ante up one billion dollars each to join. Allegedly, the Board is formed to oversee the restoration of the Gaza Strip but let’s cut to the chase. The Chairman is Trump. For Life. Yes. The Chairman can override any vote of the rest of the Board. The Chairman controls the funds, exclusively. The Chairman decides who can or cannot be on the Board. Can you say slush fund?

Or how about this gambit? Trump is suing his Department of Justice for ten billion dollars. Ten billion of your tax dollars. He claims irreparable harm from the release of his tax returns by a contractor and from the lawful investigation into his theft of classified documents stored at Mar-a-Lago. Gee. Let’s think about who controls the Department. As Trump said, “But isn’t that a strange position to be in? I’ve gotta make a deal. I negotiate with myself.” He might as well. Our paper money is now going to be signed by him rather than the Treasurer of the United States. Another “historic” moment (it’s never happened in our history) and a sure sign of an entrenched autocrat.

Everything that is happening in the war with Iran was predictable. Indeed, even I predicted it in this space on 25 February before the war began. Trump and Hegseth either ignored the warnings from their experts or were bound and determined to attack regardless. Now the world is in a mess and no one trusts us at all. Not our friends, not our Allies, not our enemies. No one is likely to trust us for a generation, if then. One “Trump” can be explained away. Two “Trumps” and the rest of the world has to understand that another “Trump” could come along at any time. Our country asked for this and from the rest of the world’s view point, there is nothing to stop it from happening again. I will also point out, that we still have not heard Trump or anyone in his cabinet articulate the strategic objectives for our assault on Iran. Mostly they talk in tactical terms (all Hegseth knows how to do) and even then, they change everything based on which way the wind is blowing. There is a huge leadership void at the top of the government. Very dangerous.

Life is hard but it is harder when you’re stupid. Unfortunately, their stupidity is leading to the needless deaths of thousands of civilians. And now they are advocating for war crimes against civilians by attacking infrastructure that has no real military value. Our military men and women deserve better.

Amateur Hour Continues

Posted: March 7, 2026 | Author: | Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

The Persian Gulf. (Encyclopedia Britannica)

No one knows when the war in the Middle East will end. Government leaders continue to give multiple and often contradictory reasons for the attack and the strategic conditions that will end it. One thing is certain, we have a Commander-in-Chief that is unleashed, impulsive, and clueless. In his usual way of setting policy, and expecting it to be taken seriously, Trump set the terms of ending the war via Truth Social. In part he posted, “There will be no deal with Iran except UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!” As if they needed more incentive, the Iranians will now fight to the bitter end. There will be no unconditional surrender unless Trump plans to literally kill nearly everyone in the country. As I have stated often in these spaces, wars only end when the loser chooses to end them. No matter how bad things are, they will continue to fight until the attacker goes home or there is a negotiated settlement. There have been no wars settled by unconditional surrender since World War II. As if setting policy via social media was not enough, Trump shows us just how unserious he is by also including in his post “MAKE IRAN GREAT AGAIN (MIGA!).” Because, of course.

Ever the clever one, Karoline Leavitt, Trump’s spokesperson, when asked about what unconditional surrender means said, “When he as Commander-in-Chief determines that Iran no longer poses a threat to the U.S. and the goals of Operation Epic Fury have been fully realized, then Iran will essentially be in a place of unconditional surrender whether they say it or not.” Please see the above paragraph. There will be no unconditional surrender, Trump will just say it and go home claiming victory. Consequences be damned because the Iranians will not accept that as a permanent outcome. When asked by Time magazine reporters whether we should worry about retaliatory terror attacks on our homeland Trump replied, “I guess.” He went on to say “We think about it all the time. We plan for it. But yeah, you know, we expect some things. Like I said, some people will die. When you go to war, some people will die.” Well, that’s good to know.

Trump also claims that he will pick the next leader of Iran. Hubris or ignorance, you decide. Whichever you choose, he is of course fooling himself and trying to hoodwink us, the citizens of the United States in to believing that he somehow is the Master of the Universe. Let us remember that not only did Trump take out the Supreme Leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was also the spiritual leader for all Shi’ites. Saying that he will pick the next leader is akin to declaring that he will pick the next Pope. There are about 240 million Shia Muslims in the world (the largest sect with about 90% of all Muslims are the Sunni). The largest concentrations of Shi’ites are in Iran (about 68 million people), Iraq and Azerbaijan. There are also significant numbers of Shi’ites in Lebanon, Yemen and Afghanistan. To add to the equation, their leader was killed during Ramadan which takes place during the ninth month of the Islamic calendar, a holy month, and is believed to be the month where the Quran was revealed to the prophet Mohammed. None of them are going to let Trump pick the next leader.

The Washington Post reports that Russia is supplying targeting intelligence to Iran giving them the location of naval vessels, aircraft and other high value assets. The Secretary of the Treasury just announced that in order to keep the flow of oil going to Asia (the main buyers of oil coming through the Strait of Hormuz) the U.S. is issuing a temporary waiver for refiners, mainly in India, to buy Russian oil, which has been embargoed since Russia invaded Ukraine. So, let’s see, the longer the Strait remains closed, the more oil Putin can sell and thus save his nearly collapsed economy. And buy weapons to use against Ukraine. Are we sure Vlad doesn’t have something on his good friend Donnie? Nothing like acting in Putin’s interests to keep the war going while he makes money and helps to target Americans.

Meanwhile the disgraceful buffoon that calls himself the Secretary of Defense continues to strut and dance around while he brags about killing people. On a preview of an upcoming 60 Minutes interview he is asked about Russian involvement and said “we aren’t concerned about that.” He went on to say “the only ones that need to be worried right now are Iranians that think they’re gonna live.” Asked a similar question yesterday by a Fox News reporter Trump responded “What a stupid question that is to be asking at this time.” Such articulate and deep strategic thinkers. Recall that at a press conference this week the Secretary was asked about the American soldiers that were killed. He took the opportunity to berate the media for only reporting on the bad news in order to make Trump look bad. Because, of course, everything has to be about Trump.

One only has to know what the Secretary and the Trump administration think about the war right now is to look at what they are posting on social media. Most of their posts are memes splicing together scenes from video games, war movies and actual combat footage. Here is one example as reported in the Washington Post. “On Thursday, the White House also posted a video overlaying airstrike footage with the lyrics “Kaboom, kablow” from the viral rap song “Bazooka,” and another mixing clips of missile detonations with SpongeBob SquarePants. On Friday, the White House published another video referencing “Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas,” flashing the message “WASTED” — what the game’s players see when they die — atop missile footage showing trucks and people engulfed in flames.”

These are the people speaking for our nation. A school in Iran was bombed and killed dozens of elementary school girls and six Americans were killed in combat and our leaders think it is all a funny game.

Our military professionals are doing their job and doing it well. We pray that they are safe. Our government leaders are not only ignorant about the Middle East and amateurish in the formulation of strategy, but they also care little to nothing about our military men and women or the citizens of these United States.

Wag The Dog

Posted: February 25, 2026 | Author: | Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

On 19 February 2026, a banner displaying the face of Trump and a slogan appeared over the entrance to the Department of Justice (DOJ) building in Washington D.C. It appears that he is emulating his good friend Kim Jong Un. “Big Brother is watching you.” (Picture from Brendan Smialowski for Getty Images)

The president that campaigned on putting America first and criticized his predecessors for their military involvement around the world is preparing to use the military for the second time against Iran. So far, in the first year of his second term he has used military force in seven countries and threatened it in two more. The House of Representatives and the Senate have yet to approve any of his military actions despite the fact that Article I Section 8 of the U.S. Constitution gives Congress the exclusive power to declare war. The War Powers Act of 1973 requires the president to notify Congress within 48 hours of deploying troops and limits their involvement to 60 days unless approved for longer by Congress. Trump refuses to meet even that bare minimum.

Trump thought he could bully the Iranians by massing the most combat power in the region since 2003 during the Second Gulf War. The Iranians have other ideas. Trump wants total elimination of their ability to stockpile “nuclear fuel” and they say it is for domestic power generation. Obama had a deal limiting the Iranians’ ability to process uranium which included on site inspections. Trump tore up that agreement in 2018 and is now asking for essentially the same thing as was previously settled. As always, he creates a problem, returns to the status quo ante, and then claims that he solved a crisis. Why would the Iranians or any other country trust anything that he promises?

Indeed, the U.K. (in particular Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean), the UAE, and Saudi Arabia refuse to allow the U.S. to launch attacks from their countries against Iran. Others, such as Qatar, Egypt and other Middle East countries are extremely hesitant to allow it. Some are refusing to allow US military aircraft to fly over their territory which makes for some very long flights to reach targets in Iran.

This will not be Venezuela. Iranian air defenses are in disarray following last year’s attack on their nuclear facilities, but they still have a strong military capability.

The first step in military planning is to determine the desired end state. What do we want to see happen? How do we know we won and can go home? Everything else flows from that. So far the Trump regime has been unable to articulate their specific goals in attacking Iran. In recent weeks they have been all over the map as to what they intend to accomplish. Last night’s State Of The Union address to Congress would have been the logical opportunity to explain to the American public why we are going to send our sons and daughters, husbands and wives into harms way. He barely mentioned Iran and then in only very vague terms.

Therefore the mission is not clear to me and without a clear mission, it is difficult to plan. Is it to knock out all nuclear capabilities? Supposedly, we already did that. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, Trump’s primary international negotiator for everything (Calling Marco Rubio! Anyone seen the Secretary of State actually doing anything having to do with diplomacy?) said last week that “they’re probably a week away from having industrial-grade bomb-making material. And that’s really dangerous. So they can’t have that.” Where that analysis came from, no one knows. Trump himself continues to say that last year’s bombing attack on Iran by the U.S. and Israel “totally obliterated” all of their capabilities. Additionally, it is known that the Iranians currently have no weapons program to build a delivery system for a nuclear weapon even if they wanted to make one.

Is the mission to knock out the Iranians ballistic missile capability? Their missiles certainly pose a threat to our friends and allies in the region. However, it would be next to impossible to destroy all of their missile capability in one attack. It could only be done through a sustained campaign. The missiles are stationed all around the country and some are mobile. During the course of our campaign the Iranians could use them to retaliate against U.S. bases in the region or to attack infrastructure valuable to our friends in the area. Last summer they launched missiles against our base in Qatar in retaliation, however they provided advanced warning and precautions were taken to limit their impact. There is no guarantee the Iranians would only go for a face saving measure the second time around.

Is the mission regime change? Trump continually talks about knocking out Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Sometimes he talks about destroying the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the roughly 175,000 member branch of their Armed Forces that protect the regime and that is the real power supporting the Ayatollah in the country. To attempt that would result in a very long campaign, the kind of “forever war” that Trump swore he would never instigate. As we learned the hard way in Iraq and elsewhere, the people may want a change in leadership, but they do not want it replaced by the U.S. We are not “liberators” in their eyes, we are invaders.

How will we accomplish any of those potential missions? With an air campaign only? Sending troops into the country? Iran is a very large land mass with rugged terrain. It has a large and diverse population. Any ground attacks would be very costly in lives and treasure. Whatever the reasons or methods — and the president should explain why it is suddenly necessary to do something we have not seriously contemplated for decades — there is always the danger of planes getting shot down, or having mechanical issues or a dozen other things that could go wrong resulting in the death or capture of Americans. “Just because” is not good enough.

As it stands now, our aims are not clear and we should never commit military force when we do not know what we want them to do. Reports from several reputable news organizations indicate that senior military officers in the Pentagon are reluctant to use force against Iran. They understand that it will be no easy task. In retaliation Iran will create mischief (terrorism and missile attacks) in the region. They will try to close the Strait of Hormuz through which twenty percent of the world’s oil flows on ships. (Oil is a fungible commodity with a world-wide market so the impact on the price of oil will be felt everywhere.)

There are other human and practical costs. One of the carriers on its way to the region is the USS Gerald R Ford (CVN-78) — the other one now on station is the USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72) – which has been deployed for eight months already, much longer than the traditional six month deployment. The Ford is the same carrier that was pulled away from the Mediterranean Sea last fall to go to the Caribbean Sea, and now it is back to where it started without going home. It is a practical matter that people can only be stretched so far — not to mention the impact on their families — and maintenance on ship systems and aircraft can only be postponed for a limited time before things start to break. Additionally, our military is running low on certain types of ammunition. Missiles cannot be built in a day, a week, or a month. Think in terms of years to rebuild the stockpiles. Some we have given to Ukraine and Israel. A lot is expended to shoot down drones and ballistic missiles, especially in the Red Sea, that are constantly being fired by the Houthis in Yemen, which are themselves proxies for Iran. Surface to air missiles on the ships and those utilized by Army forces throughout the region such as Terminal High Altitude Air Defense (THAAD) and Patriot ballistic missile defense systems are in short supply. Similarly, we have a finite number of Tomahawk surface to surface missiles.

There may be another reason that Trump is threatening Iran. Despite his best efforts, he cannot make questions concerning the Epstein files go away. The net is getting ever wider and coming closer to him each day. The Epstein Files are not going away. They are like his shadow. They follow him everywhere and he cannot get away from them. When the king’s brother gets arrested, along with the British Ambassador to the U.S. he knows more fallout is coming. He is getting desperate to distract and turn our attention elsewhere. Iran anyone?