Terror In The Middle East
Posted: October 13, 2023 Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: Gaza, Hamas, Israel, Middle East War, Palestinians, Terrorists 1 CommentThe horrifying Hamas terrorist attack from the Gaza strip into Israel last Saturday continues to escalate. The situation is complicated and will get more so, but make no mistake, Hamas is a terrorist organization with one goal and one goal only — destroy Israel by killing Jews. The attack is considered the largest loss of Jewish life in one day since the Holocaust. It’s bad. Really bad. Hamas is evil on earth and no one should be confused about their goal or mix their murderous, immoral and depraved actions with any aspirations that Palestinians may have for autonomy and a free state. Hamas cares nothing about their fellow Palestinians and, in fact, are effectively using their friends and families as human shields along with the hostages kidnapped in Israel and taken back to Gaza.
According to the U.S. National Counterterrorism Center, Hamas was created in 1987 at the beginning of the first Palestinian Intifada (an uprising against Israel). It has roots in the Muslim Brotherhood and is concentrated in Gaza, although elements of the organization exist in the West Bank and other areas. In conjunction with the terrorist arm of Hamas, there is also political leadership that won elections in Gaza in 2006 giving them complete control of the population, and rejecting the government and agreements formed by the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO), Fatah, and the Palestinian Authority (PA) that nominally controls the Palestinian territories. Starting in the 1990s, Hamas periodically fired rockets into Israel and conducted small scale terrorist attacks in Israel. Over this time period, Israel periodically bombed Gaza in retaliation for the rocket and terror attacks and in 2005 conducted a large scale ground attack into Gaza to cripple the infrastructure and leadership of Hamas. There are slightly over two million Palestinians living in Gaza which covers about the same area in size as Philadelphia. It is considered the most densely populated territory on earth.
The attack into Israel on 7 October apparently took the Israelis completely by surprise. In military attacks, it is often possible to achieve tactical surprise (think an Army company getting ambushed). Occasionally, a military force may achieve operational surprise (think the Battle of the Bulge in World War II). It is nearly impossible to achieve a strategic surprise as occurred nearly a week ago. Ironically, in military case studies, the most discussed strategic surprise was the 1973 Yom Kippur War where Egypt and Syria completely surprised the Israelis, catching many of their units unprepared. Israel prevailed, but only after a bitter and hotly contested fight. It is too early for in-depth analysis at this point, and the focus should be on destroying Hamas, but it appears that there are similarities between 1973 and 2023. In the former case, Israeli politicians, intelligence analysts and the military considered the region to be relatively stable and that their enemies were not capable of fighting Israel’s superior military. In particular, Israel believed that air superiority was necessary for any successful ground attack and Israel ruled the skies. What they did not account for were Arab mobile air defense systems that provided a secure umbrella over their ground forces protecting them from Israeli air attacks. In 2023, Israeli intelligence analysts and politicians assessed that Hamas was a nuisance with their periodic rocket attacks, but not an imminent threat to national security. Israeli policies were geared towards normalizing the situation in Gaza through economic efforts (aid and allowing Gazans to work in Israel) and to achieve political stability by working with Arab countries to develop their de facto government and to contain Hamas. They were wrong. Hamas is not a “normal” organization and has no interest in acting in a rational manner. Their only mission is to destroy Israel and kill Jews. Exacerbating the slow military response in Israel is the fact that many troops normally stationed on the Gaza border were moved to the West Bank to protect Israeli settlements there and to northern Israel to deter Hezbollah from attacking from Lebanon. The Israeli forces on the border were overwhelmed by the coordinated, simultaneous and substantial influx of terrorists, something that the Israelis (and indeed much of the world) thought impossible for them to do.
Israel will prevail. Unfortunately, it is going to be ugly and there will be large scale loss of life and many of the casualties are and will be civilians.
There is one nagging thought that bothers me. Hamas had to know that the Israelis would respond with a large, overwhelming military response including a ground invasion. Israeli leaders are very clear that their mission now is to kill every member of Hamas. They intend to destroy Hamas so that they are incapable of ever attacking Israel again. This is a clear mission, but perhaps unattainable. My concern is that if Hamas anticipated this response, do they have some surprise in store for the Israeli forces entering Gaza? In and of itself, rooting out Hamas in Gaza, given that Hamas has prepared for this moment for years, will entail bloody, difficult building to building fighting with Hamas on their home turf knowing the lay of the land far better than the Israelis. That will be very difficult, even with the determination, courage and resolve that Israeli forces have in their DNA and through superior training. But is Hamas drawing them into a trap? Having once surprised the world, do they have one last trick up their sleeve? We will find out in the coming hours or days as the Israeli invasion is imminent.
Wars are easy to start and hard to end. A fact in military planning is that the loser decides when the war is over. If the enemy does not give up, if they keep fighting, however feeble their resistance may be, the conflict is not over. The Israelis will have to make it so painful that Hamas gives up. Their political and military leadership declared that they would only accept unconditional surrender, a very rare and difficult resolution to conflict. Since Hamas true believers are willing to die for their cause, even in suicide attacks, they are unlikely to quit, even if they have little hope of succeeding.
The next great humanitarian crisis is about to explode. There is no place for the civilians, many of whom do not support Hamas, to go in Gaza. The territory is bounded by Israel, the Mediterranean Sea and Egypt. Israel will not allow Gazans into Israel (nor should they). To date, Egypt is unwilling to allow refugees into their country — probably because they are afraid that they will never leave and that they would destabilize Egypt. They simply do not have the ability on their own to feed, shelter and protect a projected one to one and a half million refugees, especially as half of the population in Gaza is under 18.
Among other military aid and intelligence assistance the U.S. deployed the USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier along with the guided missile destroyers and cruisers in the strike group. Their purpose is to deter other bad actors from becoming involved in the war. The aircraft and cruise missiles in the strike group are a formidable capability that should make other groups and nations hesitate to aid Hamas or to create their own mischief. U.S. involvement in the current fighting will be avoided (not to mention that Israel does not want it), with the possible exception of special operations forces acting to rescue American hostages taken by Hamas and hidden in Gaza.
At any one time there are thousands of U.S. citizens in Israel on business, touring the holy land, or living in the country. Additionally, there are thousands of dual Israeli-US citizens living in Israel. The State Department is organizing evacuation flights out of the country but inevitably some U.S. citizens will be caught in the fighting (as some already have, at least 27 have been killed and 14 are missing) which will give U.S. military and diplomatic planners cause for concern. The carrier strike group is not configured to evacuate large numbers of civilians. With skill and a little luck, the evacuation flights will get everyone out that wants to go. Not all will want to. For the roughly 600 Americans believed to be working or living in Gaza, for now, they are on their own. They have no way out.
Expect this war to be a long drawn out conflict with large numbers of casualties. Do not underestimate the cruelty and depravity of Hamas. There will be despicable developments surrounding the hostages. Likewise, do not underestimate the determination of Israel to exterminate Hamas. Unfortunately, that will also bring disturbing stories of innocent civilians in Gaza killed and injured. Not because the Israeli forces are targeting them, but because there is nowhere for the civilians to go to be safe and Hamas is not in the least concerned about their well being.
Hamas must be destroyed. It is not going to be easy.
It’s That Time Of Year Again
Posted: September 16, 2023 Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: Appropriations Committee, Congress, Continuing Resolution, Debt Ceiling, Freedom Caucus, Government Funding, United States Constitution 1 CommentYou know it is Fall when the extreme members of the House of Representatives threaten to shut down the government again by failing to do their job and appropriate and authorize the funds needed to keep our country going. Same old tune, but this time with a few different lyrics.
Earlier this year, Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy (MAGA-CA) reached an agreement with President Joe Biden to raise the debt limit, thus ensuring that the United States would not default on its debts in accordance with the Constitution and that we would keep the U.S. and world economy working. As part of that deal, the two men reached an agreement for the ceiling on the amount of spending that would be authorized for the coming fiscal year, which begins on 1 October. Everyone breathed a sigh of relief and was ready to move on to the actual work of the Congress, which is funding the government. Well, almost everyone was ready to move on. All were ready to get on with business except for the MAGA Republicans of the Freedom Caucus. They claim that Speaker McCarthy was duped by the president into agreeing to spending limits higher than they wanted and that they had insisted on having as a condition for making Mr. McCarthy Speaker of the House. They started throwing a conniption fit early this summer and continued to disrupt “regular order” in the House upon returning to Washington this week.
Before going into the details about the House, let us first acknowledge that, so far, the Senate is doing their job. Under the leadership of Senator Patty Murray (D-WA) as chair, and Senator Susan Collins (R-ME) as vice-chair, the Appropriations Committee has all twelve of the necessary bills to fund the federal government ready to go for a full Senate vote. All are within the guidelines of the agreement with the president, with a few minor changes such as increasing the defense budget, and all have bipartisan support and will garner roughly two-thirds of the Senate voting in favor. There are no “poison pill” provisions included in it (amendments generally having to do with culture war issues to assuage some politician’s donors but that could keep the bill from passing). Effective leadership, cooperation, compromise and negotiation. What a concept!
Contrast that with the House where Speaker McCarthy, probably the weakest Speaker in my lifetime, cannot get his caucus to agree to the time of day. He has had to postpone several key votes because he does not have enough votes in his own party to pass them. Since most of the bills do include amendments that have draconian provisions that have nothing to do with spending, Democrats will not vote for them either. As the deadline approaches, the Speaker is contemplating a continuing resolution (CR) to temporarily keep the government functioning while negotiations continue. This means keeping spending levels at their current rate until new budgets are approved, as has often been the case over the last two decades. It is a very inefficient way to run things and serves mostly to keep the drama at a fever pitch while the various parties vie with each other to see who chickens out first and gives up on all or some of their demands. The proposed CR is a “clean” bill which means it only pertains to spending and does not include extraneous amendments that probably would not pass on their own, but get included as the best chance to see them pass.
Right now, the Freedom Caucus (made up of most of the members of the Sedition Caucus that voted to overturn the 2020 presidential election results) is refusing to vote for such a CR as a temporary solution. Many of them publicly and dare I say, joyously, anticipate the government having to shut down. This puts the Speaker in a real bind.
The House could pass a clean CR with moderate Republicans (there aren’t that many left) and Democrats voting for it. But the hard line right wingers in the House declared that if the Speaker did that, they would put forth a motion to “vacate” the Speaker’s chair. In other words, they would vote to “fire” Mr. McCarthy as the Speaker. (A key question relevant to their threat is who would take his place that could get enough votes to win? It took Mr. McCarthy 15 ballots over multiple days to secure the speakership.) Depending on the day, Mr. McCarthy only has a four or five person majority to pass anything on purely party lines. As MAGA loud mouth Representative Matt Gaetz (MAGA-FL) on Tuesday put it, “Continuing Resolution, motion to vacate.” Representative Bob Good (MAGA-VA) said, “We should not fear a government shutdown. Most of the American people won’t even miss it if the government is shut down temporarily.” The last shutdown was in 2018-2019 and lasted five weeks. The dispute then was funding the border wall that Trump (aka Inmate PO1135809) wanted. (Somehow, Mexico was not involved.)
The hard right wingers always claim that they want to save the taxpayers money when they shut down the government. In fact, the country loses money. According to the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office estimates, the last shutdown cost the economy 11 billion dollars over the first two quarters, of which three billion dollars was never recovered. The secondary and tertiary impacts of such shutdowns impact the entire economy, not just the government.
The situation is complicated by Mr. McCarthy’s Tuesday announcement of an impeachment inquiry into President Biden. This action is simply and purely a political gambit. Other Republicans have publicly expressed their view that there are no actions by the president that may be characterized as “high crimes and misdemeanors” as delineated in the Constitution Article II, Section 4. There are also significant legal questions as to whether there can be an inquiry without a vote authorizing it by the full membership of the House.
There are two political factors relevant to the inquiry. Primarily, Mr. McCarthy hoped to throw the Freedom Caucus a bone to chew on so that he could distract them while trying to finesse a solution for avoiding a government shutdown. It did not work. The Freedom Caucus has been focused on impeaching President Biden since the day he took office. In their view, the Speaker is late to the party and is only doing what they thought would happen earlier this year.
The second political reason is an attempt by the Freedom Caucus and other supporters of the ex-president and indicted criminal currently out on bail to mitigate the legal dilemmas he faces as well as his two impeachments. Trump himself was working hard to push his fellow MAGA Republicans to open impeachment proceedings. They want to create an atmosphere where they can demonstrate that all politicians are corrupt, not just Trump and thereby damage Mr. Biden while helping Trump in the run-up to the 2024 presidential election. Their actions are one more attempt at blowing up the rule of law and seeking retribution for holding Trump accountable.
Speaker McCarthy knows that he cannot deliver on all of the demands made by the Freedom Caucus. His problem is complicated by the fact that the Freedom Caucus itself is not unified in expressing what will satisfy them. Every time Mr. McCarthy gives into one demand, the goal posts move as additional demands are made. Here are examples of their key demands: that the final budget be considerably below the agreement between Mr. McCarthy and Mr. Biden and no more than pre-pandemic levels; defunding or significantly cutting funds for the “weaponized” Department of Justice (DOJ) and FBI; defunding the federal prosecutors that are pursuing cases against the indicted ex-president (end “political witch hunts”) ; funding to renew building the wall on the southern border; significant changes to immigration laws including eliminating or restricting legal asylum; cutting funds for Ukraine in its war with Russia (“no blank checks”); eliminating “woke” policies in the Department of Defense (DOD); cutting down or eliminating funds for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS); and on and on. None of these demands will be met in the Senate or signed into law by the president.
Mr. McCarthy will feel mounting pressure as the Senate completes its work and the president announces he would sign their appropriations bills into law. He will find himself in the politically uncomfortable position of being the sole obstacle to the normal functioning of the government and for the resulting shutdown. History shows that such shutdowns go badly for the party causing the shutdown when voters go to the polls. Mr. McCarthy would be well advised to look at what happened to his Republican predecessors. The Freedom Caucus is the successor to the Tea Party. The Tea Party caused similar headaches for Speaker John Boehner (who resigned) and Speaker Paul Ryan (who retired at the end of his term). The Freedom Caucus makes the old Tea Party look like a bunch of pushovers. The current iteration is out for revenge and feels like they are on a mission from which they will not be deterred. They want to burn it all down and bring in their cult leader from his beach club to take over.
The context and atmosphere today is dangerous. The next one to three months will be a real political roller coaster. I have no idea as to how it will unfold or be resolved.
We will get there, but it is going to be ugly.
MAGA Republicans Are Anti-Military
Posted: September 5, 2023 Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: Dobbs v Jackson, Joint Chiefs of Staff, National Security, Senator Tuberville, U.S. Military 1 CommentSince February of this year, Senator Tommy Tuberville (MAGA-Ala) has been holding up the confirmation process in the Senate for over 300 senior military officers. Originally, he claimed his “hold” on the nominations would last until the Department of Defense (DOD) changes its policy on women’s reproductive health care. Specifically, in the wake of the Supreme Court’s Dobbs v Jackson Women’s Health Organization that pushed laws concerning abortion to the states, he objects to the military paying for women to leave states where abortion is illegal or restricted to go to states where it is legal. Lately, he expanded his argument for freezing military promotions by saying that the military is “top heavy” and has too many generals and admirals.
His position may be a legitimate policy discussion to have, but the Senator from Alabama (or is he the third senator from Florida where he lives and his wife works?) does not want a policy discussion. He wants to single-handedly decide for himself what the military may or may not do. Both Republicans and Democrats have offered him a chance to bring an amendment to the floor to implement his desired changes. He refuses because he knows that his amendment will be defeated. There are Senate rules that can overcome his obstinate strangle-hold on our military, but they are laborious and time consuming requiring hours of work on the Senate floor for each nominee. A quick back of the envelope math problem shows that all other Senate work will be stalled for months while doing so. The Senator from Florida, oops, Alabama is also violating the spirit of cooperation and negotiation that gets things done in the Senate and is using the “hold” process in an unprecedented and harmful way. But, as we are finding, everything surrounding MAGA Republicans is “unprecedented” because they are there to break the system. In truth, this is one more example of their efforts to destroy our democracy and yet another anti-American stand.
The Senator has no personal military experience and is the same man that opined earlier this summer that white nationalists are not racists, they are “Americans.” In an answer to a question as to whether white nationalists should be allowed in the military, he said “Well, they call them that. I call them Americans.” He went on to say that “I look at a white nationalist as a Trump Republican.” Months later he finally conceded that perhaps white nationalists were possibly racist. This who he is. As a U.S. Senator, he may also need to take a civics class as after his election he proclaimed, “Our government wasn’t set up for one group to have all three branches of government — wasn’t set up that way. You know, the House, the Senate, and the executive.”
In todays Washington Post the secretaries of the Army, Navy and Air Force wrote a piece about the tremendous harm Senator Tuberville is causing to the military organization, the officers, their families and those who they would lead in dangerous situations. They explain why the senator is wrong on the facts, the damage being done, and that he “is putting national security at risk.”
Among the officers that have been nominated but not confirmed are the Chief of Naval Operations, Commandant of the Marine Corps and the Chief of Staff of the Army, three of the members of the Joint Chiefs of Staff responsible for advising our civilian leaders on areas of great responsibility. Their predecessors all were required to retire under U.S. law, so the positions are technically empty. Other officers are filling those spots on an “acting” basis, while still doing their primary jobs. More importantly, under the law, only Senate confirmed officers in those positions can carry out most of the duties of the offices. At the end of this month, General Mark Milley will, in accordance with the law, retire, thus leaving the position of Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff empty. At least twenty-five two and three star officers have had their retirement put on hold until the end of the year or until the hold is released. This impacts their future livelihoods as many had civilian jobs ready to go after their retirement, bought homes in the new locations and endured significant disruption to their spouses and children as they have their own jobs and schools to figure out while in limbo.
Other top positions held hostage to assuage one man’s ego include the Commander, Pacific Air Forces, Commander, Northern Command, Commanding General Marine Forces Japan, Commander Indo-Pacific Command, and Commander U.S. Pacific Fleet. All are critical to our nation’s security and to counter Chinese mischief in the Far East and to keep our country protected.
To defer to Senator Tuberville’s desires is to seriously impact the readiness of our nation’s fighting forces by lowering morale, imperiling individuals’ health and undermining recruitment and retention. Not all military bases are able to handle all health issues. It is common practice to move personnel to receive proper healthcare as needed. Service members cannot choose where they are stationed or live. In this particular case, DOD complies with the Hyde Amendment which forbids the use of federal funds for abortions except to save a woman’s life or in the case of rape or incest. The DOD policy as it is to pay for transportation and to allow time off with pay. To the Senator, this is not acceptable.
There are further impacts on unit morale, and in retention among the ranks. For example, the current officers at the Colonel, Lt. Colonel, Captain or Commander levels, the battle hardened core of our day-to-day leadership will look at the way a politician is willing to use them as pawns in his political games. There will surely be a calculus in their minds to take their vast leadership and technical experience to the civilian sector if they feel they will be mistreated in uniform. The next generation of generals and admirals taking up leadership positions in the next decade may not be there as they vote with their feet to leave.
Senator Tuberville claims that the DOD leadership and the Biden Administration refuse to compromise with him. What he really means is that they will not give in to him, and he seems quite happy about that. I suppose he enjoys the attention. Given the total context of his six month and counting hold, what it really means is that he could care less about the health, readiness, leadership or strength of our American fighting forces. Meanwhile our adversaries in Russia, China and North Korea are loving it.
United States of America v. Donald J. Trump
Posted: August 2, 2023 Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: 2020 Election, 2020 Insurrection, Constitution, Electoral College, Special Counsel, Trump Indictment Leave a commentFor the third time this year, the 45th ex-president was indicted yesterday. This time it is on four counts relating to his attempt to overturn the 2020 election and keep himself in power. Yesterday was an historic, if ultimately sad, day for America. For over 240 years, nothing like this happened. The hallmark of our democracy was the peaceful transfer of power following the certified results of elections. The ex-president (aka “the Defendant”) broke that tradition through a multi-pronged, coordinated attempt to overturn a free and fair election in order to retain power for himself. He seriously degraded wide-spread trust in our system and continues to do so today as he whines about “election interference” and a “weaponized” Department of Justice (DOJ). He may be the biggest threat to our democracy in our history, certainly since the Civil War. It is not a threat from abroad. The threat is coming from inside the house.
I recommend that you read the indictment for yourself. (Find an annotated version here.) It is an easy read — what is known as a “speaking indictment” — that spells out in plain language the key elements of the four charges brought against him. The longest part of the document lays out the case of how, and why, the Defendant and his six un-indicted co-conspirators, tried to empanel fake electors in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, New Mexico, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin to support the ex-president in seeking a win in the Electoral College by replacing the legitimate electors voting for Mr. Biden. Failing that, they hoped to create enough confusion that the decisions as to who gets the electors’ votes would be sent back to the individual states or sent to the House of Representatives where the Defendant would be declared president. It was a far-reaching conspiracy.
A necessary element of the plan was to bring Vice President Mike Pence into the scheme in order to get the slates of fake electors into the certification proceedings. As we know, Mr. Pence did not give in to the ex-president’s demands, but the indictment yesterday details the tremendous pressure brought against the Vice President to get him to cave to their demands. According to the document, the attempts to overturn the election results continued after the Capitol building was cleared and the House and Senate had reconvened. While Jack Smith, the Special Counsel overseeing the investigation, did not explicitly implicate the ex-president in directing the assault on the Capitol on 6 January, he makes it clear that sending the mob to intimidate Congress was part of the larger plot to undo the election.
As the criminal indictments mount against the ex-president — and a fourth indictment may be forthcoming in the days ahead in Georgia — it is worth contemplating the state of our nation had he succeeded. Our democracy would be wrecked. Probably, there would be some sort of martial law in place in many parts of the country. I do not say that frivolously as the indictment recounts how the plot participants were anticipating possible wide-spread protests should they succeed and opined that that was why there was an Insurrection Act as part of federal law. Without going too far into the specifics, the Insurrection Act allows the president to suspend Posse Comitatus which prohibits the Armed Forces from carrying out law enforcement activities. In other words, the president can deploy military and National Guard troops in the United States to suppress a declared insurrection or rebellion or to help in natural disasters. It has been used by presidents in the past, including to enforce desegregation laws in the 1950s and 1960s and to aid in preventing looting following hurricanes. Since the Defendant is running again for president, it is worth considering what kind of president he would be since he was pushing hard to overturn a free and fair election by all means at his disposal.
In his brief remarks last evening, Jack Smith noted that “the men and women of law enforcement who defended the U.S. Capitol on January 6 are heroes. They’re patriots, and they are the very best of us. They did not just defend a building or the people sheltering in it. They put their lives on the line to defend who we are as a country and as a people. They defended the very institutions and principles that define the United States.” In other words, the attack was not just a one off. It was not an unforeseen anomaly. It was part of a conspiracy to overthrow our democracy. The Defendant has shown no remorse over what he did. He will try again. He learned a lot in his first attempts to keep himself in power. He will succeed the second time if given the chance.
There will be much wailing and gnashing of teeth by those that support the ex-president. They will claim that he was duped by his lawyers. They will say it is a First Amendment right to question an election. They will claim all sorts of feeble defenses for the Defendant. We know who the ex-president is. We know his morals, we know his lack of respect, we know his disdain for the Constitution, we know that he is working hard to be a dictator. We have known that for a long time. I am totally disgusted by the elected Republican officials that continue to support an indicted criminal or that remain silent. It is clear that they have no respect for the rule of law, the Constitution or the American people. They only have a blind devotion to one man in order to preserve their own power. This is not the United States that I thought I knew. As a retired naval officer, I take my oath to support and defend the Constitution seriously. Many of my fellow service members have given their lives in defense of the Constitution. It means something to those of us that understand what we are saying and doing. Clearly, the Defendant and his supporters in elected office have no understanding of that oath. None.
This is a grave development that none of us should celebrate. This is a sobering situation that puts our Republic and democracy in danger. This is serious stuff. Our national character is at stake. Our standing on the world stage as a beacon of democracy to the rest of the world is at stake. Benjamin Franklin is often quoted saying that we have a Republic, “if you can keep it.” This will be a major test of our ability to do so.
We Are Not Alone In The Universe
Posted: July 28, 2023 Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: Aliens, MAGA Republicans, National Security, U.S. Military, UAP, UFOs Leave a commentThis week the House Oversight Subcommittee on National Security, Border, and Foreign Affairs held hearings to investigate Unexplained Anomalous Phenomena (UAP), formerly known as UFOs. This is not the first Congressional hearing concerning UAP, however this may be the most unserious one ever. In the past year or so, there have been hearings attempting to understand possible national security threats posed by UAP. Additionally, there are military and civilian safety of flight issues surrounding their possible existence. More to the point, there are UAP, the real questions are what are they, and where do they come from?
In his testimony, the star witness, a former Department of Defense (DOD) intelligence officer named David Grusch, claimed that they do exist and that they are extra-terrestrial. Not only that, as Dana Milbank reports in the Washington Post, he claimed the U.S. government has intact aircraft, dead pilots, and “non-human” evidence of their other-worldly existence. For over a century, according to Mr. Grusch, the U.S. government has covered up its knowledge of such activity and hidden evidence in an effort to “gaslight” the public and to allow the federal government to lie to our citizens. Hold that last thought, I’ll come back to it.
He offered no proof, evidence, or even a single fact that could be corroborated.
Earlier this year, Sean Kirkpatrick who is in charge of the DOD office investigating UAP testified that they have “no credible evidence thus far of extraterrestrial activity, off-world technology, or objects that defy the known laws of physics.” Other federal agencies, such as NASA, concur in that conclusion.
My own view matches that of Mr. Kirkpatrick. We on Earth have no knowledge of any other-worldly beings or spacecraft. However, I do think it likely that there are other beings in our universe. We just have not met them yet. I have no inside information or conspiracy theories to back that up. It just seems that with a universe so large that we do not totally understand its full size, the odds are that there must be other beings out there somewhere.
That said, they have not visited Earth. My primary reason for thinking so is exactly as Mr. Kirkpatrick stated. There is no evidence and in my mind, given the “known laws of physics,” there cannot be any to find. I am not a scientist of any sort, much less a physicist, but I am a reasonably educated person with common sense. When talking thousands of light years of travel to get here, how could any biological being make it? Not to mention that the size of the UAP spotted to date are far too small to carry beings and all of the logistical support needed for a trip of impossibly indeterminate time and distance. Even if manned by robots or other mechanical replacements for living beings, the practical aspects of the undertaking create obstacles too large to overcome.
There is, of course, one major flaw in my thinking. It could be that I, and others, have a failed sense of imagination. The terrorist attacks on 11 September and the insurrection on 6 January were unimaginable before they happened, demonstrating one human failing is an inability to imagine the unimaginable. Perhaps there are physical laws of the universe that we have yet to discover that undermine all that we think we know. Such a development is theoretically possible and cannot be discounted. Yet, where is the proof that those obstacles were overcome? In this age where overwhelming numbers of people literally carry a camera everywhere they go, how come no one has video or even a photo clear enough to discern the true nature of the object?
This conclusion is not meant to disparage anyone that has ever reported a UAP. They saw what they saw and I was not there. However, numerous studies have shown that reported UAP were weather balloons, birds, reflected sunlight, natural phenomena or man made objects. From personal experience I know that weather anomalies of pressure differentials, cold air over warm air and other naturally occurring events can cause technical equipment such as radar to produce false images. I experienced similar anomalies observing objects miles further away than I should reasonably be able to see them. Atmospheric conditions can cause light to bend over the horizon and travel further and in different directions than expected. It happens. Sometimes our brain deceives us. (Think mirage in the desert.) There is, of course, some small number of never explained sightings. These should be explored. From a national security and air safety perspective we need to know if there are things flying around space and in our skies that we do not know about. It is possible that those UAP are experimental air or space craft tested by a foreign power or even our own military. Remember that in the 1980s there were reports of mysterious objects spotted over the desert in Nevada and other areas of the far west that were reported as (then) UFOs. We later learned that there was a “secret” base in the desert where the U.S. Air Force F-117 Nighthawk was based and the UFOs were the first stealth fighter aircraft.
So, back to the thought I first raised above. Why would a Republican controlled House subcommittee hold public hearings where the star witness claims, among other things, that the U.S. worked a deal in the 1930s with Benito Mussolini with the assistance of Pope Pius XII to obtain an alien spacecraft, or that a defense contracting company has a warehouse containing an alien spaceship as big as a football field or any of the other unbelievable statements for which he has no proof? Primarily because Mr. Grusch also ardently testified that the U.S. government (aka: “The Deep State”) has been consistently lying to the American people, is engaged in a massive cover-up and is running secret operations to suppress the truth-tellers. Sound familiar? It is one more step in executing a MAGA Republican plan to discredit the federal government, undermine its authority, feed every coo-coo conspiracy they can find, and generally bring everything into question to create chaos. As usual.
We need serious and real efforts to identify UAP and their impact on national security. I think that, so far, they are all of this planet. However, it can be a fascinating enterprise to contemplate other beings in our universe. It has great moral, philosophical, religious and scientific implications. So many questions and almost no answers. Of one thing I am sure. We are not alone in the universe.
MAGA Autocrats
Posted: July 18, 2023 Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: Autocrats, Democracy, Donald Trump, Fascism, Politics, Presidential Election, United States Constitution Leave a commentIn recent weeks, the twice impeached, twice indicted, sexual abuser and former president Donald J. Trump has openly formulated his plans to turn the presidency in a second term into a centralized autocracy. He is directly telling us that he wants to create a fascist administration should he return to office.
There. I said it. I used the “F” word. He fashions himself to be a modern day Mussolini or perhaps more appropriately, he wants the same power as Putin, Xi, Orban and the other strong men he so openly admires.
As outlined in a recent New York Times article that encapsulates the information on Trump’s campaign website, his campaign speeches and on-the-record interviews with key Trump advisers past and present, he intends to weaponize the government in order to “demolish the deep state. We will expel the warmongers from our government. We will drive out the globalists. We will cast out the communists, Marxists and fascists. And we will throw off the sick political class that hates our country.”
The plan is based on a “unitary executive theory” that has its roots in Article II, section 2 of the Constitution that lists the duties of the President and Vice President, how long they serve, how they are to be elected and other provisions of their offices. Some interpret the article as giving the president complete control over the executive branch, rejecting the idea that the Constitution created overlapping responsibilities for the three branches of government, thereby creating checks and balances. Under the unitary executive theory, independent agencies created by Congress — such as the Federal Reserve, Federal Trade Commission, Federal Communication Commission and others — should be brought under direct control of the president and cannot make independent decisions as they do now (subject to Congressional funding and challenges in court). As explained in the New York Times, Trump and his advisers are openly advocating, and already taking steps to implement, their goal “to alter the balance of power by increasing the president’s authority over every part of the federal government that now operates, by either law or tradition, with any measure of independence from political interference by the White House.” Their goal extends beyond the independent agencies as they also want to purge career officials in the intelligence community, defense department, state department and justice department that are not “loyal” to Trump and most especially those that worked to temper his ambitions during his term. He wants total and complete unfettered power to do as he pleases. To further strengthen that power, the advisers to Trump claim that he has the absolute ability to impound funds within the executive branch. That means that even as Congress budgets and authorizes funding for various cabinet and agency activities, under the unitary theory, the president does not have to use those funds as they were intended. As the executive, he can move funding into or out of any area he chooses.
During his time as president, Trump tried to implement portions of this plan. Remember that he claimed during a speech in 2019 that “I have an Article 2, where I have the right to do whatever I want as president.” Near the end of his term he signed an Executive Order giving him the right to fire career government employees. Known familiarly as “Schedule F” its intent was to remove anyone associated with policy making that did not do exactly as the president wanted. The order was rescinded by President Biden, but Trump stated that it would be reinstated under his presidency. Such an order would give him the means to remove the “political class” that he reviles and replace them with Trump sycophants. Apparently technical expertise, experience, and knowledge would no longer suffice to work in the government, only loyalty to Trump and Trumpism count. The civil service system created over a hundred years ago would be out and the old, rotten practices of the 19th century would return where political favoritism and even bribes were the basis for entering the government work force.
Trump, his advisers and his campaign all openly espouse these proposed policies where Trump is all powerful. As I have said many times in this space, autocrats tell you up front what they plan to do. It is only a matter of whether or not they can pull it off. Following his surprise election inn 2016, Trump and his supporters were slow to understand how to implement changes. Additionally, senior officials in his administration worked to stop or moderate his most extreme ideas. Only at the very end of his administration did Trump figure out how to use his powers, such as bypassing the “advise and consent” role of the Senate for filling senior positions (“I like ‘actings'”). This time around, the key elements and advisers are already in place and are already identifying personnel to fill key positions. There is a network behind the scenes putting together the plan in places like the Heritage Foundation, the America First Policy Institute, the Center for Renewing America, and the Project for 2025 — think tanks with key former and future advisers to Trump at work delineating policies and transition strategies.
Why are they so brazenly up front about their plans? First, they noted the lack of push back from “establishment” Republicans when Trump and his MAGA supporters in Congress attack the Department of Justice (DOJ) and the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI). They find this encouraging and tacit approval of their plans. Second, they argue that if they explain their agenda now, when Trump is elected he will have a “mandate” to carry out his plan.
The scale of the MAGA effort to transform our democracy is astonishing and well established. Should Trump not win the nomination, the effort will remain in place for the Republican nominee, whoever it is, with plans to implement it regardless of Trump’s absence. In particular, it would seem that Governor DeSantis (FL) could benefit from this organization as he has already instituted many of these measures in his own state.
This much is clear. Should any Republican win the 2024 election, the MAGA wing of the party intends to carry out the mission they have set for themselves. It is becoming increasingly clear that the 2024 presidential election will have one candidate that supports our democracy and one that supports autocracy. As Trump’s former personnel chief John McEntee explained to the New York Times reporters, “Our current executive branch was conceived of by liberals for the purpose of promulgating liberal policies. There is no way to make the existing structure function in a conservative manner. It’s not enough to get the personnel right. What’s necessary is a complete system overhaul.”
The Rule Of Law Prevails
Posted: June 10, 2023 Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: FBI, Trump Indictment, U.S. Constitution 1 Comment“The classified documents TRUMP stored in his boxes included information regarding defense and weapons capabilities of both the United States and foreign countries; United States nuclear programs; potential vulnerabilities of the United States and its allies to military attack; and plans for possible retaliation in response to a foreign attack. The unauthorized disclosure of these classified documents could put at risk the national security of the United States, foreign relations, the safety of the United States military, and human sources and the continued viability of sensitive intelligence collection methods.” — An excerpt from the indictment of Donald J. Trump
As most of us know by now, the twice impeached, once indicted, and found in another court to be liable for sexual assault and defamation, former president, is again, criminally indicted for his actions. To me, the indictment announced by Trump on Thursday and unsealed to the public by the Department of Justice (DOJ) on Friday is the most egregious and damning offense of his to date. (Read an annotated transcript here.) One could hardly believe that a former Commander-in-Chief of the United States military would put our entire national security at risk. And for what? We do not know at this point whether it was his ego, for money, for childlike reasons (“mine!”) or for all of that. The acronym to understand people’s motivation for espionage is MICE (money, ideology, compromise, ego) and any given spy might be motivated by one or more of those reasons. We may never know Trump’s motivation, but it is a serious blow to our country’s security. We can likely guess the motivation for the other person named in the indictment Mr. Walt Nauta, as he is described as totally loyal to Trump and did much of the actual movement of the material at Trump’s direction. Then he lied about it to the FBI and a grand jury.
The indictment is thorough. It also is based primarily on information from those close to Trump, not FBI interviews or surveillance or other surreptitious means. It is based on information such as notes, photographs and text messages between and from his former attorneys, staffers and others. Apparently, all one had to do was walk around Trump’s club at Mar-a-Lago to view classified documents because the material was variously kept on a stage in the ballroom, in a bathroom, in Trump’s bedroom, easy access storage areas and at least some of it was taken to Trump’s golf course in Bedminster, New Jersey. The audacity of his actions are only matched by the callous and criminal exposure of our nation’s secrets. He literally put people’s lives in danger for his own personal purposes. Hundreds of events took place in his clubs where the information was kept and literally thousands of people attended those events. It will be nearly impossible to assess who had access to the material and whether or not any of it was copied or photographed or stolen. Or sold. Or given away.
Read the indictment. It is an easy read, straightforward and mostly free of obscure legalese. It is startling in what it contains. There are 37 separate charges against Trump for violating seven federal laws. Mr. Nauta faces six charges, mostly for conspiracy to obstruct justice with Trump, concealing evidence and false official statements. 31 of Trump’s charges are individual charges for keeping national security documents he as was not authorized to have. Reliable sources suggest that there were far more classified documents in Trump’s possession, probably over one hundred, but they may be too sensitive to use as evidence in a trial because of their content.
This is no administrative error or careless paperwork. The indictment makes clear that Trump knew exactly what he was doing and that he carelessly disregarded the impact of his actions. To which I might add, as per usual. If one takes the time to read and think about what is happening, Trump’s actions have no relevance or comparison to similar discoveries of classified documents in former Vice President Mike Pence’s or President Joe Biden’s homes and offices. Much will be made of the fact that Mr. Pence’s investigation ended without action and no one has brought charges against Mr. Biden. When their papers were discovered they took immediate action to cooperate fully with the relevant agencies and voluntarily opened their homes and offices to thorough and complete searches. Trump ignored subpoenas, hid documents from court ordered searches and openly showed them to people with no need-to-know or security clearances. They most definitely are not the same. To say so is to try and hide Trump’s criminal behavior. And please! Give Hillary Clinton a rest. There is simply no comparison even as die hard MAGA supporters try to obfuscate what Trump did. That said, we should be very clear that this is only an indictment. He will have a chance in court to defend himself and the prosecution must convince a jury of his peers — ordinary Floridians doing their duty — that he is guilty beyond the shadow of a doubt. No guaranteed thing.
This is a big deal. It is also a very sad deal. I take no pleasure in his indictment, although I do believe it is fully justified and necessary. It is sad on the first level because we should not have to worry about a president of these United States carelessly or deliberately exposing state secrets for his own purposes. It is also sad because the consequences of this necessary indictment are unknown. Trump is now the first and second former president to be indicted on criminal charges (his sexual assault case was in a civil trial that resulted in him having to pay monetary damages, not a criminal trial), We have never experienced this in our history and have no idea how it will play out. It could be quite damaging to our country as for nearly the past eight years we have had to deal with this man who is interested only in his own aggrandizement, greed and power. I fear that given a chance, he will take the whole country down with him should he be found guilty on these or other charges sure to follow later this summer in Georgia for violating election laws (“I just want to find 11,780 votes”) and for violating federal laws in conjunction with efforts to overthrow the 2020 election.
I am saddest of all about the reaction from most Republican elected officials including the Speaker of the House, Congress men and women, Senators, governors and on and on and on. Some of these elected officials are openly or implicitly advocating for violence against the agents, prosecutors, and judges that are trying to uphold our laws. In fact, Trump himself posted a picture of Jack Smith, the special prosecutor in this case, and disparaged his wife and family in a temper tantrum that doubled as a thinly veiled hint to his cult members to take action against him and his family. Some statesman. Here is the hidden kicker. Nothing in our laws or Constitution preclude an indicted individual from running for office. He could even run if he is convicted. He can run while in jail. A convicted felon in jail can be elected president. Only impeachment precludes someone from serving as president.
Some politicians incorrectly accuse President Biden of directing the indictment. Really?! Are they that ignorant or are they deliberately trying to destroy faith in our judicial system? Mr. Biden had no say in the matter. The indictments were handed down by a group of American citizens formed into a grand jury. The special prosecutor presented evidence to them as to the alleged crimes committed and they independently voted to indict. It is America at work. It’s how we roll. If the majority of elected officials in one of the two political parties of the United States are willing to put their allegiance to a cult leader over their stated oath to uphold and defend the Constitution of the United States then they are showing us who they are as people. Check their integrity dip stick and you will find that they are running on empty.
I am saddened but not surprised by Trump’s indictment. It is deserved. The process will play out. The indictment likely contains only the tip of the iceberg as to all of the evidence that will be presented at trial, but what is in it, is damning. Yet, the jury gets to decide if Trump is guilty and his attorneys can present evidence in his defense. It is our judicial system at work. Open and there for all to see. Nothing nefarious. I wish we as a nation did not have to go through this but Trump brought all of this crashing down on his own head. All he had to do was comply with the rules. He chose not to do so. And then he lied about it. Then he tried to cover it up. Now he is being held accountable. Sad but fair.
I am flabbergasted by the majority of Republican officials who continue to try and make him the victim of some evil conspiracy and in retaliation want to defund the FBI and the DOJ. Defund law enforcement! So much for the patriotic party of law and order. That group is gone. I am ever more incredulous as they claim that this is an attempt to interfere with the 2024 presidential election. They shout from the rooftops that he is a declared candidate and therefore should not and cannot be indicted. How is that a thing? He is not the Republican nominee, he is a candidate running for office. While I admit that the timing could get tricky, one would have to be nuts to follow their logic. As president he could not be prosecuted. Now that he is a self-declared candidate he cannot be prosecuted either? That means any person could declare themselves a candidate, raise a little money, give a few speeches and say that they cannot be prosecuted because they are running for president. Right now his legal status is the same as any other citizen of our great country. And that’s a good thing.
This indictment is not a political instrument. It is not even about the Presidential Records Act or archival material or any of the other smoke screens floating out there. This case is about our national security. Period.
We are in uncharted waters. In my mind, we need to hold him accountable. Otherwise, future presidents may think that they are immune from the laws of our country. I am holding my breath about how our country reacts. Rabble rousing governors and members of Congress are using this indictment for their own political purposes and in so doing are playing with fire. Many would be happy to see political violence break out. As I have written in this space before, there are some in the Republican Party — and dare I say in what is now the Republican main stream, including Trump — that want to burn it all down in order to rebuild in their own image the country that they want, rather than the one the majority of us deserve.
America Held Hostage
Posted: May 8, 2023 Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: Appropriations, Budget, Debt Ceiling, MAGA Republicans, Trump, U.S. Constitution Leave a commentAs traditionally happens in this century, a Republican controlled House of Representatives is holding the nation’s debt ceiling hostage to get concessions from a Democrat president. So far, despite the cliff hanging last minute resolutions of the past, the U.S. has never defaulted on its debts. This time it feels different. I’ll explain why below.
As I have written in this space before, it is important to remember that the debt limit is based on commitments already made by the U.S. government based on the budget and appropriations authorized by past Congresses. It is not about new spending. It is about paying for past commitments, much like using a credit card to pay for a new suit and then later having to pay the credit company for the clothes you are already wearing. The laws creating the debt ceiling can be traced to the U.S. entry into World War I and were designed to make it easier for the government to expend funds in time of war. Since 1960 the debt ceiling has been raised 78 separate times, 49 times under Republican presidents and 29 times under Democratic presidents. Indeed, it may surprise you to know that the debt ceiling was raised three times under the last administration with no muss, no fuss and in a bipartisan vote.
Why the debt ceiling is important can be complicated. Likewise, so is the impact of failing to raise it this time. In part, no one knows exactly what will happen because the U.S. has never defaulted on its obligations to pay creditors. However, most economists and financial experts believe that a default, perhaps even the threat of a default as we inch closer to the deadline, could have catastrophic consequences for the U.S. economy and to the world economy. As Catherine Rampell succinctly outlines it in an opinion piece in the Washington Post, based on interviews with leading experts on the subject, the result would be a “financial Armageddon.” Briefly, much of our and the world’s investments and financial institutions are based on the ironclad belief in U.S. Treasury bonds. The U.S. has always made good on the interest and principal payments for those bonds. They are the bedrock of the financial system because they have always been considered risk free. If U.S. bonds are deemed unreliable and they are down graded, it has a cascading effect on other assets. As a result, interest rates would rise across the board, the stock market would plummet, companies holding bonds that count on bond interest payments for revenue and investments could collapse, investors accepting bonds as collateral could call in the money owed, which without the bonds and their interest, could cause borrowers to go bankrupt and if all of that happens at the same time, the system simply would collapse.
Kind of a big deal. That summary also does not mention that Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, military salaries, government workers salaries, etc. etc. would not be paid. Some believe that “selective” payments of certain bills over others could mitigate the impact of a full default but no one in government is sure how that would work, who decides and whether it is even legal under current laws.
That is why the MAGA Republicans are holding the debt ceiling hostage. The consequences are considered to be so dire, that surely the president must concede to their draconian demands in order to save the world. Bwaaaahahahaaa.
In theory, we have already broken through the ceiling. In practice, through the use of “special measures” Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen has been able to keep paying the bills. She now says that come 1 June, the special measures will no longer be able to meet the payments required.
The Republican controlled House did pass a debt ceiling increase in a bill last week. Many of the Republicans that voted for it expressed their opinion that it would never make it into law but rather that it was just a starting point for negotiations with the president. In fact, President Biden is scheduled to meet with the leaders of both parties in the House and Senate to discuss the issue tomorrow. The problem is that President Biden says he will not negotiate with terrorists. Well, I said that. He said he would not negotiate over the debt ceiling but was happy to do so for the budget and appropriations. The Speaker of the House refuses to separate the issues. Probably, because the House bill passed last week is so extreme, he knows it will not pass on its own and thus he must hold the debt ceiling hostage in order to squeeze out concessions.
Please note that President Biden put forth his budget over a month ago and the Republicans have yet to present their version of the budget, only the vague provisions in their debt ceiling bill. (A quick primer on U.S. government. The budget is the desired spending requirements and where, the Appropriations process is where the actual allocation of funds occurs and the Authorization committee allows for funds to be spent. The bills usually go through a lengthy committee process that involves detailed negotiations. That is the “regular order” that the president would like to see happen rather than the high stakes game playing out now.)
Here are some of the highlights of the bill pushed through by the MAGA Republicans in the House. The actual bill is hundreds of pages long, but here are areas that have drawn the most attention. The debt ceiling will only be extended until March of 2024. Thus if the president accedes to all of their demands, we will be in the same situation in less than a year anyway and an election year at that. They demand a 22% cut in all “non-defense discretionary spending.” They also say Social Security and Medicare are off the table. As Dana Milbank explains, that means that the areas cut will, among others, include the FBI, border security, airport security, highway construction, veterans health benefits, food stamps, national parks and a whole lot more. If they decide not to cut 22% from some programs (remember that they have not said where the cuts will come from, only that they are required), then the cuts will be more than 22% in some areas. Should this become law, it will have a devastating impact on our economy. Economists warn that the provisions of the current bill would greatly increase unemployment, significantly slow economic growth and raise the probability of a recession in the coming months.
Why would the MAGA Republicans want to do that? Two things come to mind. One, is if the economy is significantly disrupted, it increases Republican chances to retake the White House and the Congress in 2024. That’s the most charitable scenario. The second reason for playing with the economy is much more nefarious in my mind.
By definition, MAGA Republicans are ardent supporters of Trump, Trumpism and the insurrectionists on 6 January. Trump tried to overthrow the government in order to keep himself in the presidency. There is no question about that. Fake electors. Attacks on voting machine companies. Pleas to find phantom voters — “I just want 11,780 votes.” Fomenting violence against the Congress to preclude a fair and peaceful transition of power. It is all there. They are domestic terrorists. Too strong a statement? I think not. What else would we call people that supported overthrowing the duly elected government of the United States? If they supported Osama Bin Laden they would be called terrorists. He didn’t fly the planes into New York and Washington DC. Yet, clearly he was a terrorist. How is it different in this case? I cannot believe that anyone in these united states would support Trump for anything other than a long prison term. I cannot think of one good policy or decision that he made. But even if you named twenty wonderful things that he did, sorry, game over. He tried to foment a coup to overthrow the government. End of discussion. It did not work but I think he and his supporters will try again. Yet increasingly, Trump’s actions are being normalized. He has an upcoming one hour “town hall” on CNN. That is normalizing his actions and legitimizing his candidacy. To date, no other candidates have a one hour town hall scheduled. Why give him his infomercial to spread lies?
What does all of this have to do with the debt ceiling? My point is that there are MAGA Republicans willing to do anything to get rid of President Biden and bring in Trump (or some other autocrat wannabe like him). If that means tanking the world economy and throwing everything into chaos, then so be it. Terrorists use every means available to gain their desired end state.
I have absolutely no doubt that there are members of the House that would be perfectly happy to see the U.S. default on its debt. Just the price of doing business to create the conditions for an autocrat to assume power.
There are ways to stop the madness. I am not sure that there are any Republican “moderates” left in the House that could be counted upon to do the right thing. They all voted for the current mess of a bill that we have now. Yet, the Speaker only has a four vote majority. There may be five or ten Republicans willing to break ranks and join the Democrats to pass a reasonable debt ceiling bill. There are at least 18 House districts where Republicans won, but President Biden won the presidential vote handily. The Democrats already have a bill in committee that could be used to create a “discharge petition” that under certain rules, could bring a bill to the floor despite the Speaker’s objections. It requires the signed support of the majority of the House, which while a long shot, has a chance. Unfortunately, the window between proceeding with collecting the signatures and the date of default is very narrow.
Another option may be the 14th Amendment which reads in part, “The validity of the public debt of the United States, authorized by law, including debts incurred for payment of pensions and bounties for services in suppressing insurrection or rebellion, shall not be questioned.” The original intent of this portion of the amendment was a reaction to Civil War debts, and it has never been used in modern times. Some legal experts believe that it gives the president authority to exceed the debt limit on his own, but should it be invoked, it will surely end up before the courts and that process could lead to a long period of uncertainty which would be nearly as disastrous to the economy.
What is certain is that no one knows exactly how this will be resolved. Current proposals include a few months extension for more negotiations, but personally, I do not see how the situation will change by then. The simplest answer is to raise the debt ceiling with a “clean” bill (no amendments or poison pills attached) and then do as the government should do — negotiate separate budget and appropriations bills.
But then when was the last time that things unfolded as they should?
The Constitution Is Not A “Terms of Service” Agreement
Posted: April 1, 2023 Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: Donald Trump, Partisan, United States Constitution 1 CommentThursday, the twice impeached, anti-Semitic, racist former president was indicted by a grand jury called together by the Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg. This is the first time in our history that a former President of the United States was indicted. As of this post, the specific charges are unknown, something to remember amidst all the pro-Trump blather about how unjust the indictment is to the former president. A grand jury of ordinary citizens of the state of New York found that sufficient evidence exists to conclude that there is probable cause that a crime (or crimes) was committed. Trump will be given all due legal protections and is presumed innocent until proven guilty by the unanimous vote of a jury of his peers. While historic, this indictment is no different than that of any other citizen in our country. Keep that in mind when listening to the hyperventilating MAGA politicians and their hyperbolic accusations amplified by the court-proven liars on Fox News prime time talk shows..
It is the reaction of the MAGA politicians, probable 2024 presidential candidates and Republican members of the House of Representatives and Senate that really worries me. Obviously, Trump is stronger in his control over the Republican Party than I thought he was, but time will tell whether he keeps control in the coming months. But their reactions, statements and actions show that the majority of national Republican politicians are firmly in the Trumpist camp, even as he threatens “death and destruction” if indicted. I find that dangerous. (The Trump campaign put out an email where six governors, 26 Senators, 64 members of the House including the Speaker, and ten state Attorneys General stated their solid support for Trump following his indictment.) Whether or not Trump continues as the center of attention or ends up as a has-been, Trumpism, MAGAism or what I prefer to call it, authoritarianism, is the bedrock philosophy of many in the current MAGA Republican Party. Let me explain.
Many Republican leaders did not wait to see what the charges against Trump are before protesting his indictment in vile, radical and un-American terms. Their support is unwavering and full-throated. This deep support is for a man that attempted to destroy the Constitution and to stage a coup. (I feel confident that there are more indictments in his future.) No Americans who call themselves true Americans should in any way, shape or form support a coup. They took an oath to the Constitution, not to one man. Unfortunately, too many politicians seem to equate their oath of office “to support and defend” the Constitution with that of the terms of service on an electronic device app. In their minds, their oath seems to be just another box to be checked in order to get the job. They are cult-like in their loyalty to Trump and his authoritarian ways. Remember that last week the cult members attacked Mr. Bragg for his indictment of Trump when Trump was not even indicted. Trump declared he would be arrested on a certain day and all hell broke loose. He wasn’t. But he did make a pile of money for his so called “legal defense fund.” Apparently, to them, swindling people who can ill afford to pay for the legal fees of an alleged billionaire, when he was not even indicted, is okay. However, upholding the Constitution is only relevant when convenient.
Here is what I am most concerned about, with or without Trump. In a 16 March 2023 campaign video allegedly outlining his national security policies as president, Trump said the following (the transcript and capitalization are courtesy of the campaign):
“We have never been closer to World War III than we are today under Joe Biden. A global conflict between nuclear-armed powers would mean death and destruction on a scale unmatched in human history. It would be nuclear Armageddon. NOTHING is more important than avoiding that nightmare. We will avoid it. But we need new leadership.
Every day this proxy battle in Ukraine continues, we risk global war. We must be absolutely clear that our objective is to IMMEDIATELY have a total cessation of hostilities. All shooting has to stop. This is the central issue. We need PEACE without delay.
In addition, there must also be a complete commitment to dismantling the entire globalist neo-con establishment that is perpetually dragging us into endless wars, pretending to fight for freedom and democracy abroad, while they turn us into a third-world country and a third-world dictatorship right here at home. The State Department, the defense bureaucracy, the intelligence services, and all the rest need to be completely overhauled and reconstituted to fire the Deep Staters and put America First. We have to put America First.
Finally, we have to finish the process we began under my Administration of fundamentally reevaluating NATO’s purpose and NATO’s mission. Our foreign policy establishment keeps trying to pull the world into conflict with a nuclear-armed Russia based on the lie that Russia represents our greatest threat. But the greatest threat to Western Civilization today is not Russia. It’s probably, more than anything else, ourselves and some of the horrible, U.S.A. hating people that represent us. It’s the abolition of our national borders. It’s the failure to police our own cities. It’s the destruction of the rule of law from within. It’s the collapse of the nuclear family and fertility rates, like nobody can believe is happening. It’s the Marxists who would have us become a Godless nation worshipping at the altar of race, and gender, and environment. And it’s the globalist class that has made us totally dependent on China and other foreign countries that basically hate us.
These globalists want to squander all of America’s strength, blood and treasure, chasing monsters and phantoms overseas—while keeping us distracted from the havoc they’re creating right here at home. These forces are doing more damage to America than Russia and China could ever have dreamed. Evicting the sick and corrupt establishment is the monumental task for the next president. And I’m the only one who can do it. I’m the only one that can get the job done. I know exactly what has to be done.”
Scary stuff. American citizens are a greater threat than Russia or China? Dissolve NATO? Allow Russian aggression against Ukraine to stand? Eliminating the Department of State, the defense establishment, the intelligence services and any member of government that does not kneel to Trump? His messianic message is that only he is worthy of leading our country. This is exactly what authoritarianism looks like.
The speech is also full of code words that resonate with white supremacists, Q-Anon believers, neo-Nazis and others that would violently destroy our diverse society. One example is the reference to “the greatest threat to Western Civilization.” This is the same phrase used by the authoritarian leader of Hungary Victor Orban and of indicted war crimes fugitive and child kidnapper Vladimir Putin of Russia. Their view, and those hard core followers of Trump, is that western civilization means preserving a society that is of western European descent, white, Christian, heterosexual and living in a nuclear family where the husband is in charge. If you are black, brown, an immigrant, Jewish, Muslim, Hindu, single parent, LGBTQ, or any of the “others,” then do as many Trumpists have said, “go back where you came from.” They do not want you in America.
Do not think that this speech was a one off. During his campaign rally in Waco Texas last weekend, he doubled down on all of it, almost verbatim, and adding names of people that need to be removed. In a stunt right out of the authoritarian handbook, Trump began the rally with an announcer intoning “Ladies and gentlemen, please rise and place your hand over your heart for…”Justice For All” featuring President Donald J. Trump and the J6 Choir.” He then stood at faux attention with his hand over his heart while the J6 Choir began the Star Spangled Banner interrupted at various times by Trump reciting the Pledge of Allegiance. Thus, he has usurped our national anthem for personal monetization (one can buy the recording on line) and glamorized insurrectionists. The J6 Choir members are convicted insurrectionists and coup plotters serving time in jail. While the song played, giant video screens played recordings of the insurrectionists attacking the capitol. Glorifying violence. Calling for violence. The actions of the rioters are not considered thuggish or criminal. Pay attention to the language. The MAGA believers think that violence is justified, even patriotic. It will only increase as Trump and his lackeys in the Republican Party continue to incite it. All of it shows yet another sign of the authoritarian roots of the MAGA philosophy.
Whatever happens to Trump himself, there are just too many Republican politicians that have unabashedly embraced the tenets of his political movement. The movement’s efforts will to be create chaos, uncertainty and violence in order to sow doubts as to the efficacy of our democratic Republic. The chaos is added to by a refusal to raise the debt limit, by Trump’s speeches and willingness to provoke “death and destruction”, by Congress attempting to interfere with the Judiciary as they are with District Attorney Bragg, by the continued undermining of democracy through the “Big Lie” that the election was stolen, by the refusal to address gun safety legislation, by the apocalyptic language regularly used, and, a big “tell”, as they use the phrase “Biden Regime.” By dehumanizing those not in the cult, romanticizing criminals as “patriots” and using language that sounds like President Biden is a dictator, they are attempting to create a scenario where they and their followers can step in and restore order through an authoritarian leader.
Take these efforts seriously. Those pushing this agenda have no use for the Constitution. It is merely a prop. There are far more good people in these United States that believe in the system and believe in their fellow Americans regardless of race, color, creed, sexual orientation or any other factor. The good guys will win. But only if we pay attention and make our voices heard.
Lying For Profit And Purpose
Posted: March 8, 2023 Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: Dominion Voting Corp, Fox News 2 CommentsThe lying liars that work at Fox News Corporation (FNC) are now the official propaganda arm of the MAGA Republican Party and cater to the party’s autocratic and fascist tendencies for corporate profit and to push lies about the 2020 election (still!) and the attempted coup on 6 January 2021. Too strong of a statement? I think not. This week we saw for ourselves how hypocritical and uncaring about the future of our country the “talent” and corporate leaders at FNC actually are.
In recent days, two sets of supporting documents were released for the Dominion Voting Systems Corporation case suing Fox News and FNC for defamation and asking for 1.6 billion dollars in damages. They are also suing Rudy Giuliani, Sydney Powell, Mike Lindell, Patrick Byrne, One America News Network (OANN), and Newsmax for billions more. (Another voting machine company called Smartmatic is also suing FNC for 2.7 billion dollars along with the other defendants.) The Dominion case is moving through the judicial system as, so far, all attempts by the defendants to have the cases dismissed failed.
The documents released so far clearly show that the leadership at FNC and the on air personalities such as Tucker Carlson, Laura Ingraham, Sean Hannity, Maria Bartiromo, Lou Dobbs and others knew that the falsehoods being spread by Mr. Giuliani and Ms. Powell and the rest were entirely false. Yet, they continued to give them air time and to promote the lie that the election was rigged and that Trump actually won the election. They purposely tried to undermine the 2020 election results as they feared a loss of profits from a Fox viewership that was turning to other sources of right wing conspiracy stories because Fox announced Joe Biden as the winner. (Isn’t it ironic that they lost viewers by telling the truth?)
Under the terms set by the Supreme Court decision in New York Times vs Sullivan, there is a very high bar required to prove defamation or libel by a news organization. Because of the First Amendment, the court ruled in that 1964 case that the plaintiff must show that “the defendant knew that a statement was false or was reckless in deciding to publish the information without investigating whether the information was accurate.” Over the years, this ruling has protected many news organizations from lawsuits. In the Dominion case, judges have so far ruled that there is sufficient evidence in the case to move to trial because it may be possible that FNC knew what they were doing was wrong, but they did it anyway. I am not an attorney, but to me the emails, texts, and memos revealed so far clearly show that everyone involved knew exactly what they were doing and deliberately and with malice of forethought went ahead and spread lies as though they were facts.
It gets worse.
Knowing full well what was happening in the Dominion case, and that many Fox News personalities were liars, the Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy (MAGA – CA) none-the-less turned over roughly 44,000 hours of video evidence from the violent attack on the capitol to Tucker Carlson of Fox News. Only to Tucker Carlson. Not to any other news outlet, at all. Unsurprisingly, Mr. Carlson played his selected excerpts from the recordings that purported to show that the rioters and thugs in the building were actually just “sightseers.” He claims that the footage shows that “taken as a whole, the video does not support the claim that January 6 was an insurrection. In fact, it demolishes that claim.” He also claimed that the authorities lied about the death of Capitol Police Officer Brian Sicknick, a particularly callous and shameful statement. In other words, all of us that saw what was happening, live and in color, as it happened, are all victims of yet another big lie. Or as Trump once said, “What you’re seeing and what you’re reading is not what’s happening.” Only people like Trump, Green, Boebert, Gaetz and Carlson are truth tellers, otherwise it’s all “fake.” Thankfully, many Senate Republicans, along with all Democrats, condemned the selected release of the tapes and reiterated that it was a full blown attack on the capitol by insurrectionists. Unfortunately, in the heart of MAGA country — the House Republican caucus — there was no such condemnation. In fact, there was celebration in some corners that now the “truth” is out. They claim the insurrectionists are actually patriots being held as “political prisoners” by a corrupt government.
Why do I bring this up? Because to me it is terrifying. I may be able to call Tucker Carlson a liar and understand his devious motives, but millions of others take him at face value. He is purposely poisoning the well of facts, truth, and trust in order to undermine our democracy. Oh, and to make a profit while doing so. Despicable. Why poison the well? Because he, and those like him, do not believe in a democracy where everyone has the right to vote and a voice in choosing the direction our country should go. Mr. Carlson’s favorite leader is Victor Orban, the Prime Minister of Hungary. Why? Because Mr. Orban is anti-immigrant, anti-LGBTQ, anti-free press, and believes that the white Christian culture of Europe is being destroyed by “outsiders” and must be “saved.” He is creating an autocratic state where his is the only voice that matters.
It gets worse.
Last weekend at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) — a long standing conference that used to be about discussing conservative values and policies and ideas, but now is a MAGA rally — Trump took it over as a coronation of his future presidency. In a nearly two hour rambling mess of a speech, Trump laid out the reasons he should be elected president. While I happen to believe that he is becoming less and less a factor in politics, he is not irrelevant. And his supporters are becoming ever more rabid. That makes him dangerous.
In his speech he said these ominous lines, “If you put me back in the White House, their reign will be over and they know it. America will be a free nation once again. We are not a free nation right now. We don’t have a free press or a free anything right now. In 2016 I declared I am your voice. Today I add that I am your warrior, I am your justice. And for those who have been wronged, and betrayed, I am your retribution. I am your retribution. I will totally obliterate the deep state.”
Fascism, here we come. “Retribution?” Sounds like he is claiming that he will rule with an iron fist. Recall that he called for the “termination” of the Constitution.
What do we have when we put this all together? Danger. The MAGA crowd in Congress, some state legislatures, some governors, “news” outlets, and the dark reaches of the web all believe that they must “rescue” our country. The threats of violence are barely disguised. The propaganda machine at FNC continues to pump out lies. And on and on in various forms. For those not paying attention, the anti-democratic voices are getting louder and stronger.
Why? To sow division, hate, fear and confusion. Once people think that they cannot trust any government or elected official, any news organization or any other citizen outside of their tribe, the door is open for the autocrats and fascist leaning elements of our society to step in and impose their own view of the future. Believe me, most of us reading this piece are not in their plans.
We have to care or they win. No more “whataboutism” or “both sides” or “I don’t read the paper or watch the news anymore because it is too upsetting.” That is what they are counting on. The aim is to wear people down to the point that they stop paying attention. Do not let it happen. Pay attention. Vote. Let your voice be heard.
By nature I am an optimist. I think our democracy will survive, after all we survived the Civil War. But it won’t survive on its own. I worry that the attack on 6 January was a dress rehearsal. I worry about political violence, as does FBI Director Wray who is on record that the number one threat to our society is domestic political terrorism — and most of it comes from the hard right. When Trump talks of “retribution” he is using a thinly disguised reference to violence. When MAGA Republican members of Congress wear AR-15 lapel pins on the House floor, they are silently implying violence. There are signs everywhere.
Be careful out there.
Tom
Into The Fray 
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