Mad King Donnie Disrupts The World

On Tuesday, Trump claimed that in accordance with an announced cease-fire with Iran that the Strait of Hormuz is open. On Thursday, officials from the United Arab Emirates (UAE) stated that “the Strait of Hormuz is not open. Access is being restricted, conditioned and controlled” by Iran. The map shows how Iran is rerouting shipping so that it can pass within the firing range of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards so that they can shake down the shippers for cash. From CNBC (AFP/Getty Images)

On one level, all of us should be thankful that Trump pulled his TACO routine (Trump Always Chickens Out) after posting on social media Tuesday morning, directed at Iran and its population of 93 million men, women and children that “A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again.” That is what scholars, pundits and most of the public call genocide. From the President of the United States. Speaking to the world in our name. The reaction from his fellow Republicans? Nothing. No accountability. No responsibility. No consequences. This not okay. This is beyond shameful and is sufficient cause for getting rid of the whole lot of them. Our Constitution is soiled and our system of government is broken. Clearly the president is deranged. It is no longer a slogan or an exaggeration or any other mitigating definition. He is just plain crazy and he controls nuclear weapons. Two things are clear from his statement. First and foremost he has no moral compass, code of ethics or empathy for any human besides himself. Second, he clearly thinks he can do whatever he wants without restraint from anybody or any organization. If he wants it, he will order it, and expect it to be carried out. This should scare all of us right to our core. Thank goodness he chickened out. But let’s look deeper.

One hour before his stated deadline for Iran to end the war and open the Strait of Hormuz, Pakistani Prime Minister Sharif offered up a fig leaf to provide an exit ramp from doomsday. Both Trump and Iran accepted a two week ceasefire to allow diplomatic efforts to continue towards a more lasting settlement. In doing so, Trump said that the Iranian ten point plan for a negotiated settlement was a “workable basis on which to negotiate.” Iran took that literally, always dangerous when dealing with Trump. It appears that Trump probably did not know what was in the Iranian proposal. Here are the points in the plan:

1. Cessation of the war on Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen.
2. Cessation of the war in Iran with no time limit.
3. Ending all conflicts in the region.
4. Reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
5. Establishing a protocol and conditions to ensure freedom and security of navigation in the Strait.
6. Full payment of war reparations to Iran.
7. Lifting sanctions on Iran.
8. Release of the Iranian frozen assets held by the United States.
9. Iran commits to not seeking possession of any nuclear weapons.
10. Immediate ceasefire on all fronts upon the ceasefire announcement.

Looks a lot like Iran got nearly everything that they wanted. After scathing criticism stating that fact, Trump retreated. Now the administration is claiming that this is not the plan, instead there is a “secret” plan that they cannot reveal. If you believe that, you probably have a degree from Trump University.

For forty-seven years Iran has been the leading exporter of terrorism. There are no tears shed for the regime, its military or any of the other suppressors of the Iranian people. Iranians — Persians — have a long and storied history and culture. We will all rejoice when they rejoin the nations of the world as a stable, productive and welcomed member of society. This assault did not achieve that but it did make life worse for the average citizen of the country.

Israel, of course, is not honoring the ceasefire, whatever form it may be in. They continue to bomb Lebanon claiming that that war is different than the one on Iran. Iran refuses to fully open the the Strait until the Israelis stop their bombing. In short, it is a very confusing situation as I write. We do know, that for now, the United States has ceased attacking targets in Iran. That is about the only thing that is for sure. Oh, and Trump and his minions are claiming a “historic and overwhelming victory on the battlefield. A capital V military victory” as the former Fox News weekend host and current Secretary of Defense describes it.

The U.S. military did what they were asked to do. They significantly degraded the Iranian military in an overwhelming tactical win. But, strategically? Iran won big time. There is a famous conversation between adversaries in Viet Nam some years after the war. Harry Summers, an American colonel allegedly told a North Vietnamese counterpart, “You know, you never defeated us on the battlefield,” to which the Vietnamese colonel replied, “That may be so, but it is also irrelevant.” History is replete with examples of similar tactical losses leading to strategic victory. One can argue our most recent example was the U.S. involvement in Afghanistan.

Here is some of what Trump expected from Iran for our war of choice to cease and the assault on Iran to end. First, he called on the Iranian people to rise up and take control of their government. Then he simplified that to “regime change.” Then he called for “the complete and unconditional surrender” of the nation. Then it was to destroy Iranian stockpiles of enriched uranium. Then it was to prevent Iran from building a nuclear weapon. Then it was to keep their proxies (Hezbollah and the Houthis) from participating in the war. Then I lost track, but they ended with opening the Strait of Hormuz — which I will gently remind everyone was open to free navigation prior to the war. None of these objectives were achieved. In fact, in some ways, Iran is in better shape now. They have an even more entrenched and radical regime in control of the country. Sanctions have been lifted so Iran is making lots of money with oil prices so high. Iran is charging tolls for the use of the Strait of Hormuz — more money to the regime to rearm and rebuild, especially as Russia has openly supported Iran and reports indicate that China has been helping them as well.

(Distracting Note: Were I conspiracy theorist, I might opine that the entire reason for Operation Epic Fury was to help Vladimir Putin and Russia. Sanctions against Russia are lifted, allowing for them to purchase more weapons for use against Ukraine. Weapons and ammunition destined for Ukraine was diverted to the U.S. attack on Iran. Russia supplied targeting information on U.S. forces to Iran. Trump has all but broken NATO. He viciously denigrates our closest allies and even said this week that “I was never swayed by NATO. I always knew they were a paper tiger, and Putin knows that too, by the way.”)

The war claimed thirteen American lives, with close to four hundred wounded. The cost — to date — is roughly 40 billion dollars. We have depleted stocks of weapons and ammunition that will take years to replace, especially high cost missiles and aircraft. (We know the U.S. has lost four F-15E [fighters], 1 A-10 [ground attack], 1 E-3 [AWACS], 2 KC-135 [tankers], 2 C-130 [special operations configured transports], 17 MQ-9 [sophisticated drones], 1 MH-6 [specialized little helicopter] and there are rumors of additional helicopters lost.) Thousands of civilians killed in Iran, Lebanon, Israel and around the Persian Gulf. Oil prices soaring impacting the world’s economy. And more. For what?

Are we better off than we were six weeks ago? Strategically, Iran is. We look weak, chaotic, unhinged and untrustworthy as the world wonders where Trump will next declare “the end of civilization” is at hand. Trump is attempting to end this war in the same manner he ends everything. Create a crisis, claim to be fixing it, and then walk away when it gets too hard and pronounce that its not his problem, someone else will have to clean it up.

This is not the end of our nightmare. It is only the beginning.