Our Alleged “Stable Genius”

Posted: April 29, 2026 | Author: | Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

A Truth Social meme posted, when most of us were asleep, by the President. Of the United States. When I first saw it I thought it was a joke put up by a fake account. Sadly, it is real.

With all of the talk about ballrooms and sea shells on North Carolina beaches and the continued stonewalling about the Epstein files, one may forget that we are still at war with Iran. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed, gas is now averaging $4.23 a gallon nationally, farmers are having trouble finding fertilizer for the planting season and our Commander-in-Chief knows only how to use AI to try and make himself look tough. Emphasis on “try.” Trump thinks that he can bully Iran into giving up its “nuclear dust” (as he calls it, and I’m not really sure what he means but probably he means enriched uranium). This is the very same guy that claimed it was “obliterated” last summer. I could fill several pages in this space recounting all of the lies that he and his administration have told about this war of choice, but since most of them are preposterous and easily debunked, I won’t waste your time. Simply ask yourself if you, and indeed the world, are better off, safer and more financially secure as a result of this war than you were two months ago.

We still do not know what the reason for the attacks on Iran are all about. Our service men and women have performed professionally and with skill. They are tremendous. But what are they risking their lives to do? Tactical brilliance does not translate to strategic success without a well thought out rationale for war with clear goals set at the beginning. Trump and his man servant Hegseth continue to change their story with each passing day and cannot articulate any strategic goals, only tactical successes. Military planning is based on, and in this order, delineating the ends (strategic goal — when do you know you won?), ways (the operational use of force — attack from the air, the sea, direct assault, hit command and control?) and the means (tactical application of force — what armaments and forces are available?). All three must be in alignment.

Currently, we are in a stalemate with Iran. Both the Iranians and the Trump Administration think that they can wait out the other side and that they can force the other guy to give up. Among the many factors that this administration overlooked or underestimated is the steadfast will of the Iranian culture. Couple that with a government that does not answer to the population but is only interested in its own survival, and it gives the Iranians an advantage. They are suffering, without a doubt, but most regional experts assess that they can hold out much longer than expected. The rest of the world is already beginning to suffer and will be experiencing real economic and quality of life hardships in the very near future. It is unclear whether or not our friends and allies (a different topic as Trump works overtime to alienate every single one of them — except his best buddy Putin) can bring pressure to bear for Trump to settle with the Iranians.

As it stands now, and Trump could change it all in the next five minutes with a Truth Social post, the Iranians have offered to reopen the Strait and then come to the negotiating table to discuss other issues, such as what to do about their enriched uranium. In exchange, the U.S. must lift its blockade of Iran. Trump refuses to discuss it and is increasing the strength of the blockade and ordering the seizure of Iranian ships worldwide.

In recent days it became clear that the U.S. and our regional supporters suffered more damage than previously understood. It is estimated that the U.S. suffered about five billion dollars in damages to equipment such as missile defense radars in Qatar, Jordan and UAE, the Navy’s Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain, air bases in Jordan, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia and numerous high end aircraft and drones, to name a few. All of the Gulf state countries plus Jordan suffered damage to their infrastructure and some oil and natural gas facilities. Of course most importantly, human beings were killed and injured including thirteen U.S. service members killed and around three hundred and fifty wounded.

Trump is in a bind. He has lost interest in the war but cannot look weak. If he withdraws U.S. forces without some concessions from the Iranians the world will consider it a defeat. If he stays indefinitely he looks weak because Iran gets stronger everyday and will have survived our best shot and lived to fight another day. Continuing direct combat operations weakens our ability to defend our interests in other hotspots around the world. The U.S. has already used up thousands of cruise missiles and air defense missiles that could take three to five years to replenish. According to the Department of Defense, the war cost us 25 billion dollars to date. Most analysts put the total costs at a much higher level, as much as 65 billion dollars. Today Hegseth testified before Congress that the DOD requested budget for the next fiscal year is 1.5 trillion dollars, a forty-four percent increase over the current budget.

To settle his war of choice, Trump must get serious about the negotiations. Sending two real estate tycoons to negotiate a meaningful settlement is ridiculous, not to mention that the last two times the Iranians met with these same individuals — thinking that they were making meaningful progress — their country was attacked. There can be no “take it or leave it” agreement forced on the Iranians. Bullying will not work — it only makes them more determined. It will take a team of experts and seasoned negotiators to spend a lot of time with great patience to reach a negotiated settlement. Trump should set the process in motion, shut up, and see what happens over time. Pakistan showed that it can be a helpful and effective mediator. Let them try.

In the end, Trump is likely to end up with an agreement that is barely as good as the one that the U.S. negotiated during the Obama Administration that Trump tore up. The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) between Iran and the “P-5+1” (the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council US, UK, France, China, Russia, plus Germany along with the EU) limited Iran’s capability to enrich uranium. The agreement limited the number of Iranian centrifuges, the level of enrichment and the size of their stockpiles. As part of the agreement, intrusive monitoring was conducted by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). In exchange, Iran got some sanctions relief, some frozen assets were released and a timetable for other future provisions. Sanctions remained in place for Iran’s missile program, support for terrorist groups and efforts to improve Iran’s human rights record. It was not perfect but it was working, it was building trust for future agreements, and it kept Iran in relative check. Israel opposed the deal. It took twenty months of detailed negotiations using technical experts as well as diplomatic experts. The negotiations were slow going with ups and downs as each side sounded out the other and built trust. No such expertise accompanied Trump’s recent negotiating teams. I suppose that as a very stable genius he did not need any other experts working on the issues.

Trump is likely to declare victory once the Strait of Hormuz is reopened. The very Strait that was open to free flowing ship traffic before the war. He will continue to make noises about the Iranian nuclear program but will not seriously negotiate a settlement. The wild card in ending the war is Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel. He is determined to turn southern Lebanon into another Gaza strip by destroying it in his fight with Hezbollah. He is also not satisfied with the status quo in Iran. The next step may not be Trump’s to take. Remember that initially Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that the U.S. attacked Iran because Israel was about to do so and since Iran would retaliate, the U.S. decided to strike first. One wonders who has their hand on the wheel driving us to who knows where.

Peace Or No Peace?

Posted: June 25, 2025 | Author: | Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

In many situations, two things can be true at the same time. Looking at the events unfolding over the last two weeks in the Middle East demonstrates how this premise applies.

Last Saturday, the United States bombed three locations in Iran that were known to be associated with Iran’s nuclear weapons program. The ability to strike with lethality and accuracy anywhere in the world was aptly demonstrated by the attacks on Fordo, Natanz, and Isfahan in Iran. 125 military aircraft were involved including refueling tankers, escort fighters and seven B-2 stealth bombers that dropped fourteen GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators (MOP) or “bunker busters” on targets. At the same time, U.S. Navy submarines launched about thirty precision guided Tomahawk missiles at Isfahan. No aircraft were lost. No Americans were killed or wounded. By every standard, there is no doubt that the American military pulled off a wildly successful surprise attack on their assigned targets. We should all be proud of their skill, persistence, fortitude and valor. It was a tactical success in every way. However, was the mission accomplished? Were the Iranian nuclear facilities destroyed and their nuclear weapons program halted or at least delayed for many years?

We do not know.

The president announced within hours of the attack that the Iranian facilities were “obliterated.” There is no way he could know that. Many in his cabinet use the same or similar words to continue to describe the success of the mission. They revile anyone that questions their conclusion by calling them un-American and disrespectful to the courageous airmen and sailors that conducted the attack. As is usually the case with this administration, they are more concerned with the drama and self-congratulations than they are with the facts, with which they often only have a passing familiarity.

General Dan Caine, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff (CJCS) is more cautious, professional and deliberate in his descriptions. Until a complete account of the Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) can be made, we simply do not know the extent of the damage or even whether the targets of the bombing — enriched uranium and the centrifuges used to make it — were at the sites that we attacked. The attack was successful — bombs on target and everyone came home — but we do not know if the mission was successful — no more Iranian nuclear program. The only way to be absolutely sure is to inspect the sites on the ground. That is not going to happen. The bombing certainly crushed any hope of a short term resumption of discussions to allow inspectors, such as from the International Atomic Energy Association (IAEA) into the area. U.S. inspectors will not be able to go there, either. Of course there are numerous other ways to feel fairly confident of the results. Spies on the ground (it appears that the Israelis had numerous people in key places prior to their own attacks), intercepts of Iranian military and government communications discussing the damage that was caused and assessing their own ability to respond to the attack and other elements of intelligence trade craft that can give a fairly robust picture of what happened. That can take days or weeks before the Intelligence Community (IC) can say with confidence that they have a comfortable assessment.

With that in mind, the revelation yesterday on CNN, and soon widely reported elsewhere, that the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), the intelligence agency for the Pentagon, assesses that the Iranian nuclear program was only set back about three to six months rather than years or being “obliterated”. That report caused quite the uproar. For those reading the fine print, the DIA assessment was a preliminary report of “low confidence.” Such reports are often issued soon after an operation to give decisionmakers an outline of what may be needed in the near term should follow up actions be necessary.

There have been rumors/reports that the Iranians moved significant quantities of enriched uranium and centrifuges before the attack. It is thought to be enough to keep their program going. Similarly, although the Israelis killed several top Iranian nuclear scientists in their sleep, they cannot kill everyone and they cannot kill the knowledge of methods and practices that they have learned with their program thus far. Do not discount the possibility that the Iranians are also getting technical assistance, and perhaps even material, from their friends in North Korea and Russia.

Stopping Iran from having a nuclear program is not as easy as launching one bombing attack, no matter how audacious or successful that one attack may be. Wishing it so, shouting it so, demanding that the “scum” in the media stop asking how does the administration know, doesn’t make it go away. Saying that “nothing” can survive fourteen 30,000 pound bombs does not mean it happened. (May I remind everyone that the U.S. Northern Command (NORTHCOM) shares a headquarters with the North American Aerospace Command (NORAD) in Cheyenne Mountain near Colorado Springs Colorado. Completed in 1967, the command and control facility can withstand a nuclear attack. Surely the technology and know-how to build such a complex could be accomplished by other nations sometime in the ensuing 58 years.)

To me, a great big “tell” happened yesterday. The House and Senate were to receive briefings on the Iranian program and Saturday’s attack. When the news broke about the DIA assessment, the briefings were cancelled. One can only surmise that the administration knew that their brief would not hold up under questioning since the audience would be aware of the CNN report.

There are numerous additional questions surrounding the entire state of affairs. Director of National Intelligence (DNI) Tulsi Gabbard testified under oath before Congress that the Iranians did not have the capability to build a nuclear weapon (people also forget that it is not enough to have a nuclear capability — a country must be able to weaponize the material and, often forgotten in the discussions, have a means to deliver it against an adversary. Not an easy task.) Trump said she was “wrong.” Multiple times in the last few days he has made it clear that he does not believe in, or listen to, anyone that tells him something he does not want to hear, regardless of the sources or methods used. This is unbelievably dangerous. Vice President J.D. Vance on Sunday said that the president and his advisers “trust their instincts.” Holy cow. We entrust our security and safety to instincts rather than analysis and facts? I feel better already.

I also have every expectation that political appointees in the IC will start requiring intelligence reports to conform to Trump’s preconceptions or politically expedient explanations. They have already done so while rationalizing the use of the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to round up immigrants. I am sure people will be fired at the DIA after the leak of their report yesterday.

There are, of course, issues surrounding this attack and the War Powers Resolution of 1973 (also called the War Powers Act). Many members of Congress are calling Trump’s decisions un-Constitutional because only Congress can declare war. The Resolution calls for the president to brief Congress within 48 hours of military action if he acts on his own. This administration is ignoring the law. (Again.) Traditionally, the administration briefs the Gang of Eight prior to undertaking operations such as the attack on Iran. They did not brief them. (The Gang of Eight are the leaders in the House and Senate of both political parties along with the Chair and Ranking Member of the House and Senate Intelligence Committees).

In reality, wars are only resolved through negotiations. We will see if the U.S., Israel and Iran can figure out a satisfactory settlement. I am skeptical. A cease-fire is a very tenuous thing. There is a long way to go before anything is settled. Israel still sees Iran as an existential threat and besides wanting to end Iran’s nuclear program they would also like to see the religious zealots ruling Iran disappear — regime change. Iran still has its government and is still determined to erase Israel from existence.

The Iranians responded to the U.S. attack by launching missiles against the U.S. air base near Doha Qatar. It was really just a sound and light show — the Qataris, U.S. and U.K. (at a minimum) were given a heads up and they shot down the incoming missiles with no deaths or injuries. Do not expect that face saving demonstration to be the end of it from the Iranian perspective. The Trump administration thinks in terms of news cycles and then it is on to the next shiny object. The Iranians (Persians) have a long and proud history and consider themselves to be the root of civilization in the region (Arabs are poor nomads with no culture, according to the Iranians). They will be taking the long view and have the patience to wait out their enemies. The only wild card is the internal politics of both Israel and Iran. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu keeps himself in power (and possibly out of jail) by keeping the wars going in Gaza and elsewhere. Will he honor the cease-fire once the U.S. resupplies his military? (At the expense of Ukraine. We only have so much in our stockpiles.) Will the people of Iran leave their government in place or will they rise up and try to install a new generation of leaders? It is still a very volatile situation and will be for quite awhile.

So many questions right now. So few answers.