Peace Or No Peace?
Posted: June 25, 2025 Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: B-2 Bombers, Battle Damage Assessment, Congress, Defense Intelligence Agency, IAEA, Iran, Israel, Middle East, Politics, US Intelligence Community, War Powers Act 1 CommentIn many situations, two things can be true at the same time. Looking at the events unfolding over the last two weeks in the Middle East demonstrates how this premise applies.
Last Saturday, the United States bombed three locations in Iran that were known to be associated with Iran’s nuclear weapons program. The ability to strike with lethality and accuracy anywhere in the world was aptly demonstrated by the attacks on Fordo, Natanz, and Isfahan in Iran. 125 military aircraft were involved including refueling tankers, escort fighters and seven B-2 stealth bombers that dropped fourteen GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators (MOP) or “bunker busters” on targets. At the same time, U.S. Navy submarines launched about thirty precision guided Tomahawk missiles at Isfahan. No aircraft were lost. No Americans were killed or wounded. By every standard, there is no doubt that the American military pulled off a wildly successful surprise attack on their assigned targets. We should all be proud of their skill, persistence, fortitude and valor. It was a tactical success in every way. However, was the mission accomplished? Were the Iranian nuclear facilities destroyed and their nuclear weapons program halted or at least delayed for many years?
We do not know.
The president announced within hours of the attack that the Iranian facilities were “obliterated.” There is no way he could know that. Many in his cabinet use the same or similar words to continue to describe the success of the mission. They revile anyone that questions their conclusion by calling them un-American and disrespectful to the courageous airmen and sailors that conducted the attack. As is usually the case with this administration, they are more concerned with the drama and self-congratulations than they are with the facts, with which they often only have a passing familiarity.
General Dan Caine, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff (CJCS) is more cautious, professional and deliberate in his descriptions. Until a complete account of the Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) can be made, we simply do not know the extent of the damage or even whether the targets of the bombing — enriched uranium and the centrifuges used to make it — were at the sites that we attacked. The attack was successful — bombs on target and everyone came home — but we do not know if the mission was successful — no more Iranian nuclear program. The only way to be absolutely sure is to inspect the sites on the ground. That is not going to happen. The bombing certainly crushed any hope of a short term resumption of discussions to allow inspectors, such as from the International Atomic Energy Association (IAEA) into the area. U.S. inspectors will not be able to go there, either. Of course there are numerous other ways to feel fairly confident of the results. Spies on the ground (it appears that the Israelis had numerous people in key places prior to their own attacks), intercepts of Iranian military and government communications discussing the damage that was caused and assessing their own ability to respond to the attack and other elements of intelligence trade craft that can give a fairly robust picture of what happened. That can take days or weeks before the Intelligence Community (IC) can say with confidence that they have a comfortable assessment.
With that in mind, the revelation yesterday on CNN, and soon widely reported elsewhere, that the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), the intelligence agency for the Pentagon, assesses that the Iranian nuclear program was only set back about three to six months rather than years or being “obliterated”. That report caused quite the uproar. For those reading the fine print, the DIA assessment was a preliminary report of “low confidence.” Such reports are often issued soon after an operation to give decisionmakers an outline of what may be needed in the near term should follow up actions be necessary.
There have been rumors/reports that the Iranians moved significant quantities of enriched uranium and centrifuges before the attack. It is thought to be enough to keep their program going. Similarly, although the Israelis killed several top Iranian nuclear scientists in their sleep, they cannot kill everyone and they cannot kill the knowledge of methods and practices that they have learned with their program thus far. Do not discount the possibility that the Iranians are also getting technical assistance, and perhaps even material, from their friends in North Korea and Russia.
Stopping Iran from having a nuclear program is not as easy as launching one bombing attack, no matter how audacious or successful that one attack may be. Wishing it so, shouting it so, demanding that the “scum” in the media stop asking how does the administration know, doesn’t make it go away. Saying that “nothing” can survive fourteen 30,000 pound bombs does not mean it happened. (May I remind everyone that the U.S. Northern Command (NORTHCOM) shares a headquarters with the North American Aerospace Command (NORAD) in Cheyenne Mountain near Colorado Springs Colorado. Completed in 1967, the command and control facility can withstand a nuclear attack. Surely the technology and know-how to build such a complex could be accomplished by other nations sometime in the ensuing 58 years.)
To me, a great big “tell” happened yesterday. The House and Senate were to receive briefings on the Iranian program and Saturday’s attack. When the news broke about the DIA assessment, the briefings were cancelled. One can only surmise that the administration knew that their brief would not hold up under questioning since the audience would be aware of the CNN report.
There are numerous additional questions surrounding the entire state of affairs. Director of National Intelligence (DNI) Tulsi Gabbard testified under oath before Congress that the Iranians did not have the capability to build a nuclear weapon (people also forget that it is not enough to have a nuclear capability — a country must be able to weaponize the material and, often forgotten in the discussions, have a means to deliver it against an adversary. Not an easy task.) Trump said she was “wrong.” Multiple times in the last few days he has made it clear that he does not believe in, or listen to, anyone that tells him something he does not want to hear, regardless of the sources or methods used. This is unbelievably dangerous. Vice President J.D. Vance on Sunday said that the president and his advisers “trust their instincts.” Holy cow. We entrust our security and safety to instincts rather than analysis and facts? I feel better already.
I also have every expectation that political appointees in the IC will start requiring intelligence reports to conform to Trump’s preconceptions or politically expedient explanations. They have already done so while rationalizing the use of the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to round up immigrants. I am sure people will be fired at the DIA after the leak of their report yesterday.
There are, of course, issues surrounding this attack and the War Powers Resolution of 1973 (also called the War Powers Act). Many members of Congress are calling Trump’s decisions un-Constitutional because only Congress can declare war. The Resolution calls for the president to brief Congress within 48 hours of military action if he acts on his own. This administration is ignoring the law. (Again.) Traditionally, the administration briefs the Gang of Eight prior to undertaking operations such as the attack on Iran. They did not brief them. (The Gang of Eight are the leaders in the House and Senate of both political parties along with the Chair and Ranking Member of the House and Senate Intelligence Committees).
In reality, wars are only resolved through negotiations. We will see if the U.S., Israel and Iran can figure out a satisfactory settlement. I am skeptical. A cease-fire is a very tenuous thing. There is a long way to go before anything is settled. Israel still sees Iran as an existential threat and besides wanting to end Iran’s nuclear program they would also like to see the religious zealots ruling Iran disappear — regime change. Iran still has its government and is still determined to erase Israel from existence.
The Iranians responded to the U.S. attack by launching missiles against the U.S. air base near Doha Qatar. It was really just a sound and light show — the Qataris, U.S. and U.K. (at a minimum) were given a heads up and they shot down the incoming missiles with no deaths or injuries. Do not expect that face saving demonstration to be the end of it from the Iranian perspective. The Trump administration thinks in terms of news cycles and then it is on to the next shiny object. The Iranians (Persians) have a long and proud history and consider themselves to be the root of civilization in the region (Arabs are poor nomads with no culture, according to the Iranians). They will be taking the long view and have the patience to wait out their enemies. The only wild card is the internal politics of both Israel and Iran. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu keeps himself in power (and possibly out of jail) by keeping the wars going in Gaza and elsewhere. Will he honor the cease-fire once the U.S. resupplies his military? (At the expense of Ukraine. We only have so much in our stockpiles.) Will the people of Iran leave their government in place or will they rise up and try to install a new generation of leaders? It is still a very volatile situation and will be for quite awhile.
So many questions right now. So few answers.
Corruption Reigns Supreme
Posted: May 22, 2025 Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: Air Force One, Corruption, Donald Trump, Emoluments Act, ODNI, Politics, Qatar, Trump, United States Constitution, US Intelligence Community 1 CommentAs Trump continues to consolidate his reign as king, corruption in every sense of the word is spreading through his administration and it is damaging our country and making us less safe.
The examples are numerous, but this example explains what I mean by making us less safe. Last week, two of the most experienced and knowledgeable people in the intelligence community were fired by the Director of National Intelligence (DNI) Tulsi Gabbard. Her actions explain both why we are less safe and why she got the job despite being woefully unqualified for the position. The combined U.S. intelligence community (IC) consists of eighteen agencies and organizations across the government (FBI, CIA, NSA, DIA, etc.) that support their individual communities but also provide collection and analysis that is aggregated into national assessments that inform the president and other top officials in making their decisions. In February, the IC produced an assessment concluding that the government of Venezuela was not controlling the gang known as Tren de Arugua (TdA) to attack the United States with an “invasion” of gang members to destroy our country. Remember that the Trump administration based their rendition of individuals to the notorious CECOT prison in El Salvador on the Alien Enemies Act of 1789, a war time provision used only three times in our history. The claimed invasion by Venezuela through TdA is the legal basis for the administration’s actions. No invasion, no legal basis. Top officials in the ODNI were directed to redo the assessment to support Trump’s unfounded claims. The IC took another look and provided more information, but repeated their conclusion that TdA was not invading the U.S. at the direction of the Venezuelan government. The top two officials responsible for the final product were fired because they would not cook the books to make Trump look good. This is not just bordering on dangerous, it is a huge klaxon horn of an alarm that no one is safe. How can we expect our security agencies to protect us if the senior officials in our government will only accept assessments and recommendations that fit their preconceived outcomes? Just like the witch in The Wiz proclaims, the directive from above is “don’t you bring me no bad news!” If you do, you are fired. Scores of senior, experienced people through out our national security community are resigning or being fired because they refuse to lie.
The president’s financial corruption is staggering. The Trump family is estimated to have received close to three billion dollars since taking office. I have written in this space before about their crypto coins and meme coins which bring them millions in “handling costs” whether the coins go up or down in value. The peak (depth?) of the corruption knows no bounds. Tonight, the top 220 investors in Trump’s meme coin ($TRUMP coins to be exact) will dine with the president at his club in northern Virginia. They bought about $148 million worth of coins in the contest and over half of the purchasers are from outside the United States. The top 25 “investors” spent about $111 million and will receive a special VIP reception with Trump and each will get a Trump Tourbillon priced at $100,000. The top donor is the China born Justin Sun who spent $18.5 million. He was seen in the Executive Office Building next to the White House today. Oh, yeah. He is also the top investor in the Trump family’s crypto platform World Liberty Financial. Coincidentally, the Security and Exchange Commission paused its investigation into Mr. Sun’s fraud case and is expected to drop it entirely. Just another day in the life of a mob boss.
One more example, if I may, of the extraordinary grift underway by Trump. (One wonders how he has time to run the government and protect our nation since he spends so much time lining his pockets. Oh. Wait. He puts his financial interests ahead of national security. If you doubt it, take a look at his recent trip to the Middle East. Coincidentally, his sons were recently there making billions of dollars in family “deals” — not national deals — with each of the countries that Trump visited.)
By now you no doubt have heard about the Qatar government’s “gift” to Trump of a luxurious 747 airliner to use as Air Force One. (Technically, any airplane of any make or size is Air Force One if the president is on board. It is a call sign used for communicating with air controllers. The Marine helicopter used by the president has a call sign of Marine One.) The New York Times reports that originally, the Qataris were going to sell it to the United States. They had been trying since 2020 to get rid of it because of its cost and limited utility to the Emir. The Air Force has two Boeing 747s on order to replace the existing presidential aircraft. However, they are way behind in the production schedule and may not be available until 2028 when, supposedly, Trump will leave office. He wants something now to keep him ensconced in luxury like an Emir or king — a level he fully expects to receive. (” We’re the United States of America. I believe we should have the most impressive plane.”) The plane was flown to Florida in February and when Trump toured it, he was immediately and fully all in to have it. How it became a $400 million “gift” is unclear. But this week, the Air Force took possession (it has been in San Antonio for weeks already) on behalf of the “American people.” Right. Especially since Trump claims it will go to his presidential library when he leaves office. There are many safety and security issues to be resolved before it can be used. Some experts think it may take years and close to a billion dollars to get it ready — essentially dismantling the aircraft and rebuilding it to military specifications. If nothing else, one must assume that it is riddled with listening and other intelligence collection devices installed by the Qataris and/or other intelligence agencies. Unless, of course, the commander-in-chief over rides the national security and safety experts and uses it regardless of any concerns. As is clear, national security is the least of his worries as long as he is getting rich and being treated like a king. The Constitution? What about it? Just because Article I, section 9 of the Constitution says “No title of Nobility shall be granted by the United States: And no Person holding any Office of Profit or Trust under them, shall, without the Consent of the Congress, accept of any present, Emolument, Office, or Title, of any kind whatever, from any King, Prince, or foreign State” doesn’t mean it applies to Trump. Besides, the Attorney General of the United States said it was legal. She should know because her lobbying firm earned $115,000 a month from the Qatari government.
There is more, but you get the drift, or should I say, grift. Trump thinks he is a king, wants to act like a king, and thinks he should be treated like a king. Personal financial gain outweighs any concern for national security. Congress is a natural barrier to our president taking on the trappings of a monarch but the MAGA faithful fall into line when ordered. Look no further than the House of Representatives passage of the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act.” Yes. That is the actual name of the bill. In sum, it is loaded with off the wall provisions and paves the way to rob the poor (cutting Medicaid and SNAP — food stamps) to pay the rich (more tax breaks for the top individuals and corporations). If you don’t think that it is loaded with disturbing provisions, then why were hearings literally held at one in the morning and the final vote was conducted over night? Sure must be proud of it.
“Corruption is paid by the poor.” — Pope Francis (2014)
This Is Not Normal
Posted: March 13, 2025 Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: Congress, DOGE, Donald Trump, Elon Musk, MAGA Republicans, Oligarchs, Politics, Project 2025, Reductions in Force *RIF), United States Constitution, Vladimir Putin Leave a commentOkay. Time to face up to the facts. We, the citizens of the United States of America are getting screwed. Erstwhile apologists for the 47th president contend that it is “normal” for a new president to bring in his own political appointees to carry out the policies of the new administration. This is true. But let’s not pretend that what is going on in the Trump administration is anywhere close to normal. Besides the fact that many of his cabinet and other Senate approved nominees are unqualified for their jobs, the person making the biggest impact on our government and, indeed, our cherished way of life, is an unelected, unconfirmed South African billionaire that has no idea of how the U.S. government works and has no intention of finding out. Elon Musk and his co-president Trump just do not care about any of it. Under the Trojan horse of eliminating waste, fraud and abuse, they are destroying our federal government resulting in life changing decisions for tens of thousands of Americans and facilitating the possible deaths of tens of thousands more through their drastic cuts to research, science and health programs and the elimination of funding for the basic necessities of life. The secondary and tertiary effects of these decisions include the impact on farmers that had their contracts to supply food programs cut, to the truck drivers and stevedores responsible for getting the supplies to those in need and on and on. The key question is why are they doing this? I’ll get to that below.
With sincere compassion, yesterday Trump opined that he feels “very badly” about those that are losing their jobs, literally overnight, but “many of them don’t work at all. Many of them never showed up to work.” So I guess the lie that the roughly 32,000 federal employees fired (so far) are losers is supposed to make it all okay.
It is hard to define exactly how much alleged waste fraud and abuse has been rescued from government spending so far. Some lies are easy to unravel, others do not make sense but since the data is limited, it is hard to know exactly what is going on. Musk and his DOGE-bros say that they will cut one trillion dollars from the federal budget by the end of the year. The entire federal work force costs about 293 billion dollars or about 4% of the total budget. That includes salaries and benefits. So far DOGE claims to have cut 115 billion dollars. Most experts that are tracking the cuts conclude that is an overestimate by about 80%. For example, they are counting contracts that were already complete or terminated, sometimes as long ago as during the Bush administration, and in one case, they claimed 8 billion dollars in savings until the contractor pointed out that it was really for 8 million. (I’m reminded of Dr, Evil in the Austin Powers movies and the bit about one million vs one billion dollars in ransom. Only this isn’t funny.)
According to the New York Times tracker, so far at least 10,030 people have been fired in agencies scheduled for dismantling, 21,433 probationary employees were let go, along with 428 DEI workers, 33 January 6 coup investigators, 22 government watchdogs (mostly Inspectors General), and 434 other staffers from across the government that came into the crosshairs of Trumpian disdain. Reports claim that the administration wants to eliminate 100,000 employees in the near future. In other words, the chaos we have endured so far is just the beginning.
Maybe the 18 million dollars of taxpayer money Trump spent in his first seven weeks in office to play golf at his own course could have gone to keeping a few park rangers on the job. I do not begrudge presidents having some down time, but really? President Obama often played golf — at the course on Joint Base Andrews just outside of Washington D.C.
All of this is illegal, of course. Not to mention unethical and a direct conflict of interest given Musk’s 38 billion dollars in government contracts (since 2003) and the fact that much of what they are doing is shrouded in secrecy. Under Article I of the Constitution Congress writes the laws that govern our country, including budget authorizations and appropriations. Under Article II, the president executes the duly enacted laws. Mandates from the electorate or not (and in this case not, Trump got less than 50% of the vote not-with-standing his claims), no president can ignore the law and act as his Project 2025 acolytes decree within a “unitary presidency.” To emphasize that point following the attempts by President Richard Nixon to with hold funds for policies with which he disagreed, Congress passed The Impoundment Control Act of 1974 that reiterates Congressional control of government funds. The Act was reinforced in Train v City of New York (1975), a unanimous Supreme Court decision. Indeed, Trump’s first impeachment was based on his impoundment of funds appropriated and authorized to help in the defense of Ukraine.
Today’s Congress, controlled by MAGA Republicans, refuses to exert its authority and instead is letting an unelected billionaire run amok, cutting on a whim whatever he deems “unnecessary,” for fear of the wrath of Trump. They are derelict in their duties and apparently don’t care. In recent meetings between the MAGA Congress and Musk, he told them to call him if they have any questions about what he is doing. He was even so gracious as to give them his phone number. Which, of course, is totally backwards. They should not be asking him to spare their constituents as a favor, they should be delineating what is and what is not acceptable in accordance with already appropriated spending. Congress has conceded their power and responsibilities to one unelected man. The Speaker of the House, second in line to the presidency behind the Vice President wakes up every morning worried that he did not properly respond to something Musk wants. I exaggerate not. This week he is quoted as saying that Musk has the power to “blow the whole thing up” if he doesn’t like or understand a particular action by Congress. As Speaker Johnson explained, “So I spend a lot of time working with all these dials and all these folks, and I just run around all day and make sure everybody’s happy.”
Why are Musk and Trump doing this?
It is hard to know for sure as to what is going on in the scrambled minds of the co-presidents. Their Project 2025 acolytes believe in what they are doing, They are trying to remake the government in their own ideological image of a white Christian nation. I do not think that Trump and Musk care much about that. Their motivation? To me, money.
There are billions and billions of dollars to be had if one has the inside track on government contracts. If the cuts to the Social Security Administration, Department of Veterans Affairs and other agencies and departments make already difficult situations worse, then so much the better. The more dissatisfied the public becomes with these agencies and the more that they are unable to provide the required services, the more the public will clamor for change. And what change would that be, you may ask? Not to make the departments more efficient or productive by upgrading computer systems or hiring more federal workers or even more, supposedly, efficient workers. The answer is to privatize them. Turn them over to the billionaires to run. Turn them into for profit companies that provide the services previously paid for by taxes and instead charge a fee for the service.
Another example is in the dissolution of the Department of Education. Trump and others in his administration continue to extoll the virtues of vouchers for schools. Vouchers mean private schools. Private schools can be for profit schools. There is also the added benefit of being able to decide who does or does not get to go to a particular private school — limited enrollment, you know, to enhance the student-teacher ratio. They can also set their own curriculum, ideological leaning and rules. Taxpayer dollars getting diverted from public schools to private ones, thus over time destroying the public school system? Maybe, But, let the free market reign!
The General Services Administration wants to sell over four hundred properties around the country owned by the federal government, including such buildings as the Justice Department Headquarters, the Social Security Administration Headquarters, and others. Does anyone really think that we do not need centralized offices for administering the government? Of course not. It is a potential scheme. Flood the market with too much real estate, prices drop, billionaires buy up those properties at reduced prices, and then turn around and rent them back to the government at a profit.
All the talk about taking over Greenland, Canada, Ukraine and other seemingly non-sensical ravings? Rare earth minerals and other resources abound. More money! Not for the ordinary Joes, but rather for those billionaires that deserve to reap the benefits because, after all, they are the “Master’s of the Universe” (see the film Bonfires of the Vanities, although in the end it did not work out so well).
Their blueprint may well be the way that the oligarchs took over Russia after the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991. When the centralized economy crashed, there were willing businessmen that saw an opportunity and took it. Buying up formerly state-controlled industries at dirt cheap prices, they parlayed their gains in an “anything goes” atmosphere during the turmoil following the collapse of the Soviet state. During Boris Yeltsin’s time as the country’s president, in order to keep the government afloat, he turned to the now billionaires profiting from their monopolies. In the course of events, they accumulated massive political power along with their wealth. When Vladimir Putin came to office as Yeltsin’s hand picked successor, he made examples of three of these budding oligarchs, either throwing them in jail or forcing them to leave the country. As a result, the remaining oligarchs got the message. In exchange for their continued wealth, they agreed to support Putin, stay out of politics, and share their wealth with him. If you helped Putin, you became rich. If you opposed him, you were exiled, killed or both.
While the United States is not Russia, this same outline could be the game plan for Trump and his billionaire friends. He helps them get rich as long as they keep him in power and make sure that he gets rich alongside of them. We already see that the Department of Justice is dropping cases against criminals that support Trump while going after businesses and high profile individuals that oppose him. Two months into his term, Trump has already made it quite clear that those that support him will benefit and those that oppose him will suffer. With billions, maybe trillions of dollars afloat throughout the government, privatizing agencies that control that money is a huge opportunity for those that play along.
Am I predicting this? No. Can I see that it is possible? Yes. I take solace in the fact that we are not Russia. The United States has a long tradition that no other country in the world has. I have faith that eventually people will catch on to what is happening and work to stop it. Already there are a multitude of challenges to the Trump/Musk administration in the courts. So far, the challengers are winning and Trump is losing. Unfortunately, the wheels of justice turn slowly. While I think that they have a righteous cause that will eventually prevail, in the meantime countless numbers of our citizens will suffer and some will die because they are unable to access the help that they deserve and that our government promised to give them.
Continue to let your elected officials know that you did not sign up for this. We need to keep shouting our dissatisfaction. The self-anointed Masters of the Universe will not prevail.
Anticipatory Obedience
Posted: January 16, 2025 Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: Autocrats, Conformity, Congress, Democracy, MAGA, news, Oligarchs, Politics, Presidential Inauguration, United States Constitution 1 Comment“The first term everybody was fighting me. In this term, everybody wants to be my friend.”
— The President-elect at Mar-a-Lago in December 2024.
Yale professor Timothy Snyder in his 2017 book On Tyranny focused on the United States’ turn towards authoritarianism and tyranny in the context of American politics. Among other issues, he addressed a key factor in authoritarian efforts to take control that he calls “anticipatory obedience.” In essence, it means that individuals and institutions change their behavior in an attempt to conform to what they think the repressive regime will want, conformity that comes without any effort on the authoritarian’s part to demand it. It is a key factor in cementing an autocrat’s rule as well as informing the regime as to what they can get away with. As a result, in many cases the incoming regimes accrue more power more quickly than they thought possible. Many scholars point to current events in Hungary under Victor Orban as illustrative of how to turn a modern democracy into an autocracy. Victor Orban, not coincidentally, is the shining star of the MAGA movement and a personal hero to our next president.
There is a fine line between political reality, lobbying for one’s preferred policies and practicing anticipatory obedience. With any new administration organizations and individuals work to influence the new policies sure to come with the changes in the power dynamic. For example, in the modern era inauguration funds are raised by the party of choice to make a grand event of the days leading to and on the day that power is transferred. It is not unusual for political parties to sell exclusive access or V.I.P. tickets to big donors. This year, the incoming administration has run out of tickets to give out and is still raking in huge donations. According to the New York Times, by early January the current inauguration committee raised over 170 million dollars and is still collecting large donations, despite the fact that there are no V.I.P. tickets still available. That compares to a total of 107 million dollars in 2017. By some calculations the President-elect’s allies since Election Day have raised roughly 250 million dollars for the inauguration, to help promote his policies and to fill his coffers. There are no limits on the amount of any contribution and even although access is now closed to many events, some contributors are still writing one and two million dollar checks. Some of the most famous of the tech-bros have contributed millions in their company names. It is not happening because they really like the guy. Many of those same individuals were attacked during the campaign including threats to throw Mark Zuckerberg of Meta (formerly face book) in jail. He donated a million dollars to the inauguration. Was that enough? Apparently not as Mr. Zuckerberg also did away with fact checking face book posts, moved staff out of “blue” California to “red” Texas and took other measures to ensure that he would be on the good side of the incoming president. All without being asked.
Other examples of anticipatory obedience include the decisions by the billionaire owners of The Washington Post and Los Angeles Times to ignore decades of precedent and to not endorse any candidate for president after they conferred at Mar-a-Lago with the MAGA candidate. (Both papers are said to have endorsements of Vice President Kamala Harris ready to go when they were pulled.) As a result, both newspapers lost senior staff members and lots of subscribers, but they pleased a budding autocrat without being asked.
This week we are seeing numerous examples of anticipatory obedience in Congress. Republican (are there any left?) Senators are about to confirm several totally unqualified candidates to the incoming Cabinet because the Dear Leader wants them. He wants them because they will show absolute fealty to him and not to the Constitution. Does anyone really believe that, for example, Senator Joni Ernst (R-IA) really, truly believes that Pete Hegseth will be an effective Secretary of Defense? Of course not. Most of her colleagues do not think so either but they are afraid of what the MAGA president might do to them politically or even personally. In the process they are giving up one of their most important duties under the Constitution, the duty to provide advice and consent to a president’s Cabinet nominees. While it may be argued that incoming presidents should have the people in the Cabinet that share the same policy views, it is also necessary to entrust our nation to people with a solid understanding and devotion to the Constitution and that are competent in their ability to run their department.
The Speaker of the House Mike Johnson (MAGA – LA) yesterday fired the Republican chairman of the House Intelligence Committee Representative Mike Turner (R – OH). The reason according to many sources (but not according to the Speaker who gave a really lame excuse that it was time for someone else to have a chance) is that a decree came down from Mar-a-Lago to get rid of him. Why? Representative Turner was too bi-partisan and would not always toe the dictated party line. By all accounts, Mr. Turner was a solid Chairman who took his duties seriously and understood the importance of overseeing the intelligence community in a bi-partisan manner. National security is a serious business. An ill thought out policy on education could hurt our country but it is recoverable. A national security mistake could end our existence. Apparently, there will be no serious oversight in the near future.
Other examples abound, and the inauguration is not until Monday 20 January.
I for one, believe that our democracy and the institutions that protect it will be sorely tested in the coming months and years. It is hard to figure out what individual citizens can do to actively protect our republic. Professor Snyder looks at the lessons taught through history — autocrats and dictators whether fascists or communists — and finds the common threads that cause people to allow themselves to be subjugated. In my mind, anticipatory obedience is akin to the old saying “go along to get along.” Expediency and self-preservation take priority over doing what is right. The Silicon Valley tech-bros are the budding oligarchs of the United States. They are hitching their wagons to the incoming president for a reason — they are sure that he will create the conditions to allow them to wield power unobstructed. Elon Musk already thinks he is the leader of our government. He is dabbling in politics in Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom, using his billions and his own platform “X” to influence millions of followers to support far right wing agendas in Europe. Surely he expects the MAGA crowd to push our country hard right. President Biden warned us last night in his farewell speech that “today, an oligarchy is taking shape in America of extreme wealth, power and influence that really threatens our entire democracy, our basic rights and freedom” and he warned of a “tech-industrial complex” of unchecked power over our lives.
Don’t make it easy. As professor Snyder writes, “do not obey in advance.”
Lessons From 2025 – Already!
Posted: January 10, 2025 Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: 6 January Insurrection, Black Lives Matter, Congress, Coup Attempt, Donald Trump, January 6 2020, Jimmy Carter, news, Politics, Trump, United States Constitution Leave a commentWe are only ten days into the new year and already it has been quite the year. So many newsworthy events occurred in a short period of time. From a terrorist attack on New Year’s Day to the apocalyptic fires still raging in Los Angeles, tragedy is marking the start of 2025. I hope it is not a sign of things to come. Today, our future president became a convicted and sentenced felon 34 times over. That has never happened in our history. Sadly, I could go on with other tragic events of the year thus far, but I would rather focus on two instructive events that occurred in Washington D.C. this week.
On January 6, 2025 nothing bad haunted the national news. On that day, the 119th Congress certified the votes of the Electoral College without any histrionics, protests, or riots. The Vice President of the United States in her role as the President of the Senate presided over a dignified, ceremonial, and peaceful evolution leading to the upcoming inauguration of the next President of the United States. The Vice President faithfully fulfilled the Constitutional duties assigned to her and in accordance with her oath of office despite the fact that she lost to the incoming president by about one and a half percentage points in the popular vote. Quite the contrast to four years ago when a president incited a mob to attack the center of our democratic republic in an attempt to keep him in office. There was no peaceful transfer of power four years ago, for the first time in our history. In 2025, civility and the democratic process stand in stark contrast to that dark day and its aftermath. One party believes in the United States, its citizens and the integrity of elections. One party does not.
Some of you may ask why I bring this up. “It’s old news.” “Let’s look to the future and not the past.” “It was all a hoax anyway so drop it.” I bring it up for two reasons. First, we must remember that day and we all must work to prevent anything like that from happening again. Second, I bring it up because the incoming president continues to bring it up. He continues to claim that he won the 2020 election and further insults us by claiming that those that threatened to kill the then Vice President and members of Congress while seriously injuring 140 law enforcement officers (five later died as a direct result of their experiences on that day) are “warriors” or “patriots” or “political hostages” or “victims.” He vows to free them on day one. More than 1500 people were charged with federal crimes. Many were charged with misdemeanors and given probation. About 250 people were convicted at trial. About 1021 pleaded guilty before going to trial. Over 700 of the 1500 (so far) received some jail time. When taken as a whole, one either believes in our elections or you don’t. As as citizen you either believe in our judicial system or you don’t. It is not possible to decide whether it is to your liking or not when accepting the result. One may disagree, but that only means working harder to achieve the desired results the next time. We cannot rewrite history through one party’s propaganda machine. If the future president actually pardons these criminals, especially those convicted of felonies and violent crimes, then he is giving the green light to future political violence in his name. That is why we need to think about what may happen in the coming weeks and months (or days if he keeps his word, but I would never trust him to keep his word on anything). Many try to justify their support for those carrying out the coup by claiming that “no one” was punished for the Black Lives Matter (BLM) protests following the murder of George Floyd. First, no one in the BLM movement was trying to over throw the government and kill the sitting Vice President. Second, such claims are just plain wrong. About 17,000 people were arrested nation wide for their actions during the BLM protests and hundreds received jail time.
The other event that made me stop and ponder the state of our society and our nation was the funeral for the late President Jimmy Carter (he insisted on the “Jimmy” rather than his full name James Earl). The stories, reports and discussions of his legacy varied. I think many people in retrospect think that he was a much better president than he was given credit for at the time. One can debate his policies, successes and failures but I would rather focus on the man. No one that actually knew him — from whatever political persuasion — had an unkind word to say about him. He lived the life he preached. A man of integrity and personal honor. He promised the American people he would never lie to them as president and he did not, even though sometimes his honesty hurt him politically. Few understand what he did for minorities and the poor in our country. Much of what we take for granted today began under his watch. After leaving the presidency he did not give million dollar speeches or sit in a gilded palace or otherwise exploit his position for monetary gain. He did exploit it to help others, knowing that as a former president he had a bully pulpit that few others have, and he tried to use it for the betterment of everyone in the world. Perhaps least known but most extraordinary is that starting in 1986 he began efforts to eliminate the Guinea worm. (The worm is spread through contaminated drinking water. I will not go into the details of what it does to humans here, but feel free to look it up. It takes a terrible toll.) When he started his project there were 3.6 million cases — much of them in Africa. In 2024 there were eleven reported cases world wide.
As I heard the eulogies and listened to the greatness of the man as a human being, I could see the future president of the United States staring into space clearly unable to comprehend that someone could help another human being without expecting anything in return. To the future president, such thoughts and actions were clearly unfathomable and inexplicable. Let’s hope that I am wrong.
Exhaustion Is The Point
Posted: November 13, 2024 Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: Autocracy, Donald Trump, Election 2024, MAGA, news, Politics, Tribunals, Trump, U.S Military, United States Constitution 1 CommentAfter last week’s election results, I thought it appropriate to take a step back, breath in some fresh air, and enjoy the upcoming holidays. After all, the President-elect won’t take office until next year. Plenty of time to worry about our future next year and to make the most of this time of year with family and friends. Unfortunately, I made the mistake of reading a newspaper — a real newspaper, one that is not part of the propaganda arm of the MAGA party. To my dismay, Trump is already putting into place his plans to make himself the Dear Leader.
Most troubling — and a clear signal of his intent — Trump is insisting that he be allowed to appoint cabinet officers, federal judges and other high-ranking officials without Senate confirmation. This is what is meant by a “recess appointment” and it is a clear attempt at busting through any remaining guardrails right out of the gate. Under Article II Section 2 of the Constitution, the Senate is tasked with providing “advice and consent” on foreign treaties and the appointment of “Ambassadors, other public Ministers and Consuls, Judges of the Supreme Court, and all other officers of the United States” not otherwise provided for in the Constitution. To be sure, other presidents have tried to make recess appointments, especially when the Senate is not responsive to their intended appointments, and Article II Section 2, Clause 3 does give a president the power to fill government vacancies on a temporary basis if the Senate is not in session. In recent practice, the Senate theoretically stays in session even when the majority of Senators are absent in order to prevent recess appointments. I am concerned that the upcoming Senate leadership will abdicate their responsibilities as a co-equal branch of government and allow Trump free reign to appoint anyone he wants, whether qualified or not.
Trump’s intent is troubling on two levels. First, he is telling the MAGA majority in the Senate (and as of today, the House) that they must rubber stamp everything that he does. Second, it signals that he may make some appointments that are a step too far even for his MAGA controlled majority. (The recent announcement of Pete Hegseth, a Fox News anchor, as Secretary of Defense (SECDEF) may be the first test of the Senate’s loyalty to Trump.)
Additionally, it appears that Trump is attempting to circumvent the Constitution by creating government departments and “czars” that under the law can only be created and funded by Congress. Here again, given that the MAGA party controls the Congress, he may be contemplating actions that even his most ardent supporters find too extreme. Here is the type of thing to expect. Trump intends to create the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) and give cabinet level authority to Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy to run it. In fact, the DOGE would be more like a commission or outside advisory board that makes recommendations to the White House and the Congress, the branch of government that would have to pass the laws needed to implement the recommendations. (Musk and his cronies are giggling over the acronym DOGE because that is a nod to Musk’s cryptocurrency of choice, dogecoin, the value of which is up 150% since Musk started touting the creation of DOGE. The oligarchs are in charge.) The DOGE charter is to reshape the federal government, significantly decrease the size of the federal work force by eliminating the “deep state” and abolish “unnecessary” government departments.
More good news. The Wall Street Journal reported yesterday that a draft Executive Order floated to Trump would create a tribunal to review the status of all military three and four star admirals and generals. As SECDEF Hegseth would support that effort. It is advertised as firing all of the “woke” officers in the military. What it really means is that Trump and his MAGA supporters in government would expect the military to do whatever — I repeat, whatever — Trump wants. In other words, he expects the military to be loyal to him and not to their oath to support and defend the Constitution. In his first term Trump was continually furious at many of the senior leaders in the Pentagon because they would not do his unconstitutional bidding. He means to fix that little quirk of nearly 250 years of loyalty to the Constitution rather than to one man. In fact, in Trump’s opinion because military members believe in something larger than themselves and even die for it, they are “suckers and losers.” Given that, according to the Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) the president is immune for any actions he takes in his “core” powers, of which Commander-in-Chief is one, he can pretty much do whatever (that word again) he wants as long as he finds people with no morals, or ethics or regard for our institutions. And he has, and will, find many of them.
(Before I could publish this, Trump announced that Matt Gaetz of Florida, under investigation for allegedly having sex parties with underaged girls, is his nominee for Attorney General. Get ready for the purges.)
I am already exhausted by the idea of Trump as president, which is part of the plan. Fear and exhaustion are the tools of autocrats and dictators to keep the population in check and to weed out resistance. Democrats and moderate Republicans are caught in a trap. They believe in the Constitution and our traditions and norms and try to follow the law. MAGA folks do not. So President Biden invites Trump to the White House and promises a smooth and peaceful transition of power to the President-elect, while Trump refused to do either and fomented an attempted coup. The MAGA people expect their opponents to do the right thing so that they can take advantage of it. (I’m still wondering why those ten million illegal immigrants that each voted six times weren’t enough to give Vice President Harris the win. Maybe the Jewish space lasers malfunctioned.)
The pundits, experts and analysts have come up with a list of all the reasons that Vice President Harris lost to the MAGA crowd. Spare me. I blame the weak kneed Republicans that caved to a convicted felon, found liable for sexual assault, who fomented a coup, sold national security secrets, covered up hush money payments to a porn star and still believes that famous men have a right to grab women in the crotch. And those are just the highlights. Trump should never have been a candidate in 2016 and given all that we know after 6 January 2021 he should now be a golf caddy at a minimum security prison rather than president. The Republicans had every chance to put an end to his political career but were too afraid to stop him. History will show that Senator Mitch McConnell (KY) did more to destroy our country than any other single person because he had a desire for power greater than his own moral, ethical and professional misgivings. Shame is a word without relevance in today’s MAGA party.
There are some bright spots to give me hope. On the state level Democrats did surprisingly well even in red states. As a nation we did away with the Articles of Confederation because they were too unwieldly and divisive. Maybe a move back in that direction is in order. I always have and always will believe that your rights and quality of life under a government should not depend on your zip code but in today’s environment I hope that reasonable state governors and legislatures step up and assert themselves to protect their citizens from what is about to happen in Washington D.C. Those states will beacons of light keeping the principles of our democracy alive during a dark period of our history.
The People Have Spoken
Posted: November 6, 2024 Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: 2024 Election, Autocracy, Donald Trump, MAGA, news, Politics, Project 2025, Trump, United States 2 CommentsYesterday the American people chose a new president for the next four years. I have been disappointed by election results in the past, but I have never feared for the future of our democracy like I do now with the election of Donald J. Trump and his mini-me J.D. Vance. I have always been optimistic about people in general and my fellow Americans in particular. That optimism has been shattered. I continue to believe (hope?) that when given a chance, individual Americans will do the right thing for a fellow human being. In the collective, however, my faith in Americans is gone. Apparently, given the results of the vote for president, the majority of Americans only care about looking out for themselves and “getting even” as aggrieved individuals and not about the greater good. Contrary to my previous opinions, as a nation, the majority of us prefer a racist, misogynistic, anti-semitic, egomaniac for president who given his resume could not get a security clearance, enlist in the military, or get hired by any self-respecting corporation. But the American people decided that he should have control of the nuclear launch codes.
There will be much hand-wringing, finger pointing and superficial analysis as to how we ended up here. I’ll let the Monday morning quarterbacks figure all of that out. My first blush opinion is one of two answers. Either the country was not ready for a woman of color as president (indicated by the fact that even in the reddest of states, 9 out of 10 of them had a majority vote to protect women’s reproductive rights and even where a Republican candidate won a Senatorial race they underperformed compared to Trump), or the majority of us wanted an autocrat for president. The truth probably is more complicated than that but the results remain the same. Our country wanted an unstable, mentally ill person as president. There is an old saying that we get the government we deserve. The people have spoken, and here we are. Many of his voters dismissed his most draconian, anti-American proposals as “jokes” or “exaggerations” or believe that the guardrails will keep him from his most dangerous actions. Personally, I think that those folks fooled themselves in order to justify their vote.
As I write, the MAGA party has control of the Senate and a good chance to keep the House of Representatives. If the MAGA party wins the House, there will be no guardrails keeping us on track, given that the Supreme Court has already said that a president is immune from prosecution. A president can only be impeached, which we all know will never happen with a MAGA controlled Congress. Scary.
The sky is not falling today. Or tomorrow. But I fear that a year from now we will be living in an America that none of us can imagine. I hope I am wrong.
My real worry is not that Trump will in fact carry out his “promises made, promises kept” pledge (so many of those promises are blatantly anti-American), but rather I am worried about the people around him who clearly have an agenda. I am not sure Trump even knows how our government works, but Vance and the Project 2025 gang absolutely do. They will meet their goals under Vance before Trump even shows up in the Oval Office about noon for a Big Mac and Diet Coke. Trump will be a willing vessel for anything that benefits him and he will not care much about anything else. Can you say “kleptocracy”? The zealots under Vance with their Project 2025 playbook are chomping at the bit to reshape our democracy to their vision. Robert Kennedy and Elon Musk as cabinet officials? Trump says “yes” and that they can do whatever they want. What could go wrong?
I am profoundly concerned, but I have not given up hope. There are millions of people that feel as I do and I do not think that we will go quietly into the night. It just is not clear to me right now as to the path forward in the darkness. But dawn always follows night.
Tom
Into The Fray 
Recent Comments